Next Weekend's Box Office Predictions (Lord Of The Rings, Mona Lisa Smile)

[thompsoncory]

NEXT WEEKEND'S NEW RELEASES

Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King (Elijah Wood, Ian McKellen)
Mona Lisa Smile (Julia Roberts, Kirsten Dunst)


What a great week for new releases! In a brilliant act of counterprogramming for the big event film of the year, MONA LISA SMILE will serve as a detour for those unable to get into LORD OF THE RINGS. Here are my early predictions.

Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
$78.1 million (3-day)/ $101.2 million (5-day)

Mona Lisa Smile
$31.5 million

[Damned Martian]

ROTK = $79 M / $105 M

Mona Lisa Smile = $12 M

[Jon Lyrik]

ROTK: $71.1mil (5-Day: $111.6mil)

Mona Lisa Smile: $20 million

[Mike]

LOTR: ROTK - 65 Million (3-Day)/107.1 Million (5-Day)

MONA LISA SMILE - 33.2 Million (There's pretty much no way this won't be able to open with 30 Million anyway)

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Mike
MONA LISA SMILE - 33.2 Million (There's pretty much no way this won't be able to open with 30 Million anyway) [/B]

I think it will not. Bad reviews are gonna harm it since it had some mild Oscar buzz, but it will be a good chick flick for the ladies this holiday.

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by thompsoncory
MONA LISA SMILE will serve as a detour for those unable to get into LORD OF THE RINGS. I think the target audience for both films is so different that people who can't see ROTK are most likely to see any other film but this. Stuck on You, or The Last Samurai, or Bad Santa.

[Frank the Tank]

Return Of The King - 76 million/118 million
Mona Lisa Smile - 17 million

[sharkstank]

lotr- 78 mil/109 mil
mona lisa smile- 21 mil

[Nachokoolaid]

Since no one else has braved heights above 79 million, I'll say ROTK will open to 80 mil and finish in five days with 119 mil.

Mona Lisa Smile - 26 mil.

I agree with the Damned Martian in that folks who are turned away from ROTK will see Last Samaurai or Stuck on you, not MLS.

[Moviefan1234]

The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - $87 million (Five day)
Mona Lisa Smile - $16 million

[paul]

REMOVED

[Mike]

Originally posted by Jon Lyrik
I think it will not. Bad reviews are gonna harm it since it had some mild Oscar buzz, but it will be a good chick flick for the ladies this holiday.

I really don't see the bad reviews hurting it. People will see it anyway. I know I don't care if it gets bad reviews, I'll still see it. It looks like more of a crowd-pleasing movie. Reviews won't hurt it. Tons of people will see it opening weekend, and the good audience word of mouth will help it stay strong throughout the holidays.

[ilovemovies]

With the exception of Full Frontal I don't think Julia Roberts has had a major flop in years. So although Return of the King will make A LOT more, Mona Lisa Smile should still do major business.

[darkface]

I'd like to phrase Tremors 2 "No no! It's GONNA BE HUGE!!"

My sister went to go get tickets since we've seen the first two on opening day together (might as well keep the tradition eh) neways, she went last wed. and it was sold out! The whole Wednesday is f'n sold out one week if not more in advance. Now that's amazing. I'm not a huge fan of the series, but i do want to see it cause it looks like a good movie but damn! It's gonna be HUGE B.O. wise especially opening weekend.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say....

139 Million 5-day weekend

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Mike
I really don't see the bad reviews hurting it. People will see it anyway. I know I don't care if it gets bad reviews, I'll still see it. It looks like more of a crowd-pleasing movie. Reviews won't hurt it. Tons of people will see it opening weekend, and the good audience word of mouth will help it stay strong throughout the holidays.

It will still be a hit, but if the Oscar buzz continued more, it would boost it's box office. That's what Oscars do.

[Raul Duke]

ROTK: $65 mill, $97 5 day considering a lot of people could careless and you'd think there would be alot more commercials.

MLS - why so high? $17

[Lynn Minmei]

Originally posted by Raul Duke
ROTK: $65 mill, $97 5 day considering a lot of people could careless and you'd think there would be alot more commercials.



Heh...

The anticipation is at such a feverpitch, that according to a USA Today article from yesterday, New Line is cutting back because they don't need that much advertisemnet because so many people are so excited.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Lynn Minmei
Heh...

The anticipation is at such a feverpitch, that according to a USA Today article from yesterday, New Line is cutting back because they don't need that much advertisemnet because so many people are so excited.

What I was going to say.

Ads or not, this is like Star Wars: no matter the marketing, people will see it and orgasm (in front of other people, believe it or not from the geeks) over it.

[Jon Lyrik]

My take on ROTK's Box Office-

Wednesday: $29,917,171
Thursday: $15,915,935, -46.8%
Friday: $22,696,123, +42.6%
Saturday: $27,042,431, +19.2%
Sunday: $23,567,479, -12.9%

3-Day: $72,652,341
5-Day: $118,485,497

Domestic Final: $376,634,292
Foreign Final: $542,231,821
WW Final: $1,018,866,113

Final. Sealed. No. More. Edits.

