Lord Of The Rings, Oscar Contender??

[dicaprio_travolta_man]

What's up everyone??? Now I know what your thinking, Not Another LOTR topic.... But hey I have some insight on why this will be an oscar contender, here's my thought's:

The longest nominated film win's best picture 44% of the time. The average best picture run's 156 minutes. Over the last decade, the average best picture run's 152 minutes, only two film's ever have won best picture with a running time of less then 100 minutes Annie Hall is one and the other is Driving Miss Daisy, one thing to keep in mind, the secret to picking best picture is in the directing oscar.. You see, shortly before the Oscar's the Director's Guild announces it's winner for direction of a feature film, so if Peter Jackson get's this award (which I am sure he will) LOTR should have no problem whatsoever taking the best pic award at the Oscar's, why you ask, becuase the DGA prize predicts who will win best director 90% of the time, if Jackson get's this award don't be surprized if LOTR takes best picture.... Peter Jackson's LOTR should win best pic, if he get's best director, why? because look at it this way DGA = Best Director = Best Picture....

Anyway what do you think, will LOTR win best pic? and will Peter Jackson win Best Director? IMO I think, like I said up there, if Jackson gets the DGA, he will get best director, which means LOTR will get best picture, if this does not happen though I think LOTR will be nominated for best picture but loose to an other film.. Now for my real question, what Oscar's will LOTR be nominated for and which ones will it get? here's my choices:

**Best Director, **Best Picture, *Best screenplay, *best costume design, Best Sound, Best Song, and *Best Score.. So what do you think????

* means it will get this award....

** means it is very possible, and at times likely it will get this award.....

[This message has been edited by dicaprio_travolta_man (edited 12-10-2001).]

[ilovemovies]

Most of the time it seems but not always. Here are some examples where your theory is wrong:
Last year Ang Lee won the DGA award and Gladiator won best picture.
In 1998 Steven Spielberg won the DGA but Shakespear in Love won Best Picture.
In 1995 Ron Howard won the dga but Braveheart won best picture(funny since Howard wasn't even nominated at the oscars even though I agree with the dga and think that Howard's direction is superior to Gibson's and I also thought Apollo 13 was a better movie than Braveheart)
In 1989 Oliver Stone won the dga yet Driving Miss Daisy won best picture.
In 1985 Steven Spielberg won the dga yet Out of Africa won best picture.

[This message has been edited by ilovemovies (edited 12-10-2001).]

[dicaprio_travolta_man]

I didnt say that the thearoy was alwasy right, did I? sure it is opssible for a director to win the DGA and not get best director, I was using an example, I based my theroy on the facts, nothin but the facts, I did the math and figured out that the person who gets the DGA also gets the best director award 90% of the time I didnt say 100% I said 90%, and that my friend is the truth, so dont tell me that I'm wrong unless you can back up your statement.... http://www.joblo.com/ubb/smile.gif

[Scorchlord]

I think Peter Jackson HAS to be nominated for Best Director, simply because of all he had to go through with this. I mean, he spent years of his life on this project. He bled with it, sweated with it, dreamed with it, slept with it...you get the idea. As large scale as this is, and as good as it apparently is (judging by the reviews), he should be nominated...

...not that the Oscars mean anything. For crying out loud, they didn't even nominate Almost Famous for best picture last year, and that was so vastly superior to Gladiator it isn't even funny.

[Zed]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by ilovemovies:
Most of the time it seems but not always. Here are some examples where your theory is wrong:
Last year Ang Lee won the DGA award and Gladiator won best picture.

[This message has been edited by ilovemovies (edited 12-10-2001).]</font>

Just an acclaration.....last year directing Oscar was wonby Steven Sohenberg.

[dicaprio_travolta_man]

Do you remember me saying 90%?? I did not say that this is always the case, I said 90% not 100% so instaed of trying to prove me wrong (which is going to be hard because i'm right) just answer the question.. Thank You

[chumo]

I read in the site theonering.net about all fo the predictions and submissions for Oscars they will have for FOTR. They are about 15 and not only do I think it's never been done before, I believe this movie can take over 10 oscars if all goes well. I saw a special on Sci Fi channel last night which they will be showing again tonight at 10pm and from the looks of it; this movie will be the one to rule them all.

[FlickJunkie]

I don't think it will get any nominations outside technical awards. I mean, awards in the acting, directing, screenplay and picture categories only go to Dramas like Traffic or Saving Private Ryan, or "classy" Comedies like Shakespeare in Love and Chocolat. Not Fantasy films like Lord of the Rings. They only get technical Oscar awards.

