Next Weekend B.O. Predictions (American Wedding, Gigli, Bend It Like Beckham)

[Mike]

**********EST. THEATER COUNTS**********

American Wedding - 3,000

Gigli - 2,000+

Bend It Like Beckham - 1,200

Scorched - 14

The Magdalene Sisters - 5 (LA, NYC, SF)

And Now Ladies and Gentlemen - 5 (LA, NYC)



-----MY PREDICTIONS-----


AMERICAN WEDDING - 44.4 MILLION

GIGLI - 11.4 MILLION

BEND IT LIKE BECKHAM - 4.5 MILLION (I think it should at least be able to make around that.)

[Tom Samborski]

American Wedding- $39 million
Gigli- $14 million
Bend It Like Beckham- $3 million

[dh1989]

American Wedding - 16 million
Gigli - 13 million
Bend It Like Beckham - 6.5 million

[Sad man]

Originally posted by dh1989
American Wedding - 16 million

You really think so? I mean, the first two made tons of money...

*My predictions*

AMERICAN WEDDING - $46 mill.
BEND IT LIKE BECKHAM - $2.5 mill.
GIGLI - $16 mill.

[thompsoncory]

AMERICAN WEDDING - $46 million
GIGLI - $17 million
BEND IT LIKE BECKHAM - $8 million

[movies35]

Gigli- 9 million

American Wedding- 34 million

Bend it Like Beckham- 4 million

[Aidan Pryde]

Are they re-releasing Bend it like Beckham? because as I recall it came out a few months ago and then ended it's run recently.

[Mike]

Originally posted by Aidan Pryde
Are they re-releasing Bend it like Beckham? because as I recall it came out a few months ago and then ended it's run recently.

Well, it's still playing in theaters (118 as of this weekend), but is going much wider (by far the widest it has ever been in the U.S.) next weekend... I'm glad they decided to do this, because as I watched its theater count keep decreasing each week recently I kept thinking "they are blowing it, this could do even better if they'd go wider." I'm really glad they are going to go wider with it.

[Jedi]

American Wedding $37M
Gigli $18M
Bend It Like Beckham $3M (I don't see it making big numbers. It's already made $25M+ from 555 theatres so those who wanted to see it have already done. But it maybe a big surprise too. And at least it's supposed to be a good movie)

[Narst]

American Wedding - $42 Million

Gigli - $12 Million

Bend It Like Beckham - $4.5 Million

[Frank the Tank]

American Wedding 42mil
Gigli 5million I just think it will flop bad
Bend It Like Beckham 4million

[Mike]

Originally posted by Jedi
Bend It Like Beckham $3M (I don't see it making big numbers. It's already made $25M+ from 555 theatres so those who wanted to see it have already done. But it maybe a big surprise too. And at least it's supposed to be a good movie)

It's made over 26 Million so far, and will make over 30 Million at least by the end of its run. But anyway, I'm sure there's quite a few that wanted to see it that didn't yet. It wasn't playing at a theater within 50+ Miles around me the whole time it was playing. So some people weren't able to see it because it wasn't wide enough. Plus the word of mouth is very strong, and Keira Knightley (The Hole) is now an "IT" girl with the release of the HUGE hit Pirates Of The Caribbean, and she wasn't that big during most of the time the movie was playing, until now. And once it opens wider, good word of mouth could help it keep good holds.

[thompsoncory]

My Very Early Predictions

1) AMERICAN WEDDING - $46.5 million
2) SPY KIDS 3D: GAME OVER - $23 million
3) PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN - $18 million
4) GIGLI - $17 million
5) SEABISCUIT - $16.5 million
6) TOMB RAIDER: THE CRADLE OF LIFE - $14.7 million
7) BAD BOYS II - $10 million
8) FINDING NEMO - $5 million
9) BEND IT LIKE BECKHAM - $4.5 million
10) TERMINATOR 3 - $3.5 million

[Ripper1888]

American Weddin 45 million

Bend It Like Beckham 5 million

Gigli 17 million

[XCoRyX]

1. American Wedding- $31 Million
2. Spy Kids 3D- $24 Million
3. Pirates Of Carribean- $18
4. Gigli- $12 Million
-- Bend It Like Beckham- $3.6 Million

