This MAY: Too many movies, not enough space!

[Thiago]

This coming MAY looks like the most competitive month I've ever seen is recent movie history. There are big big movies every week and I think this can be bad for all of them.

Take a Look:

May 7 - VAN HELSING

May 14 - TROY

May 21 - SHREK 2

May 28 - THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW

and then...:

June 5 - HARRY POTTER 3


If there were enough space between these movies , I think they sure would open with 70M+ EACH, but since they are coming one after another ... I don't Know.

What I believe will happen is they will open with large numbers and then will have their numbers cut down by 50, 55 %...

I think HP3 will make the most money, but VAN HELSING and DAY AFTER can do really good too. Somehow I feel that TROY and SHREK 2 will pay a high price by being stuck between big movies.

[kirkman316]

Shrek 2 and HP3 will be the only ones to open with more than 70 Million. Van Helsing will be lucky to open with 60+. Troy and The Day After Tomorrow will be lucky to open with 50+. I'd say more for Day After Tomorrow, but that "Creators of Independence Day" line isn't what it was back in the late '90s.

[rilocay]

Shrek 2 will make the most for the opening weekend, followed by Troy than Van Hellsing.

Harry Potter wont make as much now, well it may top the latter 2 movies for opening weekends but in the long run i think harry is starting to slow down (and thank god!).

[Jyrka]

Originally posted by rilocay

Harry Potter wont make as much now, well it may top the latter 2 movies for opening weekends but in the long run i think harry is starting to slow down (and thank god!).

What makes you think that? :rolleyes:

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by rilocay
in the long run i think harry is starting to slow down (and thank god!).

Not true. It will open to $85 million at the least.

Shrek is going to open to $70 million or less.

Troy will be lucky to top $60 million.

Van Helsing will open to $65-75 million.

[bob]

Originally posted by Jon Lyrik
Not true. It will open to $85 million at the least.


Proclaiming an opinion to be untrue and proving it with an opinion...I applaud you, Mr. Lyrik.

[RicochetShaw]

Originally posted by Jon Lyrik
Van Helsing will open to $65-75 million.


Why do you think Van Helsing will do so well? I think it'll be lucky to open with 50, but I'm probably wrong...

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by bob
Proclaiming an opinion to be untrue and proving it with an opinion...I applaud you, Mr. Lyrik.

Take it easy. Don't take it that seriously.

Originally posted by RicochetShaw
Why do you think Van Helsing will do so well? I think it'll be lucky to open with 50, but I'm probably wrong...

Never underestimate the moviegoers' appetite for a summer movie in early May. I'd agree with you (though I'd shoot a bit higher) if it was a June release, but it being the first movie out of the summer gate will really help.

[Lynn Minmei]

Originally posted by bob
Proclaiming an opinion to be untrue and proving it with an opinion...I applaud you, Mr. Lyrik.

Oh, Oh, it's magic, you know?

[Backstabba]

May 7 - VAN HELSING- 60-65 mill

May 14 - TROY- 50 mill

May 21 - SHREK 2 - 75 mill

May 28 - THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW- 32 mill

June 5 - HARRY POTTER 3 - 80- 85 mill

[Thiago]

I think VAN HELSING may benefit from the fact its the first big summer movie. And I do believe it can be a good film...

I'm sure that if Harry Potter 3 opened sometime else (maybe in November like the previous two) it would be the highest opening for the series. And I think since this is probably going to be the best movie, it may do really good in the long run.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Thiago
I'm sure that if Harry Potter 3 opened sometime else (maybe in November like the previous two) it would be the highest opening for the series. And I think since this is probably going to be the best movie, it may do really good in the long run.

November is already packed with family films. The summer would be more clear sailing for it.

In November, it would do like:

89/277

In summer, more. The daily numbers would be huge.

[Horror whore]

Harry Potter 3 may not open with as much as the first two, but it will have better word of mouth and better legs overall....

Here's why:

1. The third book is considered to be the best by many people. It does not follow the same formula as the first two. There is no Voldemort. The climax does not happen in a secluded place like in the first two.

2. Alfonso Cuaron. Just from the few things we have seen so far this guy has proven to be a much better director than Columbus.

3. Better script. The first two movies were basically word for word translations. Not so with this one. The filmmakers have added little things, and have taken out things as well. Just look at the recent TV spot with the Voodoo head on the Knight Bus.

4. Shorter runtime. This movie will be 135 minutes long. That's 17 minutes shorter than the first one and 26 minutes shorter than the second one. This one probably won't have an extra 15 minutes after the climax like the first two did.

This is going to be great. It may not open with as much as the first two, but people are definitely going to like it better than its predecessors.

[therealjohng]

TROY WILL RULE ALL!!!!!!

[CyclicNightmare]

Originally posted by therealjohng
TROY WILL RULE ALL!!!!!!
ALEXANDER WILL RULE TROY!!!!!!

[Shockwave]

Holy hell, i had no idea the third Harry Potter was coming out so soon!

Its gonnabe weird without a Harry Potter/Matrix/LOTRs/Major blockbuster later on in the year...

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Shockwave
Its gonnabe weird without a Harry Potter/Matrix/LOTRs/Major blockbuster later on in the year...

What about Polar Express? Incredibles?

[CyclicNightmare]

Let's not forget Ocean's Twelve. I'd say that's blockbuster potential.

[Shockwave]

The movies listed above will be big but i doubt they will be 300 million uber blockbuster big.

The Incredibles is the only one that may reach that mark.