Will they catch Osama?

[JoBlo]

My bro came up with this one. An interesting poll to start things up in this kooky forum...

DO YOU THINK THE U.S. AND ITS "ALLIES" WILL EVENTUALLY CATCH OSAMA BIN LADEN AND IF SO...WHEN?

[Indiana Sev]

I think they'll catch the slippery bastard in the next few years...

[bmain77]

I hate listening to all the consipracy theorists out there. However, I truly do think that Osama will magically be found sometime round the middle of October or maybe even as early as late September so as not to make it too obvious.

[outsyder]

I don't think they know where he is right now.

With an election drawing nearer, it's becoming less likely that he will "suddenly" be caught. Saddam was nice, but not the real prize.


Knowing him, he's probably left allied occupied countries, and set up shop somewhere else. This will take time, but everyone leaves a trail, and he will be found.

[JCR]

Originally posted by bmain77
I hate listening to all the consipracy theorists out there. However, I truly do think that Osama will magically be found sometime round the middle of October or maybe even as early as late September so as not to make it too obvious.

That would be to unsubtle, even by bush's standards. I don't think they've got him yet, although it's pretty incredible they haven't, considering there can only be a limited area he's in, and he reportedly has serious kidney problems. (Source Michael Moore's book Dude, where's my country)

[bowieee]

Originally posted by bmain77
I hate listening to all the consipracy theorists out there. However, I truly do think that Osama will magically be found sometime round the middle of October or maybe even as early as late September so as not to make it too obvious.

Yup

[Grim H.]

Well, we caught Saddam, so that's a good start. I think it's possible we could catch him someday...probably not anytime in the near future, though.

[Jon Lyrik]

I voted that they'll "capture" him by the end of the year.

But what I really am starting to believe is a very thought-provoking theory by an internet buddy I talk to:

He thinks that Osama Bin Laden has been captured already, and has been so for months, and most of the stuff on the news about him is bullshit made up by the government.

But then, at around election time, they finally reveal Osama's capture to the public.

It may sound like conspiracy theorist horseshit, but I'm paranoid anyway.

[JCR]

Originally posted by Jon Lyrik
I voted that they'll "capture" him by the end of the year.

But what I really am starting to believe is a very thought-provoking theory by an internet buddy I talk to:

He thinks that Osama Bin Laden has been captured already, and has been so for months, and most of the stuff on the news about him is bullshit made up by the government.

But then, at around election time, they finally reveal Osama's capture to the public.

It may sound like conspiracy theorist horseshit, but I'm paranoid anyway.

I doubt it. Hell I'm as cynical as the next bush hater, but I doubt this would work if they did it; everybody would see through it- it would do more damage to bush than good.

I'd also guess if/when they get him there will be a trial*, where OBL could prove they had him for months, undoing any political advantage bush got from doing it.

* OK it'll be a military trial which will last 5 minutes before osama's given his blindfold and last cigarette, but I'd still assume he'd get the chance to speak.

[KcMsterpce]

Originally posted by JCR
I doubt it. Hell I'm as cynical as the next bush hater, but I doubt this would work if they did it; everybody would see through it- it would do more damage to bush than good.

I'd also guess if/when they get him there will be a trial*, where OBL could prove they had him for months, undoing any political advantage bush got from doing it.

* OK it'll be a military trial which will last 5 minutes before osama's given his blindfold and last cigarette, but I'd still assume he'd get the chance to speak.

Yes, this is true. However, if you try to think even further into this theory, you could say that we have him tracked, and we know where he is at this very moment. We won't capture him, or claim to know where he is, until say... September. Just like bmain77 said.

I wouldn't say this is true at all, but that would make more sense than just capturing him and hiding him.

Hell, maybe he's been found, captured, killed without a trial and will never be heard from again. Maybe whoever found him skipped the middle man and did the job him/herself. Wouldn't that be cool?

[Annie Hall]

My guess is that he will, eventually, be caught in some form or another. I have my doubts about the conspiracy theories, but, hell, I have no idea what the white house is up to anymore (not that I ever pretended to fully grasp what was going on in their minds).

