Which May Movie Will Bomb This Year?

[Abbie Normal]

Another May, another loaded up month of huge budget blockbusters to start off the summer right. It was not too long ago that only one or two big budget movies were released in May (usually first weekend of May and Memorial Day). Heck as little as 10 years ago in 1998 the two big budget movies were The Mummy and a little movie called Star Wars: The Phantom Menace (and Jake Lloyd who is still hated by most Star Wars fans turns 20 today).

This year we are presented X-Men Origins: Wolverine, Star Trek, Angels and Demons, Night at the Museum II, Terminator Salvation, Up and for you horror fans Drag Me to Hell (give Sam Raimi some props here). That is a lot. The most ever that I can find for a May.

My question is which movie or movies are going to crash and burn and lose lots of money or at least disappoint the producers and studios?

If I were a betting man, I'd be betting on Night at the Museum (why is this not coming out in Dec?) getting hurt badly and I can even see Angels and Demons taking a bit of a hit (The Di Vinci Code did gross $200 mil domestically). I don't know what the costs are for any of these movies, but I am thinking Night is coming in a bit above what Evan Almighty costs and that was the most expensive comedy movie ever. I seriously doubt Night 2 is going to top the first Night ($250) in this competitive market even with the theaters going strong this year. I thought Ben was the king of Dec movies now? The expectations are very high for many of these movies, so it will be very easy to have a bunch of disappointed folks in Hollywood if grosses are not hit.



Here is a list of movies that bombed or did not meet expectation levels with May release dates.

2008: Speed Racer and The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian

2007: This is a stretch, but there was a lot of hype for 28 Weeks Later and ended up doing much less than 28 Days Later. If you want to get technical Shrek 3, Pirates 3 and Spidy 3 all did less than their part 2s and were considered not to meet expectations despite all doing at least $300 mil.

2006: Mission Impossible 3 and Poseidon.

2005: Kingdom of Heaven

2004: Both Van Helsing and Troy did ok, but domestic gross did not meet or exceed costs.

2003: Not one bomb here! Finding Nemo, Bruce Almighty, Matrix Reloaded, The Italian Job and Daddy Day Care all did pretty frigging great. I remember the whole country being under a rain cloud every weekend in May and these movies benefited greatly.

[razgriz21]

My picks are Wolverine and Terminator Salvation.

The producers are trying to hard to broaden the audience which is a bad thing and they should be loyal to the fans.

[robby_d]

Angels and Demons (lack of interest)
Wolverine will also do less then anticipated. X-men 3 was a dissapointment and none of the Wolverine trailers convinced me that this is up to par with X-men II.
DragonBall will bomb big time.

[robby_d]

My picks are Wolverine and Terminator Salvation.

The producers are trying to hard to broaden the audience which is a bad thing and they should be loyal to the fans.
I think Terminator will be huge. A lot bigger then Terminator 3. Because of the wider appeal. At least the last trailer looks amazing and really convinced me.

[Silverload]

Angels and Demons will most likely bomb.

Wolverine will do good. Enough people actually liked X3, and the fans who didn't will support Wolverine despite X3.

T4 and Night at the Museum 2 will hurt each other. T4 will most likely be PG-13 and will attract the 'kids fresh out of school' crowd, especially with its music video trailer. NatM2 will bring in the younger kids & parents both. It will be a tough call between the two.

Star Trek is something I don't see doing too well. I doubt it will bomb, but I don't see it kicking ass either.

Up, well, haven't seen or heard much about it. Could go either way.

Drag Me to Hell won't do great, but doesn't it have a modest budget? There's not even a trailer out yet. I just don't think many people will even know about it by time it comes out.

[Hey Man]

Terminator will not do as expected for two reasons:

1. No Arnold

2. McG sucks ass

[MidnightAngel]

Terminator will not do as expected for two reasons:

1. No Arnold

2. McG sucks ass

You forgot one:

3. It's gonna be rated PG-13. :D

My pics are Night at the Museum 2, Angels and Demons, Drag me to Hell( i hope it doesn't tank)and possibly Terminator Salvation. Up might be the box office winner of may. The new Wolverine movie might do well at the box office even that the film is a prequel and doesn't follow the disastrous sequel fucked up by Bret Ratner. And finally if the new Star Trek film doesn't become the hit Paramount is expecting then it looks that trekkies have finally decided to stop acting like fools dressed as their favorite charactes in conventions and decided to get laid. :p

[DarthWade]

I thought T:S was going to be R after all...unless that's changed.

I think Terminator, Star Trek and Up will do the best because they have the most "general public" appeal. Wolverine should do good.

Out of all of them UP will probably do the best because it's Pixar.

Angels and Demons will probably tank.

[Jig Saw 123]

-Dragonball Evolution
-Angels & Demons
-The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3
-Public Enemies
-Tekken
-Inglourious Basterds
-Sherlock Holmes
-Avatar

[Jig Saw 123]

Terminator will not do as expected for two reasons:

1. No Arnold

2. McG sucks ass

The Arnold fan base is almost no existent and right now I think Christian Bale probably has a bigger one. McG doesn't suck, if your going to judge a director for making movies to try to get his foot in the door than its pretty shallow. We Are Marshall wasn't a bad film and judging from the trailer Terminator Salvation looks better than T3.

[blankpage]

I think it'll be "Angels & Demons".

I also agree with Silverload on "Star Trek". While it probably won't bomb, I can see it doing "Superman Returns" kind of numbers.

I'd say "Night at the Museum 2", but that one was a big hit, so fans of the original could definitely return. Or, it might be this year's "Price Caspian".

[BankaiZaraki]

DragonBall will bomb big time.

Dragonball comes out in April

[BankaiZaraki]

Im expecting Wolvie to gross between 50-60 on opening weekened..Terminator to between 45-55..Star Trek to do 50-60 also..Up to do 30-40..Angels and Demons to do 20-30..and my big surprise is Night At The Museum..That will do 40-50..Drag Me To Hell will do 10-20..Think you guys agree?

