And the Summer Flops will be...

[Freeway]

Let's face it: Some of the big budget films coming out this summer will flop. My list is below of which films I think could flop:

1.The League
2.Pirates of the Carribbean (Remember Cutthroat Island?)
3.2 Fast 2 Furious
4.Freddy Vs. Jason
5.Jeepers Creepers 2

Somewhere I read that alot of people expect Terminator 3 to flop. What does everyone else think because I have a hard time believing that it will.

[dh1989]

Check out this very recent thread for people's thoughts on this. (http://www.joblo.com/forums/showthread.php?threadid=51600)

[Invincible]

Originally posted by Freeway

Somewhere I read that alot of people expect Terminator 3 to flop. What does everyone else think because I have a hard time believing that it will.


It won't...trust me

[DevilMonkey]

Originally posted by Freeway
Let's face it: Some of the big budget films coming out this summer will flop. My list is below of which films I think could flop:

1.The League
2.Pirates of the Carribbean (Remember Cutthroat Island?)
3.2 Fast 2 Furious
4.Freddy Vs. Jason
5.Jeepers Creepers 2

Somewhere I read that alot of people expect Terminator 3 to flop. What does everyone else think because I have a hard time believing that it will.

Yes there is a thread much like this but I think that only Leauge on your list will be a flop I think the rest will all do very good as much as I don't want to see 2FAST 2 FURIOUS.

[spacemonkey]

Originally posted by Freeway
Let's face it: Some of the big budget films coming out this summer will flop. My list is below of which films I think could flop:

3.2 Fast 2 Furious
4.Freddy Vs. Jason
5.Jeepers Creepers 2


I can assure you these flicks here wont flop.
Specially not Freddy vs. Jason. A whole lot of people have been waiting for this to come out for years now. And the anticipation is too big. And just the idea is cool to watch these two horror icons duking it out.

Jeepers Creepers was a succesful horror flick, and this second outing looks like itll will top the first one in many ways. The good previews will make many people want to see it too. The Creeper looks really evil in this one and the actions gonna be over the top.

Every dude with a muscle car or a bike is gonna go and watch this. Though I hate this type of flick myself, I doubt itll flop. The target audience for these types of films is too big for it to flop.

[JCPhoenix]

Originally posted by Freeway
Somewhere I read that alot of people expect Terminator 3 to flop. What does everyone else think because I have a hard time believing that it will.

I don't think it will flop, but I think the actual movie won't be great. Most of the trailers and tv spots i'm sorry, looked like shit. But the latest trailer was pretty good, so maybe it will be good?...

[FRED SANFORD]

Here is my humble opinion;

"Freddy vs. Jason": NO WAY THIS MOVIE WILL FLOP! This film has received one of the most positive audience responces in recent years. (Minus a very out of place sex scene) This film will be the surprise hit of the summer over...

"Jeepers Creepers 2": The problem with this film is that people love Act One and Act Two, but when they get to Act Three it falls apart and everyone hated the ending. This movie will do well ON VIDEO AND DVD. But word of mouth and people that saw the first installment will not pay $9.00 for this again. Fool me once shame on you...fool me twice...shame on me. The only film that will do "okay" is...

"2 Fast 2 Furious" I really wanted this movie to fail. I just never liked it, the concept and I never felt it was strong enough to be a feature length film. the acting was really pretty bad by most of the actors and you only remember the car stunts, which doesn't make a movie. But, this sequel will make a little money, even without Vin Diesel, but it won't be in theaters for long.

"Terminator 3" I really wanted this movie to be good, but the more I see of it and the more I read about it, it upsets me to say it will NEVER live up to the first or second, it will only be a sequel, no better, much worst. (Think about it...no Linda Hamilton, the actor playing John Conner looks like a grown up Bart Simpson and Arnold is an old man beating up on a young woman. I can see that on COPS) It will have great stunts but it won't be as good as...


MATRIX: RELOADED: Why? Hard to say. But If I had to say one reason it would be the Director's. They not only happen to be talented, they are in love with motion pictures. That shows...

