Next Weekend Box Office Predictions (S.W.A.T., Freaky Friday, Le Divorce)

[dh1989]

http://images.amazon.com/images/P/B00005JMD3.01.MZZZZZZZ.jpg - http://images.amazon.com/images/P/B00005JMCU.01.MZZZZZZZ.jpg - http://images.amazon.com/images/P/B00005JMCC.01.MZZZZZZZ.jpg

ESTIMATED THEATRE COUNTS:

S.W.A.T. (Sony) - 3,000

Freaky Friday (Disney) - 2,800 (Opens on Wednesday, 7/6/03)

Limited Releases ---

Le Divorce (Fox Searchlight) - 33

Step Into Liquid (Artisian) - 6

Seaside (Disney) - 1 (Opens on Wednesday, 7/6/03)

***

My PREDICTIONS:

S.W.A.T. - 37 million

Freaky Friday - 15 million (3-day) ; 24 million (5-day)

What do you schmoes think?

[Tom Samborski]

S.W.A.T- $32 million
Freaky Friday- $17 million (3 Day)/$26 million (5 Day)

[thompsoncory]

S.W.A.T - $41 million
Freaky Friday - $22 million (3-day)/$36 million (5-day)
Le Divorce - $1.5 million

[Frank the Tank]

S.W.A.T. 30mil
Freaky Friday 3 day 13mil 5day 22mil

[sarah1980]

S.W.A.T. 40 Millon

Freaky Friday 27 Millon

[jolanar]

Swat - 24 Million - This (like most action movies) will attract the people lookin for a good action movie. If Bad Boys 2 is any indication of how bad people want to go see an action movie, I think this one will do a little over half of what BB2 made.



Freaky Friday - 27 Million - This will attract people of all ages. Parents who take their children (cha ching) and older people who go see it because they liked the old one.

Le Divorce - Don't know, don't care. :)

[A.J. Hakari]

S.W.A.T. - $20-$29 million
FREAKY FRIDAY - $15-$21 million

[Scarface98.9]

SWAT: $27M

Freaky Friday: $14M

I doubt Le Divorce will make much money, even for limited release standards. I doubt it'll expand all that much

[Strider]

"S.W.A.T." - $23 Million

"Freaky Friday" - $16 Million

"Le Divorce" - $2 Million

[thompsoncory]

I have a feeling that FREAKY FRIDAY will surprise and become this year's PRINCESS DIARIES. It's got great early buzz (including a commendable A- from Entertainment Weekly) and appealing trailers/TV spots. I think this will draw in audiences and may even make it past $100 million.

[zeppelin]

1. S.W.A.T.- $30 million
2. Freaky Friday- $27 million
3. American Wedding- $24 million
4. Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over- $16 million
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl- $12 million
6. Seabiscuit- $10 million
7. Lara Croft Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life- $7 million
8. Bad Boys II- $6 million
9. Finding Nemo- $3 million
10. Gigli- $1 million

Le Divorce will probably make just under $1 million.

[DVDCollecter]

1. S.W.A.T.- $29.5 million
2. Freaky Friday- $27 million
3. Spy Kids- $20 million
4. American Wedding- $18.5million
5. Seasbiscuit-$13 million
6. Pirates - $12 million
7. Bad Boys- $6 million
8. Lara Croft- $6 million
9. Finding Nemo- $4 million
10. Le Divorce - $1 million

Gigli GONE, under $1 million

[XCoRyX]

SWAT- $39 Million
American Wedding- $20 Million
Freaky Friday- $17 Million

[Jedi]

S.W.A.T $25M
Freaky Friday $20M
Le Divorce $13M

[Mike]

************MY PREDICTIONS*************


1. S.W.A.T. - 27.2 MILLION
2. FREAKY FRIDAY - 18.4 MILLION (3-Day)/27.5 MILLION (5-Day)
3. AMERICAN WEDDING - 17 MILLION
4. SEABISCUIT - 14.5 MILLION
5. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN - 14.3 MILLION
6. SPY KIDS 3-D: GAME OVER - 11 MILLION
7. BAD BOYS 2 - 7 MILLION
8. TOMB RAIDER 2 - 5.9 MILLION
9. FINDING NEMO - 3.1 MILLION
10. THE LEAGUE - 1.9 MILLION
11. BEND IT LIKE BECKHAM - 1.8 MILLION
12. T3 - 1.7 MILLION
13. JOHNNY ENGLISH - 1.6 MILLION
14. GIGLI - 1.3 MILLION (A see a drop of around at least 65%)
15. 28 DAYS LATER - 1.2 MILLION
16. WHALE RIDER - 0.9
17. SWIMMING POOL - 0.9
18. LEGALLY BLONDE 2 - 0.7
19. LE DIVORCE - 0.6




I'm with thompsoncory, I think FREAKY FRIDAY will pretty much definitely make it to 100 Million. And with the way the reviews are, if audiences feel the same way (I'm sure they will), it might do even more. I think it will do better than The Princess Diaries, which was longer and didn't have as good of reviews.

[Jedi]

Originally posted by Mike
8. TOMB RAIDER 2 - 5.9 MILLION

Mike, Do you really think TR2 is going to drop more than 50% in its third weekend. I mean it held up way better than any one expected and didn't even drop a %50-65 like almost every big summer movie this year. I'm predicting a $40% drop this weekend. But, after all, who knows...

Man! If it just makes it to $80M. That will be great!

[Mike]

Originally posted by Jedi
Mike, Do you really think TR2 is going to drop more than 50% in its third weekend. I mean it held up way better than any one expected and didn't even drop a %50-65 like almost every big summer movie this year. I'm predicting a $40% drop this weekend. But, after all, who knows...

Man! If it just makes it to $80M. That will be great!

