Next Weekend Box Office Predictions (Harry Potter, Half Past Dead [Archive]

dh1989

11-07-2002, 04:11 PM

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets- This film is going to be huge. The first film opened with over 90 Million and became the highest grossing film of 2001(It also landed a spot on the biggest domestic grossers of all-time). It performed amazingly and also received glowing reviews and became quite a popular film. The sequel is going to be amazing. The film looks darker, more violent, better plotted, and will contain more action. I predict an opening of 104 million.

Half Past Dead- This film will do horribly. Chamber of Secrets will be getting all the press, sellout shows, and the good reviews! :) Steven Seagal is just not a big draw and this film has bad trailers. It will open small and fall quickly. I see an opening of 3 million at the best.

Horror whore

11-07-2002, 04:37 PM

Harry Potter- 102 Million (Should have huge opening, but will fall quickly)
Half Past Dead- 6 Million (Looks like crap)

dh1989

11-07-2002, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by Horror whore
Harry Potter- 102 Million (Should have huge opening, but will fall quickly)

Why do you think the sequel would fall quickly? The original did not......

sleekproductions

11-07-2002, 04:42 PM

Harry Potter - 100
Half Past Dead - 8

B-ball Dude

11-07-2002, 06:27 PM

This thread is kinda early but i'll put my final predictions in on sunday night.

1.Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets- 115 million
2.8 Mile- 15 million
3.Half Past Dead- 13 million (I predict all the older HP fans that can't get in to HP because of sold out shows will go to this)
4.The Santa Claus 2- 11 million
5.I Spy- 6 million
7.Jackass: The Movie- 3.8 million
8.Columbine- 3 million
9.MBFGW- 2 million
10.Jonah- 1.8 million

Tom Samborski

11-07-2002, 06:36 PM

Harry Potter and The Chamber Of Secrets- $103.6 million
Half Past Dead- $4.2 million

blankpage

11-07-2002, 07:29 PM

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets- $98.5 Million
Half Past Dead- $2 Million

I don't think COS will fall quickly. Week two should bring in around 60 0r 50 Million dollars.(Just using last years statistics). If the film gets positive reviews by the general audience's,it will do just fine :).

Nate6

11-07-2002, 07:40 PM

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets - $102.2 million
Half Past Dead - $5.2 million (at the most)

I'll have full predictions when I see this weekend's results (this thread was made slightly early)

Mike

11-09-2002, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by Nate6
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets - $102.2 million

Nate, I swear to god I'm not copying your HARRY POTTER prediction but I wrote out my Friday-Sunday daily predictions for it and 102.2 Million is exactly what it came out to when I added it all up...

HERE'S MY "VERY EARLY" PREDICTIONS:

1. HARRY POTTER - 102.2 MILLION
2. 8 MILE - 33.6 MILLION
3. THE RING - 13 MILLION
4. THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 - 12 MILLION
5. HALF PAST DEAD - 9 MILLION
6. I SPY - 5.4 MILLION
7. MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING - 4.7 MILLION
8. FRIDA - 3.6 MILLION
9. JACKASS - 3.5 MILLION
10. SWEET HOME ALABAMA - 2.5 MILLION

I think 8 MILE will drop around 40% which will be really good for its second weekend. Then afterwards the drops won't be quite as big. I think THE RING might see a drop of around 20% and it will cross the 100 Million mark. THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 should drop around 40% due to most of its audience going to HARRY POTTER. I see a 40% drop for I SPY as well. MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING should still continue to hold up well and might see a drop of around 15%. JACKASS has been holding up better than I expected, even with 8 MILE opening, so I'd have to go with a drop of around 50% which isn't bad for a movie like this. And I see SWEET HOME ALABAMA dropping around 30%.

idealdiscountdude

11-09-2002, 03:12 PM

For the next 3 weeks Harry Potter is set to rule the box office roost.

Harry Potter and The Chamber Of Secrets should no doubt top its predecessor's opening of $90 million. I predict that CoS will gross between $98 and $105 million this coming weekend. It will not beat Spiderman's opening gross as CoS has a near 3 hour run time.

CoS should hold up well over the next 3 weeks with the US's Thanksgiving Holiday weekend falling on its third weekend.

I predict that CoS will outgross it's predecesor in the long run...

