The Last Samurai = B.O. Flop?

[darkface]

I thought the movie was terrific, 9/10 and number 3 on my top 10 list this year. But according to the numbers, it doesn't seem to be such a hit for the studios.

The Production Budget alone was: $140 million[/B]

Est. Marketing Costs: $30 million

TOTAL BUDGET = $170,000,000

***************************
DOMESTIC: $59,000,000

Overseas Grpss: $19.2 million

TOTAL GROSS = 78,000,000

I know it's only been in the theater three weeks, but the numbers are going down :(. It was even shot down at the golden globes when i thought it would have a lot more nominations. It was such a great movie, and i think most of the schmoes here would agree. All of my friends even loved it. So why isn't it doing that well? $78 Million can be a success, but not when the budget for the movie is $170 Mil. Guess this is somewhat of a rant, cause i want it to do better, but also to answer the question of how come it's not doing as well as they predicted? Bad Chemistry? Bad timing?

[Moviefan1234]

I think once its done its box office run, rentals, and buys it should come close to breaking even. It's a shame its not doing better, it's a brillant film.

[Jon Lyrik]

Yes, in a way. It depends on International Grosses and Video Sales.

[Nate6]

It'll eventually turn a small profit, I think, but it's certainly a disappointment. I really want to see it (haven't yet) but maybe what's turning people off is the running time, or maybe people think it looks boring, or the R rating.

[The Delfonics]

It was good but it wasnt that great. I wasnt suprised with the award snubs because the story is a bit too cheesy. Period pieces really dont do well. If you look at GONY last year, it did well but not great.

[Negrotigre]

Very dissapointing to me. I loved this movie! Nowadays several good movies haven't done well, while some certifyable pieces of trash have made boatloads of cash; troubling.

Negrotigre

[Mr. Fred Krueger]

I agree the film is great. It was just released at a very poor time. Two weeks before Lord of the Rings? Not smart, fellas. Hopefully it breaks even on the rentals and video sales.

[thompsoncory]

It will make its budget back internationally and with video/DVD rentals.

[Damned Martian]

I usually compare it to Master and Commander, since both are somehow similar: big-budget historical action dramas that are not going to get to $100 M. Both started their runs with more or less the same money (around $25 M, a bit more for M&C, a bit less for TLS). But while M&C has had strong reviews (84% in rotten tomatoes, 82/100 in metacritic), TLS has disappointed (68%, 53/100). And while M&C had small drops during its weekends (39.4%, 20.8%, 69.1%, 36%, 40.2%), TLS's drops are being quite important (42%, 48.2%). Plus, M&C is getting the awards and TLS isn't. I think that if almost everyone talks about flop in M&C's case, TLS is most certainly a bigger flop.

It will still turn even when everything is said and done (it still has to open internationally, cause the overseas numbers are just from Japan). But it was intended to give strong benefits...

[JCR]

To say what overseas gross is now is a little misleading because it hasn't opened it very many places- it opens in my neck of the woods on 9th january

[blankpage]

When it goes international and video, it will probably make some profit. But, even so, it is still a disappointment. Word was that it was going to be a hit. I think the snow storm did affect some sales. And after that, people just didn't care because of 'Return of the King'. Sad.

[rupert pupkin]

its not a particularly pro-america movie

which doesnt help

[chappers]

I would not say it is a flop, but is certainly underperforming. What a shame. I for one think it just about the best film of the year. 8.75/10. This and Master and Commander are both mega budgeted period epics that deserve audience and award recogniton. TLS is better than M&C by a wide margin in my book, but both are very good. I think the Last Samurai got overlooked by all those waiting for LOTR, a crying shame in my opinion. LOTR is not deserving of all this praise and hype, despite that is IS a good film. I think in the long run though Samurai will go down as a classic movie. Maybe now that LOTR has started to run its course these types of movies can carve out their own space. Last year Gangs was hurt by TTT, and this year TLS by ROTK. That is a tragedy, because they both were just as good if not better than LOTR. They just could not compete with the hype machine New Line had.

