Next Weekend's Box Office Predictions (Peter Pan, Cheaper By The Dozen, Paycheck)

[thompsoncory]

NEXT WEEKEND'S NEW RELEASES

Peter Pan (Jason Isaacs, Jeremy Sumpter, Rachel Hurd-Wood)
Cheaper By The Dozen (Steve Martin, Bonnie Hunt, Hilary Duff)
Cold Mountain (Jude Law, Nicole Kidman, Renee Zellweger)
Paycheck (Ben Affleck, Aaron Eckhart, Uma Thurman)
House Of Sand And Fog (Jennifer Connelly, Ben Kingsley, Ron Eldard)
Big Fish (Ewan McGregor, Albert Finney, Jessica Lange) - expanding
-----------------

MY EARLY WEKEEND PREDICITONS (new releases only)

PETER PAN
3-day gross: $28.6 million
4-day gross: $37.1 million

CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN
3-day gross: $23.5 million
4-day gross: $31.8 million

PAYCHECK
3-day gross: $12.2 million
4-day gross: $16.1 million

COLD MOUNTAIN
3-day gross: $14.4 million
4-day gross: $19.3 million

BIG FISH
3-day gross: $7.2 million
4-day gross: $10.1 million

HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG (opens Friday)
3-day gross: $5.1 million

[Jon Lyrik]

All Three-Day:

Peter Pan-$19.5 million
Cheaper by the Dozen-$23 million
Paycheck-$15 million
Cold Mountain-$10 million

[Damned Martian]

Peter Pan - $23 million
Cheaper by the Dozen - $18 million
Paycheck - $20 million
Cold Mountain - $13 million

[Frank the Tank]

3 Days

Peter Pan - 17 million
Cheaper By The Dozen - 25 million
Paycheck - 14 million
Cold Mountain - 9 million

[thompsoncory]

This will be a hard weekend to predict, because HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG could have the number I predicted without even hitting the top ten. There a lot of promising movies opening next weekend and a lot of movies that could have great holds. I'll wait until later in the week to post my final predictions.

[paul]

Peter Pan:
32.7 (3 day)
37.9 (4 day)

Cheaper By The Dozen:
14.9 (3 day)
17.5 (4 day)

Paycheck:
18.4 (3 day)
23.1 (4 day)

Big Fish:
6.6 (3 day)
7.9 (4 day)

House of Sand and Fog
6.7 (3 day)

[Moviefan1234]

Peter Pan - $26 million
Paycheck - $16 million
Cold Mountain - $15 million
Cheaper By The Dozen - $12 million
House Of Sand And Fog - $3.5 million

[paul]

Originally posted by Moviefan1234
Cheaper By The Dozen - $7 million [/B]

No offense but that should be a little off.

I changed my CBT12 prediction...

19.6 (3 day)
24.3 (4 day)

[Moviefan1234]

Originally posted by paul
No offense but that should be a little off.


I sense a bomb. I think Peter Pan will trounce it, but that's just my opinion.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Moviefan1234
I sense a bomb. I think Peter Pan will trounce it, but that's just my opinion.

After the sneak peaks doing well, a bomb is out of the question.

Peter Pan has a higher chance of bombing due to somewhat poor marketing. Hype isn't very large, either. It can still break out though, it is Christmas, after all.

[Nate6]

I definitely think Cheaper by the Dozen is going to do well. As atrocious as it looks to all of us, it's been a long time since the whole family has had a down-to-earth, non-fantasy, non-Eddie Murphy movie they could go too, and I think there's a distinct chance it'll beat Peter Pan.


3 jours:
Cheaper by the Dozen - $28 million
Peter Pan - $17 million
Paycheck - $16 million
Cold Mountain - $11 million

[Moviefan1234]

I've changed my prediction for Cheaper By The Dozen slightly, but I still don't think it'll do as well as some of you think. That may be my opinion doing the talking though.

[Mike]

******EST. THEATER COUNTS******

Cheaper by the Dozen - 3,200+
Paycheck - 2,700
Peter Pan - 2,700
Cold Mountain - 2,500+
House of Sand and Fog - 425+
In America - 300+
Big Fish - 125
The Young Black Stallion (IMAX) - 52
Monster - 4 (LA, NYC, SF)
The Company - LA, NYC


**********MY PREDICTIONS**********


CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN - 30.1 Million (3-Day)/40 Million (4-Day)
PETER PAN - 27.2 Million (3-Day)/36.1 Million (4-Day)
PAYCHECK - 16.6 Million (3-Day)/21.5 Million (4-Day)
COLD MOUNTAIN - 11.1 Million (3-Day)/14.2 Million (4-Day)

[Mike]

