Next Weekend Box Office Predictions (Bad Boys 2, How To Deal, Johnny English)

[Mike]

**********EST. THEATER COUNTS**********

Bad Boys II - 3,000+

How to Deal - 2,200

Johnny English - 2,100+

Garage Days - 23

Dirty Pretty Things - 4



---MY PREDICTIONS---


BAD BOYS 2 - 37.9 MILLION


HOW TO DEAL - 14.1 MILLION

I don't think there's been a teen movie of this kind out in quite some time. At least not all summer. There's not really any romance films out either. So this will cater to both crowds. This is Mandy Moore's first movie after the 2002 hit A Walk To Remember. A lot of people loved her in that movie, and her fanbase has become even bigger. Even with a PG-13 rating, a lot of people that loved that movie should turn out for this one. And even people that didn't love that one might check this out.

The lack of teen/romance movies lately will definitely help this one out. I don't see it doing anything less than 13 Million.


JOHNNY ENGLISH - 13.5 MILLION

I think this should be able to perform like last summers surprise hit The Master Of Disguise, which grossed over 40 Million at the Box Office. It will appeal to all ages, so families can see it and it will have something for everyone. It's not just for little kids. This should open with a little more than The Master Of Disguise though, and finish with more.

[Dream Warrior]

no doubt Bad Boys II will be awesome, its a long awaited sequel, can't wait.

[movies35]

Bad Boys II- 45 million....

Sure, it long awaited, but it also just plain long. And that cuts down on how many screens it's playing on. So it's weekend total may be a little low.

How To Deal- 12 million...

Mandy Moore was awesome in A Walk to Remember. And I think she got some "movie fans" into her with that role. And the movie doesn't look half bad. And there hasn't been a romantic comedy since How to Lose A Guy In 10 Days, so it should do good.

Johney English- 9 million...

It looks horrible. And Bean was horrible. And it doesn't really look like a "family" movie. And I doubt many adults will be interested in it.

[Mike]

Originally posted by movies35
And there hasn't been a romantic comedy since How to Lose A Guy In 10 Days.


It's not really a romantic comedy. It more of a romantic drama. It might have some funny parts, just like most dramas, but I doubt enough to call it a comedy. They certainly aren't advertising it as a comedy.

[movies35]

Originally posted by Mike
It's not really a romantic comedy. It more of a romantic drama. It might have some funny parts, just like most dramas, but I doubt enough to call it a comedy. They certainly aren't advertising it as a comedy.

I think it's going to be a mix of the 3, not just one or 2. So i just called it a romantic comedy.

Anyways, I still think it should do good, and should end up with about 40 million by the end of it's run.

[AgentSmith]

Bad Boys II

I feel that the length of the film will really turn people off...

30-35 Million opening..

How to Deal

A Walk to Remember did decently... I expect this to perform the same.. 12-15 Million opening..

Johnny English

10 Million opening.... This gross because:

Mr.Bean has his fans who will show up to see him...

[Frank the Tank]

Bad Boys 2 28million the long runtime could prevent it from that 40mil opening
Johnny English 8million
How To Deal 14million

[jackson13]

Bad Boys II - 50 million


The rest I couldnt give a rats ass about. Honestly.

[Brock-Landers]

Bad Boys II .... $41 Million
How to Deal .. $11 Million
Johnny English ... $6 Million

[dh1989]

How To Deal - 26 million

Bad Boys II - 21 million

Johnny English - 8 million

T3: Rise of the Machines - 10 milliion

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl - 26 million

The Leauge of Extraordinary Gentlemen - 7 million

[Freeway]

Originally posted by dh1989
How To Deal - 26 million

Bad Boys II - 21 million

Johnny English - 8 million

T3: Rise of the Machines - 10 milliion

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl - 26 million

The Leauge of Extraordinary Gentlemen - 7 million

Dh, you really think that LXG is going to drop that much from what is likely to be a 20 mil.+ opening weekend? LXG is actually getting decent WOM based on sites such as Yahoo.

