Summer blockbusters - who will fail, who will prevail?

[Monotreme]

With the Summer movie season upon us, we've got a slew of expensive potential blockbuster movies coming out. Of course, every Summer there's that surprise hit, but that would be impossible to predict now. What we can predict, though, is how successful the high-profile blockbusters will be. Here's a list of the films that I believe have pretty clear potential to be blockbusters:

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Mission: Impossible III
Superman Returns
Poseidon
X-Men: The Last Stand
The Da Vinci Code
Miami Vice
Monster House
Cars
Lady in the Water
Snakes on a Plane

Here are my predictions. What are yours?

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - I think this will be a huge hit. The first one was really successful without anything to back it up. Now, this one has the first film, which has garnered much respect and adoration since it came out, and Johnny Depp, who became a superstar after the first film.
Mission: Impossible III - Hard to guess with this one. Tom Cruise is finding his way on many people's most-hated-person list, and yet, with J.J. Abrams at the helm and the huge appeal of Lost, it might draw people. Besides, it's getting tons of publicity. It'll probably be big, but not huge.
Superman Returns - I really think this has potential to flop. X-Men, Batman and Spider-Man are all superheroes that have appeal, but even among the comic-book-loving world, I can only assume that Superman is considered boring. The originals are very old and not many people will remember them, which could either work as an advantage or a disadvantage. Either way, this film's budget is really overblown, and I think it might fail.
Poseidon - Another potential flop. It lacks any hype, any huge crowd-drawing stars, sounds and looks quite very silly, and I don't think the original film is widely regarded as a fine example of a film begging to be re-made. As with Superman Returns, a really outrageous budget only raise the potential of this film to not be so successful.
X-Men: The Last Stand - Another one that's hard to tell. Sure, business went up between the first and the second, but this film is already garnering lots of negative criticism even before it was released due to the replacement of the previous director, Bryan Singer, with a new one who isn't that known for dark, thrilling, dramatic action movies - at least not very good ones (Brett Rattner). Still, with a large fanbase, this one will probably be moderately successful.
The Da Vinci Code - So many people have read the book, and the studio has managed to create SO much hype for this film, I would be very surprised if it isn't a huge success. It's got everything - based on a widely popular book, a very high-profile, attention-grabbing cast, and tons of pre-release hype.
Miami Vice - Following previous Michael Mann patterns, especially recent ones, I think that this film will perform similar to Collateral - VERY moderately successful, but far from being a huge hit. It might have some extra appeal due to a recent rise in Jamie Foxx's popularity.
Monster House - For the kids. If this film is advertised as "from the makers of The Polar Express", or at least is advertised as similar to that movie, it might draw enough attention. It seems like a very low-concept film, though, and I can't see how it can appeal to that many. Then again, it's being released far enough away from Cars for that film not to hog too much from it, and god knows parents need a nice animated film to take their kids to in the Summer. Will probably be a hit.
Cars - This one has so many things backing it - Pixar, the huge success of The Incredibles, and a flashy advertising campaign. The one drawback is that it is looking to be a far inferior film to Pixar's previous efforts, and if this is true, it might create lots of negative press prior to release. Then again, parents will flock to the nearest theatre with their kids to see ANY high profile animated film that's out at that time, so it'll probably be quite a success, but not as big as The Incredibles or Finding Nemo.
Lady in the Water - M. Night Shyamalan's popularity has severely dropped since The Village was released a couple of years ago, and even that movie was only a moderate success - and it had a VERY flashy advertising campaign and lots of hype. Unless they come up with something incredibly clever with which to sell Lady in the Water, I have a feeling it won't be that big a success at all, especially without a high-profile cast like the one that backed The Village.
Snakes on a Plane - Will probably be the top grossing film of all time. I'm just kidding, of course, but seriously now. Considering the incomprehensible amount of hype this film is creating among the internet community so far ahead of its release, and way before any kind of advertising campaign has been launched for it, this film has a potential of being a hit just due to the huge fanbase it is building so far ahead of its release. Then again, if this hype dies down by the time the film comes out... it will probably flop. Hard to estimate now, though, as it is coming out relatively late in the Summer - August. We'll see how things hold up for it in July, and what kind of advertising campaign the studio is willing to back for it.

