1/9-11/04's Box Office (NEW: Chasing Liberty, My Baby's Daddy, Expanding: Big Fish)

[Jon Lyrik]

1) The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King-$17; -44.8%; Week 4
2) Big Fish-$14; +558%; Week 5 (PTA: $5,600)
3) Cheaper by the Dozen-$11.9; -44.5%; Week 3
4) Chasing Liberty-$10; Week 1 (PTA: $4,255)
5) Something's Gotta Give-$7.7; -38.3%; Week 5
6) Cold Mountain-$7.2; -39%; Week 3
7) Paycheck-$5.5; -45%; Week 3
8) Peter Pan-$5.2; -39.1%; Week 3
9) Mona Lisa Smile-$4.7; -45.9%; Week 4
10) The Last Samurai-$4.3; -42.3%; Week 6
11) Calender Girls-$4; -16.9%; Week 4 (PTA: $4,444)
12) My Baby's Daddy-$3.3; Week 1 (PTA: $3,300)

Total: $94,800,000 in the Top 12. Down 25.7% from previous weekend.

[thompsoncory]

Man! I wanted to start this thread! Oh well :D

Anyways, I think that CHASING LIBERTY will do decent, making around $11 million opening weekend and maybe $40 million total.

BIG FISH will expand to good results and make around $15 million.

MY BABY'S DADDY will bomb, on account of the fact that I have seen absolutely no advertising whatsoever.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by thompsoncory
Man! I wanted to start this thread! Oh well :D

Anyways, I think that CHASING LIBERTY will do decent, making around $11 million opening weekend and maybe $40 million total.

BIG FISH will expand to good results and make around $15 million.

MY BABY'S DADDY will bomb, on account of the fact that I have seen absolutely no advertising whatsoever.

Agree with all. Though Liberty may be a bomb at my prediction of $35 million total. Moore's films are always low-budget, though, so I'll have to see.

[Frank the Tank]

Chasing Liberty - 9 million
My Baby's Daddy - 5 million
Big Fish - 15 million

[Jon Lyrik]

Oh, and the screens:

My Baby's Daddy-1,000
Chasing Liberty-2,350
Big Fish-2,500
Calender Girls-900

[Sublime]

Big Fish - 13 million.
Chasing Liberty - 8 million.
My Babys Daddy - 3 million

[sharkstank]

big fish- 11 mil (i'll be contributing $7.50)
chasing mandy moore- 12 mil
my babys daddy- 6 mil

WWWHHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[chilli pepper]

YES I finally get my chance to see big fish.I think chasing liberty will be the highest crossing of the three new flicks (unfortunately) but you never know about big fish though i'll be giving it plenty of my cash. And like mentioned before babys daddy will bomb no question.

[Lynn Minmei]

Chasing Liberty will do well, since Teens need to go see something to numb their mind.

Then again, I have exams coming up, so I wonder if the number of teens going to the movies will be smaller than usual.

[Moviefan1234]

Chasing Liberty - $15 million
Big Fish - $9 million
My Baby's Daddy - $2.9 million

[paul]

Chasing Liberty - - 12 million

Big Fish - - 14 million

My Baby's Daddy - - 4 million

Calendar Girls - - 6 million

[idealdiscountdude]

Ideal's Predix:

1.Big Fish $18 million
2.LOTR:ROTK $17 million
3.Cheaper By The Dozen $14.5 million
4.Chasing Liberty $ 9 million
5.Cold Mountain $ 8 million
6.Something's Gotta Give $ 7.8 million
7.Paycheck $ 5.8 million
8.Mona Lisa Smile $ 5.2 million
9.Peter Pan $ 5 million
10.Calender Girls $ 4.2 million

[Jon Lyrik]

1) The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King-$14.9; -47.3%; Week 4
2) Big Fish-$14; +549.3%; Week 5
3) Cheaper by the Dozen-$12.3; -43%; Week 3
4) Chasing Liberty-$8; Week 1
5) Cold Mountain-$6.8; -41%; Week 3
6) Something's Gotta Give-$6.6; -43.5%; Week 5
7) Peter Pan-$5.2; -41.6%; Week 3
8) Mona Lisa Smile-$4.8; -41.9%; Week 4
9) Paycheck-$4.5; -53.8%; Week 3
10) The Last Samurai-$4; -45.5%; Week 6
11) Calendar Girls-$3.9; -22.5%; Week 4
12) My Baby's Daddy-$3; Week 1

[thompsoncory]

MY FINAL PREDICTIONS

1) LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING - $17.2 million
2) BIG FISH - $16.5 million
3) CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN - $13.1 million
4) CHASING LIBERTY - $12.4 million
5) COLD MOUNTAIN - $9.8 million
6) SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE - $7.1 million
7) PAYCHECK - $6.3 million
8) PETER PAN - $5.6 million
9) MONA LISA SMILE - $4.8 million
10) THE LAST SAMURAI - $4.4 million
11) CALENDAR GIRLS - $3.8 million
12) MY BABY'S DADDY - $2.7 million

