Next Weekend's Box Office Predictions (Stuck On You, Something's Gotta Give)

[thompsoncory]

NEXT WEEKEND'S NEW RELEASES

Stuck On You (Matt Damon, Greg Kinnear)
Something's Gotta Give (Jack Nicholson, Diane Keaton)
Love Don't Cost A Thing (Nick Cannon, Christina Milian)
Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers (Elijah Wood, Ian McKellen)
Big Fish (Ewan McGregor, Albert Finney) - limited

I think that SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE will win the weekend with $34 million, STUCK ON YOU will come in a close second with $29 million. LOVE DON'T COST A THING should perform well and open with around $14 million. BIG FISH will have a glowing limited release before it expands and should open with close to $1 million. THE TWO TOWERS I am not yet sure of. Time will tell.

[Jon Lyrik]

Stuck On You-$14 million
Something's Gotta Give-$20 million
Love Don't Cost A Thing-$10 million

[Damned Martian]

Stuck On You - $29 M
Something's Gotta Give - $19 M
Love Don't Cost A Thing - $6 M

[Freeway]

Something's Gotta Give - 25 mil.
Stuck on You - 20 mil.
Love Don't Cost a Thing - 10 mil.

[Frank the Tank]

Stuck On You - 21 million
Something's Gotta Give - 19 million
Love Don't Cost A Thing - 11 million

[paul]

Something's Gotta Give - - 26 million

Stuck on You - - 27 million

Love Don't Cost A Thing - - 4 million

[Moviefan1234]

Stuck On You - $22.5 million
Something's Gotta Give - $12 million
Love Don't Cost A Thing - $4 million

[sharkstank]

stuck on you------------------$26 mil
something's gotta give----$15 mil
love don't cost a thing----$7 mil

WWWWHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Mike]

******MY PREDICTIONS******

SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE - 27.2 MILLION

I think a lot of people are predicting kind of low for this. It looks like something that will do REALLY well. I could be wrong though, but I just can't see it opening below 20 Million.

STUCK ON YOU - 19.2 MILLION

LOVE DON'T COST A THING - 9.6 MILLION

[idealdiscountdude]

Originally posted by Mike
******MY PREDICTIONS******

SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE - 27.2 MILLION

I think a lot of people are predicting kind of low for this. It looks like something that will do REALLY well. I could be wrong though, but I just can't see it opening below 20 Million.

STUCK ON YOU - 19.2 MILLION

LOVE DON'T COST A THING - 9.6 MILLION

Mike, your predictions are almost exactly the same as mine!

Except I have Something's Gotta Give with $24.5 million!

Everything else is the same. :cool:

[Mike]

Originally posted by idealdiscountdude
Mike, your predictions are almost exactly the same as mine!

Except I have Something's Gotta Give with $24.5 million!

Everything else is the same. :cool:

Cool! We are so in synch :D!

My prediction for Something's Gotta Give was originally around 25 Million, but I decided I would give it the benefit of the doubt and raise it a little. A lot of people are interested in it, and I think it has crossover appeal to younger audiences (obviously not little kids, but teens and up). The stars alone will attract a big opening. It just looks very enjoyable. I see it doing really well. A finish of over 100 Million seems like a sure thing.

[Moviefan1234]

I think a lot of you are predicting too high for Something's Gotta Give, which seems like an adult comedy that the average moviegoers aren't going to be real excited to see. The teenage crowd should make Stuck On You win the weekend.

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by Moviefan1234
I think a lot of you are predicting too high for Something's Gotta Give, which seems like an adult comedy that the average moviegoers aren't going to be real excited to see. The teenage crowd should make Stuck On You win the weekend. I think the same. SGG will probably have stronger legs, but SOY is more likely to open bigger.

[chappers]

Something's Gotta Give-18.8
Stuck on You-21.6
Love Don't Cost a Thing-who cares?

[Freeway]

Originally posted by chappers
Love Don't Cost a Thing-who cares?