Anyway, my predictions are as follows:
Bad Boys 2 -40 mil. At 150 minutes, it really has an uphill battle to make money because that simply seems too lojg for such a film.

How to Deal - 15 mil. Should perform similar to Moore's a Walk to Remember.

Johnny English - 10 mil. I have a feeling that this will act similar to Master of Disguise last year with better WOM because I have a hard time believing that it could be worse than that movie.

T3 - 11 million. This film unfortunately continues to drop but I still have not lost all faith in it.

LXG - 11 million - We'll see how it performs midweek because that'll determine how much people liked the film after what is shaping up to be a surprisingly decent opening weekend.

[sharkstank]

bad boys II- 41 mil
how to deal- 14 mil
johnny english-9 mil

[Clarkey07]

Bad Boys 2 - $45-50 mil
How to Deal - $12-15 mil
Johnny English - $8-12 mil

[Ron34]

Originally posted by jackson13
Bad Boys II - 50 million


The rest I couldnt give a rats ass about. Honestly.

yup

[Mike]

Here's my early predictions based on the weekend estimates:

1. BAD BOYS 2 - 37.9 MILLION
2. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN - 27.8 MILLION
3. HOW TO DEAL - 14.1 MILLION
4. JOHNNY ENGLISH - 13.5 MILLION
5. T3: RISE OF THE MACHINES - 11.7 MILLION
6. THE LEAGUE - 11.6 MILLION
7. LEGALLY BLONDE 2 - 6.6 MILLION
8. FINDING NEMO - 5.8 MILLION
9. CHARLIE'S ANGELS 2 - 3.8 MILLION
10. SINBAD - 3 MILLION
11. 28 DAYS LATER - 3 MILLION
12. THE ITALIAN JOB - 1.9 MILLION
13. THE HULK - 1.8 MILLION
14. BRUCE ALMIGHTY - 1.4 MILLION
15. 2 FAST 2 FURIOUS - 0.7
16. SWIMMING POOL - 0.7

[MadsenOMC]

I'm curious as to why you think How to Deal will open to $26 million, and do better than Bad Boys II? An R rating didn't slow down Reloaded or T3. It's a sequel to a well-liked and moderately successful film. Two recognizable stars. The Michael Bay/Jerry Bruckheimer action extravaganza factor. A good trailer. I can't see this doing less than $35 million on opening weekend. As for How to Deal, what's the precedent for a $26 million opening? Has any other romantic movie starring a singer done anywhere near that kind of box office, and in a crowded summer no less? Not that I can think of. Recent examples like Moore's own A Walk to Remember and Crossroads did, what, $12-14 million opneing weekend? Against less competition. Why would it do any better than that?

[dh1989]

Originally posted by MadsenOMC
I'm curious as to why you think How to Deal will open to $26 million, and do better than Bad Boys II? An R rating didn't slow down Reloaded or T3. It's a sequel to a well-liked and moderately successful film. Two recognizable stars. The Michael Bay/Jerry Bruckheimer action extravaganza factor. A good trailer. I can't see this doing less than $35 million on opening weekend. As for How to Deal, what's the precedent for a $26 million opening? Has any other romantic movie starring a singer done anywhere near that kind of box office, and in a crowded summer no less? Not that I can think of. Recent examples like Moore's own A Walk to Remember and Crossroads did, what, $12-14 million opneing weekend? Against less competition. Why would it do any better than that?

I don't see Bad Boys II doing that well. Will Smith and Martin Lawrence have both had bombs recently, including Ali, What's The Worst That Could Happen?, and National Security. Hell, even Wild, Wild West and Men In Black II under-performed some's expectations. They may have some hits under their belts, but they're box office records are not golden. Also, I don't think the first film has that many fans. It is almost a decade old, and was not THAT big of a blockbuster. As for you saying it has a "good trailer," that is subjective. I think the trailer is rather bland. Some probably agree with you, and some probably agree with me.

As for How To Deal, I think it'll perform very well. There are no films for females in theatres right now, and I am sure many of them will turn up for this, from the 13 year old girls to the 45 year old woman. And I think it'll open with 26 million. This is all my opinion. You have yours.