I am convinced that MY BABY'S DADDY will bomb. I have yet to see an advertisement for it, and it is in such a miniscule amount of theaters that it isn't even playing CLOSE to where I live, and I live in an area where 95% of the first-run theaters are around 25 minutes away, not an extremely far distance. Everything about this movie points to a B-O-M-B.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by thompsoncory
I am convinced that MY BABY'S DADDY will bomb. I have yet to see an advertisement for it

I finally saw one advertisement this morning. Yes, it will bomb, even harder than I first thought.

Final predictions will be in later.

[Jon Lyrik]

1) The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King-$14.9
2) Big Fish-$13.7
3) Cheaper by the Dozen-$12.3
4) Chasing Liberty-$9
5) Cold Mountain-$6.8
6) Something's Gotta Give-$6.6
7) Peter Pan-$5.2
8) Mona Lisa Smile-$4.8
9) Paycheck-$4.5
10) Calendar Girls-$4.2
11) The Last Samurai-$4
12) My Baby's Daddy-$2.9

Final predictions.

[Jon Lyrik]

http://www.hollywoodbitchslap.com/feature.php?feature=901

I wrote this feature:

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King already has $296.6 million in the bag here in the US after a sturdy run this holiday season, and will inevitably have another 40%+ drop this weekend, as Christmas is over which will effect it this weekend. I see it making $14.9 million this weekend (down 47% from last weekend), putting it ever so slightly ahead of TTT on the same weekend. Next weekend is Martin Luther King Junior Day Weekend, which will give it a very steady hold. The final gross on this sucker? Said it for months: $376.6 million.

Big Fish will be a very close second. It will increase 500%+ from it’s limited run last weekend, putting it at $13.7 million with a screen average of about $5,600, which is pretty good. It will have fantastic legs and finish with about $70 million, however. Buzz is pretty much golden and Burton has a good box office track record (save for Mars Attacks! and Ed Wood), so it will find a good audience.

Cheaper by the Dozen will slip 43% to $12.3 million, which would be fairly average compared with the other films. It’s legs seem to have promise despite terrible reviews, and since it has already earned around $85 or 90 million on modest cost, it is already a profitable venture. Should end with about $135 million or so.

Chasing Liberty will have a tepid at best opening at $8 million. Nobody is really rushing to see it, but since it is a Mandy Moore front-billing flick, cost should be relatively low, so it will probably make back it’s budget. Still, $8 million isn’t a lot, and 2,400 screens for it is overdoing it.

Cold Mountain will landslide 41% to $6.8 million. The film is an Academy “I love to suck Miramax’s dick” Award contender backed by Miramax head poobah Harvey “I love to suck the Academy’s dick” Weinstein, so you can bet your grandmother’s prostate it will have good legs through the winter. $80 million total is about a lock.

Something’s Gotta Give will also have a low-40% drop, bringing a weekend total of $6.6 million. The film isn’t losing steam and is steadily pacing itself for the $100 million mark. Must be the nude shots of Diane Keaton and Jack Nicholson. Exciting!

Michael Jackson’s new favorite film, the $100 million retelling of Peter Pan, has sagged in sales this Christmas due to the baffling competition from friggin’ Cheaper by the Dozen and a Back in Action-esque marketing campaign. Unlike the doomed, equally costly Looney Tunes motion picture from this Thanksgiving, it will actually hold well, so losses won’t be nearly as drastic. It should drop about 42% this weekend and finish it’s run at like $60 million or so. So that means it should make $5.2 million. Friendly advice from your insane box office analyzer: SEE THE GODDAMN MOVIE. You owe me after ignoring BIA.

Sorry, rambled. Back to topic:

Mona Lisa Smile dropped on it’s second day, a Saturday, which I thought initially would be a terrible sign for it’s legs after Christmas. Turns out it had pretty normal legs on Christmas, so it should drop the same as most of the other holdovers. $4.8 million.

Paycheck is gonna fall fast now. It hasn’t shown a single sign of good legs after Christmas and will certainly drop at least in a high 40% and maybe even the mid-50%. So I’m going with an over 50% drop, and $4.5 million for the weekend. $55 million total.

And rounding out the Top Ten is The Last Samurai. It will pass $100 million now and make $105-110 million, but it has still under performed at the box office, especially taking the enormous budget ($140 million) into account. It will break even internationally, though. I’m sure of it. Anyway, I see it dropping around 45% down to $4 million.

And that concludes the column for this week. Well, until Saturday.