[TheElephants]

Originally posted by chappers
I would not say it is a flop, but is certainly underperforming. What a shame. I for one think it just about the best film of the year. 8.75/10. This and Master and Commander are both mega budgeted period epics that deserve audience and award recogniton. TLS is better than M&C by a wide margin in my book, but both are very good. I think the Last Samurai got overlooked by all those waiting for LOTR, a crying shame in my opinion. LOTR is not deserving of all this praise and hype, despite that is IS a good film. I think in the long run though Samurai will go down as a classic movie. Maybe now that LOTR has started to run its course these types of movies can carve out their own space. Last year Gangs was hurt by TTT, and this year TLS by ROTK. That is a tragedy, because they both were just as good if not better than LOTR. They just could not compete with the hype machine New Line had.

Hmm, while I agree with you on one aspect(it being a crying shame that The Last Samurai was overlooked), I do NOT think GONY was a better movie than The Two Towers and, while I love both almost equally, I think ROTK was better than The Last Samurai.

With that said, it's a damn shame it's not doing THAT well. TLS was one of the Top 3 movies of the year, in my opinion..but, like some of the other people have said, it should break even with more openings internationally and DVD/Video sales.

[jolanar]

It's a damn shame to be sure. I just don't understand what went wrong.

[Nachokoolaid]

Maybe there should have been a happier "Americanized ending" or something. The last charge succeeds and Cruise and Wantanabe singl handedly take out the entire army. Hooray!:rolleyes:

[arto_j]

It should make about 90 million, give or take, in the U.S. I do consider that underperforming, given that it had some of the best buzz of any film in December, Tom Cruise, and a huge event film status. It's already making huge money in Japan, and when it opens in the rest of the world, I suspect it'll do better...So it could make 200+ in its worldwide tour, and then add some more gravy on video. Like so many others this year, it'll be an underperforming hit.

[BarkingSparrow]

Originally posted by chappers
I would not say it is a flop, but is certainly underperforming. What a shame. I for one think it just about the best film of the year. 8.75/10. This and Master and Commander are both mega budgeted period epics that deserve audience and award recogniton. TLS is better than M&C by a wide margin in my book, but both are very good. I think the Last Samurai got overlooked by all those waiting for LOTR, a crying shame in my opinion. LOTR is not deserving of all this praise and hype, despite that is IS a good film. I think in the long run though Samurai will go down as a classic movie. Maybe now that LOTR has started to run its course these types of movies can carve out their own space. Last year Gangs was hurt by TTT, and this year TLS by ROTK. That is a tragedy, because they both were just as good if not better than LOTR. They just could not compete with the hype machine New Line had.

So, the LOTR's success has more to do with the New Line hype machine??? The facts suggests otherwise: the INCREASING box office for each film (contrasted to the SW prequels, or the Matrix sequels), the astounding and consistently high critical acclaim, and the number of awards or awards nominations, etc.

The WB hype machine was turned on even higher for the Matrix sequels, and did that help? These films may not be your piece of cake, but the facts strongly contradict your views. Hype only helps a film initially, but not in the long-term unless the film is deserving of it, and the LOTR films are most deserving of all the hype they can get. These films will be remembered and talked about for a very long time.

I like the TLS, but IMHO, it's merely a good, but not great film due in no small part to the fact that they "over-Hollywoodized" the film, mainstreamed it too much, so to speak, in an attempt to maximize the box office. And many people saw through that. There's a very good reason why the critical acclaim was basically muted for this film.

Master and Commander for the most part, avoided that trap, and consequently, it got better critical acclaim. I personally think it's technically the better film then TLS, although not quite as entertaining. Definitely, M&C is not a mainstream movie, and they knew it would not be.

[jolanar]

Is there organization that gives official "critically acclaimed" titles?

I don't know how you can say Master and Commander was more acclaimed than Last Samurai. Just look at the threads in this forum.

[BarkingSparrow]

Originally posted by jolanar
Is there organization that gives official "critically acclaimed" titles?

I don't know how you can say Master and Commander was more acclaimed than Last Samurai. Just look at the threads in this forum.

The sample size of these threads are far too small to derive any conclusions to critical acclaim.

On Metacritic, TLS has a 53 rating, M&C is at 82.

