December Movie Box Office

[dh1989]

What do you expect the following December films to gross.

December 7th
Ali- 83 million
Ocean's Eleven- 148 million

Decmeber 14th
Not Another Teen Movie- 12 million
Vannila Sky- 60 million

December 19th
Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring- 195 million

December 21st
The Accidental Spy- 26 million
Gangs Of New York- 47 million
Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius- 103 million
Joe Somebody- 70 million
The Majestic- 43 million
The Royal Tanenbaums- 22 million
Gosford Park- 3 million

December 25th
Bad Company- 35 million
A Beatiful Mind- 21 million
The Shipping News- 126 million
The Time Machine- 60 million
The Hours-15 million

December 26th
How High- 7 million

What do you guys think?

[ak]

At the moment i'm concerned that The Fellowship of the Ring is just not being marketed very well. First off we had Elijah Wood's face brooding at us, holding a ring, and secondly we had a painting of two statues....hardly any indication of what these films should be, or the story they are telling.
This might effects the film's final box office takings.

Ali - Will Smith - Micheal Mann - story of the greatest sporting hero of all time - they can't lose.


Ocean's Eleven will be big i think, the cast is good, with some recongnisable faces.

[Nate6]

What I think:

December 7th
ALI- $106 million
OCEAN'S ELEVEN- $139 million

December 14th
NOT ANOTHER TEEN MOVIE- $11 million
VANILLA SKY- $51 million

December 19th
LOTR: FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING- $189 million

December 21st
THE ACCIDENTAL SPY- $18 million
GANGS OF NEW YORK- $72 million
JIMMY NEUTRON: BOY GENIUS- $76 million
JOE SOMEBODY- $41 million
THE MAJESTIC- $101 million
THE ROYAL TENENBAUMS- $13 million
GOSFORD PARK- $3 million

December 25th
BAD COMPANY- $42 million
A BEAUTIFUL MIND- $65 million
THE SHIPPING NEWS- $91 million
THE TIME MACHINE- $60 million
THE HOURS- $23 million

December 26th
HOW HIGH- $8 million

[max]

Nate6 - Even if ALI turns out to be a great film, I doubt if it would make over $100 mil.. Sports biopics are usually box-office poison. Knowing Mann, the movie would probably run at least 2-1/2 hours. It will also have to compete with several high-profile films. And there's an X-factor to consider. How will the upcoming war affect the box-office in general. And, more specifically, would Ali's Muslim status turn audiences off?

[Nate6]

Point taken.

I forgot about the Muslim thing, I was thinking about the HUGE buzz and Will Smith's star power (it wasn't Kenneth Branagh and Kevin Kline that got the terrible WILD WILD WEST $117 million domestically).

I guess that America's situation right now doesn't exactly help the film, but I hate how so many people are being so pessimistic about the whole thing. I think that people want a diversion. The box office will do fine, ESPECIALLY on popcorn flicks like HARRY POTTER and JIMMY NEUTRON. Hopefully this thing will have settled down a bit by then, I think it'll help once all the TV networks (ABC, CBS, NBC) go back to their regular programming. Ted Koppel said last night that after JFK's assassination the nation was in darkness until the next week, when all the TV comedies returned and people could forget about it. The same will happen here. As soon as it stops being blasted all over the news, everywhere you look, then things will return to normal.

[max]

Nate6 - My feeling is that it's going to get worse before it gets better. Bush, in his speech from Camp David this morning, wants America to prepare for a long, messy war. It's going to be a new kind of war. It's not going to be the kind of war we can observe from a distance or through CNN. There will be the constant threat of retaliatory terrorist acts here at home. I'm not sure how the box-office has been affected during times of war. I'm guessing that people sought diversion and refusge in movies. But, like I said, this is a different kind of war. Theaters may not be a safe haven. And the growing anti-Muslim sentiment does not especially bode well for a movie like Ali.

[Horror whore]

What is with all the Not Another Teen Movie predictions? That movie will make alot of money (I believe).....I'd say around 60 million...

[bob]

I think fellowship will open huge but drop off faster than most think.still, around 200 million domestically(and a lot more overseas).
i think you guys are underestimating vanilla sky.I mean,you guys think that a movie directed by one of the most up and coming directors out there(cameron crowe)and starring tom cruise,not to mention jason lee, who is always good,won't even make 100 million?

also, i think the majestic and royal tenenbaums(depending on how wide the release)will do better than expected.

i think gangs of new york will end up with about 60 million total(this was definitely the wrong project for miramax to invest almost 100 million in).

[Radewart]

I hope Ali is not hurt by its central character's religious beliefs. Muhummad Ali is a great man who is against violence, a majority of muslims are! You can't blame a whole race or relgious gruops because of the actions of a few madmen. A few closet racists may protest the movie, but I hope America as a whole is smarter than that!

[Nate6]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by bob:

i think you guys are underestimating vanilla sky.I mean,you guys think that a movie directed by one of the most up and coming directors out there(cameron crowe)and starring tom cruise,not to mention jason lee, who is always good,won't even make 100 million?

also, i think the majestic and royal tenenbaums(depending on how wide the release)will do better than expected.

i think gangs of new york will end up with about 60 million total(this was definitely the wrong project for miramax to invest almost 100 million in).</font>

Wow, Jason Lee! Big starpower there! He's a good actor, but he doesn't exactly pull the crowds in.