[badberry]

I figure the bugger is dead already (in some bombing attack probably), and Al Queida has just covered up that fact.

[TheDeadWalk]

Originally posted by badberry
I figure the bugger is dead already (in some bombing attack probably), and Al Queida has just covered up that fact.

I doubt that. Islamic beliefs tend to glorify 'dying for your cause'. Hence the suicide bombings...

[quoth_the_raven]

My gut tells me that they will catch him, but it won't be this year.

I like the idea that hes been tracked or that hes been caught already, but part of me feels that Bush and Blair wouldn't want to hold that one back...its a perfect opportunity to show that their war on terrorism is on track. Osama was pretty much the catalyst for that, so if they did have him, I am sure we'd have known by now. If nothing else, it would keep public faith in the war on terrorism...

[Grebdron]

Originally posted by quoth_the_raven
My gut tells me that they will catch him, but it won't be this year.

I like the idea that hes been tracked or that hes been caught already, but part of me feels that Bush and Blair wouldn't want to hold that one back...its a perfect opportunity to show that their war on terrorism is on track. Osama was pretty much the catalyst for that, so if they did have him, I am sure we'd have known by now. If nothing else, it would keep public faith in the war on terrorism...

I've been saying for nearly a year that i think there's at least a middling chance that we already have him.

I don't necessarily think it's true, but I would not be shocked to find out it is.

[jeo4]

I doubt that the U.S. has him yet. A newspaper in Pakistan reported him dead in December 2001. I highly doubt that, too, as this was a time when he was being sought after most fervently and nobody could hide his body for that long. However, he was having large-scale health issues while in Tora Bora, according to 'experts'. They say he would need dialysis machines sooner or later, and carrying that medical equipment and necessary medications would prove difficult in the mountains, even with the number of foillowers he has. It's difficult to say, but I think he might be caught soon, if he isn't dead from injuries sustained during the bombing campaigns in 2001. I think it would be a little too obvious to conceal his capture and hold off until closer to election time if we actually had him. If Bush and Blair were caught in such a scandal, it would prove disastrous for both of their careers.

[Unicron]

Originally posted by Indiana Sev
I think they'll catch the slippery bastard in the next few years...

ditto

hiding in a cave somwhere

[ANavissi500]

They will catch him right before the election. That way Bush looks awesome and stays in. :(

[QUENTIN]

Since it's 3 1/2 years later and we still haven't caught him, I thought I'd revive this old thread and see what peoples thoughts are on the subject now.

Maybe, as Bush said, catching him just isn't a priority now.

[Tuukka]

If they really would have wanted to catch him, they would have. But their priorities were elsewhere. And now there seems to be even less desire to catch him than there was before.

I think he will be found eventually. But it might take anywhere from 5 to 25 years. As time goes by, he will start acting more careless. And people who protect him now might just not give a damn about him in the future anymore, as the world changes around him.

[Tai Mai Jew]

he'll probably die before we catch him... thats just how I see it going down.

[Brando @$$ Fat]

Originally posted by Tai Mai Jew
he'll probably die before we catch him... thats just how I see it going down.

Unfortunately, this is what I see happening too. I try not to use Bush as the scapegoat for everything the way some people do, but I do blame his administration for not catching bin Laden

[Thrizzle]

10,000 troops in Afghanistan (i think thats the number) was not enough.

[Cyclonus]

I admit I haven't thought that much about him lately, with the situation in Iraq. I personally think he's hiding in Pakistan (or wherever), but he may very well have died years ago. If that's the case, I can imagine his followers claiming he's still alive just to taunt us.

:confused:

What if he's already been captured? Not out of the question, but that's not where I'm leaning. If that's the case, Bush would definitely exploit this for his political ends, though there's always the risk of the truth leaking out. I do think that the poll should have this particular option.

[QUENTIN]

Originally posted by Thrizzle
10,000 troops in Afghanistan (i think thats the number) was not enough.

A dozen elite special ops probably would have been more than enough to take out Bin Laden. It's not about numbers, it's about having the right planning, management, directives, and missions.

