Next Weekend B.O. Predictions (Solaris, Treasure Planet, 8 Crazy Nights, They, OPS)

[Mike]

EST. THEATER COUNTS

Treasure Planet - 3,100

Solaris - 2,600+

Eight Crazy Nights - 2,400+

Extreme Ops - 1,775

They - 1,600

Maid in Manhattan sneak (11/29) - 400+

Rabbit-Proof Fence (11/29) - 5


MY EARLY PREDICTIONS

SOLARIS (15-17 Million):

George Clooney, his ass, and a PG-13 rating will help this movie out but this romantic sc-fi drama may look too weird and unappealing for some people. Regardless, it should still do "decent" but I don't see a huge opening or finish. I have no idea why they are already talking about making a sequel because it's very doubtful this one will bring in big numbers...

TREASURE PLANET (25.3 Million):

This movie reminds me of ATLANTIS which opened during the summer with around only 21 Million and a finish of 80+ Million. Although this one looks "slightly" better I still don't see it doing great business. However, it should do a little better than ATLANTIS since it is debuting on Thanksgiving weekend so a lot of families will be going to the movies. Movies like this just don't bring in GREAT business at the Box Office. There's no way it will do as well as TOY STORY, TOY STORY 2, SHREK, MONSTERS, INC., ICE AGE, etc... Those movies have a lot of comedy and jokes in them and are more appealing to families... I guess we'll see though, but I don't think TREASURE PLANET will be able to pull in more than 31 Million next weekend...

8 CRAZY NIGHTS (13 Million):

Adam Sandler movies do great at the Box Office, however I don't see this PG-13 immature gross out cartoon doing nearly as well. It should do OK, but I don't see it making more than 60 Million and there's no way in hell it will see 100 Million...

EXTREME OPS (4.5 Million):

Even though they are a different genre, for some reason this wannabe teen action movie reminds me of last years teen comedy OUT COLD, which opened Thanksgiving week too. I'm sure EXTREME OPS will be pretty funny too, but not intentionally. Anyway, OUT COLD looked better and opened with 4.5 Million last year in 2,000+ theaters. EXTREME OPS is opening in less theaters and looks to be an EXTREME flOP. I definitely don't see it opening with more than 4.5 Million...

THEY (7 Million):

The fact that this mature supernatural horror/thriller has TV spots being shown non-stop and its trailer has been showing in front of THE RING is definitely a big plus. Another thing that will help is its PG-13 rating. So far the reviews have been decent so hopefully the word of mouth won't be too bad either. For some reason it reminds me of 2000's spring sleeper hit Final Destination, hopefully this one will be able to follow in its footsteps. If this can pull in a decent opening weekend then it will have room to expand since it's only opening in around 1,600 theaters. No matter what though THEY should do decent anyway, I don't see it being a complete flop...

[Jason]

My predictions: Solaris-------$15 million
8 Crazy Nights--$ 11 million
Treasure Planet---$20 million
They----------------$8 million

[Nate6]

As Mike said, Treasure Planet looks like Atlantis. Atlantis didn't do so well in relation to other Disney animated films. Harry Potter and Santa Clause 2 are still around. See what I'm getting at, folks?

That said, Solaris, despite having George Clooney and a PG-13, just looks really strange. Great, but strange, possibly not something a mass audience would enjoy.

PG-13 (teen-adult) cartoons never do well, as far as I remember. Eight Crazy Nights, despite having Sandler's name recognition, will not do very well.

They, well, could be a sleeper hit but it's opening in too few theatres.

Extreme Ops, oh, forget it.

And don't forget, these films will have to deal with Die Another Day, on its way to $47-52 million this weekend.

TREASURE PLANET - $21.2 million
SOLARIS - $17.8 million
EIGHT CRAZY NIGHTS - $8.2 million
THEY - $5.1 million
EXTREME OPS - $4.2 million

[dh1989]

Treasure Planet- This film will not do so well. It won't bomb by any stretch of imagination, but it won't do Chamber of Secrets business. It should do moderate business. I see it opening with about 23 million over the weekend.

Extreme Ops- This film looks good and it should get some solid support from teens and the snowboarder crowd. I see it doing fair business with an opening of 8 million.

Solaris- This film will not do well at all. I want to see it, but the trailers are too weird and confusing for most. I know Clooney is a star, but it won't help the film. I see it opening with 9 million.