[Conz]

As I've said before, Wolverine is gonna do less than Incredible Hulk, and that is considered a disappointment

[fooknasty]

I can see Star Trek bombing big time

[FLAME_ON]

McG doesn't suck, if your going to judge a director for making movies to try to get his foot in the door than its pretty shallow. We Are Marshall wasn't a bad film and judging from the trailer Terminator Salvation looks better than T3.

Wow, Jig... I like your style, I've been trying to say this for a while.

The guy made two campy Charlie's Angels movies--what would you expect? Get over it... He's really trying to build some fucking respect with Terminator Salvation and all he gets is "McGays a fukin doosh!!"
James Cameron's first film was "Piranha Part Two: The Spawning"... He had as much credibility as the director of "Anacondas: The Hunt for the Blood Orchid" before he came out with The Terminator and Aliens.

[g1ng3rsnap9ed]

I certainly hope that Terminator bombs, hate that Series.

Maybe Dragonball as well. That would be funny. :D

[Badbird]

Which ever movie is in the third weekend slot. That seems to be the kiss of death lately (Speed Racer, Poseidon, etc. (MI3 wasn't a bomb at all, it did $150 million)).

I question just how appealing Star Trek will be. It's been over twenty years since there was a Star Trek movie that was a massive hit with the general public. I think a summer release for this is a mistake. Most of the previous Trek movies came out in November.

Same for Night at the Museum. It will probably do okay, but will have stiffer competition in the summer as opposed to a winter release.

If I had to pick one it would be Angels & Demons, and only because the hype surrounding The Da Vinci Code is long gone.

[Abbie Normal]

Which ever movie is in the third weekend slot. That seems to be the kiss of death lately (Speed Racer, Poseidon, etc. (MI3 wasn't a bomb at all, it did $150 million)).

I question just how appealing Star Trek will be. It's been over twenty years since there was a Star Trek movie that was a massive hit with the general public. I think a summer release for this is a mistake. Most of the previous Trek movies came out in November.

Same for Night at the Museum. It will probably do okay, but will have stiffer competition in the summer as opposed to a winter release.

If I had to pick one it would be Angels & Demons, and only because the hype surrounding The Da Vinci Code is long gone.

I can't believe I fucking forgot about BRUNO.
A packed month now grows by one. I have not heard one word or trailer about Bruno. All I remember is the speech he made during the Golden Globes.

Never under estimate Trekkies. These people have had their shit under wraps for years. Americans don't seem to love religion type movies unless there is a lot of blood and torture.

MI3 was not a bomb, but considered a disappointment considering the first one did like $180 and the second was over $215. The cost was $150 and the domestic gross was $134 ($400 worldwide).

[Abbie Normal]

Wow, Jig... I like your style, I've been trying to say this for a while.

The guy made two campy Charlie's Angels movies--what would you expect? Get over it... He's really trying to build some fucking respect with Terminator Salvation and all he gets is "McGays a fukin doosh!!"
James Cameron's first film was "Piranha Part Two: The Spawning"... He had as much credibility as the director of "Anacondas: The Hunt for the Blood Orchid" before he came out with The Terminator and Aliens.

I agree with you two. I just watched the first Charlie's Angels and it was campy, but different and watchable. I like what I see so far from T:4. T:3 sucked.

[Silverload]

McG doesn't suck, if your going to judge a director for making movies to try to get his foot in the door than its pretty shallow.

Thats hilarious considering no filmmaker could have their foot in the door more than McG. He has already directed two mega budget action films, and has been producing major television shows for years. Not to mention he has been a famous big budget music video director longer than Christopher Nolan has been a filmmaker.

James Cameron's first film was "Piranha Part Two: The Spawning"... He had as much credibility as the director of "Anacondas: The Hunt for the Blood Orchid" before he came out with The Terminator and Aliens.

But the truth with that is Cameron didn't direct it. He was fired a week into production and the producer directed it.

[MisterChristian]

I can't believe I fucking forgot about BRUNO.

Bruno got bumped to July 10. FYI.

As for the May "bomb". This year's award will go to: X-Men Origins: Wolverine. Don't think it'll "bomb" though, more like "underperform".

[Hey Man]

The Arnold fan base is almost no existent and right now I think Christian Bale probably has a bigger one. McG doesn't suck, if your going to judge a director for making movies to try to get his foot in the door than its pretty shallow. We Are Marshall wasn't a bad film and judging from the trailer Terminator Salvation looks better than T3.

A Terminator film with Arnold will do better than one without him. T3 sucked om all levels, so that's not really a fair comparison. Hey if McG impresses the hell out of you, that's fine. For me, he is the Renny Harlin of today.

[Hey Man]

Wow, Jig... I like your style, I've been trying to say this for a while.

The guy made two campy Charlie's Angels movies--what would you expect? Get over it... He's really trying to build some fucking respect with Terminator Salvation and all he gets is "McGays a fukin doosh!!"
James Cameron's first film was "Piranha Part Two: The Spawning"... He had as much credibility as the director of "Anacondas: The Hunt for the Blood Orchid" before he came out with The Terminator and Aliens.

You are on crack if you are going to compare the beginnings of James Cameron and fucking McG. Cameron is a brilliant filmmaker, while McG. is an average director that studios like to keep in their rolodex along with Michael Bay and Brett Ratner. Weren't all 3 considered for Superman at one time or another?

[Silverload]

You are on crack if you are going to compare the beginnings of James Cameron and fucking McG. Cameron is a brilliant filmmaker, while McG. is an average director that studios like to keep in their rolodex along with Michael Bay and Brett Ratner. Weren't all 3 considered for Superman at one time or another?

I agree, comparing Cameron's start with McG's start is ridiculous.

McG started filmmaking with years of experience under his belt. Directing music videos is like making short films over & over. And McG had been shooting multi-million dollar budget music videos long before Charlie's Angels. McG went into his first feature film as a seasoned pro. That's why his first feature film was a $100million budget Hollywood film.