[QUENTIN]

Originally posted by Cyclonus


What if he's already been captured? Not out of the question, but that's not where I'm leaning. If that's the case, Bush would definitely exploit this for his political ends, though there's always the risk of the truth leaking out. I do think that the poll should have this particular option.

Very true and certainly a possibility. We could have had Osama for a very long time now, and just make a tape with him whenever its politically most beneficial. Or maybe he died years ago. Or maybe we killed him. Or maybe he really is still hiding in a cave in northern Pakistan. The problem is that we don't know, and if the government knows, they're not telling us.

Lynn likes to dismiss anything that isn't read off a white house teleprompter as a "conspiracy theory," but it was a conspiracy theory in 1963 to think Oswald wasn't Kennedy's sole assassin (see everything but the Warren Report) or that the United States government would intentionally kill its own citizens to incite a war with a foreign country (see Operation Northwoods), but look how much we know about those now.

[Thrizzle]

Originally posted by QUENTIN
A dozen elite special ops probably would have been more than enough to take out Bin Laden. It's not about numbers, it's about having the right planning, management, directives, and missions.

Bin Laden was hiding in some of the harshest regions of land in the world, and just thousands and thousands of square miles. It was compared to finding a needle in a haystack. Obviously intelligence is key and guys like the green berets did a great job of gathering intel but what it came down to at Tora Bora was too much land for Bin Laden to roam im. It was said that Bin Laden escpaed into Pakistan and we were stretched too thin along the border to catch him. 70-80 thousand more troops wouldve closed those avenues of escape.

[Lynn7]

Originally posted by QUENTIN

Lynn likes to dismiss anything that isn't read off a white house teleprompter as a "conspiracy theory," but it was a conspiracy theory in 1963 to think Oswald wasn't Kennedy's sole assassin (see everything but the Warren Report) or that the United States government would intentionally kill its own citizens to incite a war with a foreign country (see Operation Northwoods), but look how much we know about those now.

It's not that I dont think there can be a conspiracy, but I like to see what the evidence is when a theory is being presented and then I judge if it sounds plausible or not. Some conspiracy theories are really wacky and easily dismissed. Some are uncertain and merit a wait and see. Others just could never be pulled off cause people are seldom capable of keeping a big secret for long, especially when many people are involved.

Anyway, his Muslim followers are capable of keeping his location secret because to them it is a matter of loyalty to Allah, the way they would percieve it. Also, in those countries people are scared to death that blabbing could cause their torture and death (for them or their family members). I the US we don't worry about that.

[shoe1985]

I honestly believe he is captured. It seems whenever support is really down a video just pop ups from either him or one of his generals. We do have secret jails and I believe he is in one.

[EVILxxx]

How would videos reminding people of Bush's failure to apprehend Bin Laden help him again?

[BubbaStrangelove]

Originally posted by Cyclonus
What if he's already been captured? Not out of the question, but that's not where I'm leaning. If that's the case, Bush would definitely exploit this for his political ends, though there's always the risk of the truth leaking out. I do think that the poll should have this particular option.


Bush gave a prime time interview in 2005, on Nightline, I believe, and when asked why he hasn't caught Bin Laden, replied by asking how they were certain we haven't caught him.

I think there is something to be gained by not announcing his capture - something beyond playing politics, but a military move in order to keep his followers out in the open so they can be squashed.

[shoe1985]

Originally posted by EVILxxx
How would videos reminding people of Bush's failure to apprehend Bin Laden help him again?

Easy, it puts fear into people's head. He is able to use this fear to get reelected, maybe if he could garner enough support he could stay in office another term, not going to happen.

I am not saying this it true, but you never know. Remember we don't know everything.

[EVILxxx]

Originally posted by shoe1985
maybe if he could garner enough support he could stay in office another term, not going to happen.



No shit.

[shoe1985]

Originally posted by EVILxxx
No shit.

I gave you a reason for it, not sure why you are so angry? Lets take a chill pill and enjoy the rest of the day now.

[EVILxxx]

I'm not angry I just found what you said to be absurd even to mention. In the past some have claimed that Bush would manipulate the statutes in place to remain in office after his term is up, merely mentioning it, even off the cuff, is a way of semi-acknowledging that possibility which doesn't do anybody any good.