Adam Sandler's Eight Crazy Nights- This film, while looking gross and offensive, will do good business. Why? Adam Sandler will bring in the whole youth generation and South Park fans will come out also. I predict a 13 million opening.

They- I have not seen the trailer(I did see The Ring, but this was not attached), nor have I seen any TV spots. I think the title will turn people off. I predict 3 million tops.

Harry Potter 2 dropped this weekend, but it should level out now and maybe seen an increase.

[sleekproductions]

I'd first like to mention that I think a ton of people will see the sneak preview of Maid in Manhattan. Including me, if it's on a good night. That being said...

Treasure Planet - 20 Million. They have been advertising and hyping this film like crazy, but with HP2 and SC2 still around, I only see this doing moderate business.

Solaris - Having George Clooney, James Cameron, and Steve Soderberg attached is great... this should do good business. I predict 25-30 million.

Eight Crazy Nights - People LOVE Adam Sandler, and It's great that this is a movie about Hanukkah. I predict a pretty good opening of 15 million.

Extreme Ops - Someone already beat me 2 it, but this should be called Extreme Flop. 3 Million

They - I think this will be a sleeper hit. I will personally see it as soon as I can. I predict 10 million, which is good for this type of movie. Hopefully it can follow in the footsteps of Final Destination, another underrated movie of this sort.

[Tom Samborski]

Solaris- $20 million

It looks interesting, and has a good premise, but many movie goers will still be seeing Die Another Day, which will get in the way of its box-office run.


Treasure Planet- $29 million

Good word of mouth and its appeal will make a lot of kids going to see this movie, and young moviegoers are an important part of the box-office market.


Extreme OPS- $4 million

The trailer doesn't look good, and so doesn't this film's box-office future. With so much more appealing films for moviegoers, only a certain group of people interested will go to see it.


Adam Sandler's Eight Crazy Nights- $18.5 million

Sandler got back on top of the box-office with Mr.Deeds, and Sandler fans will for sure see this one. The opening won't be spectacular though, as most folks are used to seeing Sandler as live action.


They- $6 million

This film hasn't really been promoted well, so only moviegoers who know well about might see it. It is also playing in less theatres than all of the other new releases, which is a disadvantage.

[Mike]

Originally posted by sleekproductions
I'd first like to mention that I think a ton of people will see the sneak preview of Maid in Manhattan. Including me, if it's on a good night.

I'm going to see THEY on Friday night and that's when the Maid In Manhattan sneak is, so if my theater gets it I might check out both...


And SOLARIS will probably fall fairly fast. For one, it looks weird so I don't see it being too big with mainstream audiences, the only reason it will do ok is because of the names attached, mainly George Clooney. Plus, supposedly the ending leaves you with no answers so you still don't know what the hell went on and that will not help it at all. I think a lot of mainstream audiences won't really like it, but it will have a certain following, mainly big movie fans or mindfuck fans... I see a finish of 40-50 Million...

[blankpage]

Solaris- 13 or 14 Million
Treasure Planet- 19 Million
8 Crazy Nights-15 Million (possibly less)
They-5 Million
Extreme Ops- 9 Million

Seems a little something for everyone, so it should be a mixed weekend.

[Strider]

They - $5 million

What can I say? Halloween's over and done with! This movie has been horribly promoted, therefore, I don't think many will be seeing this. If it makes more than $5 million, I'll be in shock.


Extreme Ops - $4 million

There's really nothing much to say about this flick, it'll make a little cash on the weekend, and after that... it'll be forgotten.


Eight Crazy Nights - $13 million

I know there's lots of Adam Sandler fans out there, but I don't see this movie doing great business. The movie will be lucky if even makes that much on opening weekend.


Treasure Planet - $14 million

Can someone please say Titan A.E. or Atlantis? Just because of this alone, I don't believe Treasure Planet will be a big box-office smash for Disney.


Solaris - $10 million

Despite having George Clooney attached to it, this movie will fail miserably. The film's material just doesn't sound like something that will attract a lot of movie-goers. The only people seeing this film will be the real movie buffs.

Strider

[idealdiscountdude]

Hmm.....The US Thanksgiving weekend is always the second hardest weekend to predict, after the weekend following Christmas.

Anywho....

Treasure Planet is a total question mark in my mind. It could do mediocre or very well....I doubt it will bomb though.
The trailers are very weird and the film has a PG rating not to mention it appeals more to 8-12 boys than other kids. These things will probably hinder the film from doing big business, but nonetheless, Treasure Planet could gross anywhere between $20 and $28 million.