Yeah, who really asked for a black version of Can't Buy Me Love?:rolleyes:

[Narst]

I can't figure out which way Stuck On You is going to go. I think that Something's Gotta Give will actually have a bigger gross than it opening weekend but Stuck On You will still be close with maybe $18 Million. I see it performing similar to Shallow Hal with relatively quiet business but small dropoffs and sticking around for a while with a final gross around $65 Million. Definitely see Something's Gotta Give making over $100 Million.

[horrorfreak13]

Somethings Gotta Give - 23 million
Stuck On You - 17 million
Love Don't Cost a thing - 6 million

[Mike]

******MY PREDICTIONS******

1. SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE - 27.2 MILLION
2. STUCK ON YOU - 19.2 MILLION
3. THE LAST SAMURAI - 18.2 MILLION
4. LOVE DON'T COST A THING - 9.6 MILLION
5. HONEY - 6.4 MILLION
6. ELF - 6.1 MILLION
7. THE HAUNTED MANSION - 5.9 MILLION
8. BAD SANTA - 5.3 MILLION
9. THE CAT IN THE HAT - 3.9 MILLION
10. GOTHIKA - 2.9 MILLION
11. LOVE ACTUALLY - 2.7 MILLION
12. MASTER & COMMANDER - 2.4 MILLION
13. THE MISSING - 2.4 MILLION
14. TIMELINE - 1.4 MILLION

[Mike]

All of my predictions stayed the same, except I changed Bad Santa from 5.3 Million to 6 Million, which would bump it up to #7 and bump The Haunted Mansion down to #8.


Here's Box Office Guru's predictions about the weekend Box Office:

THIS WEEKEND A trio of new movies aimed at different audiences enters the marketplace looking to battle The Last Samurai for the top spot at the box office. Adult audiences are offered Jack Nicholson in the mature comedy Something's Gotta Give, young males are being courted by the Farrelly Brothers comedy Stuck On You, and teens are targeted by Love Don't Cost A Thing. With such a diverse slate of films in the marketplace, the overall box office should once again top year-ago numbers.

Jack's back and this time he's after Diane in the new romantic comedy Something's Gotta Give from Sony Pictures. The three-time Oscar winner plays a swinging music executive who finds his heart caught between his girlfriend (Amanda Peet) and her mother (Diane Keaton). Hardly an original character for Nicholson, Give gives audiences the type of role they usually enjoy from the legendary star. Written and directed by Nancy Meyers (What Women Want, The Parent Trap), the PG-13 film also stars Keanu Reeves, Jon Favreau, and Frances McDormand. As Hollywood's most reliable 60-plus box office draw, Nicholson can still pack 'em in. Last April's Anger Management with Adam Sandler opened to $42.2M and a $11,890 average, last winter's About Schmidt expanded nationwide with $8.5M and a $10,457 average, while December 1997's As Good As It Gets (which shares commercial similarities with Give) bowed to $12.6M and a $8,020 average.

Despite a lackluster title, Something's Gotta Give packs ample starpower, an interesting storyline, and a solid marketing push. The Last Samurai will be the only major competitor for mature adults so smooth sailing awaits. Of course, the target audience is often distracted by holiday shopping in mid-December with Christmas drawing near so many will be buying their tickets not on opening weekend, but in the weeks ahead. Reviews have generally been good and the lack of films for adult women will allow the Nicholson-Keaton vehicle to have room to breathe. Entering 2,677 theaters, Something's Gotta Give could top the box office with about $20M this weekend.

Matt Damon and Greg Kinnear play conjoined twins from Martha's Vineyard who move to Hollywood in the new Farrelly Brothers comedy Stuck On You. The Fox release also stars busty Eva Mendes in her fourth movie of the year (and first non-cop role) as well as Cher. The PG-13 film will play best with young males but is counting on the sex appeal of Ben Affleck's buddy to pull in young females. Farrelly fans are quite reliable. Openings for recent films directed by the brother team include $22.5M for Shallow Hal, $24.2M for Me, Myself, and Irene, and $13.7M for There's Something About Mary with each generating per-theater averages in the $6,000 to $8,000 range. But Stuck lacks the female appeal of the Gwenyth Paltrow pic and the A-list starpower of the Jim Carrey laugher.