[Scorchlord]

You mean like Star Wars never got nominated? Or Gladiator?

The Lord of the Rings is a drama.

[Mike Damone]

While I have to admit Star Wars was much more revolutionary when it came out, I would guess FOTR will get close to the recognition Star Wars got in 77.

Supporting Actor
Art Direction*
Best Picture
Costume Design*
Directing
Film Editing*
Music*
Set Direction*
Sound*
Special Achievement Award*
Visual Effects*
Original Screenplay
*=win

I think Set Direction and Art Direction are one award now, and FOTR would obviously be Adapted Screenplay. That would be 11 nominations and 7 wins. I think that will be the best it can do.

DT Man, I don't think anyone questions your math. We can all see you've researched this. However, even you can agree it has only happened 90% of the time(leaves some room for error). Also, the logic you rely most heavily on is "if Peter Jackson get's this award", and since this hasn't been decided yet you can't use this to support your best picture prediction. You said you are sure Peter Jackson will win the DGA, but how do you know this http://www.joblo.com/ubb/confused.gif. He'll have some tough competition in Ridley Scott (Black Hawk Down), Ron Howard (A Perfect Mind), Frank Darabont (The Majestic), Michael Mann (Ali), Lasse Hallstrom (The Shipping News), Jean-Pierre Jeunet (Amelie), and Wes Anderson (The Royal Tenenbaums).


[This message has been edited by Mike Damone (edited 12-10-2001).]

[dicaprio_travolta_man]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Mike Damone:
While I have to admit Star Wars was much more revolutionary when it came out, I would guess FOTR will get close to the recognition Star Wars got in 77.

Supporting Actor
Art Direction*
Best Picture
Costume Design*
Directing
Film Editing*
Music*
Set Direction*
Sound*
Special Achievement Award*
Visual Effects*
Original Screenplay
*=win

I think Set Direction and Art Direction are one award now, and FOTR would obviously be Adapted Screenplay. That would be 11 nominations and 7 wins. I think that will be the best it can do.

DT Man, I don't think anyone questions your math. We can all see you've researched this. However, even you can agree it has only happened 90% of the time(leaves some room for error). Also, the logic you rely most heavily on is "if Peter Jackson get's this award", and since this hasn't been decided yet you can't use this to support your best picture prediction. You said you are sure Peter Jackson will win the DGA, but how do you know this http://www.joblo.com/ubb/confused.gif. He'll have some tough competition in Ridley Scott (Black Hawk Down), Ron Howard (A Perfect Mind), Frank Darabont (The Majestic), Michael Mann (Ali), Lasse Hallstrom (The Shipping News), Jean-Pierre Jeunet (Amelie), and Wes Anderson (The Royal Tenenbaums).


[This message has been edited by Mike Damone (edited 12-10-2001).]</font>

Yes I agree 100% with you, your correct, he will have plenty of competition, I think he will get it because of the time and effort he took to make this film thats what i am going by.... And yes 90% does leave room for error, but I dont think they will make an error this year, but they might, you never know.. I also agree with you on your perdictions, could'nt have said it better myself...... Good Work..... One more thing, as you can see i tried to make IF a key word in my opening message, just to get my point across....

[This message has been edited by dicaprio_travolta_man (edited 12-10-2001).]

[FlickJunkie]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Scorchlord:
You mean like Star Wars never got nominated? Or Gladiator?

The Lord of the Rings is a drama.</font>

Gladitor was more of a Drama and that was in the 70s when Star Wars was nominated and that was the last time a movie of that genre was nominated. And Lord of the Rings is not a Drama in the true sense of the word. Okay?

[Scorchlord]

I would characterize the Fellowship of the Ring the same way I'd characterize Gladiator - long, drawn out moments of dialogue with interludes of swift violence and action. FOTR has little action in it, and even if PJ added some, expanded some scenes, it's still a drama/adventure.

[Scarface989]

i think it'll be nominated for several non-technical awards, but no big wins. theres usually 1 movie it seems they put in as a joke to fill up best pic space like Chocolat, even if they are good movies, it seems like they're nominated to puposely not win.

[HBO]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Scarface989:
...theres usually 1 movie it seems they put in as a joke to fill up best pic space like Chocolat...</font>

or The Full Monty & Goodfellas

[Scorchlord]

Goodfellas?