Half Past Dead will have a mediocre debut. This flick seems to lack the appeal that Seagal's last flick (with rapper DMX) Exit Wounds had. That flick opened with I believe $15 million. Half Past Dead should do about half the business Exit Wounds did ....I predict an $ 8 million opening with heavy declines in the coming weeks.

Jerk Shapiro

11-09-2002, 03:42 PM

HARRY POTTER AND THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS: 84.7 million

( The first movie was boring, and people know this, and even the CHAMBER book sucked, so this one will not do as good as the first )

8 MILE: 16.1 million

THE SANTA CLAUSE 2: 15.8 million

THE RING: 13.5 million

I SPY: 9.4 million

SWEET HOME ALABAMA: 6.1 million

JACKASS: THE MOVIE: 4.3 million

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING: 3 million

JONAH: A VEGGIETALES MOVIE: 2.3 million

HALF-PAST DEAD: 1.8 million

Mike

11-09-2002, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by idealdiscountdude
This flick seems to lack the appeal that Seagal's last flick (with rapper DMX) Exit Wounds had. That flick opened with I believe $15 million. Half Past Dead should do about half the business Exit Wounds did ....I predict an $ 8 million opening with heavy declines in the coming weeks.

Actually, Exit Wounds debuted with 18+ Million. I definitely don't see Half Past Dead doing as well, and like you, I think it will do half the business...

Mike

11-09-2002, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by MOVIE-Maniac 8
HARRY POTTER AND THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS: 84.7 million

( The first movie was boring, and people know this, and even the CHAMBER book sucked, so this one will not do as good as the first )

Wow, I don't know why you think that but I definitely have to disagree with you. This one will be HUGE, trust me, it will open with more than the first one, and possibly have a higher total when it is all said and done...

Wildbilld

11-09-2002, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by Horror whore
Harry Potter- 102 Million (Should have huge opening, but will fall quickly)

I think it will fall quickly too, there are too many good movies coming out after it, Nov 27 weekend is packed. ;) :p :)

dh1989

11-09-2002, 04:46 PM

I do not think Harry Potter will fall quickly. The only main competition is Treasure Planet and that looks like another Atlantis.

Strider

11-09-2002, 05:13 PM

I say Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets will open with a $105 million-dollar opening weekend, but I also believe the movie will fall quickly. I mean, I'm gonna go out on a limb, and say the boy wizard's gonna have his ass royally kicked the next week from James Bond.

Strider

B-ball Dude

11-09-2002, 05:27 PM

Here are the listings for showings at my theatre, it is in the biggest auditorium with 300 seats:

Friday- 3:15 PM- Sold Out
6:30 PM- Sold Out
10:00 PM- Sold Out

Saturday- 3:15 PM- Sold Out
6:30 PM- Sold Out
10:00 PM- Sold Out

Sunday- 3:15 PM- Sold Out
6:30 PM- Sold Out
10:00 PM- 287 Tix Sold

Monday- 3:15 PM- 288 Tix Sold
6:30 PM- Sold Out
10:00- 253 Tix Sold

Tuesday- 3:15 PM- 230 Tix Sold
6:30 PM- 295 Tix Sold
10:00 PM-124 Tix Sold

Wednesday- 3:15 PM- 56 Tix Sold
6:30 PM- 239 Tix Sold
10:00 PM-75 Tix Sold

Thursday- 3:15 PM- 82 Tix Sold
6:30 PM- 276 Tix Sold
10:00 PM- 123 Tix Sold

Though's aren't 100 % accurate but close to it.

Wildbilld

11-09-2002, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by Strider
I mean, I'm gonna go out on a limb, and say the boy wizard's gonna have his ass royally kicked the next week from James Bond.

Strider

I hoping that will happen, I would love to see Potter drop 50+% :p :p :p :p

MR.HOLLYWOOD001ME

11-10-2002, 09:40 AM

1. harry Potter 2 - 100,000,000
2. 8 mile - 22,600,000
3. the santa clause 2 - 16,000,000
4. the ring - 14,200,000
5. half past dead - 11,100,000

dh1989

11-10-2002, 11:30 AM

Harry Potter won't be hit hard by Bond. Different demographics. Plus Potter will obviously do better than James Bond. Bond pretty much aims at men 15-50 and that is it except for a few people in diff. demographics. Harry Potter appeals to all. :cool:

thompsoncory

11-10-2002, 11:51 AM

1) HARRY POTTER & THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS - $102 million
2) 8 MILE - $38 million
3) THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 - $17 million
4) THE RING - $16 million
5) HALF PAST DEAD - $10 million
6) I SPY - $7 million
7) JACKASS: THE MOVIE - $5.5 million
8) MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING - $4.9 million
9) SWEET HOME ALABAMA - $3.1 million
10) FRIDA - $2.1 million

8 MILE won't decline that much at all. It's got great WOM and audiences are packing the seats. And it is one of the few films that will not be affected at all by HARRY POTTER.