[movies35]

1) AMERICAN WEDDING - 36.4
2) SPY KIDS 3D: GAME OVER - 18.7
3) PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN - 18.4
4) Tomb Raider 2 - 16 million
5) SEABISCUIT - 15.8
6) Gigli - 8.6
7) BAD BOYS II - 6.5
8) FINDING NEMO - 5.4
9) BEND IT LIKE BECKHAM - 4.5
10) TERMINATOR 3 - 3.7

[dh1989]

Originally posted by movies35
4) Tomb Raider 2 - 16 million

'movies35,' you REALLY think Tomb Raider 2 will have the best hold of all of last week's releases?

[ANTBond007]

Of the new (and old but new)...

American Wedding $44.3M
Gigli $4.7M
Bend It Like Beckham $3.7M

[Mike]

This is from Coming Soon:

Beckham to Expand, Confessions Not So Much
Source: Variety
Wednesday, July 30, 2003

Playing off the popularity of co-star Keira Knightley, Fox Searchlight this weekend will re-expand the romantic comedy Bend It Like Beckham, reaching wide release for the first time in over 1000 theaters. New TV ads refer to "'Pirates of the Caribbean's' Keira Knightley," in hopes of enticing some of the millions who have seen that hit actioner to the long-playing soccer film.

"Beckham," which co-stars Parminder Nagra, reached the box office top 10 in May with just 555 playdates, including a core number of arthouse engagements. Through Sunday, the modestly budgeted British- and Indian-themed pic had rung up $26.3 million domestically.

Meanwhile, Miramax has revealed it's going the other direction with Confessions of a Dangerous Mind, planning to re-release the George Clooney film in only a limited number of theaters on August 15. The studio will bring the film to New York and L.A. at first, expanding it further only if the box office there signals market interest. Miramax had originally planned for a 1,000-plus theater re-release.

[movies35]

Originally posted by dh1989
'movies35,' you REALLY think Tomb Raider 2 will have the best hold of all of last week's releases?

Well, it could hold up...

[Jedi]

American Wedding: $39M
Spy Kids 3-D: $18.5M
Piarates of the Caribbean: $15.5M
Seabiscuit: $14.5M
Gigli: $14M
Bad Boys II: $12.5M
Tomb Raider- Cradle of Life: $10.6M
Bend it Like Beckham: $3.8M
Finding Nemo: $3.4M
T3- Rise of the Machines: $3M

[JCR]

I would be shocked if gigli (sidenote stating the obvious- that is a really stupid title) took more than $10M this weekend. I can't remember a film getting word of mouth like this, every review it gets seems to be worse than the last one. Batman and robin and the avengers both had a better buzz than this. Althought it's their own fault. They coulda made a nice fluffy pg13 rom com with "Ben and Jen" ("Ben and Jen"? Yuk yuk yuk!) and watched it take $150M+ total. But no they chose to make a movie that is gonna be best remembered for the line "gobble gobble". Serves 'em right.

[Horror whore]

1.) American Wedding (48.4 million)
2.) Spy Kids 3D (17.5 million)
3.) Seabiscuit (13.3 million)
4.) Pirates of the Carribean (13.2 million)
5.) Bad Boys II (11.7 million)
6.) Tomb Raider 2 (9.8 million)
7.) Gigli (8.4 million)
8.) Finding Nemo (5 million)
9.) Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (3.4 million)
10.) Bend It Like Beckham (2.1 million)

[Mike]

This is from Box Office Guru:

THIS WEEKEND In a battle of the R-rated couples, Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck take their poorly-reviewed Gigli and race to the altar against the mighty sequel American Wedding. Meanwhile, Universal expands its hit horse drama Seabiscuit, Fox Searchlight widens its indie sensation Bend It Like Beckham, and Spy Kids 3D and Pirates of the Caribbean remain strong holdovers in the first weekend of the final month of summer.

With hopes of scoring its eventual fifth $100M hit of the summer, Universal releases American Wedding, the third and presumably last piece of the American Pie series. The R-rated comedy finds Jim (Jason Biggs) and Michelle (Alyson Hannigan) ) all grown up and getting married while their family and friends join the fun with the typical gross-out humor. Though regulars like Seann William Scott and Eugene Levy are back, nearly half the cast of the first two did not receive invitations including Chris Klein, Mena Suvari, Tara Reid, Shannon Elizabeth, and Natasha Lyonne.

