WEEKEND NUMBERS

[thompsoncory]

FRIDAY NUMBERS

1) THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT 6.17
2) ALONG CAME POLLY 5.04
3) WIN A DATE WITH TAD HAMILTON 2.55 :mad: :mad: :mad:
4) BIG FISH 1.97
5) CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN 1.51
6) RETURN OF THE KING 1.47
7) COLD MOUNTAIN 1.40
8) TORQUE 1.31
9) SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE 1.05
10) MYSTIC RIVER .75

Excuse me while I go strangle someone. These results are...unreal. Fuck you Ashton Kutcher!!! That number one spot belongs to Kate Bosworth! Goddamn Hollywood, this really pisses me off. It's been a while since I have been this disappointed in the moviegoing public. TAD HAMILTON doesn't deserve this. It deserves a lot more. But I guess a teen romance that is actually GOOD can never do great business at the box office. That's all I have to say. I have to go calm down :mad: :mad: :mad:

[Kastman]

but on the plus side you used a lot of ":mad: " faces in your post, that counts for something right.

[Jon Lyrik]

My Derby prediction is garbage.

[Mike]

Disappointing results. I don't care that The Butterfly Effect did well, but I at least wanted Win A Date With Tad Hamilton to do really well too. I wanted it to do better than Butterfly. This is very sad, and surprising. I can't believe it's doing like Chasing Liberty. I wish it would have really good legs, but I don't know about that, since not many people saw it opening weekend. It should do really well on video, but still, it's very sad that it didn't do better.


Anyway, here were my predictions:

THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT

Friday - 4.9 Million
Saturday - 5.5 Million
Sunday - 1.8 Million

Total - 12.2 Million


WIN A DATE WITH TAD HAMILTON

Friday - 6 Million
Saturday - 7.5 Million
Sunday - 4.3 Million

Total - 17.8 Million



I guess they should have released TAD HAMILTON Valentine's weekend. I was thinking, and I'm sure the studio was thinking, that it would still be around and doing well by the time Valentine's weekend rolled around, but now it doesn't look as likely. This is really sad.

[Lynn Minmei]

Originally posted by Kastman
but on the plus side you used a lot of ":mad: " faces in your post, that counts for something right.

:D

I laughed at your post.

[thompsoncory]

Originally posted by Mike
This is really sad.

I agree with you 100% on this, Mike. I also hope that TAD will have good legs, and it looks fairly likely, since it is getting very good reviews and has good buzz surrounding it. BUTTERFLY, on the other hand, is getting mixed reviews and buzz. I think that TAD could finish with around $30-35 million...but it deserves a whole lot more. Give Kate Bosworth a hit people! Ashton already has enough publicity!

[Mike]

I hope it can at least make it to 30 Million. It seems like a crowd pleaser. I definitely want to see it next weekend. Along Came Polly should give it some of its money. This sucks. Win A Date With Tad Hamilton looks really good. I was hoping it would perform more like How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days. Both Butterfly and it were competing for the younger date crowd. I wish they wouldn't have opened on the same weekend.

[MadsenOMC]

I'm sure Tad didn't open on Valentine's Day because of 50 First Dates. That would not have been a smart move. Same audience. Sorry, but I didn't like Tad and neither did the people I saw it with. So I don't think the buzz is all that great, and the reviews have not been very good, either. Mixed overall.

[thompsoncory]

Originally posted by MadsenOMC
Sorry, but I didn't like Tad and neither did the people I saw it with. So I don't think the buzz is all that great, and the reviews have not been very good, either. Mixed overall.

The sneak preview audience I saw it with loved it as much as I did, and were talking about seeing it again when we left the theater.

And, actually, the reviews have been quite good for a movie of this genre. It has a 58% on RottenTomatoes, which isn't excellent but it is very good for a teen film, considering similar films such as BRING IT ON and BLUE CRUSH scored in the low 60% range on the site as well. All the reviews are saying that it is actually pretty good and cute. I think it could have good legs. Much much better than BUTTERFLY (which has mostly bad reviews and a RottenTomatoes score of 31%).

[MadsenOMC]

It just isn't true when you say that all of the reviews call it good and cute, or whatever. I understand that you like it and you wanted it to do well, but 58% isn't all that great and not all of the reviews are positive. Not even close. Those are facts. I saw it with three females, and not one of them liked it. The theater wasn't even half-full. Granted, we're older than you, and that may have something to do with our not liking it as much.

[Damned Martian]

Well, in RT the consensus is:

Formulaic romantic comedy works better than it should thanks to a charming cast

And the ratings are 6/10 and 5.7/10 (Cream of the Crop). It's not being received very well, but not bad either. More like a middle term, a "meh" that in many cases is a "kinda cute".

[Mike]

It's got more FRESH reviews than it does ROTTEN, and is at 57% right now, and will probably eventually end up FRESH, at least once it hits video. I'd say the reviews are probably a little better than mediocre right now. But anyway, like I said, it's more of a crowd-pleaser, and for the kind of movie it is, the reviews aren't bad.

[A.J. Hakari]

Hmm...THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT did about as well as I thought it would, but I thought TAD HAMILTON would do gangbusters business.

