Friday Estimates, from HSXer "dougny"

[Jon Lyrik]

The Village - $20.9M
Manchurian - $6.2M
White Castle - $2.0M
Thunderbirds - $0.9M

These should be reliable.

Fantastic for The Village. Should crack $55-65 million. I don't see it having good legs, though.

The Manchurian Candidate's opening looks to be good. I see it having a good enough multiplier to crack $20 million. It will definitely have great legs, as Denzel's movies are never frontloaded and the buzz is golden.

Harold and Kumar looks to bomb. Appearantly the budget was $30 million! :eek: Why would you blow $30 million on a teen movie that is not part of the American Pie series?

Thunderbirds...BWHAHAHAHAHAH.

[Fisting Ackbar]

Fantastic for The Village. I don't see it having good legs, though.

After seeing the mixed reactions from everybody (including from people who were mad afterwards at the screening I attended) I have to agree.

Originally posted by Jon Lyrik
Thunderbirds - $0.9M

I figured it was going to bomb after hearing it did bad overseas...but a BWHAHAHAHAHAH is indeed the best thing you could say.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Fisting Ackbar
I figured it was going to bomb after hearing it did bad overseas...but a BWHAHAHAHAHAH is indeed the best thing you could say.

Yep. I figured it might, at best, make as much as Looney Tunes: Back in Action. But now it's definitely going to make under $10 million, maybe about $7.5 million-$8 million. Awful.

[Frank the Tank]

Originally posted by Jon Lyrik

Harold and Kumar looks to bomb. Appearantly the budget was $30 million! :eek: Why would you blow $30 million on a teen movie that is not part of the American Pie series?

Thunderbirds...BWHAHAHAHAHAH.

Wow, that's a shock for Harold and Kumar. This is the third teen movie this year I thought would be a decent little hit and it looks to be a flop like Eurotrip and Girl Next Door. LOL at Thunderbirds, God that looked like it could be the worst movie of the year. And it should hopefully make less than 5 million this weekend.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Frank the Tank
And it should hopefully make less than 5 million this weekend.

It might not even break $3 million. This is going to put a nice dent in whatever studio is financing it (Universal?).

[ilovemovies]

I wanted Thunderbirds to do ok. I think it looks like a fun movie but mostly I wanted it to do ok because it's directed by Jonathan Frakes! Apart from the Star Trek movies that he directed (First Contact & Insurrection) his other non-Trek flick, Clockstoppers which I personally loved, did pretty bad too I think.


Oh, well.


The Village won't have legs because if my screening is any indication it will have bad worth of mouth. I was even very disappointed with the movie.

[XCoRyX]

i wasn't expecting harold & kumar to bomb in only $2.2 million for friday, I was actually thinking it'd rank in among the #1-3 spots.

[SykkBoy]

Harold And Kumar will probably be one of those movies that bombs theaterically but does amazingly well on DVD and Video...

[Jon Lyrik]

1 N The Village BV $50,813,000 - 3,730 - $13,622 $50,813,000 $70 / - 1
2 1 The Bourne Supremacy Uni. $23,421,000 -55.4% 3,180 +15 $7,365 $98,083,000 $75 / $35 2
3 N The Manchurian Candidate Par. $20,200,000 - 2,867 - $7,045 $20,200,000 $80 / - 1
4 2 I, Robot Fox $10,050,000 -53.7% 3,204 -290 $3,136 $114,734,000 $120 / $45 3
5 4 Spider-Man 2 Sony $8,500,000 -43.4% 3,001 -752 $2,832 $344,327,000 $200 / $50 5
6 3 Catwoman WB $6,081,000 -63.6% 3,117 - $1,950 $29,412,000 $100 / $35 2
7 N Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle NL $5,150,000 - 2,135 +1,241 $2,412 $5,150,000 $9 / $20 1
8 5 A Cinderella Story WB $4,691,000 -40.1% 2,350 -275 $1,996 $40,145,000 $19 / $30 3
9 7 Fahrenheit 9/11 Lions $3,100,000 -34.9% 1,217 -638 $2,547 $109,433,000 $6 / $15 6
10 6 Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy DW $3,100,000 -55.6% 2,032 -904 $1,525 $78,134,000 $26 / $40 4
11 8 The Notebook NL $2,675,000 -37.3%
12 N Thunderbirds Uni. $2,654,000 - 2,057 - $1,290 $2,654,000 $57 / $20 1
13 16 Napoleon Dynamite FoxS $1,300,000 -19.2% 422 +33 $3,080 $9,213,000 $0.4 / - 8
14 10 Shrek 2 DW $1,300,000 -43.9% 1,019 -540 $1,275 $432,400,000 $70 / $50 11
15 14 De-Lovely UA $1,150,000 -29.5% 385 +52 $2,987 $6,915,000 - / - 5
16 9 King Arthur BV $1,059,000 -65.1% 1,134 -970 $933 $48,150,000 $120 / $40 4
17 12 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban WB $940,000 -44% 605 -403 $1,553 $243,861,000 $130 / $50 9