Cameron went into Piranha 2 with one $10,000 short film under his belt, and some experience in the special effects department of Roger Corman's studio. Cameron was as green as they come when getting the Piranha 2 gig. He was also naive, and the producer ran right over him and took over the film. Cameron later proved himself by creating an original independent film with The Terminator.

[Hey Man]

I agree, comparing Cameron's start with McG's start is ridiculous.

McG started filmmaking with years of experience under his belt. Directing music videos is like making short films over & over. And McG had been shooting multi-million dollar budget music videos long before Charlie's Angels. McG went into his first feature film as a seasoned pro. That's why his first feature film was a $100million budget Hollywood film.

Cameron went into Piranha 2 with one $10,000 short film under his belt, and some experience in the special effects department of Roger Corman's studio. Cameron was as green as they come when getting the Piranha 2 gig. He was also naive, and the producer ran right over him and took over the film. Cameron later proved himself by creating an original independent film with The Terminator.

Not to mention the fact that no one confuses McG with being a great filmmaker. He does what he does - like Renny Harlin, John McTiernan and Jan De Bont did before him. He represents those directors today.

[Conz]

I have no interest in Bruno, i know it will be hilarious, and call me a homophobe or whatever, but i just cant sit and watch all that flamboyant behavior for an hour and a half, you know it's gonna be completely over the top

[K_Lincourt30]

Terminator will not do as expected for two reasons:

1. No Arnold

2. McG sucks ass

I agree. That is my pick for the "Bomb of May". Especially after Bale showed his true colors cussing out that guy. I personally don't watch movies that have assholes in them (example: TOM CRUISE). Soooo....if Bale wants MY money, then Batman 3 better be awesome, and he needs to lose the diva attitude.

[BankaiZaraki]

I agree. That is my pick for the "Bomb of May". Especially after Bale showed his true colors cussing out that guy. I personally don't watch movies that have assholes in them (example: TOM CRUISE). Soooo....if Bale wants MY money, then Batman 3 better be awesome, and he needs to lose the diva attitude.

WOW..So you're willing to completely ignore a movie just based on one guy's minor misstep..a lil naive dontcha think :rolleyes:

[DarthWade]

I agree. That is my pick for the "Bomb of May". Especially after Bale showed his true colors cussing out that guy. I personally don't watch movies that have assholes in them (example: TOM CRUISE). Soooo....if Bale wants MY money, then Batman 3 better be awesome, and he needs to lose the diva attitude.

Another thing - if you shunned all movies with assholes in them you'd probably have to give up watching movies for the rest of your life. Each film has one.

Bale just got shafted and had his moment exposed to the world.

Lots of celebrities wouldn't talk to you if you were on fire, others give divas a bad name, etc etc.

I bet if the public really knew everything that went on none of us would see anything.

[Frosty_86]

Angels and Demons- Im not sure but I think the core fan base hated the Da Vinci Code and that will hurt this one. And if its comin out in May, I havent seen promotion for it at all. I think this is gonna bomb hard

Star Trek- I think it looks awesome and Im not a huge Star Trek fan, Ive enjoyed some of the movies. I think the movie wont rock the box office because the last few Star Trek movies havent done so well but I think itll do okay but nothing huge.

Wolverine- I think itll underperform but not bomb. I think the stink of X3 will be too fresh in some people's minds to want to go see this.

Terminator: Salvation- I think this one is really gonna depend on the reviews, I think it looks awesome Im gonna see it regardless of reviews. This one is either gonna be a hit or a bomb, Im hoping thatll be the former. I dont think Christian Bale's rant will hurt it, hell his legal problems last year didnt hurt Dark Knight at all

Night At the Museum- Itll do okay with the family crowd but its not gonna have much appeal beyond that, I think Terminator is gonna smash it thats of course if the reviews are good.

[razgriz21]

Drag Me To Hell mainly because Ellen Page is not involved anymore and Sam Raimi is really looking to hit back after Spider-Man 3.

[Jig Saw 123]

A Terminator film with Arnold will do better than one without him. T3 sucked om all levels, so that's not really a fair comparison. Hey if McG impresses the hell out of you, that's fine. For me, he is the Renny Harlin of today.

So the idea of a current A-List actor being in a series that hasn't seen the light of day for over six years will do worst than that of A.S. who no longer had the momentum around his name when Terminator 3 was released. T3 only made $150 with Arnold being in the film, so your saying a movie without him instead with Christian Bale and other bigger co-stars will make less? I'm sorry, but the statistics don't seem to be in your favor. As for McG. I'm not impressed by the man, but to say he's the Renny Harlin of today is going over bored. McG has only directed four, including Terminator, feature-length films. To say the man sucks is like I said before shallow because there are directors that truly suck like Renny Harlin, Uwe Boll, and Brett Ratner.

[Hey Man]

So the idea of a current A-List actor being in a series that hasn't seen the light of day for over six years will do worst than that of A.S. who no longer had the momentum around his name when Terminator 3 was released. T3 only made $150 with Arnold being in the film, so your saying a movie without him instead with Christian Bale and other bigger co-stars will make less? I'm sorry, but the statistics don't seem to be in your favor. As for McG. I'm not impressed by the man, but to say he's the Renny Harlin of today is going over bored. McG has only directed four, including Terminator, feature-length films. To say the man sucks is like I said before shallow because there are directors that truly suck like Renny Harlin, Uwe Boll, and Brett Ratner.

T3 sucked and not having Cameron directing it also hurt the box office. If James Cameron and Arnold came on to do T3 or T4, it would destroy whatever McG and Christian Bale have in store for us.

McG sucks. You also seem to forget that Renny Harlin for a period of time was considered a promising action director with Die Hard 2, Cliffhanger and The Long Kiss Goodnight. He wasn't officially a hack yet. McG is Renny Harlin.

[FireCaptain4]

I certainly hope that Terminator bombs, hate that Series.

Maybe Dragonball as well. That would be funny. :D

You're gonna let one bad entry (thus far) ruin the glory of the first two films for you?!