What do you guys think will be the hits of the summer, and which movies will fail to impress?

[bucket]

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - WIN
Mission: Impossible III - LOSER
Superman Returns - LOSE
Poseidon - DUNNO
X-Men: The Last Stand - WIN
The Da Vinci Code - WIN
Miami Vice - DUNNO
Monster House - DUNNO
Cars - WIN
Lady in the Water - DUNNO
Snakes on a Plane - LOSE

[dman476]

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - Hard not to be after the first one.
Mission: Impossible III - A success.
Superman Returns - Middle ground, but should be a success.
Poseidon - It's a boat people - have we forgoteen what happened with Titanic. Plus, no love story in this one. How many guys are going to rush out to see this? ;)
X-Men: The Last Stand - Definately win.
The Da Vinci Code - Hard to tell really, but with the massive appeal of the book, it should be a surefire hit.
Miami Vice - Middle ground, but no major hit.
Monster House - Win - but over time, just like Polar Express with WOM
Cars - Win
Lady in the Water - Probably
Snakes on a Plane - WIN!!!

[Cronos]

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - prevail
Mission: Impossible III - prevail
Superman Returns - in the middle
Poseidon - fail
X-Men: The Last Stand - in the middle
The Da Vinci Code - i reckon this will prevail
Miami Vice - fail
Monster House - fail
Cars - in the middle
Lady in the Water - fail
Snakes on a Plane - prevail

[slasherfan]

It's hard to believe the season kicks off Friday Week.

[TylerDurden182]

Pirates- Prevail
Mission Impossible III- Prevail
Superman Returns- In Between
Poseidon- Fail
X-Men- Prevail
Da Vinci Code- Prevail
Miami Vice- Don't really know, but I will definantly be there.
Monster House- Fail
Cars- Prevail
Lady in the Water- In Between
Snakes on a Plane- Prevail

[soda]

This thread looks like fun, here are my picks. I'm going on a simple system, I'm postulating that there are usually more of these things that blow than there are ones that are good, with that in mind:

Pirates of the Caribean 2 - this one depends. It looks like the prime candidate for being a sequel whore, a flimsy sequel to a hit original that was just made to cash in on the original. It might not be a great film, but it will cash in. My pick: yup, this one will make a ton, and totally pass.

MI 3 - I'm sick and tired on Tom Cruise. JJ Abrams is great, but Cruise, yuck. I won't go see this, but plenty of people will. My pick: moderately pass.

Poseidon - I like the concept, I like the creative team, but a flick about a shipwreck? I'm not going to see it. Pick: will do okay.

X3 - I want this to be good, I want this to be great. I just don't think it will be. Prediction: total flop, but I'll still see it first day.

Da Vinci code - great cast, the book is popular, what's to think about? my pick: total home run, pass.

miami vice - know nothing about it my pick: fail.

monster house - see previous comment, will probably do okay. My pick: okay.

cars - homerun, pixar can do no wrong. my pick: pass, home run.

Lady in the water - the village looked like crap, M night shyamalan needs to recapture the magic, and fast. My pick: it will do okay.

snakes on the plane - don't know much about this movie. My pick: will do okay.

Finally
About Superman returns:

Originally posted by Monotreme

Superman Returns - I really think this has potential to flop. X-Men, Batman and Spider-Man are all superheroes that have appeal, but even among the comic-book-loving world, I can only assume that Superman is considered boring. The originals are very old and not many people will remember them, which could either work as an advantage or a disadvantage. Either way, this film's budget is really overblown, and I think it might fail.