[Horror whore]

Originally posted by dh1989
There are no films for females in theatres right now

*coughLEGALLYBLONDE2cough*

*coughCHARLIE'SANGELS2cough*

[asu21at]

dh....ur an idiot.....come back to this thread when it AT LEAST makes 40 million

[Freeway]

Originally posted by asu21at
dh....ur an idiot.....come back to this thread when it AT LEAST makes 40 million

You might want to consider reading the rules and guidelines for the board again because such insults are not cool.

[dh1989]

Originally posted by Horror whore
*coughLEGALLYBLONDE2cough*

*coughCHARLIE'SANGELS2cough*

Yeah, I forgot about Legally Blonde 2: Red, White, and Blonde. That could be slight competition for the film, but I don't think Charlie's Angels 2: Full Throttle will hurt it at all. It's dying down, and is more of an action film, than a romance, so it'll appeal to a different sector of females, to an extent,

[MadsenOMC]

If How to Deal were to make $26 million on 2200 screens, it would have to average $12,000 a screen. I suppose anything is possible, but it's highly unlikely. No doubt there's an audience for it, as evidenced by recent openings for What a Girl Wants and The Lizzie Maguire Movie. But will it really do better than those did? $11-$13 million or so. As for Bad Boys II, the first one wasn't a massive hit, but it did well enough. I think it has wide appeal. And maybe the trailer isn't good, but it sells itself. T3 is dying down. Bruckheimer/Bay, love them or hate them (and I hate them, especially Bay), know how to draw an audience. And they have had R-rated success before. It's getting a huge release. Expect big numbers.

[Mike]

2,200 theaters is only the estimated theater count for How To Deal. When the official theater counts are released, it should be in around 2,500-2,600.

And why is DH's prediction such a big deal anyway? It's his opinion. Sometimes you just have a feeling about a movie, and you should pretty much always go with your feeling. I personally don't think it will open quite that high, however, it is possible. Mandy Moore has a big fanbase, and mothers like her because she is more "wholesome" than Britney Spears. Plus, there's no other teen romance movies out, and hasn't been for awhile. Maybe it will end up being a breakout hit? Who knows? Anything is possible when it comes to the Box Office.

I don't think Bad Boys 2 is going to open as high as some are predicting. I don't really see it opening between 40-50 Million. But that's just my opinion, and it doesn't mean anyone else is wrong and I'm certainly not going to tell people that they are predicting too high, because it's their opinion and they could be right and I might be wrong. You never know. When predicting the Box Office, there's really no right or wrong answers, until, of course, the actual numbers are released. But before then, people can predict what they want. It's just a matter of opinion. Sometimes you end up being right about your predictions, sometimes you end up being completely wrong, but it doesn't really matter, because it's just all in good fun anyway.

[MadsenOMC]

Why are certain people being so sensitive and defensive? I did not attack anyone or their predictions. I merely disagreed with them and stated why. I never said anything was a big deal. I don't understand what the fuss is here. As you said Mike, there's no right or wrong in predicting box office. So we're all stating our opinions. That's it. What's the big deal?

[XCoRyX]

1. Bad Boys II - 34 Million
2. Pirates Of The Carribean - 28.4 Million
3. How To Deal - $16 Million
4. Johnny English - $13.2 Million
5. LXG - $11.5 Million
6. T3 - $10 Million

[MadsenOMC]

Box Office Guru's predictions:

Bad Boys II: $36 million
How to Deal: $9 million
Johnny English: $8 million

[Mike]

This is from Box Office Guru:

THIS WEEKEND Three new releases offer moviegoers a wide range of entertainment options hoping to draw audiences away from the runaway hit Pirates of the Caribbean. Leading the race is Sony's Bad Boys II which stands as the summer's eleventh action film, tenth sequel, and sixth big-budget action sequel. New Line goes after teen girls with the Mandy Moore drama How to Deal while Universal opens the British comedy Johnny English.

