LOTR vs Harry Potter

[MadEyeMoody]

I know they come out a month apart from each other but, aside from maybe Ali, these will most likely be the 2 juggernauts of the fall.
Who will win?
My money is on Harry Potter. The books are wonderful and the film looks quality, even though it SUPOSSEDLY is aimed at kids I think adults will love it also. It also has 3 weeks before anything of substance comes out to pick up speed and momentum. LOTR will be competing w/ ALI and Oceans 11.
LOTR looks very good also but I dont think the masses will pick up on it as much.

Harry Potter 275 million
LOTR 165 million

[Tuukka]

I think the "vs" in the name of this topic is unnecessary, since these films are not competing with each other. There is four weeks before LOTR comes out after HP, and HP is likely to do 80% of ít's B.O during those four weeks. Of course the film might have a long run in the B.O, but it's released on thousands of screens when it premieres, and most of those screens will drop the film before the december 19th to give space for other blockbuster films. That's how movie world works today, they try to get as much money as fast as possible instead of giving the films time to perform.

I think that the success of HP will reflect on the succes of LOTR. If people like HP, they will also want to see another big fantasy film, and vice versa.

Personally I think that both films will be massive, crossing more than 200 million in USA and at least 500 worldwide. But it's hard to say which one will be more popular. I think LOTR, but I might be wrong.

Anyway, I hope that both films will do good business (if they are good as films). Just for the record, Peter Jackson (director of LOTR) has said that he wishes HP to perform well and thinks that it will introduce more people to the fantasy genre, leading them to see (and read) LOTR as well.

A QUOTE FROM MADEYE:

"It also has 3 weeks before anything of substance comes out to pick up speed and momentum. LOTR will be competing w/ ALI and Oceans 11."

RE: HP has to compete with Windtalkers, Spy Game and Monsters Inc. Ali and Ocean's Eleven are both realistic drama films that come out two weeks before LOTR. LOTR will have Gangs Of New York, The Majestic, Time Machine, The Shipping News and Beautiful Mind to compete with it, but none of those are so-called "event films", despite some big name actors. In fact many of them will probably start with a limited release, wanting to get in the Oscar game. Both LOTR and HP have lot's of room to perform.



[This message has been edited by Tuukka (edited 09-06-2001).]

[Scorchlord]

There are many more Tolkien fans worldwide than there are Harry Potter fans. I'm not dissing Harry, because I love the books and I'll be there opening day for the movie, but I think LOTR will win this one.

[TheMovieMinor]

Both movies will suck horribly and Neither of them will make more than 200, for sure, because no one wants to see it accept those fantasy fans, but there arent to many of those.

[Tuukka]

"Both movies will suck horribly and Neither of them will make more than 200, for sure, because no one wants to see it accept those fantasy fans, but there arent to many of those."

RE: Just for a record, Harry Potter alone has sold more than 100 million books. That's a lot of readers, especially if you include all the people who borrowed the books from friends or library. If people are willing to read fantasy, they are willing to watch it as well.

LOTR in the other hand has sold more than 70 million. HP has five books, LOTR has only one (the trilogy is counted as one book in statistics). That means 70 million people + millions of people who have borrowed it from family, friends or library. And 90% of those people who have read are still alive. That means AT LEAST 100 million people worldwide. A ticket costs 7-10 dollars. Do the math. And that's only the people who are already familiar with the book.

"Both movies will suck horribly"

RE: You have psychic powers, do you? I personally haven't seen either of these two films.

[This message has been edited by Tuukka (edited 09-06-2001).]

[FlickJunkie]

I personally want and think that Harry Potter will be and do better. It seems to have more fans then LOTR. And, TheMovieMiner, they both probably will do over $200 million. At least I think Harry Potter will. It's the only one coming out over it's debut weekend so it will kick some serious ass its opening weekend and might break records, which I hope it does.

[ilovemovies]

I agree that both films will do HUGE business but even though the Harry Potter movie, to my surprise, actually looks decent from the trailer, I am pretty sure LOTR will be better. To me anyway. It's more my cup of tea than Harry Potter. (even though I hate tea http://www.joblo.com/ubb/wink.gif but you get what I mean)

[This message has been edited by ilovemovies (edited 09-06-2001).]

[Ender]

Well, LOTR was the superior book,so hopefully it will make the better movie.

[Nate6]

Both are guaranteed to do well, but I think that LOTR will be the better film and likely will do better at the box office.

[ak]

The Fellowship of the Ring will be monumentally the biggest taker at the box office, but, that doesn't concern me a shit. The films look to be of the highest quality, something which is far more important than any manner of money. (Although it obviously helps).

Also, the question of which one will be better? Well, Harry Potter looks to be a very good, very well made picture, but, frankly, LOTR will crap all over it.

[Scrunch]

Harry Potter will draw more parents with kids. It's a long film so getting some kids to sit through it once might be difficult. Plus it's expensive to go to the movies these days and I would imagine that parents taking their kids over and over again won't happen as much as LOTR fans who will likely see this over and over again. (At full price, not reduced childrens price I might add.)

But that's really getting picky. They're probably both going to do amazingly well at the box office. I can't wait to see both and won't feel bad one way or the other about one making more money than the other.

