very first in depth analysis of Matrix Reloaded box office prediction

[Wildbilld]

I've done the calculations and predictions.
As of now I have The Matrix Reloaded making $474 before getting bumped from the #1 spot and $550 in all!

Check out how I got there!
http://www27.brinkster.com/wildbilld/matrixoutlook.html

[Muha]

first off, good job by coming up with those figures.


but the fact remains that the matrix 2 will not make that much money

in fact, i dont see how a rated r movie can pull that much in... its not possible.


what you suggest would double the record set by beverly hills cop 1. i can see it beating it, but not doubling it.

[Wildbilld]

The key is, look at the competition! (as of now) it has a month all to its self!

[Tuukka]

It's too early to say anything about the competition. You should remember that quite often the movies that make the most money are not hyped one year in advance. May-June is always crowded with high profile movies.

It should be remembered that Matrix has limited appeal. It's huge among the 15-35 year old male action fans, but what about all the others? It's not a movie for all audiences like Star Wars, LOTR or Harry Potter. It's pretty rare to find a person over 35 years old who digs Matrix. And Matrix is rated R which will lessen it's B.O. The biggest R rated film ever did 235 million.

As for competition, X-men 2 plays to exactly the same audience and it's still going strong in it's third weekend. Then there are the several other high profile movies that we are not aware of yet.

I predict Matrix Reloaded making money in the 200-300 million range. Most likely around 250 million.

[Tuukka]

Here are the exit-poll grades for Matrix (www.cinemascore.com):

Grades Male Female
Under 21 A+ A-
21 to 34 A- B
35 and Up B+ C+

And before you go and say "B+ from men and C+ from women over 35 is not bad at all", you should remember that these men and women are among the minority of middle-agers who were attracted by the action-oriented, techno-pumping trailers and Keanu Reeves, and still they didn't like the film that much. The average 35+ years old person likes it a lot less.

If you look at the exit poll numbers of just about ANY 300+ million crosser (or even a 250+ million crosser), they all have one thing in common: They are equally liked by both sexes and all generations. The cross-over ability is the thing that makes the biggest B.O hits. And Matrix just doesn't have it.

Ironically, Matrix is liked the most by the people who are not allowed to see it in theatres (the teenagers, that is).


[This message has been edited by Tuukka (edited 06-14-2002).]

[Negrotigre]

The matrix sequel is capable of becoming the biggest movie ever! There has been near endless speculation about this sequel for years. The special effects will more than likely be extroadinary, and the fight scenes will also be a draw as well. Some of you are just bent out of shape because some of your favorite sagas are being challenged for box office supremacy.


"It could be worse. A woman could cut off your penis while you're sleeping and toss it out the window of a moving car."

[Jason Voorhees]

Originally posted by Negrotigre
Some of you are just bent out of shape because some of your favorite sagas are being challenged for box office supremacy.

Well, I wouldn't say that. I think most of us are just trying to be realistic. Personally, I think the film will do great.

Welcome to the boards, by the way.

[Negrotigre]

Thanks Jason, I appreciate the welcome.

[Jason Voorhees]

Originally posted by Negrotigre
Thanks Jason, I appreciate the welcome.

You're welcome, dude :).

[free]

I predict from $300 Million to $350 million, and $7 of that will be from my pocket ;)