[badberry]

I'm honestly not surprised at all considering my TV has been saturated with Butterfly Effect ads and I've seen virtually nothing about Tad. If I didn't come to sites like this, I might not have even known that the movie existed. Not that it's something I'd see anyways.

[thompsoncory]

After thinking about it, I stand where I did before on TAD HAMILTON, but BUTTERFLY EFFECT will at least help Amy Smart's career, which is a plus. The bad thing is that it might help Ethan Suplee's as well (....shudders....)

[Mike]

Originally posted by thompsoncory
The bad thing is that it might help Ethan Suplee's as well (....shudders....)

Damn it, now I'll be having nightmares tonight ;).

[Addi88]

Originally posted by thompsoncory
The bad thing is that it might help Ethan Suplee's as well

I can see it now...



This summer, prepare to see a schooner, You Dumb Bastard!
WILLAM BLACK THE MOVIE: RETURN OF THE HIDDEN PICTURE

:D

[Scarface98.9]

I only wish for Hamilton's success so Bosworth can have a hit, but other than that, I don't care if it succeeds or not. I'm just curious now to see if Kutcher alone can carry a movie like Butterfly to a profit

[Sad man]

I thought that it was pretty obvious that Butterfly would do better than Tad Hamilton. I've seen lots of tv spots and some interviews here, so I imagined that the publicity there was big. And it has Ashton Kutcher in it, playing a serious role. That's something people would like to see ;). I did expect Tad Hamilton to do better though. It's a shame, it looks really good and I really want to see it. But I'm sure it will make more money on video, so no worries.

[Mike]

I think ALONG CAME POLLY might be #1 again this weekend.

Here's Saturday's estimates:

1. ALONG CAME POLLY - 7.607
2. THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT - 6.700
3. BIG FISH - 3.334
4. CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN - 3.200
5. LOTR: ROTK - 3.142
6. WIN A DATE WITH TAD HAMILTON - 3.080
7. COLD MOUNTAIN - 2.461
8. SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE - 2.021
9. TORQUE - 2.010
10. MYSTIC RIVER - 1.575
11. CALENDAR GIRLS - 1.084
12. THE LAST SAMURAI - 1.020
13. MY BABY'S DADDY - 0.991
14. MONSTER - 0.944


*PETER PAN - 0.567
*IN AMERICA - 0.400
*MASTER AND COMMANDER - 0.200

It's sad that people looking for a romantic comedy are choosing POLLY over TAD.

But, on the upside, MONSTER looks to make about 2 Million this weekend :D. Hopefully this will come near me next weekend, and it has a good chance, with Charlize winning her Golden Globe tonight and all ;).

[Moviefan1234]

I'm surprised at how poorly Win A Date With Tad Hamilton is doing. I thought it was going to be a success, which it still could be, but it seems unlikley at this point.

[Jon Lyrik]

The Butterfly Effect - (16 / 17.10) -- Accuracy: 93.57%
Along Came Polly - (15.9 / 16.60) -- Accuracy: 95.78%
Win a Date with Tad Hamilton - (14 / 7.50) -- Accuracy: 13.33%
Big Fish - (6.6 / 7.30) -- Accuracy: 90.41%
Return of the King - (6.3 / 6.90) -- Accuracy: 91.30%
Cheaper by the Dozen - (6.3 / 6.60) -- Accuracy: 95.45%
Cold Mountain - (5.3 / 5.00) -- Accuracy: 94.00%
Torque - (4.2 / 4.40) -- Accuracy: 95.45%
Something's Gotta Give - (4.3 / 4.10) -- Accuracy: 95.12%
Mystic River - (4 / 3.10) -- Accuracy: 70.97%
Calender Girls - (2.7 / 2.4) -- Accuracy: 87.50%
The Last Samurai - (2.3 / 2.1) -- Accuracy: 90.48%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 84.447%

New Release: 53.45%
Still in Theater: 90.65%

[blankpage]

It's good to see 'Torque' failing...and 'Mystic River' still doing a bit of business.

[Mike]

TAD HAMILTON is at an estimated 7.5 Million for the weekend. Hopefully when the actuals are released, it's able to stay above 7 Million. It should be able to, but you never know.

I think BUTTERFLY will end up with under 17 Million for the weekend, like maybe 16.9 Million.

POLLY still has a chance to take the #1 spot.

MONSTER made an estimated 2.002 Million for the weekend, which gives it a per-screen average of $6,066 and a total of almost 6 Million. This should be in over 400 theaters next weekend after Charlize's Best Actress win at the Golden Globes tonight.


I'm wondering how the Golden Globe winners will be helped at the Box Office next weekend. Hopefully it will give them a good boost. Girl With A Pearl Earring has been doing really well in limited release, and is going into over 400 theaters next weekend. I wonder if it will take home anything tonight at the Globes. Of course, I don't even know if it's nominated for anything, but I'm assuming it is.

[Sad man]

Originally posted by Mike
Girl With A Pearl Earring has been doing really well in limited release, and is going into over 400 theaters next weekend. I wonder if it will take home anything tonight at the Globes. Of course, I don't even know if it's nominated for anything, but I'm assuming it is.

Yes, Scarlett Johansson was nominated for Best Actress in Drama.