Solaris is also another question mark. The film has a quality star in George Clooney, a friendly PG13 rating, and alot of publicity thanks to George's ass (which prolly will attract alot of horny women...and prolly some men). On the otherhand the trailers are quite different (I find them riveting, others find them boring and weird). I hope Solaris does well....its got a great deal of talent behind it. THis is the film that will attract the core of film lovers over the weekend. I predict anywhere between $18 and $24 million for the weekend.

They should do okay business. Its got the friendly PG13 rating, and is coming off the heels of the very successful The Ring. On the otherhand the film has no marquee stars (but The Ring didnt either and it still became a blockbuster), somewhat weird trailers, and a horrible title. That said, They should scare up okay business.....I predict between $5 and $9 million for the weekend.

Extreme Ops should open small and drop heavily. The film looks bad and has practically zero buzz. Add in the fact that it has no marquee stars , and Extreme OPs should be DOA. I predict between $3 and $ 5 million for the weekend.

8 Crazy Nights is a question mark. I doubt it will be big, but die hard Sandler fans should show up to see it. On the otherhand fans could be on Sandler overkill as this is his 3rd film to be released this year. Anywho I predict between $9 and $13 million for the weekend.

[dh1989]

Does anyone remember what Out Cold opened with. It should give us a pretty good idea of what Extreme OPS's opening will be since they both cater to fans of extreme snow sports and they both opened in November.

[Mike]

Originally posted by dh1989
Does anyone remember what Out Cold opened with. It should give us a pretty good idea of what Extreme OPS's opening will be since they both cater to fans of extreme snow sports and they both opened in November.

Out Cold also opened Thanksgiving week like Extreme Ops... Anyway, here you go:

OUT COLD

Wednesday - 1.244 Million
Thursday - 1.05 Million (-15.59%)
Friday - 1.828 Million (+74.10%)
Saturday - 1.823 Million (-0.27%)
Sunday - 0.881 (51.67%)


OUT COLD ended its B.O. run with $16,515,735...

Out Cold looked better than Extreme Ops in my opinion, plus Out Cold had cutie A.J. Cook (The Virgin Suicides, Final Destination 2)...

[TheMovieMinor]

Die Another Day will probably drop about 20% next weekend. Harry will drop maybe 18%, but D.A.D. will have #1 if it gets 1 this week too.
Others.

TREASURE PLANET - $19.4 million - Kids dont watch these cartoons anymore it seems like. They want the Pixar movies.

SOLARIS - $18.3 million - Will be close with Treasure planet, maybe making more.

EIGHT CRAZY NIGHTS - $8.6 million Cartoon, Sandler, I always watch his movies, I'll pass with this one.

THEY - $7.3 million - Scary, Ring, well, i smell a sleeper Mid. Below hit, but some bucks.

EXTREME OPS - $4.2 million - Out Cold about.

[dh1989]

Thank You, Mike :)

[Mike]

Originally posted by dh1989
Thank You, Mike :)

No prob ;)...

[thompsoncory]

1) TREASURE PLANET - $32 million
2) SOLARIS - $30 million
3) DIE ANOTHER DAY - $28.5 million
4) HARRY POTTER & THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS - $24.2 million
5) EIGHT CRAZY NIGHTS - $15.6 million
6) FRIDAY AFTER NEXT - $9.5 million
7) THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 - $8.9 million
8) THEY - $7 million
9) 8 MILE - $6 million
10) THE RING - $5.5 million
11) MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING - $3.2 million
12) EXTREME OPS - $2.9 million

[movies35]

DAD is gonna drop fast

1. Solaris 32.4
2. Harry Potter 30.0
3. Treasure Planet 28.7
4. Die Another Day 23.9
5. Friday After Next 19.2
6. 8 Crazy Nights 16.2
7. Santa Clause 2 9.9
8. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 6.3
9. 8 Mile 5.0
10. Extreame Ops 3.2
11. They 2.3

Next week Analize That will be number 3 or 4 will Harry Potter in the top spot OR Treasure PLanet

[bluegopher]

Originally posted by movies35
DAD is gonna drop fast

1. Solaris 32.4
2. Harry Potter 30.0
3. Treasure Planet 28.7
4. Die Another Day 23.9
5. Friday After Next 19.2
6. 8 Crazy Nights 16.2
7. Santa Clause 2 9.9
8. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 6.3
9. 8 Mile 5.0
10. Extreame Ops 3.2
11. They 2.3

Next week Analize That will be number 3 or 4 will Harry Potter in the top spot OR Treasure PLanet

I think that Analyze That will easily be number one because the wait has been long between the original and the sequel and the first had a large fanbase.