Franchises are difficult to keep fresh and interesting by the third installment. Instead of bringing in Sylvester Stallone and making the film 3D, the American Pie series received a slight title change and added nuptials. The tactic should work to some extent as wedding films tend to bring in audiences, even ones that are not Greek. As a film in the marketplace, American Wedding offers the same type of humor as the previous pics so many of the satisfied fans of teens and young adults will come out for another helping. And marketing Wedding as the "thrilling climax" is smart as it tells the audience that this is the last trip they will ever have with these lovable characters so it is not to be missed.

However, parts of the film seem stale and redundant and there will be a portion of the fan base that just isn't excited by these characters and situations anymore. The first American Pie was an underdog hit in July 1999 opening at number one with $18.7M on its way to $101.8M. American Pie 2 was a heavily marketed sequel that bowed in August 2001 to $45.1M and reached $145.1M. With sequel backlash affecting a number of franchises lately, American Wedding could generate a debut in between its two older siblings. Regardless, it looks to become the eighth sequel to open at number one this summer and the fourth R-rated pic to bow at the top. Cutting the cake in 3,174 theaters, American Wedding may find itself registered with around $35M worth of gifts this weekend.

A highly-publicized romance tries to compensate for poor filmmaking this weekend as the Jennifer Lopez-Ben Affleck romp Gigli hits the screen on a wave of negative buzz. Directed by Martin Brest (Scent of a Woman, Beverly Hills Cop), the R-rated comedy finds B. Af playing a hitman who finds himself teamed up with J. Lo on a crooked mission. Early reviews have been atrocious and Friday morning's should be even worse as critics fight over the wittiest way to describe how much they disliked the film. Tough love indeed. The poorly-titled Gigli has been knocked around the release schedule and most recently was pushed from its Wednesday bow on July 30 to a standard Friday launch. It was a smart move on Sony's part as bad word-of-mouth beginning during the week would have killed the film by the weekend.

The much-talked-about film's only hope at the box office comes from its first-time pairing of the two beloved tabloid stars. Despite the lack of quality in Gigli, there are a number of curious fans that will pay money to see Ben and Jen in a movie together. Both stars are reliable box office draws, so the combination could lead to at least decent results before the inevitable Hulk-like dropoffs occur. Trailers and commercials show no chemistry between the two leads and even the plot of the story does not come across well. Debuting in 2,215 theaters, Gigli may find itself with around $11M this weekend.

Fox Searchlight re-expands its independent hit Bend It Like Beckham this Friday widening from 119 to 990 theaters nationwide. With so many summer films losing steam so quickly, and Keira Knightley shooting to fame after Pirates of the Caribbean, the distributor is hoping to find another round of interest, especially from markets where the film has still not played in yet. Last year, My Big Fat Greek Wedding generated terrific results week after week after its April debut. But it wasn't until August that the film popped and climbed north of number ten to become a nationwide phenomenon playing opposite crappy late-summer films. This weekend, with a new ad campaign kicking in, Beckham might find itself with about $3.5M which would put its domestic total at $30M.

After a lively debut at number one last weekend, Miramax's Spy Kids 3-D is looking to become that rare third part in a franchise that outgrosses the previous two installments joining last summer's Austin Powers in Goldmember. With a pair of new R-rated films entering the field, competition for the Robert Rodriguez hit should not be too fierce. Second weekend declines for Game Over's older siblings include 36% for Spy Kids in April 2001 and 31% for its Wednesday-bowing sequel last August. 3-D might fall 40% to around $20M giving the adventure sequel a mighty $70M in only ten days.

Disney's unstoppable sea adventure Pirates of the Caribbean has been displaying great staying power so a 35% decline would give the Johnny Depp film $15M for the session and a towering $206M to date. Sony's Bad Boys II looks to fall 50% to $11M with a cume of $110M. Lara Croft Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life disappointed last weekend and a steep 55% tumble could be in order giving the Paramount action sequel $10M for the weekend and $41M after ten days.

