Three entries in the 2007 summer race

[rmarti3926]

Optimus Prime, Spider Man and Harry Potter fired the first shots.

Now it's a matter of time when Shrek, John McClane, Jason Bourne, Inspector Lee (Jackie Chan's Rush Hour character), Reed Richards and Co., and of course... Jack Sparrow shows their first movie trailers.

I can't wait to see them.

Your thoughts

[LordSimen]

Something tells me it's going to be a major battle between Parker and Sparrow and Shrek. Harry Potter will come close, and Optomis Prime will probably be just as close... But it's those 3 that have been known for being MAJORY HEAVY HITTERS.

I'm basing this assumption on the fact that those are the 3 sequals to summer movies that have made it onto the top 10 box office hits in history. Spider-man, in fact, has two in the top 10.

[HedwigX]

Harry Potter's also in the Top Ten, remember?

[daddiefatsacks]

i do not think Transformers will make over 150 million

[king_verhoeven]

If you look at the numbers it will be a battle between Jack Sparrow and Shrek. Dead Man's Chest is the all-time number 3 and the improvement Shrek made was IMPRESSIVE. It almost doubled it's inital boxoffice take. If Shrek 3 will do the same it will have a chance to beat Titanic.

Source: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

Although HP and Spidey are big box-office flicks they won't be able to rival Jack and Shrek.

But all this is BO talk and that doesn't really intrest me. Both Shrek 2 and Spidey 2 were pretty bad so I'm not really looking forward towards those flicks although Spidey 3 looks promising.

The flicks that I am intrested in are Jack's return, John's return and Jason's return aka the Return of the three J's.

As far as Transformers go, I loved it as a kid and if Micheal Bay return's the level of the Rock and Armageddon I'll be satisfied. Because this is a movie about BIGASS robots and as long as they give me a lot of action I will be satisfied.

[LordSimen]

Originally posted by HedwigX
Harry Potter's also in the Top Ten, remember?

My mistake, I was referring to the all-time domestic, Harry Potter has no movies on that.

On the all-time worldwide, yes you are correct, in fact Harry Potter has 3 in the top 10 and Shrek only has 1 and Dead Man's Chest is number 3. My mistake, I used the wrong box office numbers.

[Scarfather]

Webster is going to win that tango.

Pirates 3 won't make nearly as much money as 2. Shrek will continue to be shitty and profitable.

Transformers is too stupid to acknowledge.

[DareDevil]

Originally posted by Scarfather
Webster is going to win that tango.

Pirates 3 won't make nearly as much money as 2. Shrek will continue to be shitty and profitable.

Transformers is too stupid to acknowledge.

Agreed, I actually think that with all these CGI animated movies we've been seeing lately that Shrek 3 will not come close to the success of # 2.

I see POTC3 taking the Matrix 3 route and underperforming its high expectations.

I would keep an eye out for FF2, Bourne 3, and the new Ocean's to bring in big numbers next summer.

[cletus66]

Next summer is going to be loaded with sequels. Probably a little too loaded. I have a feeling that some of these movies will end up being pushed back until the fall or next winter. In May Shrek, Sipder Man and POTC all are releasing their third installments. That is three franchises that have had at least one film gross over 400 million. I see little chance of them reaching that level of success with that kind of competion.

My guess Disney will be the one to flinch and push the Pirates movie back to the early July start date of the first two installments. Because if all three start in May there is no way they will hit the 375+ million grosses of their predecessors.

[bigred760]

I don't think anybody's going to be moving released date; at least, not for competition sake. Dead Man's Chest did better than anybody could've expected so I don't think Disney's moving the third one anywhere - but I also think it won't do as well as DMC.

I think the race will be between Shrek 3 and Spider-man 3 - a family-friendly movie vs. a well loved franchise by comic book lovers and movie fans alike. I'll go with Shrek just because I think family friendly movies usually win out (just ask Casino Royale).

I think Transformers will underperform a la Superman Returns and Mission: Impossible 3. It'll make money, enough for a sequel, but will not meet expectations. And I think Harry Potter is becoming a tired franchise; it still has fans, but they're getting older and are starting to move on to other stuff.

[Riddick_neo]

According to me HP series will make the least of its parts, coz it is getting boared from time to time. Spider man, and Pirates will definetly make money but not as the their previous movies did. Even Sherk coulddnt make the magic this time as the audience already getting boared of this animation movies,coz the bulk ani movies release which let the standards of the animation movies.(excluding CARS, rest all bommed at BO).
And the main reason is relasing all the big budget movies so closely will diverse the audience:
Spider man 3 : 330+
Pirates....... 3 : 300+
Shrek 3 : 250+
Transformers :250+
Harry 5 :220+/-

Any way spider man will be the leading coz of the brand it created.

[JackassFan]

I think Spidey will come out on top, with POTC just behind. Shrek 3 and HP will not make as much as expected. And Transformers shouldn't even be considered one of the big movies of next summer.

[LordSimen]

Methinks everyone is underplaying Transformer's gross solely on the fact that Michael Bay is directing it and the posters don't like Michael Bay... But that havn't taken into account that Bay usually performs VERY well. In fact the only time he didn't perform well was with the release of The Island.

