Next Weekend's Box Office Predictions (The Last Samurai, Honey)

[thompsoncory]

THIS WEEKEND'S NEW RELEASES

The Last Samurai (Tom Cruise, Tony Goldwyn)
Honey (Jessica Alba, Mekhi Phifer)
Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of The Ring (Elijah Wood)

THE LAST SAMURAI has a built-in audience because of Cruise, and the word of mouth so far has been fantastic. It should do extremely well over the month of December. Right now, I'm predicting a $33 million opening for it.

I also believe that HONEY will do surprisingly well. It reminds me a lot of SAVE THE LAST DANCE, which came out of nowhere in January 2001 and went on to be one of the top grossers of that year. I don't think that HONEY will do as well as that movie, but it should open respectably with $16 million.

LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING is being re-released this weekend in the Extended Edition to promote the release of the third film in the trilogy. The second film will be released the weekend after. It will be released in 160 theaters, and due to the built-in audience and the fact that tickets were selling out months before, this should get a good haul of around $1.1 million.

[Mike]

*****EST. THEATER COUNTS*****

The Last Samurai - 2,900+
Honey - 1,800
Something's Gotta Give - 800 sneaks (on 12/6)
The Fellowship of the Ring (Re-issue) - 120


You just know that when the actuals come out, The Last Samurai will be in over 3,000 theaters and Honey will be in over 2,000.

Here's my predictions:

THE LAST SAMURAI - 31.2 MILLION
HONEY - 13.155 MILLION


I would love to go see that sneak peak of SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE. If my theater gets it, it will probably sell out. I don't know what I'm doing next weekend yet anyway, so I might not have time to go see it. I guess we'll see.

[sleekproductions]

The Last Samurai - 37.2 Million

Honey - 8.6 Million

[Frank the Tank]

The Last Samurai - 38 million
Honey - 8 million

[Moviefan1234]

The Last Samurai - $27 Million
Honey - $7.5 million

[SenorSpielbergo]

The Last Samurai - $40 million
Honey - $7 million

[Damned Martian]

I want Honey to make more than TLS, but that's impossible, so...

TLS - $21 M
Honey - $7 M

[idealdiscountdude]

The Last Samurai
-between $34 and $38 million opening

Honey.......sweet lord I hope this flops....but it will probably do ok
=between $5 and $8 million

[Jon Lyrik]

TLS-$35 million
Honey-$2.4 million
FOTR:EE-$3 million

[Gone in 60sec]

the last samuri...35-39 million
honey.....12-17millio
FOTR.......1-3million

[A.J. Hakari]

THE LAST SAMURAI - $20-$26 million
HONEY - $7-$11 million

I have faith that a lot of people will see the ads for HONEY and think, "Didn't this used to be called GLITTER?"

[Mike]

Originally posted by Adam J. Hakari
I have faith that a lot of people will see the ads for HONEY and think, "Didn't this used to be called GLITTER?"

It's a remake. They were supposed to correct the problems that GLITTER had with this movie. Yet, in my opinion, it looks worse. ;)

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by Mike
It's a remake. They were supposed to correct the problems that GLITTER had with this movie. Yet, in my opinion, it looks worse. ;) Well, they fixed the main mistake, changing Mariah Crapey for the uberhottie Jessica Alba. That should at least double the gross :D

[Nate6]

Originally posted by Damned Martian
That should at least double the gross :D

Man, when you double zero, it's still zero. ;)

[Jon Lyrik]

Now that I'm thinking about it, I hope Honey opens with $55-60 million and becomes an event movie, just so the Apocalypse can start and be done with.

End the pain!

[sharkstank]

last samurai-----31 mil
honey----------8 mil

WWWHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[thompsoncory]

*****MY VERY EARLY WEEKEND PREDICTIONS*****

1) THE LAST SAMURAI - $37.6 million
2) THE HAUNTED MANSION- $19.1 million
3) DR. SEUSS' THE CAT IN THE HAT - $18.4 million
4) HONEY - $16.4 million
5) ELF - $15.2 million
6) BAD SANTA - $9.9 million
7) GOTHIKA - $9.1 million
8) MASTER & COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD - $8.1 million
9) THE MISSING - $7.9 million
10) LOVE ACTUALLY - $5.1 million (if there is a theater increase)
11) TIMELINE - $4.3 million

[Jon Lyrik]

You're being generous with the drops. Remember that this is post-Thanksgiving weekend, so the films will drop hard.