Creatively, Stuck shows that the Farrellys have lost their touch and can no longer stretch a funny concept into a two hour film. Despite worthy performances by the leads, the film may find it hard to survive past the opening weekend as word of mouth is not likely to be strong. And end-of-year duds like All the Pretty Horses and The Legend of Bagger Vance have proved that Damon is no guaranteed draw at the turnstiles. Cramming into 3,003 theaters, Stuck On You might end up with about $16M this weekend.

52 weeks after last winter's surprise hit Drumline hit theaters, Nick Cannon returns to the scene of the crime as a bigger star in the high school comedy Love Don't Cost A Thing. An urban remake of the 1987 teen pic Can't Buy Me Love, the PG-13 film finds Cannon playing a social misfit who asks a popular rich girl to pose as his girlfriend in order to improve his popularity. Christina Milian, Kal Penn, and Steve Harvey also star. The toughest competition for Love will come from Honey which scored a solid $12.9M bow last weekend against no direct threats. Love has more cross-gender appeal though, but will have to share some space on the shelf with the Jessica Alba flick.

Drumline bowed exactly a year ago to $12.6M from 1,836 sites for a $6,865 average and appealed to much the same audience. Once again, Love has an appealing concept, good starpower for the demographic, and a strong targeted marketing campaign. Should Love capture the hearts of young moviegoers, other studios may frantically start snapping up remake rights for other whites-only 80s teen pics in need of an urban update for today's increasingly multicultural young audience. Opening in 1,844 theaters, Love Don't Cost A Thing could debut with about $14M.

In limited release debuts, Tim Burton returns to theaters with the fantasy adventure Big Fish, starring Ewan McGregor, which debuted in New York, Los Angeles, and Toronto on Wednesday ahead of Sony's Christmas Day expansion. On Friday, Lions Gate opens the seventeenth century drama Girl With A Pearl Earring starring Colin Firth in NY and LA. Michael Caine stars in Norman Jewison's latest, The Statement, which Sony Classics bows in NY and LA on Friday.

Tom Cruise will try to defend his first-place standing against Jack, Matt, and Nick this weekend. The Last Samurai lost plenty of business during its opening weekend thanks to winter storms in the east but if the midweek grosses are any indication, those snowed out moviegoers are now finding the time to catch the Japan-set adventure. With sturdy weekday legs, Samurai might decline by just 35% to about $16M this weekend giving the Warner Bros. epic $49M in ten days.

Universal's dance pic Honey will face direct competition from Love Don't Cost a Thing so a 45% fall to $7M may result giving the teen flick $22M in ten days. A 40% drop for The Haunted Mansion would leave the Disney film with $5.5M and a cume of $53M. Holiday titles Elf and Bad Santa could see falls of 35% and 30%, respectively, and gross $5M each for the weekend. Totals would rise to $147M and $34M. Look for The Cat in the Hat to plunge 45% to $4M giving the Universal title $90M to date.


LAST YEAR After four weeks of rule by British sequels, four new releases entered the top five causing a massive shakeup. The Sony romantic comedy Maid in Manhattan narrowly took first place with $18.7M edging out the disappointing $18.5M bow of Star Trek: Nemesis. J. Lo's date pic went on to collect $93.9M (a career best for the actress) while the Paramount franchise killer ended up with just $43.1M making it the worst-performing Trek film ever. Opening impressively in third was the college marching band tale Drumline with $12.6M on its way to $56.4M. MGM's Die Another Day followed in fourth with $7.8M in its fourth frame. Rounding out the top five was Rob Schneider's comedy The Hot Chick which debuted to $7.4M before reaching a final of $35.1M.