C'mon, T 1&2 rule on every level.

As far which flicks will bomb, I'm saying Star Trek and Angels & Demons. As said above, the hype surrounding Dan Brown and The Da Vinci Code is exstinguished. I also don't see people flocking to another Trek film, since that franchise hasn't been popular or bankable is quite some time (Insurrection only did moderately in the B.O., and Nemisis f'n bombed). I'd LIKE to see Trek do well, but I highly doubt it.

[K_Lincourt30]

WOW..So you're willing to completely ignore a movie just based on one guy's minor misstep..a lil naive dontcha think :rolleyes:

Well, yeah, I would. Plus, I hate the Terminator films.

[Rukas]

Terminator will not do as expected for two reasons:

1. No Arnold

2. McG sucks ass

1. Arnold is in it, his face is deaged Benjamen Button style and he is doing some voice work. People will go to see if they can pull that off.

2. He doesnt suck as much as a lot of other directors and at the end of the day I doubt the majority of the public care enough to avoid the movie because of him. His only movie that REALLY sucked was the second Charlies Angels.

You forgot one:

3. It's gonna be rated PG-13. :D

3. It is not yet rated. Plus after the Dark Knight proved you an do dark in a PG13 world I dont think the public will be too put off by it. T2 would pass as PG13 nowadays.

[jetsetter]

You are on crack if you are going to compare the beginnings of James Cameron and fucking McG. Cameron is a brilliant filmmaker, while McG. is an average director that studios like to keep in their rolodex along with Michael Bay and Brett Ratner. Weren't all 3 considered for Superman at one time or another?

Hey now, Bay is good at what he does. I've enjoyed most of his films.

[FireCaptain4]

Well, yeah, I would. Plus, I hate the Terminator films.

Wow, where the hell does all this Terminator hate stem from?! :confused:

[Silverload]

3. It is not yet rated. Plus after the Dark Knight proved you an do dark in a PG13 world I dont think the public will be too put off by it. T2 would pass as PG13 nowadays.

TDK was a damn good movie but it still felt every bit like a PG-13 movie with its off screen kills and constant pulling of punches. That didn't bother me because its Batman, but if something like The Terminator pulled that shit I would be pissed.

T2 might not have been as gory as T1, but it was still pretty damn graphic, graphic enough to more than earn an 'R' rating even today (I doubt the MPAA would give a PG-13 rating to a film that shows children bursting into flames before being blown apart).

[Derkesthai]

Wow, where the hell does all this Terminator hate stem from?! :confused:

Please see my earlier posts.

Studio plants to hype T4. I helped do it with TDK, and we were supposed to bash Burton and his Batman films on major forums to lower public opinion on these films.

T2 is often considered unsurpassable, so why would people get excited over a film that can't possible be as good as the previous one? That's our job to knock T2 down a peg or two, so people will expect T4 to be better.

You'll notice that the bashing of Cameron and T2 almost always comes from new members, or at least members who have joined within the last year.

[FireCaptain4]

Please see my earlier posts.

Studio plants to hype T4. I helped do it with TDK, and we were supposed to bash Burton and his Batman films on major forums to lower public opinion on these films.

T2 is often considered unsurpassable, so why would people get excited over a film that can't possible be as good as the previous one? That's our job to knock T2 down a peg or two, so people will expect T4 to be better.

You'll notice that the bashing of Cameron and T2 almost always comes from new members, or at least members who have joined within the last year.

:p;)

Ah, this is my favorite post of the week!

[Bourne101]

I really don't see anything busting out and being HUGE in May. The end of June (Transformers) and July are going to own the box-office.

Wolverine should do pretty well. It's definitely the most popular character from the X-Men films, it's getting plenty of promotion, and it looks decent (though not great). It should do pretty well.

Star Trek is a tough one. I expect it will do quite well, but none of the Star Trek films have exactly been smash hits. The quality of the film will really be a large factor in how it does. It has competition up the ying yang, so if the movie blows, it will probably end up doing disappointing numbers.

I expect Angels & Demons will do pretty well. Maybe not spectacular, but pretty well. The Da Vinci Code came out at nearly exactly the same time of year 3 years ago and kicked some serious ass. I don't think this movie will do as well as that because the source material for Angels & Demons isn't nearly as popular. But people love them some Hanks, and enjoy watching controversial films that religious groups shit their pants over.

Terminator: Salvation is a tough call. Rise of the Machines made $150 million and that was considered shitty. I don't know how much better this can do than that. It doesn't have Arnold, but maybe the PG-13 rating and presence of Christian Bale will make up for that. The trailers have certainly been pretty awesome. I think it will do better than Machines, but like Star Trek, a lot will depend on the quality of the film.

Night at the Museum is in a tough position. It's more of a "Christmas time" release. I still think it will do quite well, but the older crowd that saw the original will probably be busy watching Wolverine, Trek, Demons, and Terminator, while the kiddies will be catching Up just a week later. I think it can have some decent legs and hit up around $200 million, but I have my doubts it will reach the $250 million that the first one made.

I think Up is going to do better business than both Ratatouille and Wall-E. Ratatouille finished with $207 million and Wall-E finished with $224 million. I see Up getting back to the roots of Monsters Inc. and Finding Nemo, making the big bucks instead of low the $200 million area. Up looks more like Monsters Inc. and Finding Nemo in terms of theme and atmosphere. Ratatouille is probably my favorite Pixar film, and although overrated, Wall-E was still great. But those two films lacked the humor and lovable supporting characters that Inc. and Nemo had that had the kiddies coming back for more. Up not only looks fantastic, but it looks more like a film that kids will truly enjoy. The look and style will appeal to the kids, and the dog and funny fat kid are certainly going to appeal to kids. I expect it will make over $250 million.

[poopontheshoes7]

I certainly hope that Terminator bombs, hate that Series.


What!!!??? Say it aint so Gingly! Say it aint so!!!

[ilovemovies]

I think Terminator Salvation is going to be HUGE.