[Ender]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by ak:
The Fellowship of the Ring will be monumentally the biggest taker at the box office, but, that doesn't concern me a shit. The films look to be of the highest quality, something which is far more important than any manner of money. (Although it obviously helps).</font>

That's an excellent point. What does the box office really tell us anyway? I mean, a lot of shitty movies made an assload of money (Pearl Harbor), while a lot of quality films didn't draw squat (Fight Club).

[Tuukka]

Hey, has anyone seen the new TV commercial for FOTR? Theonering.net has stills from it, but they are pretty low quality...

[Tuukka]

Oh my God.... Lot's of new footage in the clip!!! VERY cool stuff... And we get to see the cave troll. He rocks! These films are going to be amazing visually.

Click here:

http://homepage.mac.com/johnemdall/.Movies/lotr-tv320.mov


[This message has been edited by Tuukka (edited 09-07-2001).]

[Herbie_Hancock]

The Lord of the Rings are the greatest fantasy books ever. As long as they dont fuck up too much, they can't go wrong. The troll alone looks badass. The preview was the best part of the GAY MTV Movie Awards. I never read Harry Potter, but I doubt it can hold a candle to Tolkein, at least the books...

[cutman]

Wow, I really don't like that trailer, especially the ending of it with Mr. Voice rushing to say "The Lord of the Rings, Directed by Peter Jackson, Starts December 19."

I'm sorry, but I don't see why that trailer would make anyone want to see the movie (besides the die hard fans of course).

I guess that it was just an attempt to let the MTV viewing audience see that it was coming out. When a trailer is geared towards MTV viewers, I guess I shouldn't have high expectations anyway.

Oh well...now I have to wait until October. Damn.

[Scorchlord]

Very cool stuff in that second trailer.

God, I can't wait until December.

[Tuukka]

Cutman, let's not forget that this is a TV teaser commercial. It's only goal is to give away the premise of the film and show some cool shots from the film. If you have read the book, you know that it's still not showing any of the big moneyshots.

Yeah, the voice-over in the end sucks in a way, but the commercial is only trying to make people aware of the film, it's not tying to make it a must-see yet. It's still three and a half months to the premiere. I'm happy that New Line is not showing their cards yet.

...But all the new shots in the commercial look very cool in my opinion. It think that this new commercial is continuing the tradition of recent trailers: It gives the "wow factor" to only to those people who have read the books. I think that New Line probably knows this and they are going to show a lot more of the epic action and SFX in the october trailer.

The reason why I said "Oh my God" was not because the commercial is somehow groundbreaking, but because it's great to see new, cool footage, and because it further makes me believe that the film is in the right track indeed.

[This message has been edited by Tuukka (edited 09-07-2001).]

[cutman]

I have read the books, Tuuka, and I did think that the new footage was awesome. But I did not think that the commercial itself was very good. It just seemed too cheap and rushed.

I hope that the real new trailer shows how epic the series is going to be. I don't care about seeing any money shots...I just want people who are not die hard fans like you and I to want to see the films. In my opinion, if I wasn't a fan, that commercial would not give me any reason to see the movies.

[Tuukka]

Yeah, I kind of agree with you. I really hope that they deliver a great three minute trailer in october, starting out slow and low-key and then building up to a beautiful, majestic, epic feel. I believe in Jackson 99%, but New Line is not doing their best with the marketing. The January teaser was a mess. You can make a great teaser withour showing anything, but they failed to do it. I hope they put their best efforts to the marketing in the future. I think that the problem with this commercial was that it was trying to SELL us something instead of TELLING us something. It's you usual MTV commercial.

Anyway, to all those people who haven't read the book: You haven't seen anything yet. The trailers and commercials are only hinting at the epicness and the scope of the film.

[Tuukka]

...I just read Moriarty's review of the Cannes footage at AICN... It's getting pretty weird how everyone who sees the footage is singing hallelujas after it.

[Scorchlord]

Yeah, it is. I don't know whether to take that as good or bad, though.

After reviewing said commercial a few timse, I agree with cutman. It does looked rushed and ends too brusquely. But considering it was a commercial on during MTV awards and the watchers of that have an average attention span shorter than that of a fly, it makes a little sense.

[ak]

The trailer footage itself was superior...the trailer was moderate. The Moriarty review was unbelievable, i'm pissing myself.

[Horror whore]

I can't wait for both of these movies...I think Harry Potter may make more money (but not much) than LOTR because Harry Potter is for everyone (PG) and it's recent (the book). While Tolkien's fans are older than Harry's and LOTR isn't aimed as much at kids...

My Predictions:

Lord Of The Rings 170-200 Million
Harry Potter and The Sorcerers Stone 175-205 Million

[urbanlegend23]

Are you flippin' crazy?!!?

LOTR is the most highly anticipated movie of the year! It will gross much higher than Harry Potter (which looks excellent) in my opinion. I put my money of LOTR.

[Horror whore]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by urbanlegend23:
Are you flippin' crazy?!!?
</font>


Yes....Yes I am.

[Dark Prince]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Horror whore:

Yes....Yes I am.

</font>

Hehe, you and me both.