Mike

11-10-2002, 12:15 PM

Originally posted by dh1989
Harry Potter won't be hit hard by Bond. Different demographics. Plus Potter will obviously do better than James Bond. Harry Potter appeals to all. :cool:

I agree with you... I don't think Harry Potter will decline anymore in its second weekend than the first one did, even with James Bond opening, there's room for both of them at the Box Office...

ANTBond007

11-10-2002, 02:13 PM

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $76 million
8 Mile $29 million
The Ring $15 million
The Santa Clause 2 $12 million
Half Past Dead $5 million

Mike

11-10-2002, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by ANTBond007
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $76 million

8 MILE had no problem making over 54 Million this weekend on 2,400+ screens yet you actually think HARRY POTTER will open with only 76 Million on 3,500+ screens!? I definitely don't see it, in fact anything below 90 Million would be a disappointment, I'd even find it disappointing if it opened with less than 100 Million...

Wildbilld

11-10-2002, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by thompsoncory
1) HARRY POTTER & THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS - $102 million
2) 8 MILE - $38 million
3) THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 - $17 million
4) THE RING - $16 million
5) HALF PAST DEAD - $10 million
6) I SPY - $7 million
7) JACKASS: THE MOVIE - $5.5 million
8) MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING - $4.9 million
9) SWEET HOME ALABAMA - $3.1 million
10) FRIDA - $2.1 million

8 MILE won't decline that much at all. It's got great WOM and audiences are packing the seats. And it is one of the few films that will not be affected at all by HARRY POTTER.

Maybe Greek Wedding wont be affected, I mean that continues so amaze everone! :p :D

idealdiscountdude

11-10-2002, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by thompsoncory
8 MILE won't decline that much at all. It's got great WOM and audiences are packing the seats. And it is one of the few films that will not be affected at all by HARRY POTTER.

Acually 8 Mile saw a DECREASE in ticket sales on Saturday......so if past cases are correct, 8 Mile will have 40-50% dropoffs over the next coming weeks.....which are somewhat normal, but still large declines.

ANTBond007

11-10-2002, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by Mike
8 MILE had no problem making over 54 Million this weekend on 2,400+ screens yet you actually think HARRY POTTER will open with only 76 Million on 3,500+ screens!? I definitely don't see it, in fact anything below 90 Million would be a disappointment, I'd even find it disappointing if it opened with less than 100 Million...

It's a gut feeling, Mike. Chamber of Secrets just isn't as hyped as Sorcerer's Stone was, plus there's more competition. Chamber of Secrets is a sequel, and sequels tend to make less money, as I'm sure you know. Sorcerer's Stone is considered a good movie, but a rather ho-hum. I think this will affect Chamber of Secrets' ticket sales.

I could be wrong, but I don't think I am. An opening over $100 million is absolutely ludicrous.

Wildbilld

11-10-2002, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by ANTBond007
An opening over $100 million is absolutely ludicrous.

Could you imagine if it makes $100,000,001?
:p :p :p

ANTBond007

11-10-2002, 04:59 PM

LOL Wildbilld. I should say it's not ludicrous, but to expect something like that is.

Wildbilld

11-10-2002, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by ANTBond007
LOL Wildbilld. I should say it's not ludicrous, but to expect something like that is.

Wonder if something like ever happened? Maybe not that high of a gross, but what movie could be so lucky to edge out an extra mil:rolleyes: :p :rolleyes:

dh1989

11-10-2002, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by ANTBond007
Chamber of Secrets just isn't as hyped as Sorcerer's Stone

Um, where did you get that? CoS is much more hyped than its original. Better trailers. better posters. more action. An over 100 million opening is expected and very plausible.

ANTBond007

11-10-2002, 10:40 PM

Let's put it this way. I watch several shows aimed at the audience they're targeting. I've seen three TV spots. At this time last year, I couldn't go five minutes without seeing the title "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone."

Why does it matter so much to everybody what I think, anyway?

