Next Weekend Box Office Predictions (Analyze That, Empire, Equilibrium)

[Mike]

EST. THEATER COUNTS

Analyze That - 2,500+

Empire - 850

Equilibrium - 300

Adaptation - 7 (LA/NYC/Tor)

ANALYZE THAT - Analyze This opened with 18.4 Million and went on to gross 106.8 Million at the Box Office. Since Analyze That is a sequel and has a built in audience I think it should definitely open with more. For now I'm going to predict an opening weekend of 27.3 Million.

EMPIRE - This one should do OK considering the amount of theaters it will be on, but I don't see it doing more than 3.5 Million.

EQUILIBRIUM - Dimension is fucking over another movie, which seems to be their specialty lately. I haven't seen a single TV spot or trailer for this movie and the only way I see it doing good at the Box Office is if it gets great reviews and word of mouth. I'm going to predict an opening weekend of around 1 Million.

[dh1989]

Analyze That(which I am seeing tommorow)- This film should do well. It is the only new film with a substantial theatre count, and it has a lot of star wattage with DeNiro, Crystal, and Kudrow(who stars on the popular comedic sitcom, Friends). Plus the trailers look very funny, and there is the plus that the first film(which was popular) will bring in a large group of people looking for more of the mafia man and his analyst. And fans of The Sopranos might show up due to the fact that the film has a Soprano-like show in it(spoof style). For the opening, I predict 26 million.

Empire- This film will be a big bomb. It features no considerable star power, which is a big weakness going up against a film with three big Hollywood players. The film will not generate mass appeal, and I think it will play best to an urban audience. The theatre count is only moderate. For the opening, I predict 2 million.

Equilibrium- This film looks great, too bad Dimension films is planning a D.O.A. opening with a limited release, and a lack of marketing(there is a trailer, but it has not been attached to many films). The film also does not offer any big name stars with Christian Bale's, the leading man, biggest flicks being the indie serial killer satire American Psycho and the summer dragon film, whiched bombed, Reign of Fire. Sean Bean and Emily Watson, while movie geek favorites, will not build much interest with the mainstream moviegoer. For the opening, I predict 600,000 thousand. :(

As for other films, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets will continue its course of good weekend amounts(27% drop is my prediction), but Die Another Day will be hit hard by the arrival of Analyze That(55% drop is my prediction). Solaris, which opened pretty lacklusterly this weekend, should drop about 60%. Treasure Planet, which did okay, but nothing entirely special should drop 40%. Wes Craven Presents: They should follow the course of most horror films and drop about 55%. Extreme OPS will DIE this weekend. I see it dropping 65-75%, which would please idealdiscountdude, I think. Adam Sandler's Eight Crazy Nights will drop largely because most Sandler fans rushed out to see it opening weekend. I see a drop of 53% this weekend. The Santa Clause 2 will drop largely this weekend. I think that the Thanksgiving weekend will be the final piece of glory for this film before it takes the plunge. I predict a drop of about 57% this weekend. If Disney is smart, they'll re-release the film on, maybe, 12/20/02, some parents might take their kids again because it is the holiday season. And cinemas will be flooded with The Two Towers, which most parents will deem too scary and violent for the five year olds. And The Wild Thornberry Movie, while attracting kids, is certainly not a Christmas-themed film. These are my predictions, what are yours?

[Mike]

I think Harry Potter should see a drop of around 40%, mainly due to the big boost it received this weekend (Thanksgiving weekend). Die Another Day should see a drop of around 45%, again due to the big boost it got this weekend. I see a drop of around 30% for Treasure Planet. Like most animated films, it should hold well, especially since it didn't open very big. I see a drop of around 35% for The Santa Clause 2, which also got quite a big boost this weekend. 8 Crazy Nights will probably drop around 40-45%. Solaris should see a big drop of around 55%. I see "They" dropping around 30-35%, Dimension will probably be adding a few more theaters to it next weekend due to its nice opening. And last and certainly least is Extreme Ops which should see a hefty drop of around 60%.