Here's a piece of advice: don't speak for comic book fans, unless you are one. Most people I know in the comic book world don't consider Superman boring, there's plenty of cool material out there that would knock someone's socks off. You have a point that the budget is big, and the actors playing supes and lois are untested, that's all true, but Superman has been around for 68 years now, and a lot of other characters have come and gone in that time, but not him. He could have easily been one of them, but he's endured, not because he was first (this industry has no free passes), but because he was the best, he's been thoroughly mis-interpreted and mis-handled over the years, but anyone who thinks it would be hard to make Superman interesting or relevant needs only to look at the world around them. Superman is super, he's the hero who even Spidey looks up in the sky and sees and who has Peter thinking to himself "ah, if only...."

I'm not going to make a prediction on Superman because I want it to be the best, there's to much emotion involved for me to give an accurate reading on this, from my perspective.

[Lazy Boy]

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest -- will be a big hit, despite what looks to be more of the same. Yawn.

Mission: Impossible III -- even though Cruise's antics have annoyed a lot of people, I think what sells the film are the cool as a cucumber trailers, which made this look a hell of a lot better than the first two films.

Superman Returns -- big opening, but may drop heavily in the long run

Poseidon -- flop

X-Men: The Last Stand -- hard to tell, I still don't think this will do as well as the second movie.

The Da Vinci Code -- box office disappointment. All this hype going into it, I don't smell major success, with the exception of fans of the book.

Miami Vice -- will make it to the 60-70 million range, but will be seen as a disappointment

Monster House -- have no idea. Could flop.

Cars -- despite the bad feeling I have about its quality, it will still do extremely well, but probably not as much as The Incredibles.

Lady in the Water -- I predict this will do Unbreakable numbers, won't hit 100 million

Snakes on a Plane -- overhyped by the internet fans, who will go and see it en masse but that won't be enough to make back what the hype entailed.

[Digifruitella]

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - will make a ton.
Mission: Impossible III - will make a lot
Superman Returns - will be the same as Batman Begins, a success.
Poseidon - yeah, it'll make money
X-Men: The Last Stand - Oh yeeeeah, a winner.

X-Men - Domestic Total Gross: $157,299,717
X2 - Domestic Total Gross: $214,949,694

The Da Vinci Code - controversy will be its' success
Miami Vice - will be the same as Collateral.
Monster House - Ice Age 2 proved success, so will this
Cars - biggest movie of the summer, could be.
Lady in the Water - same as The Village, although I don't think it'll make much dough
Snakes on a Plane - well, they're starting to make t-shirt and all, so I say it'll be a winner.

[Lord Raiden]

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest: Looks as boring and as stale as the first one 3 years ago=
Biggest Movie of the Year... 380 million

Mission: Impossible III: Should have a huge opening weekend and will be in the Top 10 for at least a month. Success.

Superman Returns: The only movie I can guarantee that I will go see this summer. It will have a HUGE opening weekend, but PIRATES comes out sooner after, so it will drop. Really don't care how much money it makes, it's the movie I'm looking forward to the most this year and I hope it doesn't disappoint. Success.

Poseidon: Poor man's TITANIC. Floparoni.

X-Men: The Last Stand: Another big opening weekend with a major drop in sales the very next week. I feel a lot of X-MEN fans will be disappointed. Pick 'em...too close to call.

The Da Vinci Code: I'm not sure if the summer is the right time for a movie like this. I think it'll get buried by the blockbusters. Moderate success.

Miami Vice: Not sure. TV-based movies usually have a big weekend and then disappear into obscurity. Flop.

Cars: The wee ones will eat this up for breakfast. Success.

Snakes on a Plane: I smell another big opening weekend and then straight to DVD within a few months. Flop.



Like a buddy of mine likes to say, "the masses are asses" so who knows who will win and lose this summer? We'll see.

[AngelDust06]

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - Prevail
Mission: Impossible III - Prevail
Superman Returns - Prevail
Poseidon - Fail
X-Men: The Last Stand - Prevail
The Da Vinci Code - The #1 Blockbuster
Miami Vice - Prevail
Monster House - Fail
Cars -Prevail
Lady in the Water - Fail
Snakes on a Plane -Fail

[ilovemovies]

Originally posted by Monotreme



Mission: Impossible III - Hard to guess with this one. Tom Cruise is finding his way on many people's most-hated-person list




Oh, please. People were saying the same thing last year before War of the Worlds came out and that was a massive hit. And he was a lot more annoying and in your face with the publicity back then.