I guess Pixar should never be underestimated but I can't imagine people actually being excited about Up. It looks like it'll be by far Pixar's weakest effort yet. I'm sure it'll still make a lot of money though. I mean, it's freaking Pixar!

The Da Vinci Code was a huge hit. I don't see Angels & Demons doing any differently.

Wolverine will do very well.

How much did Made of Honor make last year? That's probably how Ghosts of Girlfriend's Past will do.


I think Night at the Museum 2 will flop.

And while Star Trek probably won't flop, it'll probably disappoint. I see making around the same amount of money that Mission Impossible 3 made which did alright but was still considered a disappointment.

[FireCaptain4]

What!!!??? Say it aint so Gingly! Say it aint so!!!

I know, I was taken aback as well. Apparently a few peeps hate the franchise as another Schmoe or two said they hate Terminator in this thread. I mean, of all the franchises out there that are a great degree worse (Saw, Friday the 13th, Hellraiser), why hate Terminator? The first two films are classic. Even though Terminator 3 is very weak, it's still nowhere near as bad as, say, Robocop 3 for the Robo series or Jason Goes to Hell for the Friday/Jason series. And "hate" is a strong word. What could make you "hate" Terminator? The Sarah Conner Chronicles, perhaps?! :confused::rolleyes:

[K_Lincourt30]

Wow, where the hell does all this Terminator hate stem from?! :confused:

Terminator doesn't make any sense to me. The movies have no plots, except "kill the kid" or "kill his mom". They get chased, some robot tries to shoot them or blows shit up. Not interesting!

[Cbenz]

Why does everyone think Wolverine will bomb? I think it will make its money back and then some. X-Men 3 is widely considered to be the worst in the trilogy and still made well over 200 million. It may not be the biggest hit ever, but I doubt it will bomb. They love to take credit when a film does well or bombs, but fanboys are not all-powerful. They don't represent a big enough chunk of the population to bring down a character as popular as Wolverine. There are still too many kids taping three pencils to the knuckles of each hand when they get bored in school for a Wolverine movie to fail.

Star Trek will bomb. I have never been interested in Star Trek, but J.J. Abrams involvement has gotten me interested. I doubt that many normal movie goers know who Abrams is, and his involvement will not pull in many new viewers. I'll see it, but I doubt that the general population is really craving more Star Trek. If it does well it will be a slow burn sparked by word of mouth, like Taken.

Termiator will have a big opening weekend, but won't stay on top without good word of mouth. I expect it to do about as well as Watchmen has if it is R rated, and maybe a little better if it is PG-13.

[shawn-o]

i think this may is gonna be a tough month

not saying everything will bomb particularly but i doubt everything will do as exspected...

Angels and Demons might do fairly well idk

[MidnightAngel]

My bet is that Up will be the big winner. Pixar hit very big with Finding Nemo which was released in may.

[Mr.HyDe807]

I'll probably go with Drag Me to Hell and maybe Angels and Demons.

[LordSimen]

I highly doubt that Terminator: Salvation will bomb as there has yet to be a unsuccessful installment in the franchise as far as the box office in take is concerned and if anything history has proven that if the name "Terminator" is in the title, people will watch it. Sarah Conner Chronicles I believe is on it's second season.

On top of that, I've yet to really hear anything negative about it from my non-film fanatic friends based on what they've seen on the trailers.

[sarah1980]

can't pick one that will bomb

but i think the top 3 ones of may will be

1.UP
2.Star Trek
3. it will be either one of the three films

Angels and Demons
Terminator Salvation
Wolverine

[Jimmy Saunders]

Drag Me To Hell won't make as much as those other movies I'm guessing, but it won't "bomb" considering that it's budget is probably much smaller..

Out of those listed, I'd go with Angels and Demons and Wolverine being the disappointments here..

[Muta]

Terminator doesn't make any sense to me. The movies have no plots, except "kill the kid" or "kill his mom". They get chased, some robot tries to shoot them or blows shit up. Not interesting!

Urgh. :rolleyes:

[corran horn]

If I were to guess, I would say Star Trek, and that is not because I happen to be a fan of a rival franchise ;). Rather, it's because the second weekend in May has often been a deathtrap for aspiring blockbusters. Speed Racer springs to mind, and so does that Poseidon Adventure remake.

Terminator and NatM2 will have Memorial Day weekend, so I do not think they will flop. However, I don't expect them to do especially well either.

Angels and Demons will do fine. Maybe not as much as DaVinci Code, but not too far off.

Up and Wolverine will do fine, and I expect one of them will be the month's highest grossing film.

[Abbie Normal]

Terminator doesn't make any sense to me. The movies have no plots, except "kill the kid" or "kill his mom". They get chased, some robot tries to shoot them or blows shit up. Not interesting!

I understand what you mean, but you must really hate movies these days, because 99% of them have limited plots.


As for me, the first Terminator was pretty much a fully original plot. The second was more about the cool new cgi stuff. The third one was about money and the fourth one is about the war we all wanted to see since the first one came out.

[progra97]

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[Dr.Frankenstein]

Unfortunately for me I have a gut feeling it will be my 9th most anticipated film of 2009 aka "2012" .....after being fairly let down by Roland Emmerich's 10,000 B.C. last year-wasn't a bomb but a generous **1/2 outta 5 stars for that one. I hope I'm wrong!

[unspoken]

Not necessarily a "bomb" since it's not a huge budget, but with so many big budget flicks coming out this month, I cannot for the life of me understand why Summit would pick this of all months to put out The Brothers Bloom.

[The Heart Collector]

Star Trek.

[ilovemovies]

Star Trek being the most downloaded trailer ever makes me think it will definitely NOT bomb at the boxoffice. Infact, I'm begining to think that we might be underestimating it.

[JoeChar4321]

As I've said before, Wolverine is gonna do less than Incredible Hulk, and that is considered a disappointment

I'll lay real money down on that bet. Seriously.

[ilovemovies]

I don't see Wolverine doing as well as the other X-Men movies and that includes X-Men: The Last Stand.

