December Box Office Predictions!

[idealdiscountdude]

How well do you think December releases will do at the box office? Include your opening weekend prediction and your predicted final gross for each film. (Wide Releases Only)

December 7th:

Oceans 11> $ 41 million opening
$165 million final

December 14th:

Not Another Teen Movie> $ 15 million opening
$ 50 million final

Vanilla Sky> $ 22 million opening
$110 million final

December 19th:

Lord of The Rings> WED-$ 32 million
THURS-$ 25 million
$ 60 million weekend
$315 million final

December 21st:

Joe Somebody> $ 6 million opening
$ 32 million final

The Majestic> $ 18 million opening
$130 million final

Jimmy Neutron> $ 15 million opening
$ 85 million final

Kate And Leopold> $ 10 million opening
$ 60 million final

December 25th:

Ali> $ 27 million opening weekend
$150 million final

Imposter> $ 4 million opening weekend
$ 13 million final

December 26th:

How High> $ 9 million opening weekend
$ 30 million total

December 28th:

The Royal Tenenbaums> $ 8 million opening
$ 55 million final

*The Shipping News, A Beautiful Mind, Monsters Ball, I Am Sam, Black Hawk Down, Charlotte Gray, Iris, Business Of Strangers all open in limited release in December

[LordKaruku]

Wow, those look like pretty good guesses! Although you might want to up your Lord of the Rings final to $315.1 million, because I plan on seeing it about 10,000 times.

[idealdiscountdude]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by LordKaruku:
Wow, those look like pretty good guesses! Although you might want to up your Lord of the Rings final to $315.1 million, because I plan on seeing it about 10,000 times.</font>

Hahaha....yeah I want to see it to......I think it's gonna do great business domestically but have massive business overseas.....I can see it breaking $1 billion worldwide.

It will be second to Harry Potter here in North America but will outgross it overall worldwide.

[Mike]

Here's my predictions for some of them, some I don't know enough about and some I don't know anything about so it's too early for me to predict their Box Office, but the ones I do know I'll guess. And I'm not even going to bother guessing Lord Of The Rings, lets just say it will make a shit load of money.

OCEANS ELEVEN:

36 MILLION OPENING, 140-160 MILLION TOTAL

NOT ANOTHER TEEN MOVIE:

25 MILLION OPENING (At least), 110 MILLION TOTAL (At least)

VANILLA SKY:

I agree with you 100% idealdiscountdude, 22 MILLION OPENING, 110 MILLION TOTAL

ALI:

20 MILLION OPENING, 60 MILLION TOTAL

HOW HIGH:

10 MILLION OPENING, 32 MILLION TOTAL

[Nate6]

Ocean's 11- $48 million opening, $194 million total. This may seem like a lot but factor in star power and the fact that adults are waiting for a great flick that only they, not the kids, can enjoy.

NATM- $16 million opening, $53 million total. Mike's prediction is a bit lofty, I'd say.

Vanilla Sky- $26 million opening, $98 million total. Let's just hope it's as good as that weirdo trailer.

LOTR: FOTR- $123 million 5-day opening, $322 million total. This one's gonna be huge.

Joe Somebody- $9 million opening, $43 million total. This seems weird but "Galaxy Quest" also opened low and had great legs, ending up near $100 million.

The Majestic- $26 million opening, $101 million total. Jim Carrey, Frank Darabont. Sounds good to me.

Jimmy Neutron- $18 million opening, $93 million total. Other Nick films (like Rugrats) did similarly.

Kate and Leopold- $8 million opening, $36 million total. I know this is the Meg Ryan/Hugh Jackman flick, but I haven't heard much buzz about it.

Ali- $31 million opening, $159 million total. People are underestimating this one. HUGE buzz.

Imposter- $3 million opening, $9 million total. No comment.

How High- $6 million opening, $17 million total. Look at The Wash. This stuff isn't playing that well anymore.

The Royal Tenenbaums- $8 million opening, $55 million total. I'm going with idealdiscountdude's predictions because I have no idea how wide they're opening this.

[FlickJunkie]

Of the wide releases being released in December...