I have no doubt that M:I-3 will be a huge hit. And I'm sure we'll get a M:I-4 in a couple of years as well.

[outsyder]

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - Success
Mission: Impossible III - Success
Superman Returns - Success
Poseidon - Failure
X-Men: The Last Stand - Success
The Da Vinci Code - HUGE success
Miami Vice - decent showing, could draw huge numbers if released in late summer
Monster House - ok, but not great
Cars - Success (as if Pixar could do anything less)
Lady in the Water - Failure
Snakes on a Plane - Failure

[Digifruitella]

I find it odd why everybody thinks of Poseidon that way. I think it looks entertaining, loved the original. But you guys are most likely right about this. It'll end up opening big, but will drop in the next week.

[ilovemovies]

I definately think it will be either The Da Vinci Code or Superman Returns on what movie is the number 1 movie of the summer. Defanitely one of those two.

Top 10 of the summer:

1. Superman Returns
2. The Da Vinci Code
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
4. X-Men: The Last Stand
5. Mission: Impossible III
6. The Break Up
7. Lady in the Water (assuming it has good word of mouth)
8. Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby (could be this year's Anchorman)
9. Poseidon
10. Snakes on a Plane


?????:

World Trade Center - could be a big hit but not sure. I think a lot of it will depend on how well United 93 does this weekend. Whether people will go see a movie about 9/11.

I think I may actually be undestimating how well Monster House or Cars. Atleast one of those if not both could do huge business. But for now, this is my prediction for top 10 of this summer at the box office.


Also Fast and the Furious without Paul Walker or Vin Diesel? Flop.

Little Man hopefully will tank huge as well. God, that movie looks like such a horrendous piece of shit!

Nacho Libre looks horrible as well.

[Lazy Boy]

Originally posted by ilovemovies
Little Man hopefully will tank huge as well. God, that movie looks like such a horrendous piece of shit!

They're doing a disservice to it by saying "from the creators of White Chicks."

They're selling it based on that?? Ugh, not a great start...

[DareDevil]

My Early Predictions

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest --- $245,000,000
Mission: Impossible III --- $240,000,000
Superman Returns --- $330,000,000
Poseidon --- $110,000,000
X-Men: The Last Stand --- $238,000,000
The Da Vinci Code --- $170,000,000
Miami Vice --- $189,000,000
Monster House --- $200,000
Cars --- $290,000,000
Lady in the Water --- $115,000,000
Snakes on a Plane ---$80,000,000

I also see these movies doing very well

The Break-Up --- $170,000,000
The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift --- $100,000,000
The Lake House --- $100,000,000
Nacho Libre --- $80,000,00
Click --- $150,000,000
My Super Ex-Girlfriend --- $100,000,000
World Trade Center --- $ 119,000,000
Clerks 2 --- $ 100,000,000

[Mr. Fred Krueger]

Those that doubt the power of Superman Returns, I say don't. Whether or not you think the film looks good, one can not deny the fact that the comic book character has a rather large fan base. The comic book community is looking forward to the film (and it was this community that made Batman Begins such a success), and many people at least remember the first two Superman films (which are the only ones being referenced to anyway).

As for the supposed "overblown" budget, it's B.S. Singer has confirmed that the budget is no where near the ridiculous number that was released not too long ago.

[bigred760]

M:I III I think this movie will do quite well. Whether or not you like Tom Cruise and his offscreen antics, the guy is still the biggest moviestar on the face of the planet. The guy hasn't had a bomb EVER!!! Plus the Mission:Impossible franchise is perfect popcorn movie/summer blockbuster fun. I know I'll be there opening day.


Poseidon I don't think this movie will do much. It's a remake, it's a disaster movie, and it looks an awful lot like The Perfect Storm. Will it make money? Sure, it's a summer blockbuster, but I don't think it'll sweep audiences of their feet.