On RottenTomatoes TLS has 68%/57% (Fresh), with 7 and 6.6 ratings respectively, while M&C is 84%/92% (Fresh), with 7.9 and 8.3 ratings respectively.

On IMDB, TLS is 7.9 while M&C is 7.5. This is not surprising since TLS, has, as I said, been mainstreamed to a greater extent then did M&C.

[MadsenOMC]

Sorry, TLS lovers, but did you ever think that maybe not everyone loves the movie as much as you do? My friends and I hated it. Laughed our asses off during the ridiculous final 10-15 minutes. So maybe the problem is poor word of mouth. Or that it just isn't that good.

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by arto_j
It should make about 90 million, give or take, in the U.S. That's quite optimistic. Given the drops it's having (bigger than M&C), and its run so far (lower than M&C at this point), and given the fact that it will be likely snubbed in the prizes that are to come (which won't help to its career), I'd say it'll be lucky to get to $80 M. Why? Because M&C is going to make barely more than that (maybe more thanks to Oscars and Golden Globes, but we'll see...)

[chappers]

No, I am not saying LOTR success is due only to the hype machine, but I AM saying that when a series as acclaimed as LOTR is with both fans and critics many people probably saved their movie money for the Event picture instead. And I would say it is safe to say that the Matrix trilogy did not follow the LOTR in increasing grosses for each picture is becasue in many(probably the majority) of people's minds thought that the Matrix trilogy got worse as it went on, unlike LOTR.

[MadsenOMC]

Last Samurai came out, what, 12 days before LOTR? I highly doubt it had any significant effect on the box office of TLS. I don't know of anyone who said, man, I'd love to see TLS, but LOTR comes out in 12 days, so I can't afford it. I'm sure it happened, but in great numbers? No way.

[BarkingSparrow]

Originally posted by chappers
No, I am not saying LOTR success is due only to the hype machine, but I AM saying that when a series as acclaimed as LOTR is with both fans and critics many people probably saved their movie money for the Event picture instead. And I would say it is safe to say that the Matrix trilogy did not follow the LOTR in increasing grosses for each picture is becasue in many(probably the majority) of people's minds thought that the Matrix trilogy got worse as it went on, unlike LOTR.


I'm not entirely sure why TLS is not doing better. As I said, I did find it a good movie (my rating was 7.5/10), it seemed to have good WOM, technical aspects of it were outstanding, and the performance of Watanabe sticks in the mind. I actually went to an advanced screening of it that was nearly sold out, and the crowd seemed to really enjoy it. I honestly thought it would much better then it did.

Could be the timing of it's release, not just ROTK, but the fact that it's a serious, war-oriented, R-rated coming out at Christmas.

[darkface]

I remember when TLS fist came out, when that snowstorm hit the northeast of america. And i remember the news talking about the SnowStorm and how it affected the B.O. for The Last Samurai, i was like... maybe, cause that is a popular area, and i wouldn't go see a movie if there was 10 feet of snow outside. But that didn't seem to be the answer either. People were looking for excuses, but i don't think there is one. The studios thought it was gonna be bigger, when it wasn't. Best answer i can come up with.

[arto_j]

Originally posted by Damned Martian
That's quite optimistic. Given the drops it's having (bigger than M&C), and its run so far (lower than M&C at this point), and given the fact that it will be likely snubbed in the prizes that are to come (which won't help to its career), I'd say it'll be lucky to get to $80 M. Why? Because M&C is going to make barely more than that (maybe more thanks to Oscars and Golden Globes, but we'll see...)

I'm estimating it based on the final tally of Vanilla Sky, which had a nearly identical release pattern, and had extremely similar drops after the first weekend, also very close to LS. Both movies also had some questinable word of mouth...It might be a little bit too optimistic, but 80-90 seems like a pretty likely final take to me.

Master and Commander is already at 80 million, gonna cross it this week, and if it reaches many oscar noms, it might even race near 100...But that's pretty far off. It will come clearly ahead of TLS, though. Gladly.

[Mr. Fred Krueger]

Originally posted by MadsenOMC
Last Samurai came out, what, 12 days before LOTR? I highly doubt it had any significant effect on the box office of TLS. I don't know of anyone who said, man, I'd love to see TLS, but LOTR comes out in 12 days, so I can't afford it. I'm sure it happened, but in great numbers? No way.

