Upcoming Fall Box Office Predictions

[thompsoncory]

I love doing these threads. You know the deal, predict the opening weekend and final take of the movie. Here are my predictions:

EDIT: Deleted earlier predictions

October 10
- Good Boy! - $5 million/$15 million
- House of the Dead - $3 million/$7 million
- Intolerable Cruelty - $23 million/$100 million
- Kill Bill: Volume 1 - $31 million/$110 million

October 17
- Runaway Jury - $24 million/$101 million
- The Texas Chainsaw Massacre - $36 million/$115 million
- Veronica Guerin - $10 million/$40 million

October 24
- Beyond Borders - $12 million/$35 million
- Gothika - $19 million/$55 million
- In The Cut - $6 million/$14 million
- Scary Movie 3 - $39 million/$125 million

November 1
- Brother Bear - $35 million/$130 million

November 5
- The Matrix Revolutions - $96 million/$325 million

November 7
- Elf - $25 million/$101 million

November 14
- Honey - $11 million/$29 million
- Looney Tunes: Back in Action - $25 million/$81 million
- Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World - $40 million/$160 million

November 21
- Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat - $72 million/$265 million
- Radio - $13 million/$45 million

November 26
- Bad Santa - $9 million/$31 million
- Big Fish - $14 million/$101 million
- The Haunted Mansion - $36 million/$125 million
- Timeline - $29 million/$87 million

December 3
- Highwaymen - $14 million/$39 million

December 5
- The Last Samurai - $31 million/$178 million

December 12
- Love Don't Cost a Thing - $16 million/$51 million
- Stuck on You - $28 million/$91 million
- Something's Gotta Give - $35 million/$130 million

December 17
- The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - $75 million/$375 million

December 19
- Mona Lisa Smile - $30 million/$140 million

December 25
- The Alamo - $18 million/$65 million
- Cheaper by the Dozen - $25 million/$100 million
- Cold Mountain - $18 million/$115 million
- Paycheck - $31 million/$105 million
- Peter Pan - $47 million/$195 million

[Frank the Tank]

September 5th
Dickie Roberts: FCS 10mil/33mil
The Order 8mil/20mil

September 12th
Cabin Fever 5mil/14mil
Cold Creek Manor 23mil/80mil
Matchstick Men 16mil/51mil
Once Upon A Time In Mexico 12mil/34mil

September 19th
Anything Else 6mil/18mil
The Fighting Temptations 13mil/36mil
Secondhand Lions 8mil/21mil
Underworld 27mil/88mil

September 26th
Duplex 20mil/66mil
The Rundown 24mil/75mil
Under The Tuscan Sun 6mil/17mil

October 3rd
Out Of Time 13mil/38mil
The School Of Rock 19mil/47mil

October 10th
Good Bye! 6mil/13mil
House Of The Dead 4mil/10mil
Intolerable Cruelty 17mil/63mil
Kill Bill: Volume 1 26mil/105mil

October 17th
Runaway Jury 15mil/42mil
Texas Chainsaw Massacre 23mil/78mil
Veronica Guerin 9mil/29mil

October 24th
Scary Movie 3 36mil/132mil
Beyond Borders 7mil/25mil
Gothika 18mil/93mil
In The Cut 7mil/23mil

November 1rst
Brother Bear 45mil/153mil

November 5th
The Matrix Revolutions 85mil/273mil

November 7th
Elf 30mil/115mil

November 14th
Honey 12mil/37mil
Looney Tunes: Back In Action 29mil/109mil
Master And Commander: TFSOTW 31mil/127mil

November 21rst
The Cat In The Hat 64mil/252mil
Radio 16mil/48mil

November 26th
Bad Santa 11mil/30mil
Big Fish 9mil/45mil
Timeline 10mil/39mil
Haunted Mansion 34mil/126mil

December 3rd
Highwaymen 8mil/24mil

December 5th
The Last Samurai 41mil/172mil

December 12th
Love Don't Cost A Thing 13mil/40mil
Stuck On You 27mil/121mil
Something's Gotta Give 10mil/34mil

December 17th
LOTR: Return Of The King 74mil/342mil

December 19th
Mona Lisa Smile 22mil/144mil

December 25th
The Alamo 19mil/93mil
Cheaper By The Dozen 26mil/85mil
Cold Mountain 14mil/100mil
Paycheck 32mil/125mil
Peter Pan 12mil/53mil It won't be huge remember Pinnochio

[thompsoncory]

Some of my predictions may seem a little off, but I have reasoning behind them.

MATCHSTICK MEN - I have a feeling that this is gonna surprise. It looks a lot like OCEAN'S ELEVEN, which was a huge hit. It has Nicolas Cage and up-and-coming star Sam Rockwell. It's directed by Ridley Scott. And finally, the new trailer for THE MATRIX REVOLUTIONS will be supposedly attached, which will send fanboys of that film to see it. I am sticking by my high prediction here.

DUPLEX - If this gets the coveted PG-13 rating, which I think it will, it will probably have a great box office take. The trailer is hilarious, it has Drew Barrymore and Ben Stiller (both bankable comic actors) and if Miramax markets it right, it could have the potential to surprise.

INTOLERABLE CRUELTY - I have no doubt in my mind that this is gonna be a huge hit. Catherine Zeta-Jones is at the peak of her popularity right now and George Clooney is typically very bankable. Plus the trailer looks very appealing and it is produced by hitmaker Brian Grazer.

RUNAWAY JURY - This one I am not too sure about. It has a very good cast, and if word of mouth is good, it could make a load of cash. But only if that happens.

THE TEXAS CHAINSAW MASSACRE - I have never seen an audience react to a trailer like this one had. It looks absolutely fantastic, and will become this year's SCREAM. Everyone I know wants to see it, it is produced by Michael Bay and is opening around Halloween. Not to mention it is based on one of the most popular horror films of all time. All of that will make this a huge hit.

ELF - Not much to say about this one. If it has good word of mouth, it could become this year's SANTA CLAUSE 2.

SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE - OK, this might not seem like a hit in the making right now, but with a cast to die for (Nicholson, Keaton, Reeves, Peet) and from the director of WHAT WOMEN WANT, this could probably turn into this year's surprise hit romance.

CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN - Steve Martin is just coming off of the biggest hit of his career, Bonnie Hunt is in a hit TV show, Hilary Duff is the new teen queen, and Ashton Kutcher is everywhere in the news. Not to mention this looks in the same vein as DADDY DAY CARE, which was a huge hit. This will face competition from PETER PAN, but will still be very profitable.

PETER PAN - This will be a hit, no matter what ANYONE says. It has a great trailer, and PETER PAN movies always do well.

[Memphismom]

Big Fish will be bigger than anyone thinks...Think Titantic There is
someone and something in this for everyone... http://imdb.com/Title?0319061

Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star For some reason I want this to be good.

Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat - HUGH - from set reports

Bad Santa - Either real good or real bad...

The Haunted Mansion- they better hope it goes big. Doesn't look good to me. Sorry Love Jennifer Tilly, Eddie is ok too, but this plot looks weak. Anyway if anyone can make this work it is Eddie and Disney.

Cheaper by the Dozen - Have a good feeling about this. They had casting for a LONG LONG time. Hope it doesn't look like a movie of the week.

Mona Lisa Smile - OH MY MY Look at that cast. Looks like another "Big Fish" for Sony/Columbia.

21 Grams: Dark, will find it's audience for sure.

Peter Pan - Yes I said Peter Pan.

My picks for the year: Big Fish and YOUNG ADAM!!!! Then I hope Mona Lisa Smile. Boy looks like Sony and Mr. Ewan will makes some money this year!!!

Leslie

[Frank the Tank]

Bad Santa is going to get it's ass kicked by Elf.

[Memphismom]

Hehehe that was funny. "Bad Santa is going to get it's ass kicked by Elf." I agree

OH NO I forgot: Open Range Looks like we will have some movie this year after all.
Leslie

[Martin Jeeves]

I believe "Duplex" is opening on October 3rd NOT September 26th.

I think "Under The Tuscan Sun" will do significantly better than those figures. Many insiders think it could do $100 million!

[dh1989]

September 5
- Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star - $16 million/$39 million
- The Order - $6 million/$21 million

September 12
- Cabin Fever - $3 million/$7.5 million
- Cold Creek Manor - $13 million/$46 million
- Matchstick Men - $12 million/$53 million
- Once Upon a Time in Mexico - $21 million/$67 million

September 19
- Anything Else - $6 million/$12 million
- The Fighting Temptations - $8 million/$29 million
- Secondhand Lions - $3 million/$49 million
- Underworld - $16 million/$67 million

September 26
- Duplex - $14 million/$81 million
- The Rundown - $22 million/$71 million
- Under the Tuscan Sun - $23 million/$106 million

October 3
- Out of Time - $7 million/$28 million
- The School of Rock - $34 million/$145 million

October 10
- Good Boy! - $14 million/$57 million (I think Schmoes are underestimating this since *they* don't want to see it, but most Schmoes are around 17, and this is a kid's flick)
- House of the Dead - $7 million/$11 million
- Intolerable Cruelty - $21 million/$102 million
- Kill Bill: Volume 1 - $6 million/$13 million

October 17
- Runaway Jury - $24 million/$94 million
- The Texas Chainsaw Massacre - $12 million/$37 million
- Veronica Guerin - $10 million/$28 million

October 24
- Beyond Borders - $12 million/$25 million
- Gothika - $25 million/$55 million
- In The Cut - $5 million/$13 million
- Scary Movie 3 - $25 million/$103 million

November 1
- Brother Bear - $21 million/$98 million

November 5
- The Matrix Revolutions - $82 million/$262 million

November 7
- Elf - $5 million/$14 million

November 14
- Honey - $11 million/$29 million
- Looney Tunes: Back in Action - $34 million/$98 million
- Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World - $68 million/$234 million

November 21
- Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat - $35 million/$134 million
- Radio - $6 million/$23 million

November 26
- Bad Santa - $2 million/$8 million
- Big Fish - $54 million/$143 million
- The Haunted Mansion - $67 million/$234 million
- Timeline - $19 million/$98 million

December 3
- Highwaymen - $14 million/$33 million

December 5
- The Last Samurai - $36 million/$86 million

December 12
- Love Don't Cost a Thing - N/A
Stuck on You - $23 million/$87 million
- Something's Gotta Give - $16 million/$73 million

December 17
- The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - $88 million/$335 million

December 19
- Mona Lisa Smile - $36 million/$146 million

December 25
- The Alamo - $18 million/$69 million
- Cheaper by the Dozen - $34 million/$132 million
- Cold Mountain - $18 million/$119 million
- Paycheck - $28 million/$108 million
- Peter Pan - $21 million/$146 million

[Frank the Tank]

Great list dh, but every horror movie except House of the Dead will make more than you listed. Also Elf should be the big Christmas hit this year, like Santa Clause 2, and The Grinch. Kill Bill could go either way infact I think I overrated the gross a little.

[thompsoncory]

I don't think that UNDER THE TUSCAN SUN and SCHOOL OF ROCK will make that much and KILL BILL, TEXAS CHAINSAW MASSACRE and ELF will make that little, but other than that, I pretty much agree with you, dh.

[Nate6]

I don't know, I think The Alamo may do better than many of you are thinking. If the R-rated, Scorsese-directed, long GONY could make nearly $80 million over a packed Christmas season, I think The Alamo could do better...

[Martin Jeeves]

I don't think that UNDER THE TUSCAN SUN and SCHOOL OF ROCK will make that much and KILL BILL, TEXAS CHAINSAW MASSACRE and ELF will make that little, but other than that, I pretty much agree with you, dh.

I think "UNDER THE TUSCAN SUN" could be interesting. The book is very popular and apparently the director has "juiced it up". Early buzz on the film is very good, and Touchstone Pictures are great at marketing so called "romantic comedies" (i.e. Sweet Home Alabama", "Pretty Woman", etc etc). They seem to be able to get hits out of these types of films. Having said that - I think this film would definately crack $100 million if it starred Julia Roberts - but it doesn't - it stars the obscure and unbankable Diane Lane (Oscar nominee for "Unfaithful"). That could be the problem... as good as Lane is at acting... she's about as famous as I am! I think it might be a surprise hit and gross $100 million BUT it will need really good reviews AND effective marketing aimed at the older female demographic.

[Nate6]

Originally posted by Martin Jeeves
That could be the problem... as good as Lane is at acting... she's about as famous as I am!

Well that shouldn't be a problem, you're pretty damn famous!

Wait, you are Tom Cruise, aren't you?

[Martin Jeeves]

Well that shouldn't be a problem, you're pretty damn famous!

No, unfortunately, I'm not Tom Cruise. I certainly don't have his money!

Seriously, if "Under The Tuscan Sun" is as good as I hear it is, I hope it doesn't fail just because it didn't have a big enough name (Diane Lane) in the lead. A good film is a good film, regardless of who is in it. I've heard that "Duplex" is a very troubled pic and has had more release date changes than any release this (and last) year. Should be interesting though - two comedies on the exact same weekend!