I sincerely hope that by now Cameron Crowe can stop being called an up-and-coming director. He's been involved in films for nearly 20 years now!

Like I mentioned before, I think THE MAJESTIC will likely get around $101 million. Frank Darabont's last film, THE GREEN MILE, got $120 million at the B.O. Granted, it was based on the smash hit serial novel series by Stephen King and starred Jim Carrey, as far as I know the buzz is getting big for this movie. It all depends on whether or not Warner Bros gives it a wide release.

GANGS OF NEW YORK is Miramax's most expensive film ever (I think the budget ended up at $94 million or something) and Bob is right, it will be a long road to profitability. I predicted about $72 million, I'm thinking now that it will likely be lower.

[Nate6]

Oops, I mean THE GREEN MILE starred Tom Hanks, and THE MAJESTIC stars Jim Carrey. D'oh!

[Narst]

Yeah, I think Not Another Teen Movie will make around 35 million dollars. Remember Dude, Where's My Car made over 45 million at the same exact time last year.

[idealdiscountdude]

December 7th

Ali - $138 million
Oceans 11 - $145 million

December 14th

Vanilla Sky - $42 million
Not Another Teen Movie - $31 million

December 19th

The Fellowship Of The Ring - $230 million

December 21st

Gangs Of New York - $75 million
Joe Somebody - $51 million
Jimmy Neutron - $22 million
The Royal Tenenbaums - $108 million
The Majestic - $114 million

December 25th

Bad Company - $74 million
The Shipping News - $126 million
The Time Machine - $147 million
A Beautiful Mind - $37 million
The Hours - $30 million

December 26th

How High - $15 million


Vanilla Sky will flop, similarly to Proof Of Life last year....its not a very appealing movie for the Christmas season.

Ali will play like The Green Mile, small declines.

[dh1989]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by idealdiscountdude:

The Royal Tenenbaums - $108 million


</font>

I don't think it could possibly reach that level. I do believe it wil perform better than "Bottle Rocket" and "Rushmore" but not that much. With neither of those films being huge known hits and "Tanenbaums" starting in limited release will make it almost impossible to reach that number. Plus Oscars don't usually shine on Wes Anderson.

[ak]

I don't understand some - what is their attraction toward The Royal Ten-fat-bums?

It looks ok, but nothing for me to get excited about at all.

[bob]

I know Cameron Crowe isn't technically new or anything, all i meant is that his movies have started getting serious attention since jerry maguire.

P.S. i realize jason lee isn't a huge star, i added his name because he kicks ass.

[ANTBond007]

December 7th

Ali - $115 million
Oceans 11 - $125 million

December 14th

Vanilla Sky - $74 million
Not Another Teen Movie - $25 million

December 19th

The Fellowship Of The Ring - $225 million

December 21st

Gangs Of New York - $63 million
Joe Somebody - $33 million
Jimmy Neutron - $52 million
The Royal Tenenbaums - $17 million
The Majestic - $102 million

December 25th

Bad Company - $55 million
The Shipping News - $62 million
The Time Machine - $75 million
A Beautiful Mind - $34 million
The Hours - $28 million

December 26th

How High - $12 million

[TheMovieMinor]

The Time Machine has annouced on Sept 10 it will be moved to February 8th, because there was to much competition during Christmas.

[Irene Manor]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by ak:
I don't understand some - what is their attraction toward The Royal Ten-fat-bums?
</font>

It's all about Kumar!

[bob]

I'm actually kind of glad the time machine got pushed back because it looks pretty good and i wouldn't want to see it bomb just cause the market is crowded(if it bombs in february we'll know people just aren't interesed).

[ak]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Irene Manor:
It's all about Kumar!</font>

Kumar?????????????????????????????????????

[Vlad15]

Opening Week/ Total
December 7th
Ali - 30 million/ 145 million
Ocean - 25 million/ 115 million

December 14th
Not Another Teen Movie - 18 mill/ 45 million
Vannila Sky - 125 million

December 19th
Lord of the Rings - 50 million/200 million

December 21st
Gangs of New York - 12 million/45 million
Accidental Spy - 8 million/ 40 million
Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius - 15 mill/75 mill
Joe Somebody - 4 million/10 million
the Majestic - 17 million/ 120 million

December 25th
Bad Company - 13 million/50 million
A Beautiful Mind - 11 million/80 million
Shipping News - 8 million/55 million
How High - 8 million/15 million

TIME MACHINE HAS BEEN CHANGED TO FEBRUARY 7TH BUT IT WILL BE A HUGE MOVIE!

[bob]

Don't underestimate tim allen.Galaxy quest opened winter 99 and made over 70 million.

[Nate6]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by bob:
Don't underestimate tim allen.Galaxy quest opened winter 99 and made over 70 million.</font>

The most surprising thing about GALAXY QUEST was that it opened over Christmas weekend and made only about $9 million, but good word-of-mouth propelled it to $70 million, and it became a HUGE hit on video.