[m ali]

The last samuari 42.2 million
The haunted mansion 19 million
Elf 17 million

[Mike]

******MY PREDICTIONS******

1. THE LAST SAMURAI - 31.2 MILLION
2. HONEY - 13.155 MILLION
3. ELF - 13 MILLION
4. THE CAT IN THE HAT - 12.2 MILLION
5. THE HAUNTED MANSION - 12.1 MILLION
6. BAD SANTA - 7.4 MILLION
7. MASTER & COMMANDER - 7.2 MILLION
8. GOTHIKA - 6.4 MILLION
9. THE MISSING - 6 MILLION
10. LOVE ACTUALLY - 5.8 MILLION
11. TIMELINE - 4.2 MILLION

[jolanar]

The Last Samurai 72 Million

Honey 13 Million

[Mike]

This is from Box Office Guru:

THIS WEEKEND Rifles take on swords in Tom Cruise's latest film, the epic period adventure The Last Samurai. Directed by Edward Zwick (Glory, The Siege), the R-rated film finds the former Mr. Kidman playing an American gun salesman sent to Japan to modernize the island empire's forces, only to find himself in awe of the honor of the samurai way of life his technology would in fact abolish. The success or failure of Samurai lies completely on the shoulders of Cruise since the film boasts no other major stars, the director is not a big name, and the subject matter is not based on commonly known material. In a year that has been overstuffed with sequels and franchise pics, this will actually come as a refreshing change of pace for moviegoers.

Tom Cruise remains one of Hollywood's most bankable stars as all his starring roles over the past eleven straight years have opened at number one. Not even the other Tom can say that. The Oscar-nominated actor is a big enough star that the public will give him the benefit of the doubt when he acts in a film that might not seem like an easy sell. Aside from having a star that is the closest thing in Hollywood to a sure thing, The Last Samurai possesses that end-of-year Oscar quality with its epic period story. Warner Bros. has given the two-and-a-half hour film a strong and serious marketing campaign and reviews have generally been positive. The National Board of Review even named it the second best film of 2003 after Warner stablemate Mystic River. Look for the studio to exploit that in the days to come.

After last weekend's triumvirate of family films, this weekend will see the young ones sent to the kids table while the grown ups settle in for some East-meets-West action. The Last Samurai is unlike anything else in the marketplace and although the weekend after Thanksgiving is generally an unlucky launching pad, this Meiji-era pic is poised to slice up the competition and could account for a third of all money spent on the top ten films. Charging into 2,908 locations, The Last Samurai may debut with around $32M.

James Cameron's protege Jessica Alba anchors her first feature film with the urban dance drama Honey from Universal. Helmed by music video director Bille Woodruff, the PG-13 film features the Dark Angel star playing an inner city dancer struggling to make it in the biz on her own terms. Mekhi Phifer, Lil Romeo, and Missy Elliott co-star. Urban teens and young adults are the core audience for Honey as the 22-year-old actress hopes her film will perform more like Save the Last Dance rather than like Glitter. The target audience has not been well served in recent weeks so some opportunities do exist for the film to carve out its portion of the box office pie. Young females especially may connect with the film which holds a commercially friendly rating which can only help in the marketplace. Alba will have her star wattage tested this weekend and will be hoping that a solid turnout will lead to a new career on the big screen. Opening in 1,939 theaters, Honey may debut with around $9M this weekend.

Twelve days before the highly anticipated launch of The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, New Line Cinema reissues the first chapter, The Fellowship of the Ring, in its extended format. 126 theaters across the country will allow hard-core fans to re-live what they have in their DVD collections on the big screen with hundreds of others. The following Friday, the theaters will replace Fellowship with The Two Towers and run that extended edition until Trilogy Tuesday, December 16, when all three Tolkien pics will be screened in succession ending with the midnight premiere of The Return of the King.

Post-turkey blues will hit the box office this weekend as most holdovers will suffer big declines of half or more. Last weekend's Thanksgiving frame was the second biggest on record, but was due to a collection of hot titles and not one big pace-setter. The Cat in the Hat's $24.5M three-day gross stood as the worst tally for a number one film over Thanksgiving in nine years. This weekend, a 60% drop could occur giving the Universal film $10M for the weekend and $88M overall.

Eddie Murphy generated a split decision over the holiday weekend with his comedy The Haunted Mansion. The Disney flick may drop 55% to about $11M and put its 12-day cume at $47M.

Thanks in part to Thanksgiving, the holiday sensation Elf enjoyed the largest fourth weekend gross of any film since Spider-Man and now heads into frame five. A 50% fall would give the New York-set pic $11M and boost its total to $142M.

Miramax's Billy Bob Thornton comedy Bad Santa is turning out to be an unlikely winner at the box office. After a surprisingly strong fifth place bow, the R-rated pic has jumped to number one on Monday and Tuesday and is feeding off of great word-of-mouth. Still, a 50% decline would give the dark comedy $6M for the frame and $26M in 12 days.

[horrorfreak13]

The Last Samurai - $37 million

Honey - $9 million

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by jolanar
The Last Samurai 72 Million You're WAY optimistic, aren't you?

[Mike]

Originally posted by Mike
******MY PREDICTIONS******

1. THE LAST SAMURAI - 31.2 MILLION
2. HONEY - 13.155 MILLION
3. ELF - 13 MILLION
4. THE CAT IN THE HAT - 12.2 MILLION
5. THE HAUNTED MANSION - 12.1 MILLION
6. BAD SANTA - 7.4 MILLION
7. MASTER & COMMANDER - 7.2 MILLION
8. GOTHIKA - 6.4 MILLION
9. THE MISSING - 6 MILLION
10. LOVE ACTUALLY - 5.8 MILLION
11. TIMELINE - 4.2 MILLION

I changed my predictions for CAT and HAUNTED to 12 Million even, with CAT still being ahead.