His average gross has been around 120mil per movie, around there. Add into the that equation that Bay is adapting the Transformer, a wildly loved childrens cartoon from the 80's that will bring back much nostalgia for anyone who watched the show back then and for anyone who watched the newer ones to this day. That means not only do you have older people, you also have kids. Then add into the fact that it's Bay, and it's an action movie, the teenager market is in the bag. You'd have to be CRAZY to think that Transformers is going to do "horrible" at this point.

[GodMagnus]

I really don't care who does better than what as long as the movies I hope are good end up being good.

I have more movies i want to see next year in the first half than I wanted to see this full year!

while I don't think TMNT will do fantastic, i'm hoping it's still good. As long as Transformers, Spider-man3 and Shrek3 are good, i'll be happy.
I loved both spidery and both shrek films. I LOVED POTC but POTC:DMC really didn't bring me in,not even close in the way spidey and shrek sequels did. Still, I hope the POTC3 is still good, but i'm trying to not get too worked up about it.

Right now my top movies I NEED to see next year is Spider-man 3 and TRANSFORMERS!

[Mystique963]

I'm stoked for TMNT after the trailer was released, don't get me wrong, but I doubt it will make a splash this summer. I don't think it will be a bad movie though.

Maybe i'm a little biased, but I think Potter is going to do better than a lot of you are giving it credit. The HP movies are getting darker and darker along with the book and beginning to appeal to a larger audience. I, personally, am completly over Spiderman and I don't know why they insist on making every movie they can into a trilogy so I'm hoping it doesn't knock everything out again.

I think my two votes at this point are going to be for Pirates and Order of the Phoenix. Spiderman will probably do well though.

[bigred760]

Originally posted by LordSimen
Methinks everyone is underplaying Transformer's gross solely on the fact that Michael Bay is directing it and the posters don't like Michael Bay... But that havn't taken into account that Bay usually performs VERY well. In fact the only time he didn't perform well was with the release of The Island.

His average gross has been around 120mil per movie, around there. Add into the that equation that Bay is adapting the Transformer, a wildly loved childrens cartoon from the 80's that will bring back much nostalgia for anyone who watched the show back then and for anyone who watched the newer ones to this day. That means not only do you have older people, you also have kids. Then add into the fact that it's Bay, and it's an action movie, the teenager market is in the bag. You'd have to be CRAZY to think that Transformers is going to do "horrible" at this point.

Transformers is going to need at least double that average to be considered a hit. Hell, look at PJ's King Kong - it grossed over $200 million but is still considered a disappointment. I don't think it's going to do "horrible," just not as well as the other blockbuster being released that summer.


I just think that since this will be the FIFTH Harry Potter movie; movie-going audiences will be getting a wee bit tired of it. Of course, the franchise fans will flock to it, but I don't think it will be as successful as previous installments.

[EZMOHR]

like playing these games.

So anyway...I think Spider-Man 3 is gonna be the weakest of the big three (Shrek 3, Spider-Man 3, and Pirates 3.) While I think it will be the best of the three movies content wise....I don't know, just watching the trailers there seems to be some kind of wonderment missing from it. It just does not catch me like the trailers from the first two did.

Pirates 3 has the momentum of part 2 going for it. I can see it not going the route of the Matrix movies (ie, bleeding big time between part 2 and 3.)

Shrek 3 is gonna be the big one though. Think about it, this movie will have a shorter running time, more shows a day, kids, adults, and younger people who will go and see it. Plus, adults will take their kids more than once to see it over the summer.

So my guesses on the big three would go something like this....

Shrek 3: $415 Million
Pirates of the Caribbean 3: $390 Million
Spider-Man 3: $300 Million

Now, for the "lesser" movies of the season. Now I'm not saying lesser content wise, I'm just saying while those first three are the equivelant of this years Ohio St, USC, and Michigan feud in College football, these next movies will be the WVU, Rutgers, Notre Dames, and LSU's of this year...good, but not the main course.

Transformers is my most anticipated movie of all time. It is my favorite property, and Transformers opened me up to my sense of pop culture when I was a kid. That being said, this thing does have lower tier blockbuster written all over it. I think it will be better than any Bay movie before...and probabllly after. But, that being said, I say it will make about $180 million when all is said and done.

Next is Live Free or Die Hard. Now, Die Hard one and three are very enjoyable movies, and part 2 is crap on toast. Now, I would love to see this Fourth one, but, it has been 12 YEARS since the last. And, only one Die Hard movie has ever gone over $100 Million. I say this one won't be number 2, and it will peter out at $85 Million in B.O.

And my final movie of the summer 2007 will be Ratatouille. I'll say it now...it will make good box office..........but it will be considered a bomb for Pixar.

I'm not exactly okay with animated movies. I think most ever have really sucked w/ a few exceptions. So, when I say this one looks the WORST animated movie of all time, that is saying something.

Now, I know it is Pixar, and it will probablly prove me wrong...but this looks like an animated movie that should have been made by DreamWorks. It does not look innovative at all. It looks like Over the Hedge in a French resteraunt.

This seems to be the suck movie Pixar needs to get out of it's system. The Pixar movies have been pretty good so far, but in the end, I say Ratatouille makes about $175 million....and is soon forgotten. And for Pixar.....that is a bomb.

[shawn-o]

i hope at least something out grosses titanic cuz thats gotta get outta the number one spot...nothings that great about that movie...excpet for maybe kate's tit shot