Friday/Weekday Numbers

[Jon Lyrik]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2003-12-12&p=.htm

:eek:

[Mike]

This is from Box Office Guru:

Jack Nicholson scored his second number one of the year with the comedy Something's Gotta Give which topped the charts on Friday with an estimated $5.3M in its first day of release. The Sony release looks to score $16-18M over the weekend.

Fox's Farrelly Brothers comedy Stuck On You debuted with an estimated $3.4M on Friday and should snag $10-11M for the weekend. Fellow freshman Love Don't Cost A Thing bowed to an estimated $2.2M on Friday and is headed for an opening weekend of $6-7M.

Among holdovers, Friday-to-Friday declines were 44% for The Last Samurai, 62% for Honey, and a slender 12% for Bad Santa.


HOLY FUCK! EVERYTHING DID SO BAD! :eek: Something's Gotta Give didn't make much more than HONEY did last Friday! :eek: I guess it doesn't help that so many people are ill/dead from the killer flu...

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Mike
HOLY FUCK! EVERYTHING DID SO BAD! :eek: Something's Gotta Give didn't make much more than HONEY did last Friday! :eek: I guess it doesn't help that so many people are ill/dead from the killer flu...

I don't wanna go off-topic, but what is all that jazz about the flu?

[Damned Martian]

Last Samurai dropped 46.7%... :D Let's say it's likely to bomb (with $140+30 M of budget, and little chances to get to $100 M of gross, it's almost official...). If you add to this that reviews haven't been specially enthusiastic (with few exceptions, it's more a "good but not great" film for critics): bye Oscars, bye!

:D

[Scarface98.9]

Damn, Bad Santa's holding on pretty well. And to think that I thought it was gonna bomb

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Damned Martian
Last Samurai dropped 46.7%... :D Let's say it's likely to bomb (with $140+30 M of budget, and little chances to get to $100 M of gross, it's almost official...). If you add to this that reviews haven't been specially enthusiastic (with few exceptions, it's more a "good but not great" film for critics): bye Oscars, bye!

:D

It was Friday, it can easily pick up this weekend.

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by Jon Lyrik
It was Friday, it can easily pick up this weekend. It will, of course, but even with drops of 40% during all its run, it won't gross more than $90 M... And it's not likely to recover much more of the drop, so...

[Damned Martian]

On other (good) news, Cat in the Hat is doing so bad now that it will be even hard for it to reach $100 M. And to think that most schmoes thought before the release that this was a lock for $200 M... :D

[Tuukka]

Well all of this is definitely good news for ROTK. It has pretty much zero competition. Even the upcoming movies that were supposed to challenge ROTK are having much worse buzz than expected.

I'm suprised that TLS didn't hold better. Everyone said that the snowstorm affected it last weekend, so it should have had a better drop.

[thompsoncory]

THE CAT IN THE HAT will reach $100 million by the end of the year, but won't go much further. Christmas will help it a lot, with a lot of kids being out of school and all.

I am really very mad at the moviegoing public for letting STUCK ON YOU do that badly. It was such a great movie, and it had everything going for it. Oh well, it could make it to $50 million by the end of its run, because it has good word of mouth.

HONEY and THE LAST SAMURAI held up well. HONEY should reach around $35 million and THE LAST SAMURAI should get $100 million.

[Lynn Minmei]

Originally posted by Mike
I guess it doesn't help that so many people are ill/dead from the killer flu...

Tell me about it...I have the pleasure of currently having the flu to the point where I haven't been out of bed for three days, since walking around is too painful for me. It hurts a huge deal to sit up and visit these forums, but still not as bad as walking. I definitely WON'T be going to the movies, as it hurts way to much, even to think about it.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Lynn Minmei
Tell me about it...I have the pleasure of currently having the flu to the point where I haven't been out of bed for three days, since walking around is too painful for me. It hurts a huge deal to sit up and visit these forums, but still not as bad as walking. I definitely WON'T be going to the movies, as it hurts way to much, even to think about it.

Ugh, sorry to here that, man.

[Lynn Minmei]

Originally posted by Jon Lyrik
Ugh, sorry to here that, man.

I'll try not to go more off-topic, but I'm not getting much better. My temperature went up a full degree, even though my body isn't numb anymore.

Oh well, good to see that the awesome The Last Samurai is doing well...HELLO OSCAR! :D

[MadsenOMC]

Didn't Honey drop like 62%? That is not holding up well. And Last Samurai will not make it to $100 million. Might not even reach $90 million. There must be some seriously disappointed studios right now. I am really surprised that Something's Gotta Give and Stuck On You didn't make more. Especially the latter. That is a really weak opening.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by thompsoncory
[B]HONEY and THE LAST SAMURAI held up well. HONEY should reach around $35 million and THE LAST SAMURAI should get $100 million.

A 62% and 47% drop are good?

[chappers]

Martian, why are happy The Last Samurai is underperforming? It as great frigging movie. And it will still make more that Russel Crowe's Master and Commander. Reviews have been very good for The Last Samurai. It may not be Braveheart, but reception has been good.
I too cannot believe Scary Movie 3 can bring in a 100 million and Stuck on You will probably struggle for 50, and that is if word of mouth gets around, and it gets overflow from other big releases. Ahh, The Public just sucks sometimes. Hate to say it, but ROTK will make 300 million and be a good movie, but I just don't care. I have never been a huge fan of the books or movies. Hopefully sold out shows can benefit some of the other quality releases these next few weeks.

[Benny]

Broke people like me are saving up their money for the Return of the King next week. That's why the decline in attendance I think.