Hoping to get their careers back on track, Martin Lawrence and Will Smith reunite in the cop buddy sequel Bad Boys II which also brings back the behind-the-camera team of director Michael Bay and producer Jerry Bruckheimer. The R-rated pic finds the Miami detectives investigating a drug war and co-stars Gabrielle Union. In 1995, Bad Boys was a pivotal hit in the careers of all four men involved. Smith and Lawrence transformed from sitcom stars to reliable box office draws. Bay made his debut as a feature film director and Bruckheimer ended a long drought with the first of three hits that year. Bad Boys enjoyed the biggest opening of the spring season that year with a $15.5M bow and found its way to $65.6M before becoming a runaway hit on video and cable. Though Smith has gone on to anchor more blockbusters, Lawrence gets top billing as he did with the first film.

Both leads went on to grow as commercial actors, but have not excited audiences in recent years. Smith starred in such underperformers as The Legend of Bagger Vance and Ali while Lawrence has been striking out with Black Knight, What's the Worst That Could Happen?, and National Security. Bad Boys II is the blockbuster hit that both men need in order to justify their enormous paychecks. The ultraviolent Sony release should play more to males but females should still make up a respectable number. The studio's marketing has been intense, but the film does not radiate the same chemistry and humor of the original. Poor reviews could take a bit away from the excitement factor and with so many action films hitting theaters in recent weeks, some ticket buyers are already becoming all actioned out. How many car chase sequences, gun battles, and explosions can a moviegoer take in one season? A lengthy run near two and a half hours will mean less showtimes per auditorium, but multiple prints in the bigger multiplexes will ensure enough seats.

Bruckheimer will be battling himself at the box office as Bad Boys II tries to unseat the producer's own Pirates of the Caribbean for the number one spot. The high seas adventure collected over $70M over five days last weekend, but tapped into a broader audience due to its strong female appeal and PG-13 rating. With the current top ten boasting no black actors in any lead roles, Bad Boys II should be able to connect with African American and urban audiences giving the action sequel a strong push. Plus these are roles that the public actually wants to see Lawrence and Smith in. Coming for you in 3,186 theaters, the dynamic duo might arrest about $36M this weekend.

Pop singer Mandy Moore goes brunette for her second major film outing in the romantic drama How to Deal from New Line Cinema. The teen queen plays a high school student who loses faith in the concept of love, until a hunk to remember walks into her life. Trent Ford and Allison Janney co-star. The PG-13 film will appeal primarily to young females and is not likely to crossover to other quadrants. In fact, nobody will be surprised if exit polls show a 70% female skew like her previous film A Walk to Remember generated in its $12.2M bow last year. Legally Blonde 2 will be the only main competitor for How to Deal which has not spent much on marketing outside of its core audience of teen girls. Disney's Friday evening sneak preview of the Lindsay Lohan-Jamie Lee Curtis comedy Freaky Friday won't help opening night sales either. Coping in over 2,200 theaters, the Mandy Moore vehicle could open with about $9M this weekend.

Rowan Atkinson and John Malkovich make up a milder set of bad boys in the international blockbuster comedy Johnny English which Universal unleashes in North America this weekend. The PG flick finds Atkinson playing a bumbling desk-bound British secret agent who gets bumped up to head spy and takes on a diabolical French villain (Malkovich). The James Bond spoof is no Austin Powers, but the lack of good comedies this summer could work in its favor. Overseas, English has grossed over $117M, however that does not mean the trim 87-minute film will click with Yanks. The British-French rivalry at the heart of the picture will not do much for American moviegoers and the starpower is less than stellar. Atkinson crossed the pond successfully with 1997's Bean which bowed nationally with $12.7M from 1,948 theaters for a solid $6,537 average. With the studio's mild marketing campaign, this mission could be riskier. Opening in 2,100 theaters, Johnny English might debut with around $8M this weekend.

