Mike
12-09-2001, 06:32 PM
What's everyones Box Office Predictions for next weekend?
Here's Lees Movie Info's early predictions for next weekend and they are pretty much exactly what I think:
Next weekend sees the debut of two new films: Vanilla Sky and Not Another Teen Movie.
Audiences will be graced with yet another remake as Cameron Crowe brings us Vanilla Sky, starring Tom Cruise, Penelope Cruz and Jason Lee. So far the trailers circulating theaters don't exactly spell out the storyline but it is pretty much assumed that after meeting a new love of his (Cruise) life (Cruz), his friend played by Cameron Diaz gets jealous and drives off a road with him in the car. When he wakes up from a coma he is being accused for her murder. Thus far critics are labeling this film as the twist to not give away this year, and with the behind-the-camera presence of Cameron Crowe a lot of folks should pay their way this weekend. Crowe made his first wide-audience debut with Jerry Maguire, also starring Tom Cruise which opened up to $17.1 million on its way to a fabulous $153.6 million in domestic sales. Last year he wrote what many would just claim was the story of his own life with the rock'n'roll drama, Almost Famous, which premiered in limited release to the tune of $17,664 per-screen but didn't achieve a great deal when it hit the mainstream audiences. Given the event feel of Ocean's 11, most of its core audience were likely to have showed up for the heist flick opening weekend which will give Vanilla Sky some room to breath. Reactions from early test screenings indicate that Sky is one of the weirdest movies of the year, which isn't generally a good thing when it translates to box office numbers. The thriller has a fairly solid shot at debuting in the range of Eyes Wide Shut-like business, which was $21.7 million but a powerful $9,003 average. Paramount is booking Vanilla Sky in at least 2500 theaters (my forecast is roughly 3100) where a gross of around $25 million may result, of which should unseat Ocean's 11 from the spotlight if Not Another Movie doesn't do so.
This 3-day frame may also be considered "let's get past security" weekend, as the debut of the R-rated teen films spoof, Not Another Teen Movie shows up on movie theater screens across America. Trailers and commercials have been brewing up interest the last couple of months and with a clear weekend of no big attractions whatsoever for its core crowd (teens and young adults), a strong launch is to be expected. The Sony comedy has been having a lot in common with American Pie in buzz, as its clever Breakfast Club gags have easily caught the attention of teenagers just like the famous pie gag in AP. But with every R-rated teen comedy comes the dangerous question: just how many will be able to get beyond the doors? Since October I've had a pretty solid feeling that Teen Movie would perform with American Pie-like figures in its per-screen averages but also have a vague feeling something along the lines of Scary Movie could pop out from under the carpet and surprise box office-goers across the world. The likeliness that such will happen is not sky-high but the feeling is there. The early theater count estimate announced by Sony was 2200 locations, which was about 900 less than I was anticipating. But with some films here and there the early estimations are not accurate. If Not Another Teen Movie does in fact get a release in the neighborhood of 2200 theaters, a gross of $18.5 million may result, whereas in a more wide 3100 theaters an opening of close to $26.0 million may occur which could put it at the top spot ahead of Vanilla Sky and Ocean's 11.
Here's my TOP 3 predictions:
1. NOT ANOTHER TEEN MOVIE/ 26 Million
2. OCEAN'S ELEVEN/ 25 MILLION
3. VANILLA SKY/ 22-23 MILLION
Here's Lees Movie Info's early predictions for next weekend and they are pretty much exactly what I think:
Next weekend sees the debut of two new films: Vanilla Sky and Not Another Teen Movie.
Audiences will be graced with yet another remake as Cameron Crowe brings us Vanilla Sky, starring Tom Cruise, Penelope Cruz and Jason Lee. So far the trailers circulating theaters don't exactly spell out the storyline but it is pretty much assumed that after meeting a new love of his (Cruise) life (Cruz), his friend played by Cameron Diaz gets jealous and drives off a road with him in the car. When he wakes up from a coma he is being accused for her murder. Thus far critics are labeling this film as the twist to not give away this year, and with the behind-the-camera presence of Cameron Crowe a lot of folks should pay their way this weekend. Crowe made his first wide-audience debut with Jerry Maguire, also starring Tom Cruise which opened up to $17.1 million on its way to a fabulous $153.6 million in domestic sales. Last year he wrote what many would just claim was the story of his own life with the rock'n'roll drama, Almost Famous, which premiered in limited release to the tune of $17,664 per-screen but didn't achieve a great deal when it hit the mainstream audiences. Given the event feel of Ocean's 11, most of its core audience were likely to have showed up for the heist flick opening weekend which will give Vanilla Sky some room to breath. Reactions from early test screenings indicate that Sky is one of the weirdest movies of the year, which isn't generally a good thing when it translates to box office numbers. The thriller has a fairly solid shot at debuting in the range of Eyes Wide Shut-like business, which was $21.7 million but a powerful $9,003 average. Paramount is booking Vanilla Sky in at least 2500 theaters (my forecast is roughly 3100) where a gross of around $25 million may result, of which should unseat Ocean's 11 from the spotlight if Not Another Movie doesn't do so.
This 3-day frame may also be considered "let's get past security" weekend, as the debut of the R-rated teen films spoof, Not Another Teen Movie shows up on movie theater screens across America. Trailers and commercials have been brewing up interest the last couple of months and with a clear weekend of no big attractions whatsoever for its core crowd (teens and young adults), a strong launch is to be expected. The Sony comedy has been having a lot in common with American Pie in buzz, as its clever Breakfast Club gags have easily caught the attention of teenagers just like the famous pie gag in AP. But with every R-rated teen comedy comes the dangerous question: just how many will be able to get beyond the doors? Since October I've had a pretty solid feeling that Teen Movie would perform with American Pie-like figures in its per-screen averages but also have a vague feeling something along the lines of Scary Movie could pop out from under the carpet and surprise box office-goers across the world. The likeliness that such will happen is not sky-high but the feeling is there. The early theater count estimate announced by Sony was 2200 locations, which was about 900 less than I was anticipating. But with some films here and there the early estimations are not accurate. If Not Another Teen Movie does in fact get a release in the neighborhood of 2200 theaters, a gross of $18.5 million may result, whereas in a more wide 3100 theaters an opening of close to $26.0 million may occur which could put it at the top spot ahead of Vanilla Sky and Ocean's 11.
Here's my TOP 3 predictions:
1. NOT ANOTHER TEEN MOVIE/ 26 Million
2. OCEAN'S ELEVEN/ 25 MILLION
3. VANILLA SKY/ 22-23 MILLION