[AgentSmith]

September 5
- Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star - $18 million/$42 million
- The Order - $8 million/$23 million

September 12
- Cabin Fever - $2 million/$7.3 million
- Cold Creek Manor - $13 million/$46 million
- Matchstick Men - $23 million/$76 million
- Once Upon a Time in Mexico - $27 million/$77 million

September 19
- Anything Else - $6 million/$12 million
- The Fighting Temptations - $8 million/$29 million
- Secondhand Lions - $3 million/$49 million
- Underworld - $20 million/$75 million

September 26
- Duplex - $14 million/$81 million
- The Rundown - $21 million/$65 million
- Under the Tuscan Sun - $28 million/$99 million

October 3
- Out of Time - $7 million/$28 million
- The School of Rock - $40 million/$145 million <------ Jack Black = HAHAHA!!! :D

October 10
- Good Boy! - $13 million/$47 million
- House of the Dead - $7 million/$11 million
- Intolerable Cruelty - $21 million/$102 million
- Kill Bill: Volume 1 - $4 million/$25 million

October 17
- Runaway Jury - $28 million/$94 million
- The Texas Chainsaw Massacre - $15 million/$45 million
- Veronica Guerin - $10 million/$28 million

October 24
- Beyond Borders - $12 million/$25 million
- Gothika - $20 million/$45 million
- In The Cut - $5 million/$13 million
- Scary Movie 3 - $36 million/$103 million <----- This will revive the series!

November 1
- Brother Bear - $25 million/$98 million

November 5
- The Matrix Revolutions - $115 million/$259 million

November 7
- Elf - $5 million/$14 million

November 14
- Honey - $11 million/$29 million
- Looney Tunes: Back in Action - $40 million/$98 million
- Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World - $80 million/$250 million <---- I am stoked for this film... Looks very exciting!

November 21
- Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat - $80 million/$234 million <---- It will perform like Grinch
- Radio - $6 million/$23 million

November 26
- Bad Santa - $2 million/$8 million
- Big Fish - $54 million/$143 million
- The Haunted Mansion - $50 million/$220 million
- Timeline - $15 million/$102 million

December 3
- Highwaymen - $12 million/$37 million

December 5
- The Last Samurai - $45 million/$124 million

December 12
- Love Don't Cost a Thing - N/A
Stuck on You - $23 million/$87 million
- Something's Gotta Give - $13 million/$73 million

December 17
- The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - $95 million/$335 million

December 19
- Mona Lisa Smile - $36 million/$146 million

December 25
- The Alamo - $18 million/$69 million
- Cheaper by the Dozen - $30 million/$120 million
- Cold Mountain - $19 million/$109 million
- Paycheck - $24 million/$98 million
- Peter Pan - $41 million/$168 million

[RickySlade]

There is no chance in hell that School of Rock will make ANYTHING past 70 mil.

[thompsoncory]

BUMP

[The1TrueFrog]

September 5
- Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star - $4 million/$25 million
- The Order - $5 million/$30 million

September 12
- Cabin Fever - $5 million/$38 million
- Cold Creek Manor - $10 million/$47 million
- Matchstick Men - $3 million/$12 million
- Once Upon a Time in Mexico - $30 million/$95 million

September 19
- Anything Else - $3.5 million/$14 million
- The Fighting Temptations - $5 million/$37 million
- Secondhand Lions - ?
- Underworld - $11 million/$70 million

September 26
- Duplex - $12 million/$75 million
- The Rundown - ?
- Under the Tuscan Sun - $4 million/$28 million

October 3
- Out of Time - $9 million/$45 million
- The School of Rock - $5 million/$35 million

October 10
- Good Boy! - $2.5 million/$19 million
- House of the Dead - $7 million/$45 million
- Intolerable Cruelty - $5 million/$40 million
- Kill Bill: Volume 1 - $6 million/$43 million

October 17
- Runaway Jury - $10 million/$70 million
- The Texas Chainsaw Massacre - $25 million/$130 million
- Veronica Guerin - ?

October 24
- Beyond Borders - $7 million/$50 million
- Gothika - $5 million/$40 million
- In The Cut - $2 million/$20 million
- Scary Movie 3 - $25 million/$100 million

November 1
- Brother Bear - $25 million/$110 million

November 5
- The Matrix Revolutions - $80 million/$230 million

November 7
- Elf - $3 million/$20 million

November 14
- Honey - $5 million/$40 million
- Looney Tunes: Back in Action - $50 million/$180 million
- Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World - $40 million/$160 million

November 21
- Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat - $60 million/$200 million
- Radio - $5 million/$30 million

November 26
- Bad Santa - $10 million/$65 million
- Big Fish - $10 million/$60 million
- The Haunted Mansion - $45 million/$150 million
- Timeline - $8 million/$47 million

December 3
- Highwaymen - $23 million/$55 million

December 5
- The Last Samurai - $48 million/$135 million

December 12
- Love Don't Cost a Thing - ?
Stuck on You - ?
- Something's Gotta Give - $8 million/$40 million

December 17
- The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - $80 million/$320 million

December 19
- Mona Lisa Smile - $38 million/$128 million

December 25
- The Alamo - $40 million/$122 million
- Cheaper by the Dozen - $6 million/$40 million
- Cold Mountain - $8 million/$44 million
- Paycheck - $37 million/$95 million
- Peter Pan - $60 million/$190 million

:) This was fun ... don't know that much about a few of the entries, though.

[thompsoncory]

No offense 1True Fog, but if your predictions for most of the films are true, then we are looking at some INCREDIBLE staying power with the films this fall.

[The1TrueFrog]

looking at box office numbers, I kinda noticed this trend where most movies end about 4 times their opening weekend, or 5 if they have the staying power.. only the major flops or the limited releases make under, say, 30 million.. 40-50 being average, and 70+ being hits.. and some of the movies here I wasn't quite sure I heard of, so I left some blank ... hmmm... will be interesting to see how this all turns out..

Originally posted by thompsoncory
No offense 1True Fog, but if your predictions for most of the films are true, then we are looking at some INCREDIBLE staying power with the films this fall.

[Freeway]

Sept. 5:
Dickie Roberts:FCS - 9 mil./30 mil.
The Order - 8 mil./24 mil.

Sept. 12:
Cabin Fever - 5 mil./11 mil.
Cold Creek Manor - 17 mil./70 mil.
Matchstick Men - 14 mil./60 mil.
Once Upon a Time in Mexico - 15 mil./50 mil.

Sept. 19:
Anything Else - 10 mil/42 mil.
The Fighting Temptations - 9 mil./35 mil.
Secondhand Lions - 8 mil./30 mil.
Underworld - 18 mil./60 mil.

Sept. 26:
Duplex - 10 mil./40 mil.
The Rundown - 22 mil./80 mil.
Under the Tuscan Sun - 10 mil./45 mil.

Oct. 3:
Out of Time - 15 mil/55 mil.
School of Rock - 14 mil./38 mil.