[Scarface98.9]

Analyze That will probably end up w/ around 26 or so million for it's opening weekend, and Equilibrium, despite being a potentially cool film, will probably only make about 100 grand and end w/ about 300 grand by the time it finishes

[Santa Clause]

Analize That will make about 25 million taking 2nd place. HPATCOS will take first with about 35-40 million. Die Another Day with come in 3rd with about 20-23 million.

[Horror whore]

ANALYZE THAT- 23 Million
EMPIRE- 4 Million
EQUILIBRIUM- .4 Million

[Jason]

Analyze That: $30 million
Empire: $5 million
Equlibrium: $2.5 million

[Mike]

Alright, here's my early predictions...

1. ANALYZE THAT - 27.3 MILLION
2. HARRY POTTER - 22 MILLION
3. DIE ANOTHER DAY - 19 MILLION
4. TREASURE PLANET - 8.3 MILLION
5. THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 - 8 MILLION
6. 8 CRAZY NIGHTS - 6.1 MILLION
7. THEY - 3.9 MILLION
8. FRIDAY AFTER NEXT - 3.9 MILLION
9. THE RING - 3.9 MILLION
10. EMPIRE - 3.5 MILLION
11. MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING - 3.3 MILLION
12. 8 MILE - 3.2 MILLION
13. THE EMPEROR'S CLUB - 3.1 MILLION
14. SOLARIS - 3.1 MILLION

[max]

Mike, where did you get the screen count for ANALYZE THAT? According to http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/, it's higher (3000+). Since it's a sequel, the latter sounds more accurate. If so, I predict at least a $30 mil. opening.

[Mike]

Originally posted by max
Mike, where did you get the screen count for ANALYZE THAT? According to http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/, it's higher (3000+). Since it's a sequel, the latter sounds more accurate. If so, I predict at least a $30 mil. opening.

I got it from the updated list at Box Office Mojo. You can find it towards the bottom of this page: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/

[max]

Thanks, Mike. It sounds a little low for a sequel though. I still think the final count would be a few hundred more. Regardless my $30 mil. prediction isn't out of reach so I'll stick to it.

[BakeTheMooCow]

Originally posted by dh1989
For the opening, I predict 600,000 thousand

THAT'S 600 MILLION DUDE
nah, i'm just kidding around.

I suck at predictions, but I think Analyze That will open with more than people are saying. I predict 40 million.

[sleekproductions]

Analyze That - 30 million
Empire - 5 million
Equilibrium - 5 million. (I know, I know... but this weekend there were amazing advertisements in the New York Times! People Should Get Interested! A Full Page Add!)

[Mike]

...

[Tuukka]

If I'm not entirely mistaken, Analyze This made close to 100 million in VHS and DVD rentals in USA, being the biggest rental hit of the year. The sequel might make a lot more money than people think.

[Tom Samborski]

Analyze That- $33.4 million
Empire- $3.6 million
Equilibrium- $2.8 million

[movies35]

1. Analize That 32.4
2. Harry Potter 30.9
3. Treasure PLanet 27.4
4. Die Another Day 23.2
5. 8 Crazy Nights 17.4
6. Santa Clause 2 15.3
7. Far From Heaven 11.2 (Is it expanding???)
8. Solaris 9.4 (Should do resonable buisness)
9. 8 mile 4.9 (Awsome movie! Why did it tank?)
10. The Ring 2.2

Did anyone know what number and place Extreame Ops was last week??

[Tuukka]

"9. 8 mile 4.9 (Awsome movie! Why did it tank?)"

Tank? It's going to end up between 120-130 million... I has made 108 million so far.