[Conz]

still believe Wolverine isn't gonna do much better than Watchmen

[EDsoulsurvive*]

i dont think that wolverine or angels and demons are going to do that great, da vinci code was an atrocious movie and tom hanks is still horribly miscast. and the wolverine trailers are pretty meh, i see it opening big and dropping fast.

[Conz]

gotta think Wolvie is gonna bomb now, no shock to me, but the leak is gonna make it even worse

[ilovemovies]

After actually having seen it myself, I still think Wolverine will open big but then drop like a rock. In the end, I think it will underperform. It's really nothing but action but it's pretty kickass action. Still, it's not really worth seeing more than once. I'll be seeing it again of course since what I saw was just a workprint and there will be added scenes (and probably some scenes taken away) and completed special effects making the action kick even more ass.

But I'd look for a big opening weekend and then disappear afterwards pretty quickly.

Probably a 50-60 maybe a 70 mil opening weekend.

[NuclearMisfit]

I dont think any movie released during the summer will bomb, but quite possibly under perform.

Wolverine will probably do good regardless of the leak but again it could bomb but I think the word of mouth might hurt the film.

[tisha_b123]

DRAGONBALL EVOLUTION and X-MEN ORIGINS :Wolverine

[Badbird]

Okay, I'm pretty sure that Angels & Demons will be the big let down.

The hype about anything Da Vinci was pretty much at its peak when the last movie came out. I don't think it will do dreadfully low Speed Racer numbers, but it will be a big drop.

Wolverine is gonna be huge. No question. I mean, if X3 can make more money than X2, then I have no worries. And based on the glowing and rave reviews that are coming out for Star Trek, that's gonna be big as well.

[NathanRomano]

X MEN!

[BankaiZaraki]

DRAGONBALL EVOLUTION and X-MEN ORIGINS :Wolverine


You realize DB came out last week dontcha? Get your dates right.

[corran horn]

With all the developments of the past few weeks, I'm going to modify my initial statement. While I still believe UP will be a big success, I now think that STAR TREK will be the other (based on the warm reception it's received thus far). WOLVERINE will still open big, but I think it will collapse quickly afterward in light of the problems it's had.

[razgriz21]

Okay, I'm pretty sure that Angels & Demons will be the big let down.

The hype about anything Da Vinci was pretty much at its peak when the last movie came out.

Agree.

I think Wolverine will break even.

[Dr.Frankenstein]

But I'll say/list it again-unfortunately "2012" this fall + I hate that Emmerich and Co. are waiting till fall to release this.-Reminds me of how they passed on the summer of 2007 for winter 2008 for "10,000 B.C." - 10,000 BC seemed a nonstarter as well.

[Bourne101]

Well, one week down and no bombs yet. Wolverine had a very strong opening weekend, and even though it should drop pretty hard in the coming weeks, it will still be very successful.

Next up, Star Trek. I don't think it will open to massive numbers, but it should open to around $70 million and word of mouth is looking like it will prevent it from having massive drops when Angels & Demons and Terminator Salvation hit the big screen.

[sarah1980]

Next up, Star Trek. I don't think it will open to massive numbers, but it should open to around $70 million

well my dear if it does make $70 million opening weekend that will be the best opening for a Trek film since 1996's First Contact

[barryallen_thef]

this is a tough call. i would probably bet Angels & Demons for May. As for Star Trek thats the big question mark. im hoping that it will do well and since it seems theres gonna be lots of action and some love scenes..will see

[Conz]

apparently the internet isnt as big as i thought. How Wolverine still made that much is byond me. i expect it to sink like a rock, but if it doesnt, then im not making predictions anymore.

[Abbie Normal]

Well, one week down and no bombs yet. Wolverine had a very strong opening weekend, and even though it should drop pretty hard in the coming weeks, it will still be very successful.

Next up, Star Trek. I don't think it will open to massive numbers, but it should open to around $70 million and word of mouth is looking like it will prevent it from having massive drops when Angels & Demons and Terminator Salvation hit the big screen.

I don't know about you. but this is fun for me. I love bombs, but I love hits more. When The Dark Knight was crushing all I was checking the box office numbers everyday.

[drc5145]

I get the feeling some are lowballing Angels & Demons. The book gained a big following after practically riding off the popularity of The Da Vinci Code and Dan Brown. Many I've talked to felt Angels & Demons was the better book because while it's thin and dumb at parts just like the Da Vinci Code...it's much more thrilling than DVC. Add to the fact that you've got Tom Hanks...and people do love them some Tom Hanks...plus positive buzz from footage shown at ShoWest...I dunno, I get a gut feeling it will surprise people when it hits.

[snoopmish]

Star Trek being the most downloaded trailer ever makes me think it will definitely NOT bomb at the boxoffice. Infact, I'm begining to think that we might be underestimating it.


I believe it is being grossly underestimated. I am actually in shock at the things people are pcking as flopping. It seems like everyone is takng their own personal vendetta out on Terminator because of McG. I mean come on! There hasn't been one trailer that looks bad. Everyone sounds like "Hey, let's bash McG & Terminator so we look cool" because none of these arguments seem to hold any water with what has been shown of the film so far. PLUS...that whole PG13 argument seems really ridiculous when NBC has someone getting their throat slit with blood pumping and gushing out of it on one of their shows.

And yes...T2 would be PG13 if it was released now.

And all the Star Trek talk.....WTF is that?? That is going to be HUGE! There is so much buzz going on that with so much being said about it that is great...you guys are really missing the mark on that.

We all know what Wolverine did this past weekend.....but Star Trek is taking out come Friday and I think it'll be #1 until T:S comes out.

The only thing I think will be considered a flop is Angels & Demons because that is the only one I don't hear people talking about.

[sbunn10]

I think Star Trek is going to be huge, especially if the positive reviews keep rolling in.

[Grand_Marquis]

Awww, I misread the title as "Which May Movie Will We Bomb This Year?" as in, which one should we get together and commit a terrorist act against?

I totally would've bothered responding on-topic to that kind thread..