In other news, Garden State did quite nicely in limited release.

[Damned Martian]

It seems that good reviews and teen films together mean bomb. First Girl Next Door, and now Harold and Kumar... Sad, sad... Even sadder when you think both films are going to do a total lower than Catwoman's opening. Luckily, it has dropped like a 16 ton weight:D

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Damned Martian
It seems that good reviews and teen films together mean bomb. First Girl Next Door, and now Harold and Kumar... Sad, sad... Even sadder when you think both films are going to do a total lower than Catwoman's opening. Luckily, it has dropped like a 16 ton weight:D

The Girl Next Door didn't have good reviews. I think the main reason was definitely the R-rating for both. It's hard to make big bucks when your target audience can't get in.

[sharkstank]

i think the village (**1/2) is going to drop big. while the market place wont be as flooded as its been the last few months, word of mouth isnt very good and i think this was a 'first weekend movie'
poor harold and kumar (***)
i think manchurian will have good legs though. not much in its way
thunderbirds: HA
catwoman: HA
bourne is kicking ass still
i wonder how colateral will open
i dont think spidey (***1/2) will cross 400 milo. too bad

jon. girl next door (***1/2) has a 57% rating at rotten tomatoes. thats pretty good for a 'teen movie' actually. its ok, that and harold and kumar will recoup on dvd fer sure

WWWWWWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Mr. Fred Krueger]

Originally posted by Jon Lyrik


[b]Harold and Kumar looks to bomb. Appearantly the budget was $30 million! :eek: Why would you blow $30 million on a teen movie that is not part of the American Pie series?



Well in reality only 9 of that was used to make the movie. The rest was for advertising. It'll do remarkably well on video.

[Tuukka]

Originally posted by SykkBoy
Harold And Kumar will probably be one of those movies that bombs theaterically but does amazingly well on DVD and Video...

RE:

I agree. They should eventually get a nice profit. I think the major problem is that they should have released either on spring or on autumn. The extremely high-profile competition killed it.

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by sharkstank
igirl next door (***1/2) has a 57% rating at rotten tomatoes. thats pretty good for a 'teen movie' actually. its ok, that and harold and kumar will recoup on dvd fer sure

But it had a 42 rating on MetaCritic (which is more precise on what critics think). That's mixed-poor. Since the budget to H&K is $9 million (the person who told me it was $30 million didn't tell me that included P&A), it won't be so bad. Will be big on video. The two things that killed it was the R-Rating and the crowded release date. Probably should have been released in late August.

[EDsoulsurvive*]

Originally posted by Damned Martian
It seems that good reviews and teen films together mean bomb. First Girl Next Door, and now Harold and Kumar... Sad, sad...

not necessarily. Just look at the terrific (imo) Mean Girls.

[Damned Martian]

Originally posted by EDsoulsurvive*
not necessarily. Just look at the terrific (imo) Mean Girls. That brings another question: chick flicks do good (those pricess movies, the teenage drama queen...), and with good reviews they do great. Boy flicks, on the other hand... What other boy flicks have been released this year? Both Girl Next Door and H&K have bombed no matter their reviews... Eurotrip too...

[Jon Lyrik]

Originally posted by Damned Martian
What other boy flicks have been released this year? Both Girl Next Door and H&K have bombed no matter their reviews... Eurotrip too...

It's the R-rating. A film will bomb if the target audience can't get in alone or with friends the same age.