December 7th:
Ocean's 11&gt; $40 million opening - $150 million total

December 14th:
Not Another Teen Movie&gt; $20 million opening - $80 million total
Vanilla Sky&gt; $25 million opening - $110 million total

December 19th:
Lord of The Rings&gt; $60 million weekend - $300 million total

December 21st:
Joe Somebody&gt; $8 million opening - $35 million total
The Majestic&gt; $18 million opening - $90 million total
Jimmy Neutron&gt; $17 million opening - $90 million final
Kate And Leopold&gt; $13 million opening - $45 million total

December 25th:
Ali&gt; $25 million opening weekend - $125 million total
Imposter&gt; $7 million opening weekend - $18 million total

December 26th:
How High&gt; $8 million opening weekend - $25 million total

December 28th:
The Royal Tenenbaums&gt; $7 million opening - $35 million final

[This message has been edited by FlickJunkie (edited 12-01-2001).]

[MovieFreak15]

My predictions might be a bit high, but I always have a tendency to predict a bit high:
Ocean's 11- $38
finish- $164.0
Vanilla Sky- $26.0
finish- $136.0
Not Another Teen Movie- $22.0
finish- $100.0
Fellowship of the Ring- $60.0
finish- $300.0
The Majestic- $22.0
finish- $126.0
Jimmy Neutron- $15.0
finish- $75.0
Kate and Leopold- $10.0
finish- $52.0
Joe Somebody- $8.0
finish- $44.0
Ali- $26.0
finish- $142.0
The Impostor- $6.0
finish- $20.0
How High- $6.0
finish- $22.0

[Narst]

December 7th

Ocean's 11 - 37 million, 165 million

December 14th

Not Another Teen Movie - 25 million, 60 million

Vanilla Sky - 18 million, 75 million

December 19th

Fellowship of the Ring - 70 million, 325 million

December 21st

The Majestic - 17 million, 105 million

Kate and Leopold - 11 million, 70 million

Joe Somebody - 7 million, 50 million

How High - 2 million, 8 million

Jimmy Neutron - 6 million, 41 million

December 25th

Ali - 14 million, 39 million

Imposter - 5 million, 22 million

[Dumb-Fokker-**]

How High: 120,000,000 3-day weekend / 12 gazillion overall,.....hehe.

[Muha]

Interesting...

Ocean's 11 - 35 million dollars opening
95 - 100 overall

Not Another Teen Movie - 15 million opening
50 million overall

Vanilla Sky - 25 million opening
100 -110 million overall

Lord of the Rings - (wed 19 to sun 23) 145 million overall; 450 million opening; 1.2 billion worldwide (since it opens most places worldwide on the 19th)

Joe Somebody - 8 million opening
35 million overall

The Majestic - 25 million opening
125 millon overall

Jimmy Neutron - What the hell is this?

Kate and Leopold - 10 million opening
40 million overall

Ali - 35 million overall
135 million overall

Imposter - What the hell is this?

How High - Never heard of it.

The Royal Tenenbaums - 15 million opening
45 million overall

[dicaprio_travolta_man]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by idealdiscountdude:
How well do you think December releases will do at the box office? Include your opening weekend prediction and your predicted final gross for each film. (Wide Releases Only)

December 7th:

Oceans 11&gt; $ 41 million opening
$165 million final

December 14th:

Not Another Teen Movie&gt; $ 15 million opening
$ 50 million final

Vanilla Sky&gt; $ 22 million opening
$110 million final

December 19th:

Lord of The Rings&gt; WED-$ 32 million
THURS-$ 25 million
$ 60 million weekend
$315 million final

December 21st:

Joe Somebody&gt; $ 6 million opening
$ 32 million final

The Majestic&gt; $ 18 million opening
$130 million final

Jimmy Neutron&gt; $ 15 million opening
$ 85 million final

Kate And Leopold&gt; $ 10 million opening
$ 60 million final

December 25th:

Ali&gt; $ 27 million opening weekend
$150 million final

Imposter&gt; $ 4 million opening weekend
$ 13 million final

December 26th:

How High&gt; $ 9 million opening weekend
$ 30 million total

December 28th:

The Royal Tenenbaums&gt; $ 8 million opening
$ 55 million final

*The Shipping News, A Beautiful Mind, Monsters Ball, I Am Sam, Black Hawk Down, Charlotte Gray, Iris, Business Of Strangers all open in limited release in December</font>

I agree with all but two of your perdiction's, I think LOTR will top out at only 300 to 305 million but that's all... And Not Another Teen Movie will definetly top 50 million, i agree with Mike on this one, 110 million or more, due to the fact that it's a parody movie it will do very well, Hell look at Scary Movie I thought that would only make 40 million and it crossed 150 million http://www.joblo.com/ubb/eek.gif, what I'm trying to say is Don't Underestimate The Power Of Parody's... Oh and one more thing although you are probaly right about Vanilla Sky, I'm hoping it gets 140 million at least, that's just me though

[idealdiscountdude]

See I have this gut feeling that Not Another Teen Movie is going to play just like Dude Where's My Car? (which opened on the same weekend last year) rather than Scary Movie.