X3: The Last Stand Of course this movie's going to prevail; with or without Bryan Singer, this movie has kick ass written all over it. It's got an all out mutant vs. mutant fight finale, you've got Jean Grey back, and Wolverine will always kick ass. It'll definitely be on of this summer's biggest blockbusters.

Superman Returns This is a no-brainer. Everybody loves Superman. It may not be everybody's favorite superhero, but still - this is the movie everybody wants to see.

Da Vinci Code I'm still not sold on this one. The book is pretty good, but I don't see how it'll transfer to box office success. Of course, it's hard to doubt the combo of Ron Howard and Tom Hanks.


Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest People are still talking on how kickass Johnny Depp was in the first one and I still think people want to see Capt. Jack Sparrow. It's good fun, a popcorn movie lover's dream, and Kiera Knightley is still hot.

Snakes on a Plane With the buzz surrounding this thing, I don't see how it won't be a box office smash.

Miami Vice I'm just wondering how many fans of the show will want to watch this thing. It doesn't exactly look the 80s show. It's up in the air on whether that will help it or hurt it. It'll do fine, but won't be one of the biggest of the summer.

[ElderPredator]

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - Will kick-ass!
Mission: Impossible III - Will kick start the summer for sure!
Superman Returns - Can you say money?
Poseidon - Might do very well!
X-Men: The Last Stand - Will do phenomenal!
The Da Vinci Code - 10 million book owners = BIG BUCKS!
Miami Vice - Might do pretty well! I'll be seeing it.
Monster House - Not enough marketing for it.
Cars - C'mon, it's a Pixar animation movie, you be the judge. $$$$$$$
Lady in the Water - Couldn't give a shit, hated The Village.
Snakes on a Plane - FUCK YEAH!

[slasherfan]

What about See No Evil? I see that being the biggest summer hit and will make over $400 easily.

[fooknasty]

$400 thousand?

[Lazy Boy]

Everyone better see it.

Or else.

Just don't say the release date, or else you'll be looking at the world with a pirate patch over one eye.

;)

[Ron34]

mission impossible 3 wont fail...trust me!

[Backstabba]

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest : Well, the first one was a big hit, and I'm pretty sure there was a decent fanbase created by it...And it looks like alot of fun, so who knows.

Mission: Impossible III : Looks great, but Cruise is beginning to get on some peoples nerves...I think it'll do good, like 150 million range, but not sure.

Superman Returns : Could go either way, Definate 100 million atleast though.

Poseidon - I honestly think this will be a hit, Probably will pull a "Day After Tomorrow"

X-Men: The Last Stand : ....Hmmm, I think this may do well, most likely, a hit.

The Da Vinci Code : I have the strangest feeling that this will bomb, but, there is a better chance of it being this years "The Passion Of The Christ" in terms of controversy.

Miami Vice : 75 Million.....Watch.

Monster House :......Ugh, NO IDEA.

Cars : A regular Pixar hit, it'll do well.

Lady in the Water -...NOOO IDDEEAA

Snakes on a Plane - ....Huge fanbase, looks fun, I think it'll make 60-80 million.

[HedwigX]

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - WIN- $350m
Mission: Impossible III - WIN - $180m
Superman Returns - WIN- $300m
Poseidon - in the middle- $120m
X-Men: The Last Stand - WIN- $200m
The Da Vinci Code -WIN- $200m
Miami Vice - LOSE- $70m
Monster House - LOSE- $60m
Cars - WIN- $280m
Lady in the Water - in the middle- $100m
Snakes on a Plane - WIN- $150m

[Rick-James]

Pirates of the Caribbean 2 - $350 Million
Superman Returns - $230 million
Cars - $220 Milion
X-Men 3 - $200 Million
The Da Vinci Code - $200 Million
Mission: Impossible 3 - $190 Million

[Raul Duke]

is it just me or is this a weak ass summer?

Poseidon looks horrible.

X-Men looks gay (I'll buy the dvd)

Superman has not hit the marketing trail really yet, but will be huge im sure, even though the budget is close to $300 mill I think.

