What Will Be #2 in 2002?

[ANTBond007]

Kind of a dumb question, but what will be the #2 highest grossing film in the year 2002? Why #2? Well, whether you loved Episode I or hated it, Episode II is a foregone conclusion.

So; will it be Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers? The Matrix 2? Terminator 3?

Now, you're gonna say: Why can't these three be number 1?!?! Just remember that Star Wars is much more popular. That, and the fact that Lord of the Rings II and Matrix 2 aren't going to come out until the end of the year and Terminator just doesn't have the fanbase.

Post your response /ubb/smile.gif

[Crynot]

Pretty confident in your decision aren't ya? I would have to say the Matrix 2 will blow everything else away. But, whose to say that some Titanic type movie will just pop up in 2002 and even beat out Episode 2?

You never know!

Crynot

[ProzacMan]

I definitely don't think that it is a fore gone conclusion that Episode 2 will be the number one movie in 2002! Episode 1 wasn't very good and I don't think I am alone in saying that. I doubt unless I hear good reviews that I will pay to see it not after paying to see Episode 1 (ugh). I think that The Matrix 2 has a shot but it also has a shot a being the biggest flop of the year! It had possibly the one of the worst Hollywoodified (yes I made up a word) endings I have ever seen although the rest of the movie was great. I just hope they come up with a decent plot! I think the one that you can't count out is Lord of the Rings!!! A movie based on the most popular work of fiction this century (it was voted that anyways) will undoubtedly bring lots of movie goers but that also depends on how the first one fairs. As for the Terminator who cares Terminator 2 sucked I don't even care if they make another one. If they do no James Cameron would be good he likes to ruin good movies with special effects IMO. In the end though you will always have the sheep that go see a movie just because the first one was good. So you could be right this is just my 2 cents.

[Tuukka]

Lord of the rings could be huge, maybe even bigger than Episode 2. It's true that it will come out in christmas, and can't beat the box office of episode 2 in the same year. But I think the competition should go between films which are RELEASED in 2001. That's why 2002 grosses should be counted to it as well, if the film is having major business then.

I think LOTR will have a kind of "must see" quality to it, no matter what age or sex you are. It will hopefully be something unique, something that nobody has done before. Maybe it will even affect the mainstream cinema in the same way that Star Wars did.

...But then again, it might turn out being crap. The biggest flop in the history of film making. Let's hope for the best.


[This message has been edited by Tuukka (edited 08-03-2000).]

[ANTBond007]

Yes, I should have said in the event a movie just jumps out and is a smash (similar to The Sixth Sense). I have one main reason Episode II is definately #1: Episode I made $431M. Many will say "so what"? That's $331M after its first week, meaning people went back. If it "sucked", why did people go back? The effects? You shouldn't see a movie twice for those.

Even great movies like Matrix (which people REALLY love) didn't get people to come back. It one an (undeserved, IMHO) Special Effects Oscar, shouldn't people have come back? Yet it only made $171M on a $100M budget. In other words, Matrix made Warner Bros. $71M, Episode I made Fox (and George Lucas) $316M off of a $115M budget.

Anyway, this is my predicted 2002 gross (counting the entire box-office runs of Matrix 2 and The Two Towers):

Star Wars: Episode II: $381M
The Matrix 2: $244M
Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers: $220M
Terminator 3: $110M

Just my opinion. After all, it's possible (however VERY unlikely) they all will miss the $100M mark.

[Biggest Freak]

Prozac Man talks sense. While Episode One was an average film it was an awful Star Wars, while I had my misgivings all along I think many other fans will not be so hyped about episode 2 after all its not as if we don`t know whats gonna happen. Only the most rabid of fans will still be so hyped about episode 2 ( and im not that rabid ).

We do not know what other films may spring out of nowhere and its not as if a high budget and years of planning make a good film, see Blair Witch Poject.

Please enough of this nonsence.

[Mr. Meat]

Well personally I think LOTR willl be a good film, but that goes to say I don't think it wil do THAT well as ANTBond007 predicted. It might have a "great film" appeal to it, but not enough fans maybe.

I would have to agree that no matter what, a new Star Wars film will sell like Viagra at a Playboy Party. ( /ubb/smile.gif )

I would pay to see the next Terminator film, so I guess Cameron has a fanboy here, but what would be the plot without creating more plot holes???




[This message has been edited by Mr. Meat (edited 08-03-2000).]

[HomerSimpson]

Here's my predictions:

THE TERMINATOR 3: ARNIE'S BACK - 180 m.

LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS - 200 m.

THE MATRIX 2: THE JET LI MENACE - 230 m.

STAR WARS: EPISODE II: THE DEATH OF JAR JAR - 300 m.

[This message has been edited by HomerSimpson (edited 08-03-2000).]

[retardinAz]

Are you serious Prozacman!?! T2 sucked!?!?! T2 is one of the greatest movies ever!
My prediction:
Episode II: $400M
Matrix 2: $280M
T3: $250M
LOTR: $150M

And Tuukka, people didn't necessarily go back. Is it hard to believe that there are that many Star Wars fans? I think that the reason it made so much is because people ignored that it was a bad movie and just went cause it was Star Wars. Plus there are MANY fans(like the ones who camped out for 3 months!) who would go and see it 100 times if they could, just because they are stupid.

[Tuukka]

Hey Retardinz, It was AntBond who said that, not me!!!!!!! I didn't like Phantom Menace and I don't understand why anyone wanted to see it again.

Mr. Meat, when the online trailer for episode 1 came to net, 1 million people uploaded it during the first day. When the LOTR trailer came to net, 1,7 million people uploaded it during the first day. That's almost twice as much! Doesn't that say something about the fanbase for the film...?