Oct. 10:
Good Boy! - 16 mil./70 mil.
House of the Dead - 7 mil./15 mil.
Intolerable Cruelty - 17 mil./75 mil.
Kill Bill Vol. One - 16 mil./60 mil.

Oct. 15:
Mystic River - 18 mil./100 mil. (This will have great holds)

Oct. 17:
Runaway Jury - 19 mil./75 mil.
Texas Chainsaw Massacre - 25 mil./100 mil. (I just have an inkling that this will do great)
Veronica Guerin - 9 mil./34 mil.

Oct. 24:
Beyond Borders - 10 mil./41 mil.
Gothika - 15 mil./45 mil.
In the Cut - 9 mil./32 mil.
Scary Movie 3 - 18 mil./60 mil.

Nov. 1:
Brother Bear - 13 mil./50 mil.

Nov. 5:
Matrix: Revolutions - 113 mil./300 mil.

Nov. 7:
Elf - 14 mil./50 mil.

Nov. 14:
Honey - 8 mil./25 mil.
Looney Tunes: BIA - 20 mil./100 mil.
Master and Commander - 17 mil./70 mil.

Nov. 21:
The Cat in the Hat - 45 mil./120 mil.
Radio - 15 mil./60 mil.

Nov. 26:
Bad Santa - 10 mil./35 mil.
Big Fish - 15 mil./72 mil.
The Haunted Mansion - 26 mil./140 mil.
Timeline - 23 mil./ 90 mil.

The rest I'll do later on.

[XCoRyX]

I'm only doing opening weekend predictions....

September 5
- Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star - $9.4 Million
- The Order - $11.3 Million

September 12
- Cabin Fever - $6.2 Million
- Cold Creek Manor - $26 Million
- Matchstick Men - $12 Million
- Once Upon a Time in Mexico - $13.6 Million

September 19
- Anything Else - Dont know of this flick....
- The Fighting Temptations - $13 Million
- Secondhand Lions - $8 million
- Underworld - $23 million

September 26
- Duplex - $19 million
- The Rundown - $21.5 million
- Under the Tuscan Sun - Dont know of this...

October 3
- Out of Time - Dont know of this...
- The School of Rock - $13 Million

October 10
- Good Boy! - $7 Million
- House of the Dead - $5.4 Million
- Intolerable Cruelty - $15 Million
- Kill Bill: Volume 1 - $21 million

October 17
- Runaway Jury - $19 million
- The Texas Chainsaw Massacre - $24 Million (just for halloween)
- Veronica Guerin - All depends on how wide of a release this gets...

October 24
- Beyond Borders - ???
- Gothika - $18 Million
- In The Cut - ????
- Scary Movie 3 - $20 Million

November 1
- Brother Bear - ????

November 5
- The Matrix Revolutions - $94 Million

November 7
- Elf - $18.3 Million

November 14
- Honey - ???
- Looney Tunes: Back in Action - $26 Million
- Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World - $29 Million

November 21
- Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat - $68 Million
- Radio - ???

November 26
- Bad Santa - $13 Million
- Big Fish -
- The Haunted Mansion - $24 Million
- Timeline - $22 Million

December 3
- Highwaymen - $7 Million

December 5
- The Last Samurai - $33 Million

December 12
- Love Don't Cost a Thing - ???
- Stuck on You - ???
- Something's Gotta Give - ???

December 17
- The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - $79 Million

December 19
- Mona Lisa Smile - ????

December 25
- The Alamo - ????
- Cheaper by the Dozen - ????
- Cold Mountain - ????
- Paycheck - $24 Million
- Peter Pan - $36 Million

[BillBelichickFn]

Here are my thoughts on random ones...

Return of the King - DUH! $400m

Intolerable Cruelty - Like Soderbergh's "Erin Brockovich", will be the first "mainstream" Coen brothers movie. $100m

Runaway Jury - Looks like Grisham adaptations are back in top form. LOVE that cast! $120m

Scary Movie 3 - Doesn't matter how good this one is. The fact that alot of people hated the last one, they're going to think twice about this one. $50m

Matchstick Men - Not mainstream enough, unfortunately. $20m

The Last Samurai - Cruise will FINALLY get his FIRST Oscar! $150m

Mona Lisa Smile - Especially given the fact that Julia Roberts hasn't had a starring role in a "mainstream" movie in almost 3 years, "mainstream" audiences are going to flock to this bay-bee in a heartbeat. $150m

Cat in the Hat - The kids are going to flock to this one regardless. $200m

Haunted Mansion - In terms of years, Eddie Murphy is hit or miss. Looks like he's rebounding nicely from a disasterous '02. $150m

Matrix: Revolutions - No comment. $235m

Underworld - Looks cool. $70m

The Rundown - Could be the surprise hit of the Fall season, much like how "Sweet Home Alabama" was last year at this time. $100m

[RickySlade]

Originally posted by BillBelichickFn

Matchstick Men - Not mainstream enough, unfortunately. $20m

How is Nicolas Cage, Sam Rockwell and Ridley Scott NOT mainstream?

[Frank the Tank]

I read the plot for Big Fish and I will change my predictions for it.

Before

Opening- 9mil
Closing- 45mil

After

Opening- 17mil
Closing- 69mil

I will change Kill Bill too after I just realized Tarantino isn't that big with the public.

Opening- 12mil
Closing- 43mil

[CyclicNightmare]

September 5
- Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star - $8.5 million/$24 million
- The Order - $12.6 million/$42 million

September 12
- Cabin Fever - $11 million/$43 million
- Cold Creek Manor - $21 million/$56 million
- Matchstick Men - $27 million/$107 million
- Once Upon a Time in Mexico - $22 million/$87 million

September 19
- Anything Else - $6 million/$24 million
- The Fighting Temptations - $13 million/$37 million
- Secondhand Lions - $18 million/$94 million
- Underworld - $21 million/$79 million

September 26
- Duplex - $21 million/$78 million
- The Rundown - $18 million/$68 million
- Under the Tuscan Sun - $9 million/$45 million

October 3
- Out of Time - $21 million/$89 million
- The School of Rock - $15 million/$43 million

October 10
- Good Boy! - $5 million/$15 million
- House of the Dead - $10 million/$27 million
- Intolerable Cruelty - $28 million/$125 million
- Kill Bill: Volume 1 - $16 million/$78 million

October 17
- Runaway Jury - $17 million/$85 million
- The Texas Chainsaw Massacre - $29 million/$77 million
- Veronica Guerin - $12 million/$51 million

October 24
- Beyond Borders - $12 million/$35 million
- Gothika - $17 million/$130 million
- In The Cut - $11 million/$39 million
- Scary Movie 3 - $25 million/$120 million