[dh1989]

Tim Allen should not be underestimated. He is a very funny and appealing guy. He was on a great T.V. show and is now a bankable funny guy. I think "Joe Somebody" will perform exactly like "Galaxy Quest". It will open with around 10 million but will have superb word of mouth and keep going untill 70 million and those unlucky too see it in theatres will propel to a status as a hure rental hit and I will surely buy the DVD.

[Scorchlord]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by dh1989:
Tim Allen....appealing guy.</font>

He sure is, just ask Pablo Escobar...



[This message has been edited by Scorchlord (edited 09-24-2001).]

[ANTBond007]

Gotta let my thoughts out. Tuukka, ak, I'm sorry. After reading The Fellowship of the Ring, I can definitely see why you two think it will be a massive hit http://www.joblo.com/ubb/biggrin.gif

...but I still think Attack of the Clones will do better in the long run http://www.joblo.com/ubb/wink.gif

[Tuukka]

I'm glad you liked it, AntBond! I hope you will read TTT and ROTK as well, I think that the story get's better and better the further it goes, with the last half of Return Of The King being the best part.

As for the B.O, I think that at the moment AOTC is a safer bet commercially. Even if I disliked PM, many people liked it, especially kids. A film can't do one billion only with the help of hype. And since AOTC is looking a lot better in every way (I follow the script and casting reports pretty closely), I think it will make at least 700 million worldwide, at minimum.

New Line will launch their big, mainstream marketing campaign for LOTR with the release of the new trailer withing two weeks. I hope they handle it well, because the success of a film is always largely dependent in marketing. I think FOTR will make 500 million worldwide at minimum, but it's hard to tell how far it will travel.

BTW, here are some official industry opening weekend predictions. I think this was originally printed in Entertainment Weekly:

Ali (ALI) Dec. 7 $35.5 million
Ocean's 11 (OCEAN) Dec. 7 $36.1 million
Not Another Teen Movie (TEENM) Dec. 14 $16.7 million
Vanilla Sky (VNILA) Dec. 14 $29.2 million
Lord of the Rings (LRDRN) Dec. 19 $85.71 million (for five days)
Gangs of New York (GANGS) Dec. 21 $23.4 million
Joe Somebody (JOESB) Dec. 21 $16.6 million
The Majestic (MJSTC) Dec. 21 $28.8 million
Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius (NUTRN) Dec. 21 $26.3 million
The Royal Tenenbaums (TNNBM) Dec. 21 $16.7 million
Bad Company (BADCO) Dec. 25 $20.8 million
A Beautiful Mind (BMIND) Dec. 25 $19.9 million

I think that there is no chance all these films are going to open this big. Some people are being too hopeful. And LOTR will have FIVE movies opening two days after it. One to three of those five films are going to perform seriously below expectations, because of the extremely crowded market. If LOTR:FOTR is the juggernaut many predict it to be, it would be foolish to open so many big movies just two days after. I hope they are sensible and change the dates. Or start with a limited release and make it wider in January.


[This message has been edited by Tuukka (edited 09-20-2001).]

[ANTBond007]

Tuukka, I'm 115 pages into The Two Towers, and 'Gandalf the White' has just appeared http://www.joblo.com/ubb/biggrin.gif. I was frickin' cheering when he showed up...

I also find your $85.71 million opening prediction very reasonable. I was a bit...shocked when you thought the film would gross well over $100 million with all of the competition and the fact that it won't yet be vacation time for schools.


[This message has been edited by ANTBond007 (edited 09-21-2001).]

[Tuukka]

Have I said that at some point? I doubt it, because the biggest five day B.O ever is around 75 million... Or was it for three days? Does anyone know?

[Nate6]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Tuukka:
Have I said that at some point? I doubt it, because the biggest five day B.O ever is around 75 million... Or was it for three days? Does anyone know?</font>

That would be three days.

THE LOST WORLD grossed $92 million over four days.

[ANTBond007]

The Phantom Menace grossed $105 million over five days.

[Benny]

I think Ali and Oceans Eleven (both of which look awesome) will both gross over $30 Million in their first week, a la The World is Not Enough and Sleepy Hollow.

[MovieFreak15]

What is up with your "Vanilla Sky" predictions. Tom Cruise, Penelope Cruz, and Cameron Crowe equal big hit. I think it will be sort of like "What Women Want". It will be big. My prediction stands at $160 million.

[Tuukka]

Vanilla Sky is VERY different than What Women Want. I firmly believe that the film will be good, since the original spanish film is hihgly praised and Crowe is a very good director. But it might be too strange for the mainstream audiences. Anyway, 100+ million is a certainty.

[max]

VANILLA SKY will flop. Penelope Cruz is box-office poison. Audiences don't want to see real-life couples on screen. They have zero reel chemistry. Cameron Crowe's ALMOST FAMOUS, despite ecstatic reviews, failed to make a dent at the box-office. Tom Cruise is not invincible at the box-office. ASS WIDE SHIT is proof.