[detective mills]

I think Night at the Museum 2 will suffer the same fate as Prince Caspian last May. Releasing a sequel to a christmastime movie in may will probably not work in its favor.

I also don't think Angels & Demons will do as well as The Da Vinci Code, and while I'm looking forward to Terminator, I think it'll do Mission Impossible 3 type numbers. Not bad but not great.

And Star Trek is going to be huge, I think it'll have a bigger weekend than Wolverine.

[KCJ506]

I think Night at the Museum 2 will suffer the same fate as Prince Caspian last May. Releasing a sequel to a christmastime movie in may will probably not work in its favor.


Imagine kids being asked... "Kids, do you want a wacky museum movie, or Batman fighting Terminators"?

Terminator's gonna smoke NATM 2. It has a lot of hype, while NATM 2 doesn't. Secondly, you know what comes out the following week? Pixar's Up. What do you think parents will take their kids to? What do you think parents will take their kids to? In conclusion...FOX screwed up as usual. They had plenty of space in June.

[razgriz21]

Terminator Salvation won't exactly bomb but it would probably under perform financially.

And yes...T2 would be PG13 if it was released now.

No, it would not.

[jolanar]

Definitely Angels and Demons. Too much bad criticism of the first one. No longer any real media attention on the books.

I see it not doing so well.

[MidnightAngel]

X-Men Origins:Wolverine didn't bomb but the reviews did bombed.

[Abbie Normal]

No, it would not.

Just curious why you think if T2 was released today it would not get a pg-13 rating. I don't believe it to be any worse any The Dark Knight or similar movies out today. I only recall a few stabbing scenes that might be considered R rated.

[Potter82]

easy, G.I. Joe.

I saw a preview for this last night during Star Trek and I thought the preview was absolutely atrocious.

What was particularly interesting was the reaction to the preview - widespread mocking laughter, which, I take it, was not exactly the reaction they were hoping for. Everyone I saw this film with later made some disparaging comment about this flick when the subject turned to the preview (and away from the awesomeness that was Star Trek)

Also, though less likely, Transformers 2.

Yes the first Transformers did incredibly well but how many people actually liked it?

I personally thought it wasn't very good in the slightest and given that this is still Michael Bay's baby, I can't say I'm expecting anything difference - Just more of the same. I think many others share this view since the film hasn't been generating very much buzz - at all. I can't say I know many fans of the 1st one, the most positive thing I've ever heard about the flick was "m'eh it was alright"

I firmly believe that the quality of the first film in a franchise is absolutely critical to the success of it's successors. I mean would the the sequels to Batman Begins, Casino Royale, The Matrix, Spiderman, Lord of the Rings, etc. have been nearly as sucessful were it not for the quality of the original flicks?

Even if the sequel is shit, as in the case of say The Matrix or Spiderman, a high quality first film maybe enough to propel it's lesser sequel (or sequels) to achieve financial success.

If the first movie in the series sucks on the other hand?.... The only comparable situation I can think of is the new Star Wars trilogy but that can easily be explained by the existence of the prior trilogy. Any thoughts?

[Silverload]

Just curious why you think if T2 was released today it would not get a pg-13 rating. I don't believe it to be any worse any The Dark Knight or similar movies out today. I only recall a few stabbing scenes that might be considered R rated.

I don't get why suddenly everyone thinks that it now takes over the top gore & T&A to get an R rating. I guess we should tell Christopher Nolan this so he can hurry and get Memento bumped down to a PG-13 rating. Memento has zero gore and no T&A.

Truth is, none of the Terminator films are gore films, they were far too realistic for that kind of shtick. What earns the Terminator films the R rating is that they are incredibly violent films, and they treat the violence realistically. T1 & T2 are far more violent than T3, yet T3 still got an R rating.

The Dark Knight got away with PG-13 because all the real violence happens off screen. PG-13 allows all kinds of action, but very little on screen violence.

[Muta]

Yes the first Transformers did incredibly well but how many people actually liked it?

I didn't like it but a lot of people were laughing and clapping when the movie finished. More then probably The Dark Knight though the crowd before TDK was fucking insane. Beach balls and cheering when the lights went down. Haven't seen a reaction like that since Phantom Menace.

[project 86]

Silverload did you see Taken that was pretty damn violent and it got pg13

[Badbird]

Just curious why you think if T2 was released today it would not get a pg-13 rating. I don't believe it to be any worse any The Dark Knight or similar movies out today. I only recall a few stabbing scenes that might be considered R rated.

T-1000 stabbing the stepdad and the fat guard in the head, for starters.

Plenty of F-bombs as well.

R rated for sure. Way more violent and visceral than Dark Knight.

[ericdraven]

Just curious why you think if T2 was released today it would not get a pg-13 rating. I don't believe it to be any worse any The Dark Knight or similar movies out today. I only recall a few stabbing scenes that might be considered R rated.

The T-1000 kills a security guard by like stabbing him in the eye, and blood starts spurting out of his eye, yeah that's PG 13.

[Potter82]

I didn't like it but a lot of people were laughing and clapping when the movie finished. More then probably The Dark Knight though the crowd before TDK was fucking insane. Beach balls and cheering when the lights went down. Haven't seen a reaction like that since Phantom Menace.

Yeah, sounds like it was a hit with younger kids based on the reaction. Less so with late teens/twenty-something nerds/fanboys (the demographic I belong to)

I expect it will take in less than it's predecessor though.

[Abbie Normal]

Truth is, none of the Terminator films are gore films, they were far too realistic for that kind of shtick. What earns the Terminator films the R rating is that they are incredibly violent films, and they treat the violence realistically. T1 & T2 are far more violent than T3, yet T3 still got an R rating.

The Dark Knight got away with PG-13 because all the real violence happens off screen. PG-13 allows all kinds of action, but very little on screen violence.

The body count is way higher and more realistic in my eyes in The Dark Knight than T1 or T2. Plus in T2 the Terminator learned the value of life and isn't that lesson worth a PG 13? And because the deaths are off screen that makes it better? I don't buy that. A death is a death, is a death.