[sharkstank]

I'm not good at pedictions,but because of the timing,release date,and buzz,i say Sinbad will be a huge bomb

[Adam J. Hakari]

SINBAD looks to be a disappointment, but I think SEABISCUIT, as interesting as it looks, might flop...not big-time, but plenty enough, though.

[Invincible]

Originally posted by FRED SANFORD


"Terminator 3" It will have great stunts but it won't be as good as...


MATRIX: RELOADED

Don't count on it...

[BillBelichickFn]

I'm a big fan of Jonathan Mostow(U-571 was a tense, taut psychological thriller), so here's hoping that T3 could very well turn out to be a gem!

However, if Arnold proves that he can't even draw with movies that have "built-in" audience fan bases, then maybe we'll see him as governor of CA in '06? :cool:

[eraserhead_99]

Originally posted by Freeway
Let's face it: Some of the big budget films coming out this summer will flop. My list is below of which films I think could flop:

1.The League
2.Pirates of the Carribbean (Remember Cutthroat Island?)
3.2 Fast 2 Furious
4.Freddy Vs. Jason
5.Jeepers Creepers 2

Somewhere I read that alot of people expect Terminator 3 to flop. What does everyone else think because I have a hard time believing that it will.

3 of those already have a built in audience those they will at least be a little less then a flop. and POTC have a good big cast.

[movielover999]

Well, the chances of Freddy vs Jason flopping are almost impossible...

It will have the combined power of both charcters built in fanbases... Freddy's fanbase is twice to three times that of Jasons... Not to mention there will be actors in this movie people know... So you will also have Kelly Rowlands Fanbase (The girl hit #1 on the charts with a single), Katherine Isabelles Fanbase (She is known in Canada by a good amount of people), Jason Ritters Fanbase (People love John Ritter, they might want to see his son act), Monica Keenas Fanbase (Dawsons Creek groupies), Lochlyn M.'s fanbase (That annoying guy from Dead man on Campus and Scary movie that people love)...


Both characters are back in their territorys that people grew up with back in the 80's... Both characters are also back to their true forms that made them famous to begin with.... No silly robot/dream baby storyline... So, you will have nostalgia from the people who grew up in the 80's who might want to remember their child/teenhood... Also, others who watched the series in the 80's...

Not to mention advance word for this has been very good... People are saying it's the best and most exciting out of either series... They are also saying it has a lot to offer to both fans and the mainstream...

The test screening consisted of both fans and the mainstream and it still did well.


What sold me was there are going back to form... Freddy is back in Springwood and Jason is back at Crystal Lake... Neither one has been in their required territories in many years... Thats what I remember from the 80's, thats what I want to see...


This movie also has a nice budget and a director who knows how to pull the most out of a budget... This movie will most likely be an eye candy ride and look very neat... This movie will definately look the most professional out of any other the others... The summer camp shots that I originally say last fall are beautiful... Definately way outranking any of the shots I have ever seen in both series... This movie is said to look like a 40-50 million dollar movie...


I actually think this movie will end up doing decent to very well.....

[movielover999]

Jeepers Creepers 2 I think could be a flop... I only say this because it did horrible with most people... The cinescore is a D... Most people dont like the first movie... Jeepers Creepers is not really on iconic level...

It could also do well... This movie is a toss in the air for me... I dont know...


2Fast2Furious will not make what the first one made... It could flop, it might... It probably wont...

The League... Never heard of it...


I think Terminator 3 will fair well... It will probably do ok... It might not make it's entire budget back, but I dont think it will be an all out bomb...


Pirates of the Carribean... A bomb is very unlikely... This movie is building hype and is on many peoples top 5 and 10 lists of the summer...


The Hulk... Another movie that will not all out bomb, but it might not make back it's budget... People expect this to outperform Spiderman... That is not going to happen... The trailers are average and got laughs at the cinema... The Hulk also looks CGI...