Thing is, if TLS was released earlier or later (maybe after LOTR cooled off) it wouldn't have had such a huge drop. Because of this huge drop, it's questionable as to whether or not it'll make $100 million.

[inglourious basterd]

If ROTK weren't a shoe-in for all of the categories which it will be nominated for, then this film would have gotten the attention it deserves. Typically, films that win awards get good returns in the DVD/theater re-release market.

Unfortunately, this may not be the case.

[inglourious basterd]

I was looking at boxofficemojo.com just now.

I think that it should be able to hit the 80 million dollar mark domestically on its own legs. With all the oscar buzz, it may very well make it up and over the 100 million dollar mark domestically. When you add in the overseas gross and the DVD sales, it is likely that they can make a profit.

So don't count it out yet..

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by psudoazn
When you add in the overseas gross and the DVD sales, it is likely that they can make a profit. Mmmmm... i don't know if you're considering the fact that studios receive just the 55% of the box office of the film. The rest goes for distributors, exhibitors, etc. And I don't know how much money they get from the DVD sales/rents, but i guess it isn't 100% either.

So, to turn even on theaters, it should make around $310 M worldwide... and it'll be lucky if it gets to $200 M. If the rest of that money should be made on DVD/VHS, we'd be talking about one of the biggest success in this department, I think... It could turn even eventually, but i don't think it'll ever turn profitable.

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by Homer
Mmmm... yeah, okay, whatever. Yahoo User grade: A-. Imdb: 7.9. Maybe the problem is with people that don't use the internet or that aren't cinema-lovers enough to vote in these sites, or even visit them, ain't it possible?

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by Homer
It is possible. It's also possible that people can finally learn that ain't is not a word.

ain't [eýnt] (not standard)
contraction of: am not, is not, are not, have not, or has not
example: I ain't seen it

Source: The Collins English Dictionary © 2000 HarperCollins Publishers

:rolleyes:


PS: http://jm.g.free.fr/smileys/fixes/king2.gif

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by Homer
I've always been told it isn't proper english. You're supposed to say isn't instead. All I can tell you is that I've learnt it in my English classes. I don't remember in which cases my teachers told me it was correct, but the fact that they teach it when they usually avoid terms like "wanna" or "gonna" makes me think it's correct. Besides, it was on the dictionary, so...

[Moviefan1234]

Ain't is a word, but it's not 'proper' English. It's a slang word. So you both are kind of correct.

[blankpage]

Does it really matter? As long as people understand what it means and the point is crossed. I didn't know that this was a grammar school. Let us just talk movies and not worry about how other people talk.


Oh, and FYI, the proper term is is not, but who's keeping score?

[Nate6]

This topic ain't not about The Last Samurai no more, deehick!

[arto_j]

It now stands at $74 million after making another 8 mil this weekend...The holidays should help it do well on the weekdays as well, and it's still got some time left in the theaters to make some money. I'd say that 90 million isn't undoable at all at this point.

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by arto_j
I'd say that 90 million isn't undoable at all at this point. I'll eat my former words and give you the right. I didn't know vacation was going to help all the movies so well.

Still, I hope M&C gets a lot of nominations because that's the only way it could get to $100 M :(

[arto_j]

Originally posted by Damned Martian
Still, I hope M&C gets a lot of nominations because that's the only way it could get to $100 M :(

I'm with you on that. It's the best movie of the year so far, and I hope it makes it that far...The grosses aren't too big right now though.

[Tuukka]

TSL has done so well during the holidays that 100 million should be a lock now. It didn't flop after all, even if the final number is on the low end of predictions.

[gspawn]

To sum it up quickly...
I'd pay an extra couple bucks for the DVD just to support this film. It was THAT good.

[t3h Qster]

I loved the movie, I shall buy it and call it my precious.....wait I do that alot lately......damn

[Duke Nukem]

I checked recently, and apparenlty, "The Last Samurai" has so far made 97 mil in the US. If this movie really is worth $170 mil in budget, couldn't it make up the rest through worldwide distribution? Such a case occured with T3. It was worth like $170-175 mil apparently, and only made up $150 mil in the states. It did end up making the rest up through worldwide release, though.