November 1
- Brother Bear - $40 million/$200 million

November 5
- The Matrix Revolutions - $87 million/$295 million

November 7
- Elf - $22 million/$68 million

November 14
- Honey - $7 million/$22 million
- Looney Tunes: Back in Action - $31 million/$111 million
- Master and Commander - $42 million/$173 million

November 21
- Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat - $48 million/$184 million
- Radio - $16 million/$97 million

November 26
- Bad Santa - $8 million/$38 million
- Big Fish - $7 million/$28 million
- The Haunted Mansion - $33 million/$107 million
- Timeline - $26 million/$121 million

December 3
- Highwaymen - $14 million/$35 million

December 5
- The Last Samurai - $38 million/$165 million

December 12
- Love Don't Cost a Thing - $11 million/$41 million
- Stuck on You - $31 million/$134 million
- Something's Gotta Give - $30 million/$136 million

December 17
- The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - $79 million/$407 million

December 19
- Mona Lisa Smile - $30 million/$121 million

December 25
- The Alamo - $18 million/$89 million
- Cheaper by the Dozen - $23 million/$109 million
- Cold Mountain - $20 million/$124 million
- Paycheck - $22 million/$132 million
- Peter Pan - $25 million/$142 million


WOOOO HOOOOO!! I'm now a senior!

I feel older.

[kris1985]

September 5
- Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star - $8 million/$23 million
- The Order - $11 million/$46 million

September 12
- Cabin Fever - $5 million/$14 million
- Cold Creek Manor - $11 million/$52 million
- Matchstick Men - $13 million/$65 million
- Once Upon a Time in Mexico - $13 million/$50 million

September 19
- Anything Else - $4 million/$11 million
- The Fighting Temptations - $9 million/$36 million
- Secondhand Lions - $8 million/$23 million
- Underworld - $19 million/$79 million

September 26
- Duplex - $10 million/$40 million
- The Rundown - $25 million/$100 million
- Under the Tuscan Sun - $6 million/$23 million

October 3
- Out of Time - $13 million/$50 million
- The School of Rock - $12 million/$45 million

October 10
- Good Boy! - $5 million/$20 million
- House of the Dead - $3 million/$10 million
- Intolerable Cruelty - $12 million/$59 million
- Kill Bill: Volume 1 - $23 million/$92 million

October 17
- Runaway Jury - $14 million/$75 million
- The Texas Chainsaw Massacre - $16 million/$78 million
- Veronica Guerin - ?

October 24
- Beyond Borders - $9 million/$30 million
- Gothika - $20 million/$70 million
- In The Cut - ?? Scary Movie 3 - $26 million/$110 million

November 1
- Brother Bear - $10 million/$55 million

November 5
- The Matrix Revolutions - $90 million/$295 million

November 7
- Elf - $10 million/$53 million

November 14
- Honey - $6 million/$24 million
- Looney Tunes: Back in Action - $22 million/$85 million
- Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World - $39 million/$180 million

November 21
- Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat - $68 million/$250 million
- Radio - ?

November 26
- Bad Santa - 7 million/$27 million
- Big Fish - $8 million/$23 million
- The Haunted Mansion - $18 million/$75 million
- Timeline - $18 million/$85 million

December 3
- Highwaymen - $13 million/$40 million

December 5
- The Last Samurai - $39 million/$175 million

December 12
- Love Don't Cost a Thing - ?
- Stuck on You - $24 million/$86 million
- Something's Gotta Give - $13 million/$65 million

December 17
- The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - $95 million/$400 million

December 19
- Mona Lisa Smile - $20 million/$115 million

December 25
- The Alamo - $15 million/$60 million
- Cheaper by the Dozen - $20 million/$75 million
- Cold Mountain - $20 million/$110 million
- Paycheck - $16 million/$70 million (um...ben affleck is in it)
- Peter Pan - $37 million/$115 million

[SpaceMutt07]

Originally posted by thompsoncory THE TEXAS CHAINSAW MASSACRE - I have never seen an audience react to a trailer like this one had.[/B]

No kidding! They showed this when I saw FvJ, and the audience flipped.

[Mike]

Originally posted by RickySlade
How is Nicolas Cage, Sam Rockwell and Ridley Scott NOT mainstream?

The movie itself isn't that mainstream. It's not exactly non-mainstream, but it's just not too appealing to the masses. The trailer gets no reaction whatsoever when I've seen it in theaters. I was the only one that seemed to really enjoy the trailer when I saw it in front of T3. I think the movie looks very good, but unfortunately, I don't see it being a big hit. I think they are making a mistake by releasing it wide right away. I think they should have rolled it out a little more slowly, starting in under AT LEAST 1,000 theaters, absolutely no more. A start in around 40 theaters, then the following weekend 150, then 300, then 800, then 1,500 or so, and finally 2,000+ theaters would have been better. This is one that will need time for the word of mouth to work its magic and get more mainstream audiences out to see it. But going wide right away will just make it lose theaters sooner, not giving it enough time to get enough positive buzz out. It's really too bad, because the movie looks very very good.

[paul]

Duplex 17/89

[idealdiscountdude]

Ideal's Predix:

September 12
- Cabin Fever - $ 8 million/$ 25 million
- Matchstick Men - $12 million/$ 55 million
- Once Upon a Time in Mexico - $19 million/$48 million

September 19
- Anything Else - $1 million/$ 7 million
- Cold Creek Manor - $ 23 million/ $ 85 million
- The Fighting Temptations - $17 million/$ 60 million
- Secondhand Lions - $ 4 million/$ 18 million
- Underworld - $ 16 million/$ 37 million

September 26
- Duplex - $ 26 million/$ 88 million
- The Rundown - $ 16 million/$ 40 million
- Under the Tuscan Sun - $ 12 million/$ 45 million

October 3
- Out of Time - $ 20 million/$ 61 million
- The School of Rock - $15 million/$42 million

October 10
- Good Boy! - $ 3 million/$ 7 million
- House of the Dead - $ 2 million/$ 4 million
- Intolerable Cruelty - $ 24 million/$ 105 million
- Kill Bill: Volume 1 - $ 27 million/$85 million

October 17
- Runaway Jury - $ 19 million/$ 70 million
- The Texas Chainsaw Massacre - $ 24 million/$ 59 million
- Veronica Guerin - $ 5 million/$ 12 million

October 24
- Beyond Borders - $ 7 million/$ 21 million
- Gothika - $ 25 million/$ 80 million
- In The Cut - $ 3 million/$ 14 million
- Scary Movie 3 - $ 37 million/$ 95 million

November 1
- Brother Bear - $ 28 million/$130 million

November 5
- The Matrix Revolutions - $ 96 million/$ 285 million

November 7
- Elf - $ 18 million/$ 65 million

November 14
- Honey - $ 8 million/$ 29 million
- Looney Tunes: Back in Action - $ 21 million/$ 73 million
- Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World - $40 million/$160 million