I just know my predictions are way too generous with the drops.

[Mike]

This is the crowd report for THE LAST SAMURAI from Lee's Movie Info:

Last Samurai Crowd Report

This was far from a sellout, with the venue being between half and three-quarters filled.

by Lee Tistaert


Due to an obligation prior to the screening, I didn’t end up getting to Last Samurai at the Westwood Village theater (1300 seats) in LA until about 10:25 for the 10:40 show. I had bought tickets online earlier, but was uneasy about the seating conditions given my later arrival; picking up my tickets, the show was not sold out yet, which did make me start to question the film’s box office.

Getting into the lobby and peeking in on the main floor seating, the middle section (350 - 400 seats) was crowded but the side seats on both sides of the auditorium were nearly empty; getting to the balcony (300 seats), that section was only about one-fourth filled. At this point, the crowd situation had reminded me of opening night of Once Upon a Time in Mexico at 7:00. However, by the time the lights had dimmed, the balcony was about half-filled, and the main floor seemed more crowded than it had been ten minutes earlier. Regardless, this was far from a sellout, with the venue being between half and three-quarters filled.

In terms of comparisons, A.I. had sold out the 7:00 show on opening night and likewise with Minority Report and Ocean’s 11, whereas Daredevil and Anger Management had relevant attendance as Samurai at the 10:00 hour; Once Upon a Time…’s 10:00 attendance looked about the same as well. Kill Bill did sell out the 10:00 on opening night at least an hour beforehand, but that might have been in the same vein as Eyes Wide Shut (which had sold out the night) in its ability to attract true film buffs to one of the largest theaters in LA.

At first glance I predicted roughly $8 million for Last Samurai’s first night gross based upon entering the theater; after seeing the entire crowd, $10 million seemed like a decent peak figure for the range. Is there a chance that this pulls a Daredevil, Anger Management, or something larger than Mexico in general? Possibly, as I did consider the fact that UCLA (a block away) has finals next week, which could easily keep moviegoers from coming over – we shall see.

When the lights dimmed, there was some cheering, which can be common at this theater depending on the size of the film. Once and a while the Village gets hardcore moviegoers who aren’t afraid to respond to the screen positively or negatively (cheering versus sarcasm or boo’s). For a big event film, you are likely to get some of the most insane bunch of moviegoers at a 10:00 show; for more modest-sized releases, the responses can be fairly typical multiplex reactions.

First trailer up was Miracle, which attracted a bit of sarcasm throughout its duration; the crowd had fun with this at the end, as claps went into the air, followed by a round of laughter.

Paycheck came next, which had a mostly silent reception.

Hellboy followed, which seemed to get a “what the hell?” reaction in the end. At first the audience seemed potentially intrigued, but that odor vanished very quickly.

Taking Lives was up next, which experienced a silent duration.

Troy followed, which didn’t get any apparent reactions until the end. Once Brad Pitt and Orlando Bloom’s credits were shown, there was a very short light applause that went up.

There were evidently people in the crowd who were familiar with Day after Tomorrow, as a few claps went into the air at the load-up, followed by some more enthusiasm at the finale; the reaction was nothing over the top, but the crowd seemed to be into it.

I was waiting for the Return of the King trailer to appear and light up the room with insane claps and cheers, but there was no such appearance.

In a nutshell, the crowd ate up Last Samurai. Halfway into the movie when I was contemplating my existence in that auditorium, a big applause erupted after the first main sword fight, followed by a less intense applause once Cruise had defeated more men a little later. Laughter and giggles showed up at the right spots, and a light applause went up when the end credits rolled.

I’m probably going to be pummeled to the ground for this much like Seabiscuit, but I kid you not, Last Samurai challenges The Matrix Revolutions for the award of most boring film of the year. I was actually looking forward to this, but as it was kicking into gear the movie failed to engage me (after the title hit the screen, it lost me).

Usually when a film fails to enthrall me in the first twenty minutes, I fear for my life, and especially when the running time clocks in at more than two hours. Almost halfway through Last Samurai I was still wondering when the film was going to start, as I had stared in utter boredom for an hour. There was some cinematography worth mentioning here and there, but most of what I saw was Tom Cruise trying his hardest to win Best Actor of the year with his collection of serious facial expressions. The experience sparked painful memories of seeing Gangs of New York and finding that film dull and endless.

I will give Last Samurai credit, as it does not rank as poorly as Revolutions overall, but on an entertainment spectrum Samurai bored the hell out of me despite a few moments grabbing me. I was expecting something of a Gladiator experience and got a film with long stretches of scenes that didn’t go anywhere – oh well, I guess.