Obviously, "Samarai" has made considerably less than T3 lasted in the states, but it is a major movie, so I could see it getting more respect in Europe, and possibly China and Japan. Does anybody know how "Samurua" has done worldwide? Has it even been released elsewhere?

Oh, I also really liked the movie, and thought it was an excellent film (4/4).

[TheGodSon]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=lastsamurai.htm

Total as of Jan. 14, 2004: $98,457,873
+ Overseas Grpss: $100,485,345 / 3,397 screens / 13 countries



It has made around 200 million worldwide including here in the states. It has made some profit.

[The Rain Dog]

Originally posted by TheGodSon
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=lastsamurai.htm





It has made around 200 million worldwide including here in the states. It has made some profit.

Your not factroing in marketing and distribution costs.

I doubt its turned a profit just yet.

A lot of the cirtics have savaged it as well.

RD

[TheGodSon]

Originally posted by The Rain Dog
Your not factroing in marketing and distribution costs.

I doubt its turned a profit just yet.

A lot of the cirtics have savaged it as well.

RD



Well, according to Boxofficemojo. The last Samurai's budget is 140 million plus 30 million in marketing costs. Is that not 170 million?


And with both u.s. and worldwide box office reciepts, a mere 200 million dollars has been made. Is that not more than 170? Am I missing something here? Would the 140 million production budget include distribution costs?

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by TheGodSon
Well, according to Boxofficemojo. The last Samurai's budget is 140 million plus 30 million in marketing costs. Is that not 170 million?


And with both u.s. and worldwide box office reciepts, a mere 200 million dollars has been made. Is that not more than 170? Am I missing something here? Would the 140 million production budget include distribution costs?

Newsflash: only around 50-55% of the gross of a movie returns to the studio. Ther est goes to distributors/exhibitors. So if it costed $170 M with marketing and publicity costs, it has to make around $330 M worldwide to turn even.

Anyway, it should turn profitable in video/DVD.

[Tuukka]

TSL should make north of 300 million worldwide and then another 200-300 million on the DVD market. It will turn a great profit.

[Arathon]

The Last Samurai is a great movie, and its great to see it's crossed the 100 million mark, but disappointed the film was overlooked at the Golden Globes and Baftas. I'm predicting it will finish with a 108-110 million, domestically. Worldwide-360 Million.

[Indy24la]

Interesting note, I saw TLS for the 1st time on MLK's B-day at 2 pm and it was damn near sold out! There were only around 10 seats open and that's weird even for a holiday. Great movie btw, I'm pretty sure the studio's will make their money back and then some, there's not much coming out for a while. But I agree it may have been a bad judgement opening it when they did.

[Sad man]

I saw the movie today and hated it. It will make some money back though, but not as it was expected.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Damned Martian
Newsflash: only around 50-55% of the gross of a movie returns to the studio. Ther est goes to distributors/exhibitors. So if it costed $170 M with marketing and publicity costs, it has to make around $330 M worldwide to turn even.

Anyway, it should turn profitable in video/DVD.

Well, actually it cost $130 million with budget and marketing (BOM's $140 million report is a mistake). And studios only get 25% of the international take, but 55% on average of the domestic take.

[Slim_JGE]

I loved this film... I would liked to have seen it do much better. A shame, it was very well done. This and Kill Bill were two of the best newer films I've seen in some time...

[moviemuffin]

Awwwwwwww Dances with Shoguns is feeling left out?

Cry me a fucking river.

http://home.earthlink.net/~oliewankanobe/smirk.gif

[Spidey]

I just saw it, it deserves every penny it makes !
One of the best movies EVER !!
Can't wait till it comes out on DVD.

[idealdiscountdude]

The Last Samurai is definitely NOT a flop!

Domestically it could be deemd a disappointment in relation to cost but I mean it has crossed the $100 million mark in the US and Canada combined.

Internationally, it is a blockbuster, especially in Japan where it has grossed over $80 million bucks alone. To date it has crossed the $200 million mark at the International Box Office and is still going strong! It will probably finish up worldwide with $450 million, which is a superb tally.