I'm just saying that all those other films are sequels. They have kind of "been there, seen that" feeling to them. They might be great films, but don't look very original in my mind. LOTR might have a sort of "anthem" quality to it. Something that people have never seen before. If the film is as good as expected, I believe it will do at least 200 million in he states.

[screamer581]

I didn't like The Phantom Menace either, but the main reason it made so much money is that Sta Wars fans are very loyal. I am sure some of them didn't really like it, but they thought ''this is Star Wars, I have to like it'' so they wen't to see it 10 times, I don't agree with there logic, but that's what I think it is.

[retardinAz]

Sorry Tuukka, I don't know what I was thinking about.

[ProzacMan]

Talking about a loyal fan base, I don't think that you will find very many people that have read the LOTR trilogy that don't like it. In fact I would be willing to wager that there are more people that like the LOTR than Star Wars it is one of the most read books of fiction. In fact I would bet that LOTR trilogy has been read many more times than any Star Wars Novel.

[Tuukka]

The thing about LOTR is that most people read it around 12 years. It affects them more than any book ever before, like it affected me. It's not the best book I have ever read, but it's with no doubt the most influental one. I simply can't forget it and I know that many people feel the same way.

I think the fan base for LOTR is a kind of hidden one. The fans don't organize meetings etc. very much. We might all be surprised when LOTR the film comes out. It might well have the biggest opening weekend ever. It's a sort of thing that nobody really talks about, but it's part of their childhood and they want to see it become alive on the big screen. I'm totally psyched about LOTR and I belive that Jackson will do it right. So far everything with the film has gone just perfectly. Cast is brilliant and they just signed Howard Shore to do the score. The man is hugely talented and I believe he will come up with something special for LOTR.

[ANTBond007]

Ah, but Tuukka, there's something you need to remember about the Lord of the Rings trailer; it was never released in theatres. The Star Wars: Episode I teaser was (and on Entertainment Tonight). Therefore, if you saw it in theatres, why would you need to download it? I'm sure more than 700,000 people went to see Waterboy and Meet Joe Black (Unfortunately for them) the day the teaser was released.

As for seeing Phantom Menace more than once, I did. I saw it 3 times in theatres (this is alot for me). Hell, the only other film I saw twice last year was Matrix, and I saw that twice (And, so sue me, it bored me the second time, yet I loved it the first).

[Pinchadiscos]

I doubt Lord of the Rings will be as popular as "Matrix 2" or "Star Wars 2".... I mean it's way easier for 'sequels' to amazing movies to earn more money! (If I remember it right, Jurrasic Park 2 and Star Wars Ep1 are the 2 movies with the biggest opening weekend gross... but then I can be wrong)

I somehow think Matrix 2 will beat out Star Wars 2, because moviegoers won't know what to expect (and there is more chance that this movie will have a lot more new stuff goin on), while for Star Wars - you can probably guess what's going to happen... but then it's all about the special effects...

To be honest, I didn't like Star Wars Ep1 (in fact i kinda hated it) nor did i like Matrix, but I was amazed by the special effects in Matrix... So if I have to choose between the two, I will go see Matrix 2.

Matrix is more for the general audience (i don't know anyone that are crazy matrix fans who collect everything to do with matrix), while Star Wars is mainly for Star Wars fans (or sci-fi lovers)... The more I think about it, the more I believe that MAtrix 2 will become the biggest hit in 2002!

[Tuukka]

Was the episode 1 teaser released first in movie theaters and then in internet? Anyway, I seriously doubt that films like Waterboy and Joe Black get 700.000 downloads during the first day.

If those 1.7 million people who downloaded the LOTR teaser (=fans of the book) will go to see the film, it will mean already over 120 million box office. And that was downloads for only one day.

..But I think that LOTR 3 will the most popular of the trilogy. The part one will end with a sort of an anti climax, so that will most likely affect it's box office performance.

[HomerSimpson]

There is no way The Matrix 2 can beat Star Wars 2. First of all, Star Wars is a movie that has a very, very wide audience. It's not just for Star Wars fans, it's also a family film. When I went to see Episode I I was surprised to see how many families with little kids were there. It's not very often when a movie can be entertaining for both adults and kids alike, and I think that's what expalains Episode I's succes.

Martix 2 on the other hand is an R-rated movie whose major audience are teenagers and young adults. Ofcource, the Matrix (unlike The Terminator) is now more popular then ever and that means it's going to do better han the first Matrix. Even thought Matrix 2 should do great at the B.O. (230), there is not way it can beat Star Wars II, which will gross about 300 million.

[hornytony]

Don't forget every Star Wars movie has finished number one at the box-office in its year of release. (That does not include the special editions.)Episode Two will finish number one. Though Matrix 2 will probalay become the highest grossing R rating.

[Popples]

For those who are trying to compare the Phantom Menace to the popularity of Episode II..and I'm not going by box office earnings..but all I've got to say is that I surprisingly saw the Phantom Menace on sale at Blockbuster Video for like 8 bucks, meanwhile other tapes such as the Matrix are being sold for like 10 to 15. That should tell you what's going to happen in 2002!

[Biggest Freak]

THERE IS NO POINT ARGUING!

SOME FILM YOU ALL CAN~T SEE COMING COULD BLOW ALL THEM AWAY. ITS NOT AS IF FILMS CANNOT BE MADE IN LESS THAN A YEAR.

oh one more point:
DID ANYONE THINK THAT ONE OR ALL OF THE ABOVE FILMS COULD OVERUN IN FILMING, EDITING, PRODUCING ETC AND MAY MISS 2002?

Its not as if it hasn`t happened before.

[ANTBond007]

Funny, Popples, 'cuz I picked up The Matrix DVD at Blockbuster for $8 and the VHS is going for $4.99. TPM is going for $14.