Miami Vice? I havent heard anyone even talk about it

MI3 will do ok, I actually like the series, and im a LOST fan so JJ makes me wanna see it more

POTC was great, one of the best movies of the past 5 years if you ask me, and i will definately see this and so will the masses. Summer's top movie

Da Vinci Code - I'm one of 3 people who havent read it, but im fascinated by it, and in the minority of people who love this genre, loved National Treasure.

[Badbird]

MI-3 (May 5) - Big hit. $150 - 175 million

Poseidon (May 12) - Surprised many think it will bomb. I think the trailer looks great. A proven director. Hey, I thought Troy would bomb and it wound up a massive hit. This will be big too, but not as big as Troy. $100 + million.

The Da Vinci Code (May 19) - This is a tough call. Everyone thought Cinderella Man would be a sure hit, and it wasn't. I wouldn't be surprised if this follows the same route. Or it could be huge. My guess: $130 million.

Over the Hedge (May 19) - Could also be huge, or a total whiff. The trailers look funny, but there's about 500 cgi animated movies with talking animals this year. Will kids care? Probably. I'll say with absolutely no confidence it will do $125 million.

X3 (May 26) - Opening weekend of $80 - 100 million. $225 million overall. The most sure bet of the summer.

The Break Up (June 2) - Eh? The trailer looks ammusing. $20 million opening weekend, $75-80 overall.

The Omen (June 6 (that's a Tuesday)) - Bomb-tastic! No one will give a shit! $35 million tops.

Cars (June 9) - Looks very mediocre. Could have a huge promotional push and go huge. Probably will. $175 million.

The Fast and the Furious 3 (June 16) - The tank will finally run dry with this one, and America will take the weekend off. May not even open in the top 5. $50 million total.

The Lake House (June 16) - Sandra Bullock and Keanu Reeves together again, sans exploding bus. If it's good, could be a big sleeper. $75 million.

Nacho Libre (June 16) - I honestly don't know. Probably bomb. $30 million, maybe.

Click (June 23) - High concept will probably go over big. $150 Million.

Superman Returns (June 30) - $90 million opening weekend, $215 overall.

Pirates of the Caribbean (July 7) - $100 million opening weekend (making the most succesful 10 day span ever), $300 overall.

Pulse (July 14) - Caught in the wake of Superman/Pirates. Possible sleeper hit - if good. $40 million.

Lady in the Water (July 21) - After getting burned by The Village, business may be slow, but if it's good - $115 million.

Miami Vice (July 28) - Tough call. Most likely a "Heat" like $55 - 65 million, falling victim to the "End of July syndrome" (see also: Tomb Raider 2). People will just be wore out by this point. Too much action can be a bad thing.

Talladega Nights (August 4) - Depends on the marketing, but could go over big like Wedding Crashers did late in last year's summer. Or totally ignored by people who take Nascar very seriously and don't like to see it made fun of. Low end: $60 million. High end: $130 million.

World Trade Center (Ausgust 9) - Not many really heavy dramas this year. People might be hungry for it after three months of fast food entertainment. Or they could totally hate it. If United 93 is big, so will this one. $80 million, with hesitation.

Clerks II (August 18) - Like every Kevin Smith movie, about $25 million.

Snakes on a Place (August 18) - New Line Cinema, and the rest of the world, will find out that people would rather make fun of this movie than actually see it. Bomb. $20 million.

[Monotreme]

Originally posted by Badbird
Poseidon (May 12) - Surprised many think it will bomb. I think the trailer looks great. A proven director. Hey, I thought Troy would bomb and it wound up a massive hit. This will be big too, but not as big as Troy. $100 + million.
Troy wound up a massive hit? I don't know where you get your figures from, but from what I see it was a huge failure. Obviously not a flop, but it made $133 million dollars domestically despite a production budget of $175 million and an advertisement budget of another $50 million. It didn't even nearly make back its budget domestically, and that's what most people would consider a total failure. Sure, it was huge in the foreign box office, but the foreign box office revenues reach the film far more indirectly than the domestic ones do, plus, that budget is not including the foreign advertisement budget, screenings, and all that. And with Poseidon's also monstrous production budget of $150 million, its chances of being a success are even slimmer.