[dh1989]

Originally posted by movies35
8. Solaris 9.4 (Should do resonable buisness)


I highly doubt Solaris will see an increase. It is not a maintstream film, it tanked during Thanksgiving(when a lot of people are off from work), and it got straight F's in its CinemaScore grading. Not to say I want the film to fail. It was brilliant, and the second best of the year, but I am afraid it will bomb. Although it is your opinion, to each is own I say. :)

[XCoRyX]

1. ANALYZE THAT - 24 MILLION
2. HARRY POTTER - 21 MILLION
3. DIE ANOTHER DAY - 17.5 MILLION
4. TREASURE PLANET - 8 MILLION
5. THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 - 7.5 MILLION
6. 8 CRAZY NIGHTS - 6 MILLION
7. THEY - 4.2 MILLION
8. FRIDAY AFTER NEXT - 4 MILLION
9. EMPIRE- 3.7 MILLION
10. MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING - 3 MILLION

[idealdiscountdude]

Ideal's Predictions:

1.Analyze That $ 25.1 million
2.Harry Potter $ 20.8 million
3.Die Another Day $16.8 million
4.Treasure Planet $ 8.5 million
5.The Santa Clause 2 $ 6.0 million
6.8 Crazy Nights $ 4.6 million
7.Friday After Next $ 4.1 million
8.Solaris $3.9 million
9.They $ 3.8 million
10.The Ring $ 3.7 million

[movies35]

8 mile went down quickly that is why I think it tanked. It will make 130 million but it is going down wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy to fast. The only times it is playing at my theater is 8:30 and 11:00

[Mike]

Here's my FINAL PREDICTIONS:

1. ANALYZE THAT - 22 MILLION
2. HARRY POTTER - 16 MILLION
3. DIE ANOTHER DAY - 15.5 MILLION
4. THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 - 6.1 MILLION
5. TREASURE PLANET - 6.1 MILLION
6. 8 CRAZY NIGHTS - 4.2 MILLION
7. THE RING - 3.1 MILLION
8. THEY - 3.1 MILLION
9. EMPIRE - 3 MILLION
10. FRIDAY AFTER NEXT - 3 MILLION
11. MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING - 2.9 MILLION
12. 8 MILE - 2.8 MILLION
13. SOLARIS - 2.7 MILLION
14. THE EMPEROR'S CLUB - 2.6 MILLION


THEATER COUNTS:

HARRY POTTER - 3,387 (-295)
DIE ANOTHER DAY - 3,347 (+23)
TREASURE PLANET - 3,227 (SAME)
ANALYZE THAT - 2,635 (NEW)
8 CRAZY NIGHTS - 2,503 (SAME)
SOLARIS - 2,406 (SAME)
THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 - 2,356 (-170)
8 MILE - 2,010 (-488)
EXTREME OPS - 1,800 (SAME)
THE RING - 1,642 (-270)
THEY - 1,623 (+8)
FRIDAY AFTER NEXT - 1,450 (-171)
MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING - 1,257 (SAME)
THE HOT CHICK (Sneak Preview) - 1,000
MAID IN MANHATTAN (Sneak Preview) - 875
EMPIRE - 864 (NEW)
THE EMPEROR'S CLUB - 805 (-6)
FRIDA - 621 (-134)
JACKASS - 457 (-268)
EQUILIBRIUM - 301 (NEW)
JONAH - 294 (-32)
FAR FROM HEAVEN - 286 (+2)
BOWLING FOR COLUMBINE - 246 (+29)
THE TUXEDO - 230 (-103)
SPY KIDS 2 - 228 (-37)
FEMME FATALE - 124 (+11)
ABANDON - 119 (+109)
WHITE OLEANDER - 96 (-66)
GHOST SHIP - 77 (-39)
ROGER DODGER - 61 (+1)
STANDING IN THE SHADOWS OF MOTOWN - 55 (+1)
STAR WARS: AOTC (IMAX) - 54 (SAME)
COMEDIAN - 44 (-10)
ARARAT - 42 (+9)
SECRETARY - 35 (-3)
8 WOMEN - 34 (-7)
MOSTLY MARTHA - 24 (-7)
THE GREY ZONE - 22 (+3)
BLOODY SUNDAY - 21 (SAME)
PERSONAL VELOCITY - 20 (+15)
IGBY GOES DOWN - 19 (+3)
HEAVEN - 19 (+5)
WELCOME TO COLLINWOOD - 17 (+8)
THE WAY HOME - 13 (+8)
RABBIT-PROOF FENCE - 9 (SAME)
ADAPTATION - 7 (NEW)

[TheMovieMinor]