**********ESTIMATED THEATER COUNTS**********

NEW

Peter Pan (Universal) / 2,840

Paycheck (Paramount) / 2,762

Cold Mountain (Miramax) / 2,163

The Young Black Stallion (IMAX) (Disney) / 51

Monster (Newmarket) / 4

The Company (Sony Classics) / 2


EXPANDING

Something's Gotta Give (Sony) / 2,709 (+32) / 3

House of Sand and Fog (DreamWorks) / 438 (+436) / 2

Looney Tunes: Back in Action (Warner Bros.) / 336 (+83) / 7

In America (Fox Searchlight) / 325 (+179) / 5

21 Grams (Focus) / 291 (+220) / 6

Scary Movie 3 (Dimension) / 195 (+74) / 10

Big Fish (Sony) / 124 (+118) / 3

The Cooler (Lions Gate) / 77 (+7) / 5

Barbarian Invasions (Miramax) / 54 (+13) / 6

Calendar Girls (Disney) / 42 (+18) / 2

Girl with a Pearl Earring (Lions Gate) / 25 (+17) / 3


NO CHANGE

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (New Line) / 3,703 / 2

Mona Lisa Smile (Sony) / 2,677 / 2


DECLINING

The Last Samurai (Warner Bros.) / 2,557 (-381) / 4

Stuck on You (Fox) / 2,400 (-607) / 3

Elf (New Line) / 2,015 (-436) / 8

Bad Santa (Dimension) / 1,710 (-515) / 5

The Haunted Mansion (Disney) / 1,622 (-792) / 5

The Cat in the Hat (Universal) / 1,296 (-825) / 6

Love Don't Cost a Thing (Warner Bros.) / 1,133 (-711) / 3

Honey (Universal) / 756 (-1068) / 4

Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World (Fox) / 751 (-299) / 7

Brother Bear (Disney) / 564 (-160) / 10

Love Actually (Universal) / 409 (-493) / 8

Gothika (Warner Bros.) / 406 (-649) / 6

Timeline (Paramount) / 320 (-300) / 5

School of Rock (Paramount) / 279 (-96) / 13

Mystic River (Warner Bros.) / 201 (-101) / 12

The Station Agent (Miramax) / 123 (-53) / 13

Lost in Translation (Focus) / 117 (-13) / 16

The Matrix Revolutions (Warner Bros.) / 116 (-156) / 8

Spy Kids 3D: Game Over (Dimension) / 59 (-69) / 23

Kill Bill Vol. 1 (Miramax) / 48 (-16) / 12

Shattered Glass (Lions Gate) / 35 (-27) / 9

The Human Stain (Miramax) / 28 (-40) / 9

Pieces of April (United Artists) / 25 (-45) / 11

Elephant (Fine Line) / 14 (-19) / 10

Dirty Pretty Things (Miramax) / 8 (-3) / 24

City of God (Miramax) / 4 (-2) / 50

The Singing Detective (Paramount Classics) / 3 (-8) / 10

Northfork (Paramount Classics) / 1 (-1) / 25


**********MY WEEKEND B.O. PREDICTIONS**********

1. LORD OF THE RINGS: ROTK - 56.6 MILLION
2. CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN - 30.1 MILLION (3-Day)/40 Million (4-Day)
3. PETER PAN - 27.2 MILLION (3-Day)/36.1 MILLION (4-Day)
4. MONA LISA SMILE - 13.7 MILLION
5. PAYCHECK - 13.6 MILLION (3-Day)/17.5 MILLION (4-Day)
6. SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE - 13.4 MILLION
7. COLD MOUNTAIN - 11.1 MILLION (3-Day)/14.2 MILLION (4-Day)
8. THE LAST SAMURAI - 8.4 MILLION
9. ELF - 6.1 MILLION
10. BAD SANTA - 5.6 MILLION
11. STUCK ON YOU - 5.6 MILLION

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by Damned Martian
Peter Pan - $23 million
Cheaper by the Dozen - $18 million
Paycheck - $20 million
Cold Mountain - $13 million I'm getting my prediction for Paycehck down to $12 M. Timeline 2 anyone?

[paul]

Stupid me, forgot my Cold Mountain guess...

16 (3 day)
21 (4 day)

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Mike
[B]Looney Tunes: Back in Action (Warner Bros.) / 336 (+83) / 7


OMG YAY!!!!11

In all seriousness, Paycheck looks like another Timeline. What, exactly, does it have going for it.

[Mike]

Originally posted by Damned Martian
I'm getting my prediction for Paycehck down to $12 M. Timeline 2 anyone?

Exactly! It reminds me of another Timeline as well. I lowered my predictions too, but they are probably still not low enough.

[Mike]

From what I hear, Cold Mountain is actually having a lot of sell-outs. Cheaper By The Dozen and Paycheck are also supposed to be playing to full/sold-out audiences (of course, Paycheck might be in the smaller theaters so it could be easier for it to sell out). The one that seems to be doing not-so-hot is Peter Pan. It could probably have good legs though with the great reviews and audience reaction. I know my interest has grown.

[paul]

Peter Pan:

16 (3 day)
21 (4 day)

[paul]

Originally posted by paul
Peter Pan:

16 (3 day)
21 (4 day)

LOL. Thats the same as my Cold Mountain grade. :p

[Mike]

Originally posted by paul
LOL. Thats the same as my Cold Mountain grade. :p

Do you mean prediction? ;)