November 21
- Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat - $72 million/$265 million
- Radio - $16 million/$ 61 million

November 26
- Bad Santa - $ 5 million/$ 12 million
- The Haunted Mansion - $ 26 million/$ 90 million
- Timeline - $ 21 million/ $75 million

December 3
- Highwaymen - $ 6 million/$ 16 million

December 5
- The Last Samurai - $ 36 million/$145 million

December 12
- Love Don't Cost a Thing - $ 13 million/$51 million
- Stuck on You - $ 32 million/$ 131 million
- Something's Gotta Give - $ 22 million/$138 million

December 17
- The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - $75 million/$405 million

December 19
- Mona Lisa Smile - $ 26 million/$ 146 million

December 25
- The Alamo - $18 million/$65 million
- Cheaper by the Dozen - $25 million/$ 125 million
- Cold Mountain - $ 12 million/$ 90 million

[Damned Martian]

September 5
- Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star - $17 million/$36 million
- The Order - $7.5 million/$25 million

September 12
- Cabin Fever - $2 million/$9 million
- Cold Creek Manor - $11.5 million/$42 million
- Matchstick Men - $31 million/$89 million
- Once Upon a Time in Mexico - $23 million/$58 million

September 19
- Anything Else - $5 million/$17 million
- The Fighting Temptations - $8 million/$28 million
- Secondhand Lions - $6 million/$59 million
- Underworld - $17 million/$59 million

September 26
- Duplex - $22 million/$102 million
- The Rundown - $16 million/$51 million
- Under the Tuscan Sun - $11 million/$58 million

October 3
- Out of Time - $7 million/$33 million
- The School of Rock - $14 million/$50 million

October 10
- Good Boy! - $6 million/$32 million
- House of the Dead - $3 million/$9.5 million
- Intolerable Cruelty - $21 million/$93 million
- Kill Bill: Volume 1 - $25 million/$87 million

October 17
- Runaway Jury - $28 million/$95 million
- The Texas Chainsaw Massacre - $9 million/$32 million
- Veronica Guerin - $10 million/$38 million

October 24
- Beyond Borders - $7 million/$21 million
- Gothika - $21 million/$57 million
- In The Cut - $5.5 million/$18 million
- Scary Movie 3 - $32 million/$100 million

November 1
- Brother Bear - $17 million/$65 million

November 5
- The Matrix Revolutions - $87 million/$235 million

November 7
- Elf - $5 million/$18 million

November 14
- Honey - $7 million/$20 million
- Looney Tunes: Back in Action - $19 million/$75 million
- Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World - $40 million/$150 million

November 21
- Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat - $50 million/$134 million
- Radio - $6 million/$22 million

November 26
- Bad Santa - $4.5 million/$18 million
- Big Fish - $33 million/$118 million
- The Haunted Mansion - $52 million/$192 million
- Timeline - $13 million/$87 million

December 3
- Highwaymen - $10 million/$37 million

December 5
- The Last Samurai - $29 million/$84 million

December 12
- Love Don't Cost a Thing - $5 million /$19 million
- Stuck on You - $21 million/$70 million
- Something's Gotta Give - $18 million/$72 million

December 17
- The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - $95 million/$350 million

December 19
- Mona Lisa Smile - $26 million/$93 million

December 25
- The Alamo - $18 million/$70 million
- Cheaper by the Dozen - $32 million/$124 million
- Cold Mountain - $17 million/$66 million
- Paycheck - $29 million/$107 million
- Peter Pan - $18 million/$68 million

[Arlius]

I don't know, I think The Alamo may do better than many of you are thinking. If the R-rated, Scorsese-directed, long GONY could make nearly $80 million over a packed Christmas season, I think The Alamo could do better...

That's right. The previews I saw looked great. Looks like they might have infused a bit of humor into it to make it a bit lighter than the dark and violent GONY. Alamo will be more family friendly. Hovever, GONY made it's money over an extended run due to it's awards nominations. But right now I'll say Alamo stands to do better than GONY and will pass $100 mil.

Cold Mountain, on the other hand, will have the same problems or worse as GONY because it too will be a dark, violent, R-rated film lost in the holiday rush.

[Frank the Tank]

Bump

and let's see how everyone's predictions went so far.

I can't believe i thought Cold Creek Manor and Duplex were going to make that much.

[Andrew Tom]

Do you really think Matrix will make that much money? 70-75 mil would be my estimate for the opening weekend, no way it'll do 100 or more.

How much did Reloaded get opening weekend? I doubt this'll get as much as it did...

[Frank the Tank]

I think Reloaded got somewhere in the 90 million mark. You might be right with the 75 million opening prediction though, because I know alot of people that hated Reloaded.

[bob]

Is Brother Bear really opening on a Saturday? Seems like a pretty stupid move...

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by bob
Is Brother Bear really opening on a Saturday? Seems like a pretty stupid move...

They are doing this because the Friday is Halloween, and no kids will be in the theaters on that day. Should certainly help it's legs though.

[CyclicNightmare]

Bump it!

How we doing guys?

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by damned martian
- Once Upon a Time in Mexico - $23 million/$58 million

- The Fighting Temptations - $8 million/$28 million

- Underworld - $17 million/$59 million

- The Rundown - $16 million/$51 million

- House of the Dead - $3 million/$9.5 million

- Kill Bill: Volume 1 - $25 million/$87 million

The only aproximately accurate predictions of mine so far.... :o

[Martin Jeeves]

How many of you thought Diane Lane's acclaimed "Under The Tuscan Sun" would gross over $40 million from only 1226 theaters!?:)

[CyclicNightmare]

September 5
- Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star - $8.5 million/$24 million
--- (Actual: $6.7 million/$22 million) :)
- The Order - $12.6 million/$42 million
--- ($4.4 million/$7.7 million), AKA WHAT THE FUCK WAS I THINKING?

September 12
- Cabin Fever - $11 million/$43 million
--- ($8.6 million/$20 million) Eh.
- Matchstick Men - $27 million/$107 million
--- ($13 million/$36 million) WTF?
- Once Upon a Time in Mexico - $22 million/$87 million
--- ($23 million/$55 million) :)

September 19
- Anything Else - $6 million/$24 million
--- ($1.7 million/$3.2 million) I'm an idiot.
- The Fighting Temptations - $13 million/$37 million
--- ($11 million/$29 million) Not bad. :)
- Secondhand Lions - $18 million/$94 million
--- ($12 million/$39 million) I'd say waaaay off.
- Underworld - $21 million/$79 million
--- ($21 million/$50.9 million) :cool:
- Cold Creek Manor - $21 million/$56 million
--- ($8 million/$20 million) WTF?