Disney struck gold with its action adventure epic Pirates of the Caribbean which hauled in over $70M in five days. On top of that, midweek grosses have been exceptionally strong and positive word-of-mouth is keeping this blockbuster afloat. With such strength, the Johnny Depp film hopes to be the first number-one opener to not suffer a second weekend drop of more than 50% since the studio's own Finding Nemo. A drop of 40% would give the PG-13 pic $28M for the weekend and a sinister $126M after just 12 days. With its aquatic adventures Pirates and Nemo, Disney has held a firm grip on the market share lead this year making all other studios sea sick.

Fox's The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen got off to a solid start last weekend despite stiff competition from Pirates. Midweek grosses have been respectable and a shameless plug at the start of Tuesday's baseball All-Star Game (on the Fox network) for the "Major League of Extraordinary Gentlemen" will probably not do much to keep momentum going. A 45% decline to $13M could result giving the Sean Connery vehicle $45M in ten days.

Terminator 3 looks to drop 45% to $11M and lift its blockbuster cume to $129M. Fellow sequel Legally Blonde 2 could fall 40% to $7M for a 19-day tally of $76M. Disney and Pixar will pop out the champagne this weekend as their darling child Finding Nemo will swim past the $300M mark joining the 1994 megahit The Lion King as the only animated films to ever reach the triple-century club. A 30% decline would give the G-rated toon $6M for the session and $302M overall.

[Jedi]

Bad Boys 2 $40M
Piarates of the Caribbean $29M
Johnny English $15.5M
How To Deal $11.5M
LXG $11M
T3 $10.5M
Legally Blonde 2 $6.5M
Finding Nemo $6M
Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle $4.5M
28 Days Later $2.8M

[1ofthebluesbros]

Bad Boys 2~ 38.5
Pirates of the Caribean~20.5
How To Deal~ 14
Terminator 3~16.5
Johnny Englsh~12
LXG~11.5

[MadsenOMC]

Could be a busy weekend. At least four and possibly six movies making at least $10 million.

[movies35]