[Mike]

Not me, I think Not Another Teen Movie looks better than Dude, Where's My Car?, it looks a lot funnier. And a lot of people want to see it. I know for sure it will gross more than Dude, Where's My Car?, it will be a big hit.

[max]

OCEAN'S 11 - $35 mil. opening, $90 mil. total. Pros: All-star cast, Soderbergh. Cons: "Not another heist movie!"

NOT ANOTHER TEEN MOVIE - $18 mil. opening, $65 mil. total. Pros: It's not another Freddie Prinze, Jr. movie, the only movie for teens out there. Cons: May be too dumb even for teens.

VANILLA SKY - $22 mil. opening, $85 mil. total. Pros: Cruise and Diaz, Cameron Crowe, Oscar potential. Cons: box-office poison Cruz, could this be also called OPEN YOUR EYES WIDE SHUT?

LORD OF THE RINGS - $90 mil. opening, $350 mil. total. Pros: 10,OOO screens, based on a super-popular book, Oscar buzz. Cons: 3 hours long.

JOE SOMEBODY - $11 mil. opening, $60 mil. total. Pros: Tim Allen movies are family-friendly. Cons: Bad title, stupid trailer.

THE MAJESTIC - $18 mil. opening, $65 mil. total. Pros: Perfect timing for patriotic, Capra-esque tale. Cons: Boring Trailer, serious Carrey not a box-office threat.

JIMMY NEUTRON - $13 mil. opening, $50 mil. total. Pros: With the Potter mania dying quickly, kids need another distraction. Cons: Animated movies have a tough time at the b.o. unless it's from Disney or Dreamworks.

KATE AND LEOPOLD - $$16 mil. opening, $80 mil. total. Pros: A definite chick flick, Meg Ryan and romantic comedies spell b.o.. Cons: Hugh Jackson is no Tom Hanks, Meg Ryan without Tom Hanks is no b.o. guarantee.

ALI - $25 mil. opening, $75 mil. total. Pros: the legend of Ali, Oscar potential. Cons: Sports biopics don't do well at the b.o., long sports biopics doe even worse.

HOW HIGH - $10 mil. opening, $40 mil. total. Pros: Other than ALI, this is the only movie for black audiences. Cons: Coiuld be another POOTIE TANG

[max]

Ack! Excuse the typo errors. Anyway, I meant to add that the movies I think will do blockbuster business besides RINGS are opening in limited release and going wide in January. They are A BEAUTIFUL MIND (total: $140 mil.) and BLACK HAWK DOWN ($200 mil.). Of course if any of the other films gets nominated for multiple Oscars, it should easily go past the $100 mil. mark.

[Narst]

I am definatly with idealdiscountdude, I have a great feeling Not Another Teen Movie will play just like Dude, Where's My Car? They look a lot alike to me and are opening on the exact same weekend. I'm sure it will be $65 million at the most. You're going down Mike.

[Mike]

Think what you want Narse, we'll see how it opens... I'm sure it will gross more than Dude, Where's My Car?, it should gross that easily. It should be to maybe 60 Million by the end of it's second weekend in release.

[The Heart Collector]

Mike, almost all gross comedies have miserably failed this year. Scary Movie II is one of the exceptions, and it wasn't that hot either. NATM looks even dumber than that one. I say 45 mil. total.

[Fergus]

I have a gut feeling that says The Majestic will not make any more than $10-14 million in its opening weekend.

The trailer is just not strong enough and the last serious Jim Carrey movie opened with a little over $7 million in its opening weekend. Those predictions are a little high I think.

*Why don't we see how close some of the predictions came after the films open? Just to see; it might be interesting.

[Narst]

Yeah, Fergus, I think you are probably right about The Majestic. Just I really want to see it do well so I had to inflate my gross a little bit.

And as for Not Another Teen Movie, I'm sticking to my prediction. I'll see you in hell Mike.

[chumo]

I don't any of you guys realize how big FOTR really is. I expect this movie to make more than $400 million not only breaking every record... well maybe not Titanics domestic gross but deifnitely the overall worldwide gross of over $1.5 billion. Funny thing is, this is the first out of 3 to come in 3 years so buckle up because history is about to be made again in gigantic proportions.