Look at King Kong. If its budget weren't so overblown it's sick ($207 million? that's crazy) it would have been considered a huge hit. Most movies that come out would DREAM of making over $200 million domestic revenue. But King Kong only made a profit of about $10 million domestically, which is far less successful than one would think for a movie that made $218 million. I think too much money is being wasted on movies that don't turn out big enough hits to actually make a profit out of it. Smaller budgeted movies can also be successful, I don't really understand what everybody's wasting all the money on.

[cerealkiller182]

Little Man will be the biggest bomb of all time.

[Monotreme]

Originally posted by cerealkiller182
Little Man will be the biggest bomb of all time.
Will be hard to beat "Heaven's Gate", but I'd like to see them try...

[Badbird]

Originally posted by Monotreme
Troy wound up a massive hit? I don't know where you get your figures from, but from what I see it was a huge failure. Obviously not a flop, but it made $133 million dollars domestically despite a production budget of $175 million and an advertisement budget of another $50 million. It didn't even nearly make back its budget domestically, and that's what most people would consider a total failure. Sure, it was huge in the foreign box office, but the foreign box office revenues reach the film far more indirectly than the domestic ones do, plus, that budget is not including the foreign advertisement budget, screenings, and all that. And with Poseidon's also monstrous production budget of $150 million, its chances of being a success are even slimmer.

I don't care how much a movie cost, and I care even less how much money was spent advertising it. I look at audience response, and getting $133 million for a three hour epic with a downer ending in the most competative month of the year makes it a hit in my eyes.

With a total worldwide take of $500 million dollars, not to mention millions more on DVD sales - yes, Troy is a massive hit that made lots and lots of money. A movie's life doesn't begin and end at the movie theater. It may not have made back it's total cost at US movie theaters, but that's irrelevent. The movie made a lot of money and performed well in all markets. A movie's budget isn't only for what it does in the US - the movie is for the whole world.

Lots of movies barely make their budgets back anymore, but because of the cash machines DVDs have turned out to be, studios don't care unless a movie takes a major hit at the box office. Why else is there little concern about budgets hovering around $150 - 200 million now days?

[slasherfan]

Here's a list of movies' I'll probably see this summer.
Superman Returns
Poseidon
X-Men: The Last Stand
Snakes on a Plane

And here is what I probably won't see
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Mission: Impossible III
The Da Vinci Code
Miami Vice
Monster House
Cars
Lady in the Water

List includes big hollywood movies only.

[bigred760]

Originally posted by Monotreme
Troy wound up a massive hit? I don't know where you get your figures from, but from what I see it was a huge failure. Obviously not a flop, but it made $133 million dollars domestically despite a production budget of $175 million and an advertisement budget of another $50 million. It didn't even nearly make back its budget domestically, and that's what most people would consider a total failure. Sure, it was huge in the foreign box office, but the foreign box office revenues reach the film far more indirectly than the domestic ones do, plus, that budget is not including the foreign advertisement budget, screenings, and all that. And with Poseidon's also monstrous production budget of $150 million, its chances of being a success are even slimmer.

I have to agree with [b]Badbird[/i]; sure, "experts" might consider it a failure, but I bet the production company doesn't after taking a look at the overall box office take. Ten bucks says they couldn't care less what local critics and analyzers say - the movie made money, whether it was dollars or deutsch marks. And yes, DVDs also bring in a chunck o' change as well. I don't know if Troy was a success, but I don't think it was a failure.

[Edie0027]

I am breaking it down in to what I will see and what I won't see- but the success of the film, IMO< obviously has nothing to do with that-- so I will label each as well....

