New Line LOTR choice

[dh1989]

Does anybody think that New Line was fooloish to greenlight and shoot all three Lord Of The Rings trilogy before anybody could see the first one. i hear the budget was 270 million dollars. If the first one tanks, the sequels will be huge bombs. if you were a New Line executive would you greenlight the whole trilogy at once?

[Tuukka]

It's a gamble, and if it pays off they make an enourmous amount of money. Sequels are expensive to make, since everyone involved wants more money.

LOTR movies are costing close to 300 million and each individual film is cheaper because they were able to make them at the same time. If they would have done only FOTR first, it would have cost at least 120 million. If the film would have been succesful and they would have greenlighted the sequel, the budget would probably have been close to 150 million... All in all the three films would have been more than 400 million instead of less than 300 million...

It seems that New Line has nothing to worry about. FOTR will make 250 million at minimum in the worldwide market. And if it makes that much, it's considered as a disappointment.

Also, the merchandising rights and working partners have enabled New Line to already cover around 80% of the budget.

[ak]

In terms of an already built in audience, the hype affecting a great deal of people who have never heard of it or are not interested in it, and the immense scope of the films, i can see the first - FOTR being in at least the top five biggest films of all time.

[ANTBond007]

What hype? I still don't know a damn person who isn't online that knows that a Lord of the Rings film is coming. Hell, 70% of those don't even know what Lord of the Rings are.

But I still see Fellowship of the Ring making $175 million in the U.S. If I had to predict trilogy gross (U.S.), this would be it:

Fellowship -- $175 million
Towers -- $130 million
Return -- $160 million

I lowered The Two Towers from the other entries simply because it goes head-to-head with The Matrix Reloaded.

[Ender]

I'm glad they got all three done. This way they can't pull the usual "Oh wait, the first flick didn't quite pull in 700 times it's budget. Guess we'll have to scrap the sequels. Or maybe if we fiddle around with it a little, and add in some cartoon rabbits. Yeah, that's it, make it a family film, for a big summer release...".

[ak]

Antbond - Have you been on a desert island for the past year?

I never, personally, put any kind of figure next to a film before its release, it's totally pointless, no one knows what it will make, but, i know this for one fact, if the first part of The Lord of the Rings - The Fellowship of the Ring, lives up to expectation and makes an enormous amount of money then Matrix II will suffer.

Of course, Matrix II is going to make a large amount of money, but, from what i have experienced from those who liked the first, they are simply not interested in a second, do we really need one? No. I'm certainly not excited by it, and from the set pics i have seen so far it still looks un-extraordinary, but, these are only minor set pics so far, so, we'll see in the future.


[This message has been edited by ak (edited 06-24-2001).]

[ANTBond007]

And, on that same token, it's also a bit foolish to predict that a film will end up in the top five of all time. Do you realize how difficult a task that is? For that, you must have everything right: An established fan base and/or interest, interesting trailers, good word-of-mouth, a story that makes people want to see, an established director...

The point is, based on current trailers: How many people are going to want to see a movie about a band of men teaming up to find a ring? Hell, how many Americans even know what "Fellowship" means?

[ak]

"An established fan base and/or interest, interesting trailers, good word-of-mouth, a story that makes people want to see, an established director..."

Does LOTR have this? Yes.

Also, i couldn't care a monkey's banana if LOTR becomes so huge, the actual fact of the matter is that they are QUALITY films, which, from what i have seen, most certainly are.

Also, if you just think that the story is just about men teaming up, then you most certainly need to read the books again.

[This message has been edited by ak (edited 06-24-2001).]

[Tuukka]

I say only that FOTR has POTENTIAL to be in the top 5 of all time. The latest teaser was very cool and I know that they haven't shown us anything yet. No big money shots yet, which is wise since the film is still 5 months away.

Who knows, the film might have serious flaws to it and might be too uncommercial to be a really big hit. In the september they will show us a new 3 minute trailer, and only after that we can make more trustworthy predictions. The hype machine will really start when the new trailer arrives and only after that we can say if the masses are interested.¨

Apparently the film will be 99% ready by then, so we might even have sneak previews months before the film is released.

BTW, the film is definitely having hype outside the internet community. Many major movie/entertainment/life-style magazines and newspapers have written multi-page articles about it. Some have even had it on their cover. That's extremely rare to do when there is still half a year to the release.

But the mainstream audiences will be seduced only after september, if they are seduced at all. All it takes is an impressive trailer, and I don't think that will much trouble for New Line. After all FOTR has lot's of big SFX and big action. Those two are the surest ways to appeal to masses.


[This message has been edited by Tuukka (edited 06-24-2001).]

[ANTBond007]

ak, that's what the two current trailers have implied it to be.

[ak]

Tuuka, when a New Line executive saw the roughly cut version of the film he stated he was most pleased with both the artistic aspects and commercial aspects, but i don't expect a greatly commercial film from Peter Jackson.

Antbond....Trailers are not a great indication of a film at all to be honest, and they can't really spend a great deal of time telling a story otherwise you'd bore people to death.

[ak]

...P.S - has anyone seen the new Cave Troll pics from the film? Here it is.....very well rendered, but weird looking.

http://www.theonering.net/movie/scrapbook/large/1402



[This message has been edited by ak (edited 06-25-2001).]