1. ANALYZE THAT - 21.4 MILLION
2. HARRY POTTER - 19.7 MILLION
3. DIE ANOTHER DAY - 19.1 MILLION
4. TREASURE PLANET - 8.8 MILLION
5. THE SANTA CLAUSE 2 - 7.9 MILLION
6. 8 CRAZY NIGHTS - 5.1 MILLION
7. EMPIRE - 4.3 MILLION
8. SOLARIS - 3.1 MILLION
9. FRIDAY AFTER NEXT - 3.5 MILLION
10. THE RING - 3.3 MILLION

21. EQUILIBRIUM - 1.1

[Narst]

I think Analyze That will either have about a $24 million opening or a $40 million opening. Most likely closer to $24 but I have a sneaky suspicion it could be higher.

[Mike]

My prediction for EQUILIBRIUM is 0.69, that's what I predicted at Box Office Mojo...

[dh1989]

Here is what the expert at Box Office Guru had to say about this weekend's box office.....

THIS WEEKEND Harry Potter and James Bond look to continue their fight for box office supremecy, but will be challenged by the dynamic duo of Robert De Niro and Billy Crystal as the comedy Analyze That opens this weekend.

Way back last millennium, March of 1999 to be exact, a small comedy about a mobster and a shrink opened. It was called Analyze This, and it opened to $18.3M. By the end of its run, the movie had crossed the century mark and finished with a surprising $106.8M. And as is common in today's film world, the idea for a sequel was immediately hatched. Fast forward three-and-a-half years and Analyze That is now opening nationwide.

The original was a surprise hit; a movie most figured wouldn't do as well as it did. The question is, did moviegoers like it enough that they'll rush out for a sequel? Going against type, Robert De Niro comedies have performed better than Robert De Niro dramas over the last few years. Analyze This and Meet the Parents both crossed the $100M, while movies such as Men of Honor, 15 Minutes and The Score have had final grosses of $48.8, $24.4 and $71M. Billy Crystal hasn't been on the big screen too much since Analyze This came out. He had a supporting role in the Julia Roberts-led America's Sweethearts, and his voice was a major contributor to the success of Monsters, Inc., but before 1999's Analyze This, Crystal hadn't had a hit since 1991's City Slickers.

So what does all this mean? Probably not much. Here are the important facts: Analyze That is the only major new release this weekend. It is a broad-based comedy making it unique to the box office. It has two name stars in a film that is a sequel to a hit from a few years ago. Analyze That could see a weekend take of $21M which would allow it the honor of opening at number one.

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets and Die Another Day should be in a good battle for second place this weekend. Chamber of Secrets managed to eek out a small victory over the three-day weekend last week, but Die Another Day took the victory lap over the five-day period. Mid-week, Die Another Day has been outpacing Chamber of Secrets by a slight margin. The weekend after Thanksgiving has traditionally been a slow one with older films dropping 50-60%. Following that pattern and allowing for favorable reviews, both Chamber of Secrets and Die Another Day should fall around 50% leading to figures in the $16M range each. The Santa Clause 2 has been holding up very well, even going up by almost 19% last weekend while it lost 700+ screens. With a post-Thanksgiving drop this weekend, Clause 2 should hit with around $6M.

Also opening this week is the John Leguizamo flick, Empire. Advertising for the film has only really come into play the last couple of weeks, and the star power on the film with the likes of Leguizamo, Denise Richards and rappers Treach and Fat Joe, is small. The story line about a gangster determined to go the straight and narrow but ending up getting screwed isn't one for a mass audience but should find a small niche. Empire might see a gross of $3M this weekend.

The disasterous openings of Treasure Planet and Adam Sandler's 8 Crazy Nights will be compounded this weekend as both movies should drop 60-70% leaving them with grosses in the $3-4M range. Both movies had high hopes last weekend but neither delivered. Following in that train of thought, the George Clooney butt-vehicle Solaris had an even worse opening, and should fall off quickly this weekend and end up with around $2M. The one thing to look to this weekend is whether or not the old war horse My Big Fat Greek Wedding can re-enter the top ten in its 34th week of release. If betting on this were legal, I'd put my money on yes.