Will See
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest- HUGE success
Mission: Impossible III- medium success (backlash against Cruise will affect numbers)
Superman Returns- success
Monster House - fail
Cars - success (Pixar's history guarantees it)
X-Men: The Last Stand - success
The Da Vinci Code - sucess
Miami Vice - probably fail

Won't See
Poseidon - fail
Lady in the Water - medium success
Snakes on a Plane - success (only b/c of its mass marketing)

[Joshmo]

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - Wins with over $185 mil domestic

Mission: Impossible III - Wins with over $200 mil domestic and an opening weekend of about $60 mil

Superman Returns - Wins with over $200 mil domestic

Poseidon - Average with about $80 - 90 mil

X-Men: The Last Stand - Wins with over $200 mil domestic

The Da Vinci Code - Wins with over $120 mil

Miami Vice - Average about $80 - 90 mil

Monster House - Cant say

Cars - Cant say

Lady in the Water - Average about 80 - 90 mil

Snakes on a Plane - Loses

[Eragon]

Originally posted by slasherfan
What about See No Evil? I see that being the biggest summer hit and will make over $400 easily.
I'm not saying it's a bad movie, (quite the opposite) but $400 million? The highest grossing horror was the Sixth Sense, and that grossed $300 million in America and double that worldwide. There isn't enough coverage on the movie, and it looks sort of the same old thing as other slasher movies. At most, I'd say about $200 million in U.S.

[bigred760]

Originally posted by slasherfan
What about See No Evil? I see that being the biggest summer hit and will make over $400 easily.

$400 million? I doubt Superman Returns will make that much - domestically anyway. I know very little about the movie other than it's a horror movie and that the horror genre rarely tops $100 million.

I hope you were being sarcastic.

[NightStalkerGtx]

Originally posted by bigred760
$400 million? I doubt Superman Returns will make that much - domestically anyway. I know very little about the movie other than it's a horror movie and that the horror genre rarely tops $100 million.

I hope you were being sarcastic.

He was just kidding.

[NightStalkerGtx]

Originally posted by Joshmo
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - Wins with over $185 mil domestic

Mission: Impossible III - Wins with over $200 mil domestic and an opening weekend of about $60 mil

Superman Returns - Wins with over $200 mil domestic

Poseidon - Average with about $80 - 90 mil

X-Men: The Last Stand - Wins with over $200 mil domestic

The Da Vinci Code - Wins with over $120 mil

Miami Vice - Average about $80 - 90 mil

Monster House - Cant say

Cars - Cant say

Lady in the Water - Average about 80 - 90 mil

Snakes on a Plane - Loses

Are you saying that Pirates 2 cant top 200 mil when the first one toped 300 mil, and now it has a huge fanbase and a lot of people eager to see it?!

[m_burlock]

M:I:III--prevail 200 mill

Over the Hedge--prevail 190-220 mill

See No Evil--fail 70 mill

X-Men 3--prevail 300 mill

The Omen--fail 20 mill

Click--prevail 250 mill

Superman Returns--fail 70 mill

Pirates of the Carribean--prevail 300 mill

Pulse--fail 70 mill

Monster House--prevail 200 mill

Barnyard--prevail 250 mill

Miami Vice--prevail 150 mill

Talladega Nights--prevail 100 mill

Clerks 2--fail 50 mill

[bigred760]

Originally posted by m_burlock
Superman Returns--fail 70 mill


Why do you think Superman Returns will fail? I'm betting it makes more than $70 mil its first weekend.

[m_burlock]

Originally posted by bigred760
Why do you think Superman Returns will fail? I'm betting it makes more than $70 mil its first weekend.


It seems to be geared towards die-hard Superman fans=limited appeal. It doesn't look spectacular or action packed. What's his name (the guy who plays Superman) doesn't have an appealing face and doesn't sufficiently resemble the Superman seen in comic books. If I'm not mistaken the film has no big/popular/proven box office draw stars in it. It doesn't look as though it's "hip" or "cool". It looks dated and old fashioned. That's why.

[bigred760]

I agree with you to a certain extent, but Kevin Spacey has a huge following and the movie doesn't exactly need big name stars, in my opinion. It's Superman - arguably the most popular superhero ever. All you need is the 'S', the blue suit and cape, and Lois Lane needing saving and I think droves of people will want to see this thing.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.