September 26
- Duplex - $21 million/$78 million
--- ($4.6 million/$9.5 million) *Takes another bong hit*
- The Rundown - $18 million/$68 million
--- ($18 million/$46 million) :cool:
- Under the Tuscan Sun - $9 million/$45 million
--- ($9 million/$37 million) :cool:

October 3
- Out of Time - $21 million/$89 million
--- ($16 million/$38 million) Bad, ain't it?
- The School of Rock - $15 million/$43 million
--- ($19 million/$64 million) :(

October 10
- Good Boy! - $5 million/$15 million
--- ($13 million/$32 million) Soooo bad.
- House of the Dead - $10 million/$27 million
--- ($5.7 million/$9.8 million) Multiply by two. Not so bad then, huh?
- Intolerable Cruelty - $28 million/$125 million
--- ($12 million/$25 million) WTF?
- Kill Bill: Volume 1 - $16 million/$78 million
--- ($22 million/$55 million) So so.

October 17
- Runaway Jury - $17 million/$85 million
--- ($11 million/$26 million) No chance.
- The Texas Chainsaw Massacre - $29 million/$77 million
--- ($28 million/$54 million) :)
- Veronica Guerin - $12 million/$51 million
--- ($.6 million/$1.3 million) Clearly I don't pay attention to theatre counts.

October 24
- Beyond Borders - $12 million/$35 million
--- ($2 million/$2.6 million) *Hangs head shamefully*
- Scary Movie 3 - $25 million/$120 million
--- ($48 million/$54 million) Who coulda guessed?
- Radio - $16 million/$97 million
--- ($13 million/$15 million) No way.

I'm no psychic. Well... you can see that.

[Martin Jeeves]

I'm no psychic. Well... you can see that.

Don't beat yourself up man. It ain't easy. ;)

[thompsoncory]

Here are some of my updated predictions for the upcoming releases:

November 5th:
THE MATRIX REVOLUTIONS - $93 million/$301 million

November 7th:
ELF - $29 million/$125 million
LOVE ACTUALLY - $4 million/$75 million (opens in limited first)

November 14th:
LOONEY TUNES: BACK IN ACTION - $28 million/$87 million
MASTER & COMMANDER - $34 million/$150 million
TUPAC: RESURRECTION - $6 million/$15 million

November 21st:
THE MISSING - $12 million/$82 million
THE CAT IN THE HAT - $75 million/$285 million
GOTHIKA - $17 million/$65 million

November 26th:
BAD SANTA - $5 million/$18 million
THE HAUNTED MANSION - $49 million/$160 million
TIMELINE - $16 million/$41 million

December 5th:
THE LAST SAMURAI - $32 million/$131 million
HONEY - $11 million/$26 million

December 12th:
LOVE DON'T COST A THING - $18 million/$55 million
SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE - $36 million/$150 million
STUCK ON YOU - $28 million/$101 million

December 17th:
LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING - $73 million/$402 million

December 19th:
MONA LISA SMILE - $31 million/$140 million

December 25th:
CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN - $17 million/$72 million
COLD MOUNTAIN - $18 million/$101 million
PETER PAN - $28 million/$123 million
PAYCHECK - $21 million/$107 million

[Damned Martian]

Let's update mine too:

November 5th:
THE MATRIX REVOLUTIONS - $88 million/$272 million

November 7th:
ELF - $23 million/$75 million
LOVE ACTUALLY - $4 million/$85 million

November 14th:
LOONEY TUNES: BACK IN ACTION - $23 million/$82million
MASTER & COMMANDER - $39 million/$157 million
TUPAC: RESURRECTION - $2.5 million/$10 million

November 21st:
THE MISSING - $13 million/$42 million
THE CAT IN THE HAT - $42 million/$185 million
GOTHIKA - $18 million/$57 million

November 26th:
BAD SANTA - $3 million/$19 million
THE HAUNTED MANSION - $41 million/$131 million
TIMELINE - $15 million/$45 million

December 5th:
THE LAST SAMURAI - $28 million/$91 million
HONEY - $10 million/$24 million

December 12th:
LOVE DON'T COST A THING - $13 million/$39 million
SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE - $22 million/$90 million
STUCK ON YOU - $31 million/$105 million

December 17th:
LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING - $78 million/$355 million

December 19th:
MONA LISA SMILE - $18 million/$62 million

December 25th:
CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN - $20 million/$77 million
COLD MOUNTAIN - $15 million/$82 million
PETER PAN - $29 million/$96 million
PAYCHECK - $23 million/$92 million

[Jon Lyrik]

Matrix has no shot at $300 million. Reloaded gave a bad taste in a few people's mouths.

ROTK probably won't make $400 million either.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by damned martian
BAD SANTA - $3 million/$19 million

A 6+ multiplier. That would be HUGE for a film opening with such a measly number.

[Frank the Tank]

I'll do an update too.


November 5th
The Matrix Revolutions - 76mil/247mil

November 7th
Elf - 33mil/115mil
Love Actually - 4mil/39mil

November 14th
Looney Tunes: Back In Action - 29mil/73mil
Master And Commander: TFSOTW - 36mil/127mil
Tupac:Ressurection - 2mil/9mil

November 21rst
The Cat In The Hat - 64mil/219mil
Gothika - 10mil/34mil
The Missing - 12mil/48mil

November 26th
Bad Santa - 5mil/16mil
Timeline - 12mil/43mil
Haunted Mansion - 38mil/129mil

December 5th
The Last Samurai - 41mil/172mil
Honey - 8mil/22mil

December 12th
Love Don't Cost A Thing - 14mil/44mil
Stuck On You - 22mil/79mil
Something's Gotta Give - 24mil/108mil

December 17th
LOTR: Return Of The King - 76mil/342mil

December 19th
Mona Lisa Smile - 20mil/126mil

December 25th
Cheaper By The Dozen - 23mil/79mil
Cold Mountain - 18mil/100mil
Paycheck - 32mil/112mil
Peter Pan - 17mil/62mil

[CyclicNightmare]

Originally posted by Jon Lyrik
Matrix has no shot at $300 million. Reloaded gave a bad taste in a few people's mouths.

ROTK probably won't make $400 million either.
Originally posted by Jon Lyrik
A 6+ multiplier. That would be HUGE for a film opening with such a measly number.
Where are Jon Lyrik's predictions?

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by Jon Lyrik
A 6+ multiplier. That would be HUGE for a film opening with such a measly number. Remeber Lost in Translation? Yep, I thought so...

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by damned martian
Remeber Lost in Translation? Yep, I thought so...

Difference: This does not have the buzz of LIT.

BAD SANTA is a wide release. LIT is not.