T-1000 stabbing the stepdad and the fat guard in the head, for starters.

Plenty of F-bombs as well.

R rated for sure. Way more violent and visceral than Dark Knight.

So a machine killing people is worse than a crazy human killing people? Why is America so hung up on words? A few "fucks' never hurt anyone.

The T-1000 kills a security guard by like stabbing him in the eye, and blood starts spurting out of his eye, yeah that's PG 13.

No worse than one man shooting one man and telling a few others to shoot another man just to claim all the stolen loot one camera, telling three other men to fight to death with a broken pool stick until one prevails, blowing up a hospital and then hi jacking one of the buses full with patients, tying two people to chairs in rooms with drums of gas and a bombs in which one of them dies and the other is disfigured, having one man fed to his hungry dogs, attempting to blow up two ferries full of passengers, killing one man on tape and then tying a rope around him and throwing him over the side of a building, blowing up a judge, poisoning a chief of police, kidnapping several police officers, attempting to killing the mayor, arson, ect.

Yeah, that sounds like PG 13 to me. The T 1000 was a machine. A machine killing a human is never thought of as bad as a human killing a human. I am not saying either movie should or should not get a PG-13 or R rating. I am just pointing out that they both should get the same rating, because they are both violent and visceral.

[poopontheshoes7]

I think GI Joe is gonna bomb. Well, not totally, but its gonna be a dissapointment.

I saw Trek twice and the trailer played before both screenings and the audience laughed at it each time. Not just a few snickers, but straight out laughter. It looks stupid as hell to me too.

[Silverload]

No worse than one man shooting one man and telling a few others to shoot another man just to claim all the stolen loot one camera, telling three other men to fight to death with a broken pool stick until one prevails, blowing up a hospital and then hi jacking one of the buses full with patients, tying two people to chairs in rooms with drums of gas and a bombs in which one of them dies and the other is disfigured, having one man fed to his hungry dogs, attempting to blow up two ferries full of passengers, killing one man on tape and then tying a rope around him and throwing him over the side of a building, blowing up a judge, poisoning a chief of police, kidnapping several police officers, attempting to killing the mayor, arson, ect.

All off screen and implied. We never saw anyone die from anything more than bloodless gunshots or clean explosions. The Joker never fed anyone to dogs, it was a threat, and if it actually happened we never knew about it. No one even died from the hospital explosion. We never saw Joker kill anyone on tape, it was all 100% implied. All the potentially R rated violence in TDK happens off screen. Insinuating violence is not the same as showing it. TDK even got annoying at times because it insinuated everything (the Gambol death scene was lame, WTF even happened there?). PG-13 films insinuate it, R rated films show it. There was really nothing in TDK that made me think it deserves an R rating, were as I see the Terminator films (especially 1 & 2) as the epitome of R (that is without going way over the top into splatter flick territory).

[Abbie Normal]

All off screen and implied. We never saw anyone die from anything more than bloodless gunshots or clean explosions. The Joker never fed anyone to dogs, it was a threat, and if it actually happened we never knew about it. No one even died from the hospital explosion. We never saw Joker kill anyone on tape, it was all 100% implied. All the potentially R rated violence in TDK happens off screen. Insinuating violence is not the same as showing it. TDK even got annoying at times because it insinuated everything (the Gambol death scene was lame, WTF even happened there?). PG-13 films insinuate it, R rated films show it. There was really nothing in TDK that made me think it deserves an R rating, were as I see the Terminator films (especially 1 & 2) as the epitome of R (that is without going way over the top into splatter flick territory).

The Joker shot the bus driver. Off screen or insinuating violence is the same thing. Only in Hollywood is it different to get a pg 13 or r rating. Gambol's throat was cut. It was pretty frigging clear to me. The rating system is a joke.

[snoopmish]

The Joker shot the bus driver. Off screen or insinuating violence is the same thing. Only in Hollywood is it different to get a pg 13 or r rating. Gambol's throat was cut. It was pretty frigging clear to me. The rating system is a joke.

Not to mention the guy who was hanged.....they showed all of that from the moment he hit the window to when they brought him down. I guess since there is no blood it is OK to show a person executed by hanging. That is a total PG13 death:p

[Gullom]

My wife saw NatM 2 last night at a pre-screening. No spoilers here, but she says that she liked it enough to say that everyone should see it this weekend.

[Badbird]

Angels & Demons opened solid, and is doing crazy good overseas. Looks like it's gonna be okay. Maybe not Davinci-Code-$760-million-okay, but still okay.

Star Trek will probably end up grossing what all four Next Generation movies did combined.

Wolverine is in the clear.

I'm sure Museum and T4 will be fine.

Still don't know how well Up will do, but it'll probably be solid.

Looks like May could be bomb free, as far as the heavy hitters are concerned.

[Spidey]

Funny how some schmoes predicted Star Trek wouldn't do great at the boxoffice, seeing it's the top grossing movie of the year so far.

[MidnightAngel]

Looks like May could be bomb free, as far as the heavy hitters are concerned.
Bomb free? Terminator Salvation is the bomb!

[Abbie Normal]

Well the May movies are out and the results are in. I think or hope Hollywood will learn not release soooooooo many big releases before the kiddies are out of school in May. May can't handle more than 3 and that is max. 2 works best. One in the beginning and one on Memorial weekend. Better off crowding June and July.


The Hits:
UP- Another hit for Pixar. All hail Pixar!
Star Trek- Can be more than proud. Good job.
X-Men: Wolverine- Not the hit Fox wanted or the movie we wanted, but it did alright and well enough to not be a bomb.

The Bombs:
Terminator 4- I still liked it, but this is the bomb of May 2009


The In Borderline:
Night of the Museum 2- It might get to $200 and even though it will fall short of the first one, I can not say it is a bomb. If it gets to $200, I'd put it in the hit category.
Angels and Demons: Domestically a bomb, but I can't bomb it because of nearly $300 in foreign gross. You can bomb it, I won't.