[Guy Strong]

Originally posted by Jon Lyrik
My take on ROTK's Box Office-

Wednesday: $29,917,171
Thursday: $15,915,935, -46.8%
Friday: $22,696,123, +42.6%
Saturday: $27,042,431, +19.2%
Sunday: $23,567,479, -12.9%

3-Day: $72,652,341
5-Day: $118,485,497

Domestic Final: $376,634,292
Foreign Final: $542,231,821
WW Final: $1,018,866,113

Final. Sealed. No. More. Edits.


Ditto.

[horrorfreak13]

LOTR Weekend $79 million/$115 million

Mona Lisa Smile $29 million

[darkface]

I was watching the news today, and they said that for every second, there is 5 tickets sold for LOTR: ROTK! That's amazing! i stick with my original estimate

139Million for a 5 day weekend

[Lynn Minmei]

RotK will smash the competition like: http://rennow.hp.infoseek.co.jp/kabe.gif

[Damned Martian]

Lynn, I'm crying right now. LOL:D The most hilarious thing i've seen in ages...

[Mike]

**********MY PREDICTIONS**********

1. LORD OF THE RINGS: RETURN OF THE KING - 68 MILLION (3-Day)/112.1 MILLION (5-Day)
2. MONA LISA SMILE - 33.2 MILLION
3. SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE - 10.4 MILLION
4. THE LAST SAMURAI - 9.9 MILLION
5. STUCK ON YOU - 5.8 MILLION
6. BAD SANTA - 4.8 MILLION
7. ELF - 4.5 MILLION
8. THE HAUNTED MANSION - 4.2 MILLION
9. LOVE DON'T COST A THING - 3.5 MILLION
10. HONEY - 2.4 MILLION
11. THE CAT IN THE HAT - 2.4 MILLION
12. LOVE ACTUALLY - 1.7 MILLION
13. MASTER & COMMANDER - 1.5 MILLION
14. GOTHIKA - 1.4 MILLION

[jolanar]

I havn't seen a single advertisement for MLS. I don't think it will make over 15million.

As for LOTR, well I think it will make what the last 2 made almost exactly. There is only so many people who can see the movie. ;)

[Tuukka]

According to CNN, ROTK just made 34.1 million on wednesday. Start raising your predictions...


Lord of the Rings breaks record

Lord of the Rings movie posts best Wednesday and best December day box office record, with $34.1M.
December 18, 2003: 1:08 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The debut of Time Warner Inc.'s "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" set box office records for the best Wednesday and the best single-day December sales, putting it on course to break the records of its two predecessors.


The final Lord of the Rings film did a record $34.1 million in U.S. box office Wednesday.
New Line Cinema, the Time Warner studio that has released the three legs of the trilogy each December since 2001, said the film had domestic box office sales of $34.1 million Wednesday, on about 3,650 screens.

About $8 million of that came from 2,100 screens that held midnight showings in the early hours of Wednesday, capturing fans who couldn't wait to see the final chapter of the series.

The record for best Wednesday box office sales was previously held by "Star Wars, Episode I: The Phantom Menace," which took in $28.5 million in its first day in theaters in May 1999.

The record for best single day box office sales in December was previously held by the second film in the Lord of the Rings series, "The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers," which took in $26.1 million on its Wednesday debut last December. The film also did $62 million in its first weekend in theaters, which still stands as the record opening December weekend.

Box office opening records compare only the Friday through Sunday sales. For its five-day opening the film did $102 million.

The second best December opening was the first movie in the series, "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring," which did $18.1 million on its Wednesday opening, and $47.2 million during its opening weekend, for a five-day total of $75.1 million.

Those two films together did worldwide box office of $1.8 billion, ranking them No. 7 and No. 4 in total box office of all time. Some box office forecasters believe the third film could become only the second film, after Titantic, to cross the $1 billion worldwide box office threshold, especially if it captures the Academy Award for best picture next spring.

Shares of Time Warner (TWX: Research, Estimates), which also owns CNN/Money, were slightly slightly higher in midday trading Thursday.

[Tuukka]

ROTK should make around 125-130 million for the 5 days. It probably has heavier frontloading than TTT, but not much.

[Damned Martian]

That possibly means that a total of $150 M gross in Sunday is likely...

[Tuukka]

Originally posted by Damned Martian
That possibly means that a total of $150 M gross in Sunday is likely...

RE:

Nope. If it tracks like TTT, it should end up with 135 million. But I think it will fall a bit harder than TTT and ends up with 130 million. Frontloading is stronger because of the bigger fanbase. There is no way that it's going to keep stronger legs than TTT during the first days, but it might have equal ones.