Jason

11-10-2002, 11:34 PM

I agree, there hasn't been many TV spots on television as of late. I might have seen two or three but that's about all. The only advertising I do see is when I'm in a subway station and there are posters showing individual pictures of the kid's faces.

TheMovieMinor

11-11-2002, 12:01 AM

Well as I thought the First Harry Potter just plain old sucked.
I thought I would be up for the second one, but it just looks plain old sucky. Cant wait for LOTR: TTT, although the first one just plain old sucked.

Anyways, BO time.

Harry Potter will stay on top for a short time.
79.3 million
Half Past Dead, will be half past dead in the corner of number 10. 3.2
8 mile will drop down about 8 miles to 28.4.
Femme Fatale, what?
and then thats all I can care about now. DAD will do awesome the upcoming weekend after Potter day.

Mahk

Mike

11-11-2002, 12:07 AM

Originally posted by Wildbilld
Could you imagine if it makes $100,000,001?
:p :p :p

LOL! That's very funny...

Anyway, I've seen a ton of TV spots for it, and honestly, even if it didn't have any TV spots it would still be huge...

ANTBond007

11-11-2002, 10:13 AM

We'll see, we'll see...

dh1989

11-11-2002, 01:24 PM

The new Harry Potter film has already done some great business in the UK. Chamber of Secrets grossed £7.8 million pounds from special screenings in the UK this weekend. That is over a million pounds more than what the first Potter film grossed in special screenings the weekend prior to official release. It has broken records. Here is an article from Yahoo! News UK and Ireland.....

Harry Potter breaks box office records during preview weekend
Weekend previews of Harry Potter And The Chamber Of Secrets look set to break UK box office records.

Warner Bros estimate the film made £7.8million over the weekend.

That compares to £6.6million made by Harry Potter And The Philosopher's Stone when it previewed last year.

The first film held the record for the film which made the most money in the UK during previews.

Analysts are now predicting the sequel will be a bigger box office hit than the first film which made over £58million in the UK alone reports http://www.variety.com.

Nate6

11-11-2002, 04:35 PM

Despite the fact that TV previews are not nearly as prevalent as they were last year, sheer hype will open it just above $100 million, easily.

Mike

11-11-2002, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by Mike
Nate, I swear to god I'm not copying your HARRY POTTER prediction but I wrote out my Friday-Sunday daily predictions for it and 102.2 Million is exactly what it came out to when I added it all up...

HERE'S MY "VERY EARLY" PREDICTIONS:

1. HARRY POTTER - 102.2 MILLION
2. 8 MILE - 33.6 MILLION
3. THE RING - 13 MILLION
4. THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 - 12 MILLION
5. HALF PAST DEAD - 9 MILLION
6. I SPY - 5.4 MILLION
7. MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING - 4.7 MILLION
8. FRIDA - 3.6 MILLION
9. JACKASS - 3.5 MILLION
10. SWEET HOME ALABAMA - 2.5 MILLION

I think 8 MILE will drop around 40% which will be really good for its second weekend. Then afterwards the drops won't be quite as big. I think THE RING might see a drop of around 20% and it will cross the 100 Million mark. THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 should drop around 40% due to most of its audience going to HARRY POTTER. I see a 40% drop for I SPY as well. MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING should still continue to hold up well and might see a drop of around 15%. JACKASS has been holding up better than I expected, even with 8 MILE opening, so I'd have to go with a drop of around 50% which isn't bad for a movie like this. And I see SWEET HOME ALABAMA dropping around 30%.

Since the weekend actuals are now out, here's my revised predictions for next weekend's Box Office:

1. HARRY POTTER - 102.2 MILLION
2. 8 MILE - 30.7 MILLION
3. THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 - 14.8 MILLION
4. THE RING - 13 MILLION
5. HALF PAST DEAD - 9 MILLION
6. I SPY - 5.3 MILLION
7. MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING - 5 MILLION
8. JACKASS - 3.6 MILLION
9. FRIDA - 3.1 MILLION
10. SWEET HOME ALABAMA - 2.7 MILLION
11. BOWLING FOR COLUMBINE - 1.7 MILLION
12. PUNCH DRUNK LOVE - 1.5 MILLION
13. FEMME FATALE - 1.4 MILLION