[max]

Next week Analize That will be number 3 or 4 will Harry Potter in the top spot OR Treasure PLanet

Unless the reviews are really bad, ANALYZE THAT should easily open at #1. It's opening very wide (3000+) and it's facing very little competition from the other openers (EQUILIBRIUM, EMPIRE). I doubt it's going to suffer from post-holiday blues, either. Thanksgiving is family viewing and ANALYZE THAT is adult entertainment. There also hasn't been an adult comedy in a long while. Another factor to consider is whether fans of THE SOPRANOS, with only two episodes left, would suffer withdrawal fits and flock to ANALYZE THAT or be Sopranoed out and stay away. I predict the former. A $30 million opening, at least.

[Kastman]

Just starting out this box office predictions thig, hope i get close.

1 - Harry Potter and the chamber of secret ($30.1)
2 - Treasure Planet ($23.5)
3 - Die another Day ($19.7)
4 - Solaris ($16.6)
5 - 8 crazy nights ($11.2)
6 - Friday after next ($8.8)
7 - They ($7.5)
8 - The Santa Clause 2 ($6.1)
9 - The Ring ($5.4)
10-8 mile ($4.8)

[dannywalker17]

i've never really done predictions before, but i'll give it a try.

1. Treasure Planet (38.9 mil)
2. Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (35.6 mil)
3. Solaris (25.2 mil)
4. Die Another Day (22 mil)
5. 8 Crazy Nights (16.3 mil)
6. Friday After Next (9.1 mil)
7. The Santa Clause 2 (8.5 mil)
8. They (7 mil)
9. The Ring (5.5 mil)
10. 8 Mile (4.8 mil)
11. My Big Fat Greek Wedding (4.5 mil)
12. Extreme Ops (2 mil)

[Santa Clause]

I went to the theatre on saturday to see Die Another Day and it was sold out along with Harry Potter and The Santa Clause 2. I didn't go to anything. Then on sunday I went and Die Another Day was sold out, the person in front of me got the last Harry Potter ticket and The Santa Clause 2(in 2 aud's) was sold out. So I went yesterday and all the same were sold out and I decided what the hell and I went to the counter but the lady said 1 second and 8 Mile, The Ring and Half Past Dead had just sold out. So the only movies left were MBFGW and Friday After Next so I said 1 for Friday After Next and she said "i'm sorry its sold out" I said "but there is no sold out sign" and she said "there's no more to put up" so I left very very mad and I think i'll just wait for tomorrow to see Eight Crazy Nights. i'm sorry it had nothing to to with the topic but I just had to share my story with you guys.


now here are my predictions.


1.Eight Crazy Nights- 20-25 million
2.Treasure Planet- 15-20 million
3.Extreme Ops- 10-15 million
4.Solaris- 3-8 million

[Mike]

MY PREDICTIONS

1. HARRY POTTER - 38 MILLION
2. DIE ANOTHER DAY - 36 MILLION
3. TREASURE PLANET - 25.3 MILLION
4. SOLARIS - 13.4 MILLION
5. EIGHT CRAZY NIGHTS - 13 MILLION
6. THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 - 10 MILLION
7. THEY - 7 MILLION
8. FRIDAY AFTER NEXT - 6.7 MILLION
9. THE RING - 5.4 MILLION
10. EXTREME OPS - 4.5 MILLION
11. 8 MILE - 4.4 MILLION
12. MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING - 3.5 MILLION
13. THE EMPEROR'S CLUB - 3.1 MILLION