[Invincible]

Originally posted by movielover999

I think Terminator 3 will fair well... It will probably do ok... It might not make it's entire budget back, but I dont think it will be an all out bomb...

Don't be ridiculous man, you have no idea how big Terminator's fanbase is..in the US, and Overseas..:rolleyes:

[movielover999]

Yes, the fanbase is huge, the movie will definately go over $200 million...

What I meant is by the time the budget and advertising is done, the budget itself could be over $200 million... It might not make a huge profit...


Yes, it will do very well and a ton of people will see it... It just might not make a lot of money... Thats all I meant....


For example, a movie could make $400 million, but if it's budget was $425 million, it would still be considered a flop... Even though everyone in the world saw it... Thats all I meant..


No reason for the fanboy attitude.... ;)


I didnt mean it was only going to make $50 dollars... I will see the movie as will many... Dont get so upset...


I was also talking aboutit's domestic gross... I wasnt considering overseas yet... :)

[MisterTwister]

Freddy vs. Jason will not flop, alot of people been wating for years for it and theres alot of good reviews for it (the screening) and Jeepers Creepers 2 will also do good.

[Could Be Worse]

Freddy Vs. Jason? No way. This movie has been building up hype for over 4 years. I know I, as well as may people I know, are looking forward to it. Jeepers Creepers 2 you may be right on. The first was a surprise hit, the 2nd may not be so lucky.

[Tuukka]

Just a note:

In general, a movie has to make three times it's budget before it makes any money. Several movies in this thread cost only 25 million. That means they have to make only 75 million worldwide. Many movies make 3 or even 4 times more outside USA than they do in the domestic market.

Let's take an example, Terminator 3:

Budget: 150-170 million depending on the source (Let's use 150 million as an example).

Marketing budget: It will be AT LEAST 50 million. Most likely 60-70 million. But let's stay with 50 million.

So the final cost for T3 is 200 million. Studios get only 50% of the ticket sales. That means the films has to make 400 million worldwide to break even. To make any money AT ALL.

And this was a cautious estimation. The real breaking point is most likely even higher. Probably around 450-500 million.

T3 will most likely do at least 150 million in USA. Schwarzenegger has a much higher fan base outside USA nowadays, so at least 200 million overseas is likely. That's 350 million. At least 50 million is still missing, and it remains to be seen if it makes it.

Of course T3 should collect some healty money on the VHS, DVD and TV market, so I'm pretty confident that it will eventually make back it's budget.

But's it's a long way to travel. And just check how many movies actually have travelled north of 400 million in film history. Not too many.

Personally I think the film will make a lot of money, but's it's no LOTR, SW, HP, or Matrix. It's barely on the same league with X-Men and Hulk. Schwarzenegger hasn't been a big name since True Lies, and that was 9 years ago. He has done 7 headlining roles since then with no particular results. It's been 12 years since Terminator 2 and Cameron isn't handling the franchise anymore. The final trailer is good, but's it's all "been there, done that".

I don't see T3 as a 200+ grosser domestically. But it's doing fine if it goes north of 150 million, since most of the money will come outside USA anyway.

[Americana]

Nicely Said Tuukka, Nicely Said. :)

[Tuukka]

Home market is usually not being considered enough. Many films make actually more on VHS, DVD and TV than on theatrical release. Several cartoons are good examples for this. Spirit, Atlantis, etc.

I don't know how much studios get on the rental market, but I suspect it's much less than the 50% they get on theatrical release. Studios only sell the rental copies to video chains, they don't get percentage according to the amount of rentals.

Home market *sales* on the other hand bring huge money, since the studios sell the actual amount of films that are being bought by the audience. I recall that Monsters Inc for example made around 350 millon on USA VHS and DVD sales. LOTR:FOTR was also massive, north of 300 million.

Kiddie films and films with an exceptionally devoted and fanatical fanbase are the ones that take the biggest money on home sales. More standard blockbusters like Men In Black 2 don't tend to fare so well, people watch them once or twice and that's it.

www.boxofficemojo.com is a great source for accurate numbers.