[Jon Lyrik]

November 5th
The Matrix Revolutions - 77.1 (125.6 5-Day)/236.5

November 7th
Elf - 29/139.2
Love Actually - 4mil/39mil

November 14th
Looney Tunes: Back In Action-35/122.5
Master And Commander - 25/70
Tupac:Ressurection - 2.3/5

November 21st
The Cat In The Hat - 52.3/265
Gothika - 20/60
The Missing - 15/60

November 26th
Bad Santa - 11/33
Timeline - 17/50
Haunted Mansion - 40/160

December 5th
The Last Samurai - 48/164
Honey - 9/22.5

December 12th
Love Don't Cost A Thing - 10/30
Stuck On You-5/13
Something's Gotta Give - 15/45

December 17th
LOTR: Return Of The King - 78.3 (129.8 5-Day)/376.8

December 19th
Mona Lisa Smile - 25/100

December 25th
Cheaper By The Dozen - 12.5/50
Cold Mountain - 10.9/58.4
Paycheck - 20/70
Peter Pan - 52.5/183.8

[CyclicNightmare]

Originally posted by Jon Lyrik
December 12th
Stuck On You-5/13
There is no chance in hell that Stuck on You will do this poorly. Mark my words.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by CyclicNightmare
There is no chance in hell that Stuck on You will do this poorly. Mark my words.

It was a shot in the dark. Barely even heard of it before.

[CyclicNightmare]

Here are my updated predictions.

November 5
- The Matrix Revolutions - $77 million/$255 million

November 7
- Elf - $29 million/$87 million
- Love Actually - $4 million/$36 million

November 14
- Looney Tunes: Back in Action - $28 million/$92 million
- Master and Commander - $37 million/$152 million

November 21
- Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat - $45 million/$135 million
- Gothika - $17 million/$125 million
- The Missing - $14 million/$56 million

November 26
- Bad Santa - $6 million/$22 million
- The Haunted Mansion - $33 million/$107 million
- Timeline - $21 million/$87 million

December 3
- Highwaymen - $14 million/$35 million

December 5
- The Last Samurai - $38 million/$158 million
- Honey - $6 million/$19 million

December 12
- Love Don't Cost a Thing - $13 million/$37 million
- Stuck on You - $31 million/$134 million
- Something's Gotta Give - $25 million/$98 million

December 17
- The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - $79 million/$401 million

December 19
- Mona Lisa Smile - $26 million/$112 million

December 25
- Cheaper by the Dozen - $23 million/$109 million
- Cold Mountain - $20 million/$124 million
- Paycheck - $22 million/$132 million
- Peter Pan - $25 million/$142 million

EDIT: I changed the Love Actually prediction to account for the amount of theatres it is being released in. I also removed The Alamo prediction.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by CyclicNightmare
Here are my updated predictions.

November 5
- The Matrix Revolutions - $77 million/$255 million

November 7
- Elf - $29 million/$87 million
- Love Actually - $13 million/$52 million

November 14
- Looney Tunes: Back in Action - $28 million/$92 million
- Master and Commander - $37 million/$152 million

November 21
- Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat - $45 million/$135 million
- Gothika - $17 million/$125 million
- The Missing - $14 million/$56 million

November 26
- Bad Santa - $6 million/$22 million
- The Haunted Mansion - $33 million/$107 million
- Timeline - $21 million/$87 million

December 3
- Highwaymen - $14 million/$35 million

December 5
- The Last Samurai - $38 million/$158 million
- Honey - $6 million/$19 million

December 12
- Love Don't Cost a Thing - $13 million/$37 million
- Stuck on You - $31 million/$134 million
- Something's Gotta Give - $25 million/$98 million

December 17
- The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - $79 million/$401 million

December 19
- Mona Lisa Smile - $26 million/$112 million

December 25
- The Alamo - $24 million/$98 million
- Cheaper by the Dozen - $23 million/$109 million
- Cold Mountain - $20 million/$124 million
- Paycheck - $22 million/$132 million
- Peter Pan - $25 million/$142 million

The Alamo is being moved to April.

I think Cold Mountain will pull a Gangs of New York.

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by Jon Lyrik
Difference: This does not have the buzz of LIT.

BAD SANTA is a wide release. LIT is not. First, everything i've heard of this movie is good so far. Second, if we're talking about a wide release, then scratch my prediction and make it 7.5 / 25.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by damned martian
First, everything i've heard of this movie is good so far. Second, if we're talking about a wide release, then scratch my prediction and make it 7.5 / 25.

That's better. :D

It looks OK, but probably a bit too dark for the Thanksgiving crowd. Most blacker-contented films opening exactly on Thanksgiving don't sell too well.

[CyclicNightmare]

Originally posted by CyclicNightmare
Here are my updated predictions.

November 5
- The Matrix Revolutions - $77 million/$255 million

November 7
- Elf - $29 million/$87 million

November 14
- Looney Tunes: Back in Action - $28 million/$92 million
- Master and Commander - $37 million/$152 million

November 21
- Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat - $45 million/$135 million
- Gothika - $17 million/$125 million

WRONG - vast overestimate, Revolutions will barely hit $150 million, if it's lucky. (0 for 1)

WRONG - vast underestimate, Elf looks to almost double my predicted final gross. (0 for 2)

WRONG - Boooooooooooy was I WRONG. (0 for 3)

WRONG - while I did overestimate its debut, with decent legs it has a small chance of achieving my final. (still, 0 for 4)

NOT BAD - my $45 million is a tad high. But with some bad word of mouth, a $135 million total is not out of the question. (1 for 5)

CLOSE - but only on the opening. With so many negative reviews, I don't see how it will possibly pass $90 million, let alone $125. (1 for 6)

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by damned martian
Let's update mine too:

November 5th:
THE MATRIX REVOLUTIONS - $88 million/$272 million

November 7th:
ELF - $23 million/$75 million
LOVE ACTUALLY - $4 million/$85 million

November 14th:
LOONEY TUNES: BACK IN ACTION - $23 million/$82million
MASTER & COMMANDER - $39 million/$157 million
TUPAC: RESURRECTION - $2.5 million/$10 million

November 21st:
THE CAT IN THE HAT - $42 million/$185 million
GOTHIKA - $18 million/$57 million


Revolutions - Overestimated, although my prediction is what it should have done according to its quality.

Elf - Underestimated. Who could have thought? Anyway, I made my prediction a bit blindly, because i haven't seen any clip of the film.

Love Actually - Underestimated opening, but probably accurate in the long run.

LT: BIA - Overestimated, thanks to the other schmoes. Same case as Elf, but this time i thought it was going to be a bomb... didn't follow my instinct...

M&C - Overestimated, although i hope it to have good legs passing this week, and thanks to Oscars...

Tupac - Underestimated opening, accurate ending run (i think)

Cat - Almost got it :D But I think i overestimated its ending gross.

Gothika - Accurate :D Maybe the ending gross is too high, but still.