Movie_VIBE21

11-14-2002, 07:03 PM

1. HARRY POTTER - 87.8
2. 8 MILE - 22.00
3. HALF PAST DEAD - 18 000
4. THE RING - 13 MILLION
5. THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 - 10 MILLION
6. I SPY - 5.3 MILLION
7. MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING - 5 MILLION
9. FRIDA - 3.1 MILLION
8. JACKASS - 2.8 MILLION

these are before i have seen any theatre counts

Mike

11-15-2002, 12:44 AM

THEATER COUNTS:

HARRY POTTER AND THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS - 3,682 (NEW)
8 MILE - 2,499 (+29)
THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 - 3,346 (-6)
THE RING - 2,882 (-45)
HALF PAST DEAD - 2,113 (NEW)
I SPY - 2,611 (-571)
MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING - 1,812 (-163)
JACKASS - 2,413 (-119)
FRIDA - 519 (+200)
SWEET HOME ALABAMA - 1,469 (-535)
BOWLING FOR COLUMBINE - 248 (+26)
PUNCH DRUNK LOVE - 867 (-426)
FEMME FATALE - 1,066 (SAME)
GHOST SHIP - 1,175 (-1,186)
JONAH - 718 (-779)
RED DRAGON - 555 (-769)
ABANDON - 316 (-448)
COMEDIAN - 233 (-11)
REAL WOMEN HAVE CURVES - 154 (+8)
FAR FROM HEAVEN - 54 (+48)
ROGER DODGER - 48 (+14)
EL CRIMEN DE PADRE AMARO - 43 (NEW)
THE GREY ZONE - 36 (+1)
HEAVEN - 27 (-3)
STANDING IN THE SHADOWS OF MOTOWN - 23 (NEW)
THE RULES OF ATTRACTION - 21 (-84)
THE WEIGHT OF WATER - 12 (-2)
ARARAT - 5 (NEW)
INTERVIEW WITH THE ASSASSIN - 5 (NEW)
THE WAY HOME - 3 (NEW)

Jason

11-16-2002, 07:10 PM

Harry Potter 2 pulled in $28 million for its first day of American release. This is 11% below last year's Sorcer's Stone. The film should make approx. $75-$85 million for the weekend.

sleekproductions

11-16-2002, 07:17 PM

It looks as if Harry Potter may pull in a gross of 85-90 million. Though it only made 28.8 million on its first day, the word of mouth is quite good.

It also looks as if this movie will make about 300 million for the end of its run. All thing considered, inclduing international sales, this will make a huge profit, and I sure as hell don't see anything wrong with that. Even if it isn't as much as the first.

:cool:

ANTBond007

11-16-2002, 07:27 PM

I see Chamber pulling in about $260 million total. Word of mouth is good, yes, but it has a hell of a lot of competition coming -- starting next week with Die Another Day.

Wildbilld

11-16-2002, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by sleekproductions
It looks as if Harry Potter may pull in a gross of 85-90 million. Though it only made 28.8 million on its first day, the word of mouth is quite good.

the word of mouth is good, so it should get an increase on Sat

dh1989

11-16-2002, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by ANTBond007
I see Chamber pulling in about $260 million total. Word of mouth is good, yes, but it has a hell of a lot of competition coming -- starting next week with Die Another Day.

Chamber of Secrets is aiming towards a totally different demographic than Die Another Day. Parents will take their small kids to CoS, but they might be turned off by Die's amount of nudity and violence. Chamber of Secrets will remain strong over the next few weeks and it may still do better than the first one, if word of mouth is great(which it is).

B-ball Dude

11-16-2002, 09:25 PM

HARRY POTTER WILL DEFINITLY PASS 100 MILLION ON THE FIRST WEEKEND. TICKET SALES ARE GOING GREAT FOR THIS WHOLE WEEK. I CAN'T BELIEVE SOME OF YOU GUYS. AND THINKING ABOUT IT SOME OF YOU WHO SAID HARRY POTTER WILL MAKE 70 MILLION SAID THE POWERPUFF GIRLS MOVIE WOULD MAKE 80 MILLION. Well i'm sorry dudes and i'm not really trying to offend you but your pethetic.

And plus tickets for 6:30 showings until next friday are sold out so I think it will cross 100 milllion on the first weekend

Jason

11-16-2002, 09:30 PM

I don't seeing this one doing as well as the 1st but I do see it ending with about $280 million total.

P.S. Why is Harry Potter 3 coming out in 2004 and not 2003? I know that eventually all the movies that can be made will be made(the books take so long to be written) why don't the first four Harry Potter films come out yearly? Why have a one year gap?