Umm, 5.9 Million isn't more than 50%, it's not even 50%, it's less than 50%. A 50% drop would be 5.669 Million. My prediction is a drop of around 48%.

[Jedi]

Originally posted by Mike
Umm, 5.9 Million isn't more than 50%, it's not even 50%, it's less than 50%. A 50% drop would be 5.669 Million. My prediction is a drop of around 48%.

Oops! :D Sorry man! I (somehow) counted it as a 52% drop. Silly me! :)

[thompsoncory]

My Predictions

1) S.W.A.T. - $40.1 million
2) Freaky Friday - $22.7 million (3-day)/$36.5 million (5-day)
3) American Wedding - $20.4 million
4) Seabiscuit - $14.9 million
5) Pirates Of The Caribbean - $14.7 million
6) Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over - $11.2 million
7) Bad Boys II - $7.5 million
8) Lara Croft, Tomb Raider: The Cradle Of Life - $6.3 million
9) Finding Nemo - $3.1 million
10) The League Of Extraordinary Gentlemen - $2 million
11) Bend It Like Beckham - $1.6 million
12) Terminator 3: Rise Of The Machines - $1.4 million
13) Gigli - $1.2 million
14) Swimming Pool - $1.1 million
15) Johnny English - $1 million

[Mike]

Originally posted by Jedi
Oops! :D Sorry man! I (somehow) counted it as a 52% drop. Silly me! :)

It's quite alright. ;)

[Mike]

My prediction for FREAKY FRIDAY has changed. I just have a feeling this one is going to have a really nice sized opening.

MY NEW PREDICTION:

3-DAY = 21.4 MILLION
5-DAY = 32.5 MILLION

[SuperSoulMan]

1.) S.W.A.T - 41.5 mil
2.) Freaky Friday - 28 mil (5 Day)
3.) Pirates of the Caribean - 19 mil
4.) American Wedding - 17 mil
5.) Seabiscuit - 14.5 mil
6.) Spy Kids 3 - 13 mil
7.) Bad Boys 2 - 7 mil
8.) Lara Croft 2 - 6 mil
9.) Finding Nemo - 2.3 mil
10.) T3 - 2 mil

[Mike]

This is from Box Office Guru:

THIS WEEKEND After nine consecutive weeks of new summer action movie openings, last weekend saw none. The long wait for action fans is now over as Sony unveils its cop thriller S.W.A.T. starring Samuel L. Jackson and Colin Farrell. Produced by Neal Moritz (The Fast and the Furious, XXX), the PG-13 film finds a Los Angeles Special Weapons And Tactics unit under fire when a captured criminal mastermind publicly offers a $100M reward to any group that could free him from police custody. Both lead actors are hard working as Jackson starred in four films last year and Farrell now graces the screens for the fourth time this year after The Recruit, Daredevil, and Phone Booth.

S.W.A.T. has many factors working in its favor including a strong cast (which also includes Michelle Rodriguez and LL Cool J), an intriguing concept, good marketing, and the lack of a number 2 in its title. However, it does enter the summer box office as the thirteenth action movie. Teens and young adults will probably make up most of the audience while a portion of those who remember the 1970s television series are likely to show up too. Farrell's rising starpower and sex appeal will certainly help bring in females while Jedi Master Windu always brings broad appeal to the table. A solid African-American turnout will also help. Debuting in 3,202 theaters, S.W.A.T. could find itself at number one this weekend with around $28M.

Disney's unblemished summer record gets put to the test this weekend with the mother-daughter comedy Freaky Friday which made an early bow on Wednesday to jumpstart the frame. Jamie Lee Curtis and The Parent Trap's Lindsay Lohan play the duo who find themselves living in each other's bodies which, of course, leads to wacky situations. The PG-rated film will certainly skew female and reach out to the family audience meaning the studio will continue to corner that market with Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean and subsidiary Miramax's Spy Kids 3-D.

Sneak previews three weeks ago and the mid-week launch allow good buzz to spread early before the bulk of the audience hits the theaters over the weekend. The Disney brand name, the appealing stars, and the recycled story will make the film draw parents who remember the Jodie Foster original as well as girls that will call this new one their own. Openings for recent pics aimed at this demo include $17.3M for May's The Lizzie McGuire Movie, $11.4M for April's What A Girl Wants, and the surprising $22.9M of Disney's late-summer entry The Princess Diaries from two years ago. Freaky Friday bowed on Wednesday in 2,710 locations and widens to 2,954 theaters on Friday. Look for a solid start with a weekend gross of around $19M and a five-day bow of $27M.

In limited release, Fox Searchlight debuts the James Ivory-directed romantic comedy Le Divorce starring Kate Hudson and Naomi Watts. The PG-13 pic opens in 34 theaters in ten cities. Also landing in top markets across North America is Bollywood's first science fiction film Koi...Mil Gaya starring Hrithik Roshan and Preity Zinta. The Hindi-language picture follows a man with the intellect of an eleven-year-old who comes in contact with an extra-terrestrial.

After a top spot bow, Universal's American Wedding should see its box office honeymoon come to an abrupt end with a substantial drop. In its second weekend, American Pie 2 tumbled 53% against relatively mild competition in August 2001. Wedding faces a tougher field so a 55% fall to $15M could result giving American Wedding $66M in ten days.

Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean is still sailing forward and a 25% decline to $14M could result giving the Johnny Depp blockbuster $234M to date. Seabiscuit is also showing strong legs and a 30% drop to $12M would put the Universal drama at $70M overall. Spy Kids 3-D will see some of its family crowd run off to Disney's Freaky Friday so a 45% decline to $11M would give the adventure sequel $89M in 17 days.

[slasherfan]

I'm ALWAYS dead wrong but.
1.Freaky Friday $35-40 mil
2. Swat $10-15 mil