**THEATER COUNTS**1
1
Terminator 3:
Rise of the Machines
Warner Bros.
3,404
-100
3

2
3
Pirates of the Caribbean
Disney
3,359
+90
2

3
2
Legally Blonde 2:
Red, White and Blonde
MGM
3,205
-170
3

4
N
Bad Boys II
Sony
3,186
-
1

5
6
The League of
Extraordinary Gentlemen
Fox
3,002
0
2

6
7
Finding Nemo
Disney
2,480
-163
8

7
N
How to Deal
New Line
2,319
-
1

8
4
Charlie's Angels:
Full Throttle
Sony
2,261
-941
4

9
N
Johnny English
Universal
2,236
-
1

10
5
Sinbad:
Legend of the Seven Seas
DreamWorks
2,017
-1,069
3

11
8
The Hulk
Universal
1,325
-1,250
5

12
10
28 Days Later
Fox Searchlight
1,310
-86
4

-
-
Freaky Friday
(7/18 Sneak attached to Nemo)
Disney
999
-
1

13
9
Bruce Almighty
Universal
990
-439
9

14
11
The Italian Job
Paramount
953
-411
8

15
12
Rugrats Go Wild
Paramount
706
-466
6

16
13
2 Fast 2 Furious
Universal
635
-396
7

17
17
Whale Rider
Newmarket
442
+171
7

18
14
The Matrix Reloaded
Warner Bros.
275
-231
10

19
18
Chicago
Miramax
230
-32
30

20
15
Holes
Disney
N/A
-
14

21
24
Dumb and Dumberer
New Line
157
-26
6

22
22
Bend It Like Beckham
Fox Searchlight
155
-40
19

23
-
Swimming Pool
Focus
137
+72
3

24
23
The In-Laws
Warner Bros.
136
-48
9

25
-
Winged Migration
Sony Classics
118
-5
14

-
16
Daddy Day Care
Sony
N/A
-
11

-
21
X2: X-Men United
Fox
N/A
-
12

-
-
Capturing the Friedmans
Magnolia
78
+4
8

-
20
Alex and Emma
Warner Bros.
77
-178
5

-
-
The Man on the Train
Par. Classics
76
-3
11

-
-
The Two Towers
New Line
57
-14
31

-
-
L'Auberge Espagnole
Fox Searchlight
42
-28
10

-
-
The Quiet American
Miramax
42
+33
35

-
-
A Mighty Wind
Warner Bros.
34
-16
14

-
-
Together
United Artists
32
-6
8

-
-
I Capture the Castle
IDP
26
+18
2

-
-
The Hard Word
Lions Gate
26
-4
6

-
-
Jet Lag
Miramax
24
+2
6

-
N
Garage Days
Fox Searchlight
23
-
1

-
-
Northfork
Par. Classics
14
+9
2

-
-
Blue Car
Miramax
7
0
12

-
-
The Cuckoo
Sony Classics
6
0
2

-
-
The Housekeeper
Palm
6
0
2

-
N
Dirty Pretty Things
Miramax
5
-
1

-
-
KM.0
TLA
5
+4
2

-
N
The Sea is Watching
Sony Repertory
5
-
1

-
-
House of Fools
Par. Classics
4
-1
13

-
-
Madame Sata
Wellspring
3
-1
2

-
-
The Trip
TLA
3
-1
11

-
N
The Anarchist Cookbook
Innovation
2
-
1

-
N
The Embalmer
First Run
2
-
1

-
-
The Holy Land
CAVU
1
0
2

[Reloaded]

Bad Boys 2- 50 Million- This will appeal to all ages even kids. Since alot of parents these days are letting there kids see bad R rate films I predict this will send a few kids to each showing worldwide this weekend. It will appeal to teens very much and in Canada it is rated AA (must be 14 or must be accumputed by a person 18 or older) so that will boost some numbers.

How To Deal- 10 Million- This will appeal to little girls and teenage girls and that's it. It may make around 13 million if Bad Boys sells out and people decide this instead.

Johnny English- 15 million- This will appeal to all ages but only fans of Bean will go. 18 million tops.

[movies35]

Originally posted by Reloaded

This will appeal to little girls and teenage girls and that's it.

Sorry, but I really have to disagree with you there. When I saw a sneak preview of How To Deal, it was packed it girls and BOYS of al ages.

[MadsenOMC]

Sorry, but the main box office for How to Deal will be generated by teen and pre-teen girls. Sure, some guys of that age who think Moore is cute will go, but not an abundance of them. I can't imagine too many guys wanting to see it.

[Ron34]

Bad boys 2 - 40-50 million

[Mike]

-------OFFICIAL THEATER COUNTS-------


NEW

Bad Boys II (Sony) / 3,186

How to Deal (New Line) / 2,319

Johnny English (Universal) / 2,236

Garage Days (Fox Searchlight) / 23

Dirty Pretty Things (Miramax) / 5 (LA, NYC)

The Sea is Watching (Sony Repertory) / 5 (LA, NYC, Boston, Seattle)

The Anarchist Cookbook (Innovation) / 2 (LA, NYC)

The Embalmer (First Run) / 2 (NYC, DC)


EXPANDING

Pirates of the Caribbean (Disney) / 3,359 (+90) / 2

Whale Rider (Newmarket) / 442 (+171) / 7

Swimming Pool (Focus) / 137 (+72) / 3

Capturing the Friedmans (Magnolia) / 78 (+4) / 8

The Quiet American (Miramax) / 42 (+33) / 35

I Capture the Castle (IDP) / 26 (+18) / 2

Jet Lag (Miramax) / 24 (+2) / 6

Northfork (Paramount Classics) / 14 (+9) / 2

KM.0 (TLA) / 5 (+4) / 2


NO CHANGE

The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen (Fox) / 3,002 / 2

Blue Car (Miramax) / 7 / 12

The Cuckoo (SPC) / 6 / 2

The Housekeeper (Palm) / 6 / 2


DECLINING

Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (Warner Bros.) / 3,404 (-100) / 3

Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde (MGM) / 3,205 (-170) / 3

Finding Nemo (Disney) / 2,480 (-163) / 8

Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle (Sony) / 2,261 (-941) / 4

Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas (DreamWorks) / 2,017 (-1,069) / 3

