You biggest "Box Office Prediction" whiffs

[Badbird]

What movies did you think would be big hits but bombed, or what did you think would bomb but was a hit.

You get the idea.

My biggest "miscalculations:"

Judge Dreadd

My guess - 100+ million, actuall around 35


Twister

My guess - about 80 mil, actual around 240


Van Helsing

My Guess - Over 200 mil easy, actual around 105


Troy

My guess - Under 100 mil, actual well over 100 mil


Wild Wild West

My Guess - 300 mil, actual around 150 (I think)


The Power Rangers Movie

My guess - 125 or so, actual around 30


The Matrix

My guess - 60-70 mil, actual 175

[Ted Pikul]

I'd be more interested to know what Joel Silver thought The Matrix sequels would bank.

Especially seeing as Revolutions grossed similar returns to that sub par Jim Carrey flick Bruce Almighty.

[Buck Turgidson]

Originally posted by Badbird
Twister

My guess - about 80 mil, actual around 240


Agreed.

I was convinced, especially considering the time of year it was released, that people in the American midwest and southeast, would have zero interest in seeing a movie about something that was a daily threat, possibly even as they sat there and watched the movie.

[Backstabba]

I thought Both matrix 2 and 3 would make well over 300 million each, but that didn't happen......though they both deserved 300 million each in my opinion.

[Briare Rabbit]

I thought Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow would make a lot more than it's currently returning to the studio. Same goes for Vanity Fair.

[cisitu_1_1]

Shrek 2 - I thought it would make a little less than 200 mil, it actually made more than 400 mil

[Shockwave]

Finding Nemo for me, while an exellent movie i was sure it would be the least profitable of Pixars line up.

[p1phillips]

Originally posted by Briare Rabbit
I thought Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow would make a lot more than it's currently returning to the studio. Same goes for Vanity Fair.

Yeah, after all the positive buzz I was hearing about Sky Captain, I figured it would do very well. Most people were predicting an opening of about $30-40 million, but so far its entire gross has only managed to struggle just past $30 million.

I thought 8 Mile would bomb, but that turned out to be huge.

[A.J. Hakari]

I thought SEABISCUIT would be a dud.

I thought THE POWERPUFF GIRLS MOVIE would be a huge success.

Just goes to show you my predicting prowess. :(

[ilovemovies]

Originally posted by Ted Pikul
I'd be more interested to know what Joel Silver thought The Matrix sequels would bank.



Funny you should mention that because that would be my pick. I thought The Matrix Reloaded could actually top Titanic as the highest grossing movie of all time. I was wrong.

Also, I never, EVER would have predicted that The Passion of the Christ would have been as massive a hit as it was.

[Damned Martian]

I've had plenty of misses. The last one being predicting Sky Captain's opening above $30 million. But only this year I also thought that:

Shrek 2 wouldn't cross $300 million.
TPOTC wouldn't do more than $100 million.
Spiderman 2 would outgross the original.
HP3 would be the highest grosser of the saga.
Van Helsing, The Village and Troy would pass $200 million.
King Arthur would do around $150 million.
I Robot wouldn't cross $100 million.
The Girl Next Door and H&KGTWC would get to $50 million.
Garden State would make around what LIT did ($45 million).
Mean Girls wouldn't do more than $30 million.
Catwoman wouldn't cross the $20 million mark.

And so on...

[Mav-Man]

I didn't expect The Bourne Supremacy to make as much as it did here in the U.S. I though that maybe The Bourne Identity might've just been a fluke. I was wrong.

I predicted that it'd make in the $90-100 million range. It made $70 million more than that.

I didn't expect The Passion of The Christ to make as much as it did (what was, around $360 million). I don't think many people saw that coming.

[Ted Pikul]

Gibson's POTC was marketed heavily to the Bible Belt so perhaps it's not that surprising it did so well.

[Could Be Worse]

Sky Captain-Well over $100 million (Wish it would have)

Mean Girls-No more than $30 million