Universal was fast out of the gate last weekend with Seabiscuit which averaged a brawny $10,485 per theater and has kept up the pace during the midweek period. The studio will boost the theater count from 1,989 to 2,421 for an addition of 432 playdates on Friday hoping to capitalize on the good reviews and the strong buzz. The core audience of adult women will see a little competition from Gigli, but will overall still be looking to ride with Seabiscuit. A 25% drop would give the Tobey Maguire drama $14M for the weekend and a remarkable ten-day tally of $46M.

[Mike]

Box Office Guru made a mistake. A 25% drop for Seabiscuit wouldn't be 14 Million, it would be around 15.6 Million. I thought it seemed funny, 14 Million just seemed way too low for a drop of only 25%.

[thompsoncory]

FINAL PREDICTIONS

1) AMERICAN WEDDING - $46.4 million
2) SPY KIDS 3-D: GAME OVER - $20.1 million
3) SEABISCUIT - $18.7 million
4) PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN - $15.8 million
5) BAD BOYS II - $13.1 million
6) TOMB RAIDER 2: THE CRADLE OF LIFE - $12.7 million
7) GIGLI - $10.2 million
8) BEND IT LIKE BECKHAM - $4.9 million
9) TERMINATOR 3: RISE OF THE MACHINES - $3.4 million
10) THE LEAGUE OF EXTRAORDINARY GENTLEMEN - $2.1 million

[Mike]

***************MY PREDICTIONS***************

1. AMERICAN WEDDING - 44.4 MILLION
2. SPY KIDS 3-D: GAME OVER - 18.4 MILLION
3. SEABISCUIT - 17.7 MILLION
4. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN - 15.5 MILLION
5. BAD BOYS 2 - 11 MILLION
6. TOMB RAIDER 2 - 10.9 MILLION
7. GIGLI - 8.8 MILLION
8. BEND IT LIKE BECKHAM - 3.5 MILLION
9. FINDING NEMO - 3 MILLION
10. T3 - 2.8 MILLION
11. JOHNNY ENGLISH - 2.68 MILLION
12. THE LEAGUE - 2.5 MILLION
13. 28 DAYS LATER - 1.64 MILLION
14. LEGALLY BLONDE 2 - 1.35 MILLION
15. HOW TO DEAL - 1 MILLION
16. SWIMMING POOL - 0.9
17. WHALE RIDER - 0.868
18. CHARLIE'S ANGELS 2 - 0.657
19. THE ITALIAN JOB - 0.6

[Mike]

I've had this feeling all week that GIGLI is going to open poorly, and obviously fall FAST. I definitely don't see it opening with more than 11 Million, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it made only 6 Million. I doubt it will finish its run at the Box Office with more than 24 Million. I'll say it should finish somewhere between 21-24 Million.

[dindio]

My prediction
American Wedding $40-50 million
Gigli $15-20 million

[jolanar]

American Wedding - 28 Million - I think this will have moderate success. The first two were very succesful. I don't think this one will do as good in the Box Office but it certainly won't dissapoint.

Gigli -9 Million - I just don't see this movie making over 10 million. Romantic comedies that focus on the romance never do that well in the theatres.

Bend it Like Beckham - 2.5 Million - Lets face it, the only people who were interested in this movie, saw it a long time ago. Readvertising it because of the success of Pirates is shameful, but it will do enough to draw in a very small crowd.

Pirates of the Carribean - 17 Million - Yup I see this doing another good weekend at second place.

[Freeway]

American Wedding - Great TV spots and a general positive attitude towards the franchise leads to an opening of about 35 mil.

Gigli - Looks terrible and the casting won't help much but it still could scrounge upi about 8-10 million for the weekend.

Only 2 more weekends until Freddy VS. Jason arrives. I can't wait!

[max]

Mike on Gigli's b.o. prospects: and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it made only 6 Million.

Honestly? Rigli, rigli honestly? Well, Box Office Mojo estimates its Friday take at $1.47 mil.. So it might not even make $5 mil..

[Mike]

Originally posted by max
Honestly? Rigli, rigli honestly? Well, Box Office Mojo estimates its Friday take at $1.47 mil.. So it might not even make $5 mil..

I actually don't even think it will make a penny more than 4.5 Million. Something between 4-4.5 Million seems likely.