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by chappers
Martian, why are happy The Last Samurai is underperforming? It as great frigging movie. And it will still make more that Russel Crowe's Master and Commander. Reviews have been very good for The Last Samurai. It may not be Braveheart, but reception has been good. I'm the Official Joblo Last Samurai Hater (with permission of moviemuffin, of course :)), even though I admit I haven't seen it. But everything surrounding it looks awful to me (trailer, cast, director, story...), and many reviews are just confirming my thoughts. So, I won't spend any money on it, but thanks for your care anyways ;)

BTW, it's not getting "very good reviews". 68% of good reviews and an average rating of 7/10 is just "good" IMO (http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/TheLastSamurai-1127779/). What's more: if you look at the "Cream of the Crop" column, which is supposed to have the more important critics in America, it's actually rotten (58%) and the rating is lower (6.6/10). And it has a metascore of 56, which means mixed or not enthusiastic reviews (http://www.metacritic.com/film/titles/lastsamurai/), which isn't a good signal either. Even in imdb, with people's votes, and considering that the beginnig of a movie's run is usually the highest (or lowest, in case of films like Gigli) point in its consideration, it just scores a 7.9/10 (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0325710/). I think these boards are the most praising place for this film...

[thompsoncory]

Here are some (but not all) weekend estimates...

SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE - $17 million
THE LAST SAMURAI - $14.05 million
STUCK ON YOU - $10 million
LOVE DON'T COST A THING - $6.53 million
THE HAUNTED MANSION - $6.27 million
BAD SANTA - $6.2 million
HONEY - $5.09 million
THE CAT IN THE HAT - $4.19 million
GOTHIKA - $2.73 million
MASTER & COMMANDER - $2.45 million
LOVE ACTUALLY - $2.26 million
THE MISSING - $1.6 million
BROTHER BEAR - $0.65 million
21 GRAMS - $0.32 million
LOST IN TRANSLATION - $0.219 million
BIG FISH - $0.215 million

[thompsoncory]

:( :( :( I can't believe that STUCK ON YOU opened so low. I am literally in shock, and it really pisses me off. Piece of shit movies like THE LEAGUE OF EXTRAORDINARY GENTLEMEN even opened bigger than this.

[daddiefatsacks]

Originally posted by thompsoncory
:( :( :( I can't believe that STUCK ON YOU opened so low. I am literally in shock, and it really pisses me off. Piece of shit movies like THE LEAGUE OF EXTRAORDINARY GENTLEMEN even opened bigger than this.

its allright bud, we'll get through this tragic event somehow, just remember im here to lean on

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Damned Martian
it just scores a 7.9/10 (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0325710/). I think these boards are the most praising place for this film...

JUST a 7.9? That's a high enough rating to enter the Top 250 (with enough votes). Do you even understand how the IMDb system is?

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by Jon Lyrik
JUST a 7.9? That's a high enough rating to enter the Top 250 (with enough votes). Do you even understand how the IMDb system is? 1) That doesn't seem enough to enter, since it has already 3262 votes, more than some films that have entered there (Bride of Frankenstein, for example). I guess their system of clasifying films is a bit obscure.

2) I've said that that's its rating nowadays, which means that it'll end with around 1 point less, since in the beginning the more frequent voters are those who loved the movie (hence the #1 spot of FOTR during some time, which now has become a #8). And it's just one week released. I can guess it'll drop quickly, as usual, to a more moderated rate.

Only films beyond the 8 have a chance of keeping a place over there with time.

[badberry]

Very underwhelming numbers....methinks that will change come Wednesday (can't fucking wait!)

And Damned Martian, when you've actually seen Last Samurai, then you can come back and bash it.

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by badberry
And Damned Martian, when you've actually seen Last Samurai, then you can come back and bash it. Actually, I can bash it due what I've seen, I know and I think of the movie, the cast and the director. Otherwise, I couldn't know which movies i want to see and which ones i want to avoid.

And, actually, if you read my posts carefully, you'll see that i was just talking about facts like critics' response and imdb's rating system. When I've talked about the movie from my point of view, I've always referred to what its quality looks for me, not what its quality is for me.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Homer
It's too bad about Stuck on You, a very funny movie but maybe it'll have good enough legs to reach 60 million or so. I think that a big comedic star in it would have helped immensely. Bad Santa is hanging on well, and with Christmas getting closer, it should remain to hang on.

$60 million is completely out of the question for Stuck on You. Maybe $40 million or so.

[Damned Martian]

I don't think it has many chances to pass $50 M... too much of a hold here, and comedies usually don't have good holds if they don't have very good WOM. Too bad, because the movie looks good and funny to me (and I don't use to like the Farrellys) :(

But Bad Santa does have a big chance of getting to $60, and maybe more. Quite a big surprise, and a pleasant one!

And I'm still mazed with Elf... who could have thought that it was going to make more money than Terminator 3 back in February? :eek:

[thompsoncory]

STUCK ON YOU has good word of mouth and decent reviews, so it could make it to $50 million.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Homer
December films are known for having especially versatile runs compared to other times of the year. I am thinking that it at least has a chance for 50 million, 40-45 at the least. The Hot Chick opened to 7 million and made 36, a multiplier of 5 or so beyond its opening weekend.

Yeah, it could make $50 million, but it will have a pretty terrible screen drop on Christmas, which can weaken it.

[Mike]

Guys, STUCK ON YOU may have opened surprisingly low, but movies like that that come out in December usually have good, make that REALLY good legs. Like was already mentioned with The Hot Chick, and another movie that did this was Dude, Where's My Car? If those movies can have good legs with not-so-hot critics reviews, then I'm sure Stuck on You, which has gotten considerably better reviews, will hold up the same way. I doubt it will finish with a penny less than 40 Million, and could probably find its way to 50-60 Million. Then it will do VERY well on video.