The Hulk (Universal) / 1,325 (-1,250) / 5

28 Days Later (Fox Searchlight) / 1,310 (-86) / 4

Bruce Almighty (Universal) / 990 (-439) / 9

The Italian Job (Paramount) / 953 (-411) / 8

Rugrats Go Wild (Paramount) / 706 (-466) / 6

2 Fast 2 Furious (Universal) / 635 (-396) / 7

The Matrix Reloaded (Warner Bros.) / 275 (-231) / 10

Chicago (Miramax) / 230 (-42) / 30

Dumb and Dumberer (New Line) / 157 (-26) / 6

Bend It Like Beckham (Fox Searchlight) / 155 (-40) / 19

The In-Laws (Warner Bros) / 136 (-48) / 9

Winged Migration (SPC) / 118 (-5) / 14

Alex and Emma (Warner Bros.) / 77 (-178) / 5

The Man on the Train (Paramount Classics) / 76 (-3) / 11

The Two Towers (New Line) / 57 (-14) / 31

L'Auberge Espagnole (Fox Searchlight) / 42 (-28) / 10

A Mighty Wind (Warner Bros.) / 34 (-16) / 14

Together (United Artists) / 32 (-6) / 8

The Hard Word (Lions Gate) / 26 (-4) / 6

House of Fools (Paramount Classics) / 4 (-1) / 13

Madame Sata (Wellspring) / 3 (-1) / 2

The Trip (TLA) / 3 (-1) / 11


SNEAK PREVIEW 7/18/2003

Freaky Friday (Disney) / 999 (attached to Finding Nemo)




******MY FINAL PREDICTIONS******


1. BAD BOYS 2 - 37.9 MILLION
2. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN - 28 MILLION
3. HOW TO DEAL - 14.1 MILLION
4. JOHNNY ENGLISH - 13.5 MILLION
5. THE LEAGUE - 11.5 MILLION
6. T3 - 11.3 MILLION
7. LEGALLY BLONDE 2 - 6.6 MILLION
8. FINDING NEMO - 6.2 MILLION
9. CHARLIE'S ANGELS 2 - 3.7 MILLION
10. 28 DAYS LATER - 3 MILLION
11. SINBAD - 2.6 MILLION
12. THE ITALIAN JOB - 1.9 MILLION
13. THE HULK - 1.8 MILLION
14. BRUCE ALMIGHTY - 1.4 MILLION
15. WHALE RIDER - 1.1 MILLION
16. SWIMMING POOL - 1 MILLION
17. 2 FAST 2 FURIOUS - 0.8

[Mike]

This is from Box Office Prophets:


Weekend Forecast for July 18-20, 2003
By Reagen Sulewski


What would the summer be without a noisy cop buddy action movie? "Exactly," says Jerry Bruckheimer. So, whether we wanted it or not, we have Bad Boys II, the headlining film for this weekend. The Summer of Sequels continues, though with the way it has gone so far both box office-wise and audience fulfillment-wise, it might be more accurate to start calling it the Summer of Lowered Expectations.

Bad Boys, released in April of 1995, became a lot more significant in retrospect than your average off-season action film normally would be. With the first feature directorial effort from Michael Bay and the first lead performances from Will Smith and Martin Lawrence, it was the most career-making movie of 1995. Now, if we'd known that these careers would lead to Armageddon, Wild Wild West and What's the Worst That Could Happen?, we might have been more apprehensive about giving these three the chance to be stars.

What's done is done, though, and with Smith's and Lawrence's careers reeling from a string of unimpressive films and Bay with several thousand edits just going to waste, the "return to what you know" move makes a lot of sense for all involved. It's similar to what Arnold tried recently with Terminator 3, a comparison that may or may not leave you excited for Bad Boys II. So what's the plot? Who cares? Bigger, faster, louder is the theme of the day to the point where it might as well be called 'Splosion: The Motion Picture.