[Mike Damone]

I'd better do this before O's 11 is released.

December 7th:
Ocean's 11&gt; $38 million opening - $120 million total

December 14th:
Not Another Teen Movie&gt; $30 million opening - $130 million total
Vanilla Sky&gt; $20 million opening - $100 million total

December 19th:
Lord of The Rings&gt; $65 million weekend - $120 million 5 day - $360 million total

December 21st:
Joe Somebody&gt; $17 million opening - $74 million total
The Majestic&gt; $20 million opening - $85 million total
Jimmy Neutron&gt; $15 million opening - $65 million final
Kate And Leopold&gt; $18 million opening - $90 million total

December 25th:
Ali&gt; $25 million opening weekend - $125 million total
Imposter&gt; $5 million opening weekend - $15 million total

December 26th:
How High&gt; $8 million opening weekend - $30 million total

December 28th:
The Royal Tenenbaums&gt; $10 million opening - $48 million final

Gosford Park could do better, but I'm predicting close to Altman's last movie(Dr. T and the Women). It could be a better movie, but lacks the names of Dr. T.

Gosford Park&gt; $2.5 million opening - $14 million final

[This message has been edited by Mike Damone (edited 12-08-2001).]

[slappysammy]

you guys are leaving out Gosford Park, the new Robert Altman film that opens December 26th. I think it will make at least 20 million plus and get several awards. it looks a lot like a cross between a merchant-ivory film and a murder mystery like the Player, which we all know was a great movie from the same director.

[Tuukka]

Phantom Menace did around 110 million in it's five day weekend. Since the word is EXTREMELY good on LOTR, it will make at least 100 million in five days. But big fan base, excellent reviews and heavy marketing hype could raise it to 120-130 million.

Everything seem so indicate that the film will have strong legs. It's gonna travel far in the B.O.

[This message has been edited by Tuukka (edited 12-11-2001).]

[NomadKnight]

OCEAN'S 11 - $125 millions total

NOT ANOTHER TEEN MOVIE - $22 mil. opening, $75 mil. total

VANILLA SKY - $20 mil. opening, $105 mil. total.

LORD OF THE RINGS - $80 mil. opening, $350 mil. total.

JOE SOMEBODY - $15 mil. opening, $60 mil. total.

THE MAJESTIC - $15 mil. opening, $85 mil. total.

JIMMY NEUTRON - $22 mil. opening, $65 mil. total.

KATE AND LEOPOLD - $15 mil. opening, $45 mil. total.

ALI - $35 mil. opening, $125 mil. total.

HOW HIGH - $2 mil. opening, $10 mil. total.

[slappysammy]

Ha! I was right about Gosford Park. It is definitely at the head of the class for "important" films after it wook three major awards from the NY Film Critics today--best director, best script, and best supporting actress for Helen Mirren.

i now think this movie has a real shot to make 25 million plus...

[Mike Damone]

Well what can I say other than "hindsight's better than foresight." I wanted to bump this so everyone could see how well their predictions went. I think the biggest surprises were Ocean's 11 and Jimmy Neutron, and the biggest disappointments were Not Another Teen Movie, Joe Somebody, The Majestic, and Ali.

Here are some of the funniest examples of bad guesses:

Ali- $31 million opening, $159 million total. People are underestimating this one. HUGE buzz.

The Majestic- $22.0 million opening, finish- $126.0 million

Not Another Teen Movie&gt; $30 million opening - $130 million total (I'll admit this is mine, damn I'm ashamed)

Jimmy Neutron - 6 million, 41 million

OCEAN'S 11 - $35 mil. opening, $90 mil. total. Pros: All-star cast, Soderbergh. Cons: "Not another heist movie!"


[This message has been edited by Mike Damone (edited 01-23-2002).]

[idealdiscountdude]

With the exception of Fergus, we were so WRONG about The Majestic. The final predictions for the film ranged from $65 million to $130+ million smacks, when in reality it won't even make $30 million.

[Nate6]

<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by idealdiscountdude:
With the exception of Fergus, we were so WRONG about The Majestic. The final predictions for the film ranged from $65 million to $130+ million smacks, when in reality it won't even make $30 million.</font>

Boy, were we ever. Myself, I thought it would get $26 million in its opening weekend, which it may get in TOTAL gross.