On the long run it might have better legs, thought. 350 million should be a lock at this point.

[Tuukka]

If the film would have the same legs as TTT, it would gross 444 million. I think it will have stronger frontloading and worse legs, but we will see. 350 million is a lock, 400 million a strong possibility.

I originally predicted 375 million.

[Jon Lyrik]

That is truly astonishing.

It is a lock for $378 million at this point, and that is the minimum. With a 5-Day weekend of, say $135 million, I don't see it having lower than a 2.8 multiplier at that. I personally think it will be a bit more frontloaded than TTT, but not by much, and its legs should be strong.

[gyro_44]

Expect ROTK to top "Spider-Man" on the all-time box office charts, and possibly go even farther. It could even rival "The Phantom Menace". You heard it here first.

.... or wait, you heard it from lots of other people too. I'm merely agreeing with them :D

[darkface]

Originally posted by darkface


139Million for a 5 day weekend


again, sticking with my quote from earlier. Still looks right to me!

[Lynn Minmei]

Originally posted by gyro_44
Expect ROTK to top "Spider-Man" on the all-time box office charts, and possibly go even farther. It could even rival "The Phantom Menace". You heard it here first.

.... or wait, you heard it from lots of other people too. I'm merely agreeing with them :D

I can hope...:cool:

[Moviefan1234]

Shit, I was way off. :(

I didn't think it'd take off like this.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Moviefan1234
I didn't think it'd take off like this.

I think you underestimated it pretty heavily, after all, TTT opened with $102 million with more competition. It's easier sailing for ROTK in terms of competition.

[dindio]

Common guys, don't be so negative, Maybe Lord of the Ring will
release a big gross on the box office in this first week, but may be Mona Lisa Smile will starts good in this week, give it another chance.

Lord of the Ring 3
wednesday $30-50 mil
friday $45-45 mil
total $80-100 million

Mona Lisa Smile $25-35 mil

I predict Mona Lisa Smile will be a greater movie

[Lynn Minmei]

Originally posted by dindio



I predict Mona Lisa Smile will be a greater movie

That's up for debate.

[Mike]

Originally posted by dindio
I predict Mona Lisa Smile will be a greater movie

I know I'll like it better. It would REALLY have to suck in order for me to not like it better.

It's a real shame that LOTR: ROTK looks to make more than FINDING NEMO. I wish it wouldn't happen, but it seems likely. Oh well, at least it's the last December that a LOTR movie is coming out.

Anyway, LOTR: ROTK looks to make around 85 Million for the 3-Day weekend, and 141 Million in 5 Days.

[Arathon]

5 day:
ROTK-128 Million
Mona Lisa Smile-14 million

[jolanar]

Somewhat off topic, but does anyone know how much Spiderman made on it's first day??

[Moviefan1234]

Originally posted by Jon Lyrik
I think you underestimated it pretty heavily, after all, TTT opened with $102 million with more competition. It's easier sailing for ROTK in terms of competition.

For some reason I thought The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers only opened in the $80's. Hmm, I guess I should've done a little research first.

[jolanar]

Looks like Return dropped a whopping a 50% on Thursday, it only made 17Million.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by jolanar
Looks like Return dropped a whopping a 50% on Thursday, it only made 17Million.

That's about what TTT dropped on Thursday, no big surprise. It still has a decent chance to make $90 million this weekend.

[Tuukka]

After Wednesday most industry predictions put ROTK at 15-17 million on Thursday. So it dropped pretty much what was expected.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Tuukka
After Wednesday most industry predictions put ROTK at 15-17 million on Thursday. So it dropped pretty much what was expected.

Exactly.

Excellent business for it.

It will probably make $25 million or so on Friday.

[badberry]

Originally posted by dindio

I predict Mona Lisa Smile will be a greater movie

That's pretty funny.

[badberry]

Originally posted by Mike

It's a real shame that LOTR: ROTK looks to make more than FINDING NEMO. I wish it wouldn't happen, but it seems likely. Oh well, at least it's the last December that a LOTR movie is coming out.


ROTK deserves every penny it gets. For the life of me, I can't understand why Finding Nemo did so bloody well. It's a good movie sure, but THAT good? Nah.

Mike, even if you're not a fan of the series, you have to acknowledge the technical brilliance of these films, and the painstaking effort that went into creating them. Especially Return of the King, some of the scenes are jaw dropping. I truly hope it shatters as many records as possible...maybe it will show Hollywood that producing quality film is in fact worth it.

[dellamorte dellamore]

Yeah , i never understood why Finding Nemo made so much money , but ROTK is one i can see making 400 mil plus , in fact i want it to make as much as possible , hopefully more than the ovverated Spiderman made during it's US box office run , and certainly more than an other undeserving film from this past summer , Pirates of Caribbean .

[Jon Lyrik]

Here are my predictions for the weekend (http://hollywoodbitchslap.com/feature.php?feature=872).