The box office potential here depends a great deal on what appetite there still is for the Die Hard/Lethal Weapon style of action flick, as well as how much star power Smith and Lawrence still command. Despite its general awfulness, Men In Black II still managed a $50 million plus opening weekend last summer and this winter's National Security was a $16 million debut for Lawrence. Reviews have not been kind at all, but this is a relatively review-proof film. Just put up the footage of the exploding cars (one word about CGI car chases: ugh) and you've got your audience, though as the summer may be showing, they're starting to get a little wise to Hollywood's ploys. In 3,186 venues, Bad Boys II should be able to pull in a respectable $43 million over the weekend. With the reported budget of $75 million looking positively thrifty in today's economy, that should be enough to put it on the "happy face" side of the ledgers.

When you think "International Box Office stars," you generally make up a list of action stars and pretty boys like Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sylvester Stallone, Tom Cruise and Leonardo DiCaprio. Bonus points if you include Rowan Atkinson in this list, who has twice taken a film to $100 million before it ever hit American shores. The 1998 smash Bean made a ridiculous $186.7 million in international money compared to the meager $45 million from North American moviegoers, a ratio that becomes even more impressive when considering Atkinson's popularity in Canada. His Friday-opening film, Johnny English, has brought in $106 million to this point, making whatever it brings in stateside gravy.

Atkinson applies his considerable physical comedic skills to the spy spoof, but one wonders if there's anything that hasn't already been covered by Austin Powers and Peter Sellers movies. The spy spoof has proven to have legs as a genre and English, which appears to be aiming for a slightly younger audience than others with its PG rating, may grab some counter-programming money for Universal. On a modest 2,236 screens, look for $14 million for its first three days.

The past two years have seen a virtual explosion of films aimed at a young (teen and pre-teen) female audience. Mandy Moore brings the next entry in this group with How to Deal, a relatively adult shift to the "young girl finds the perfect boy" story, contrasting her arc with a haggard-looking Allison Janney (of West Wing fame) as her mother. A Walk to Remember was a decent-sized hit for Moore in 2002, opening to $12 million and finishing north of $40 million. Though the Hillary Duff and Amanda Bynes films have been successful to a similar degree, How to Deal doesn't appear to have the spirit of fun that these films did. It likely will not be able to repeat the performance of A Walk to Remember, especially when it's not the main show for the weekend. This should result in about $9 million for a start.

In a summer short on word of mouth hits, Pirates of the Caribbean stands out among an ocean full of shipwrecked blockbusters. With Bad Boys II and this film, Jerry Bruckheimer will be the producer of the top two films of the weekend. A movie of pure fun, Pirates could very well be the movie of the second half of the summer. With 30% drops signaling phenomenal performance lately, Pirates could do even better than that, earning $33 million. In any event, the $125 million mark will be passed during the weekend.

Moving in the opposite direction is The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen, which may just be the flop of the year. There's no telling how much of a falloff from its first weekend might be in store, with the 70% barrier nearly broken by Hulk. Under $10 million seems assured, with $6-8 million as a fair range for this piece of cinematic crap. More comic book movies are a good thing, but let's do them right.

The July 4th openers were lucky to fall as little as they did. Terminator 3 dropped 56% to just under $20 million, while Legally Blonde fell a "mere" 46% to $12 million. Neither seems likely to recover to any great degree, though Terminator 3 does appear to getting a bit of a post-opening weekend push, a rarity in this ear of disposable movies. The animated Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas fell just 37%, helped out by kiddie audiences, but it's far too late for this disaster to recover. It sheds a ridiculous 1,000 plus screens in just its third weekend. DreamWorks may be able to sell computer animation but traditional animation remains a Disney stronghold.

Disney doesn't do too shabby with the computer animation itself, as Finding Nemo will pass the $300 million mark this weekend. Given the dramatic increase in each successive Pixar film and the huge leap in earnings from the November releases to this May release, the next film from this partnership will either be a monumental record breaker or a crushing disappointment.

[MadsenOMC]

Where in the hell do box office prophets get their information? A $75 million budget for Bad Boys II!? What are they smoking? Maybe that was what they initially were shooting for. But it cost well over $100 million. Somewhere between $125 million and $150 million.