THEATER COUNTS

HARRY POTTER - 3,682 (SAME)
DIE ANOTHER DAY - 3,314 (SAME)
TREASURE PLANET - 3,179 on 11/27 and 3,227 on 11/29 (NEW)
THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 - 2,526 (-725)
EIGHT CRAZY NIGHTS - 2,503 (NEW)
8 MILE - 2,498 (-87)
SOLARIS - 2,406 (NEW)
THE RING - 1,912 (-716)
EXTREME OPS - 1,800 (NEW)
FRIDAY AFTER NEXT - 1,621 (+5)
THEY - 1,475 on 11/27 and 1,615 on 11/29 (NEW)
MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING - 1,250 (-335)
HALF PAST DEAD - 990 (-1,123)
THE EMPEROR'S CLUB - 811 (+2)
FRIDA - 755 (-39)
JACKASS - 725 (-797)
SWEET HOME ALABAMA - 378 (-574)
MAID IN MANHATTAN (SNEAK PREVIEW) - 424
THE TUXEDO - 333 (+136)
FAR FROM HEAVEN - 284 (+25)
WHITE OLEANDER - 162 (+64)
GHOST SHIP - 116 (-454)
FEMME FATALE - 113 (-292)
TUCK EVERLASTING - 96 (-142)
ROGER DODGER - 60 (+6)
STANDING IN THE SHADOWS OF MOTOWN - 54 (+18)
ARARAT - 33 (+4)
ABANDON - 10 (-110)
RABBIT-PROOF FENCE - 9 (NEW)
THE QUIET AMERICAN - 6 (-7)
THE WAY HOME - 5 (SAME)
DEAD OR ALIVE - 1 (NEW)
JUST A KISS - 1 (-3)

[Mike]

Man, I just do not see SOLARIS opening that well at all anymore. I just have this gut feeling that it will do around 10-11 Million now. Interest is not very high aside from movie fans and lets face it, weird romantic sc-fi movies aren't exactly big hits, even with Clooney and his ass starring.

This is from Box Office Guru:

George Clooney and Steven Soderbergh reunite and join forces with James Cameron in a producer's role in Fox's sci-fi drama Solaris. Mature adults and genre fans are the target audience for the PG-13 entry which will face intense competition from Die Another Day. The lack of an all-star backup cast like in Ocean's Eleven will force the film to rely on Clooney as the solo draw. Though reviews have been mixed, most are citing the former ER star's acting as a bright spot. Solaris will need strong word-of-mouth for it to survive in the long run as a big bang in the beginning is not likely. Entering 2,406 theaters, Solaris might gross about $10M this weekend.

I must say I kind of agree with them. I think I should probably change my prediction from 13.4 Million to 10.4 Million at Lee's Movie Info before it's too late... I just don't know, I'm pretty damn sure it won't open with more than 13.4 Million, I just don't see that happening anymore. 10.4 Million actually seems more accurate.

DAMN! I just don't know what to do...

[Santa Clause]

Solaris will not make to much becuase I asked a person at my theatre and they said only 5 tickets were sold and it started in 5 minutes. Eight Crazy Nights was sold out in 2 aud's. Harry Potter was sold out (I got the last tickets) Treasure Planet sold about 25 tix said the lady and Extreme Ops was sold out in the smallest theatre with 70 seats.

[XCoRyX]

1. HARRY POTTER - 37 MILLION
2. DIE ANOTHER DAY - 32 MILLION
3. TREASURE PLANET - 20 MILLION
4. 8 CRAZY NIGHTS - 16 MILLION
5. SOLARIS - 12.5 MILLION
6. THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 - 10 MILLION
7. THEY - 7.2 MILLION
8. FRIDAY AFTER NEXT - 6.3 MILLION
9. THE RING - 5.8 MILLION
10. EXTREME OPS - 4.2 MILLION

[Kastman]

Well now my predictions have changed.
1- Harry Potter and the Chamber of secrets ($32.1)
2- Die Another day ($26.8)
3- The Santa Clause 2 ($17.9)
4- 8 crazy nights ($15.7)
5- Treasure Planet ($8.5)
6- Solaris ($6.2)
7- Friday after next ($4.3)
8- 8 mile ($3.2)
9- They ($3.0)
10- The Ring ($2.2)

[thompsoncory]

My Predictions for the Five-Day Weekend

1) HARRY POTTER & THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS - $49 million
2) DIE ANOTHER DAY - $47 million
3) TREASURE PLANET - $24 million
4) ADAM SANDLER'S EIGHT CRAZY NIGHTS - $21 million
5) THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 - $12 million
6) SOLARIS - $10 million
7) FRIDAY AFTER NEXT - $9.5 million
8) 8 MILE - $8 million
9) THEY - $7 million
10) THE RING - $6 million

[Kastman]

OH HOW FUCKING CLOSE WAS I WITH HARRY POTTER??

THE ANSWERIS VERY.

Look, it made 32.2 and i guessed 32.1, and its my first time predicting this magoogly.

Not to brag or anything though:D