Predict the Best Picture Nominees

[KyleG]

The year is half over, so lets predict the best picture nominees
heres mine

Cinderella Man
Broken Flowers
The New World
Jarhead
Memoirs of a Geisha

[bigred760]

Since most of the nominees tend to be released in November/December, I have no idea what to predict. But I think Memoirs of a Geisha is a good bet; though I don't think Cinderalla Man will get many nominations.

If I had to guess - it would be
Memoirs of a Geisha
Spielberg's Munich Olympics pic - if it's released in time
All the King's Men
Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, & the Wardrobe
The New World



These are just shots in the dark, mind you - I haven't seen or heard much about any of these.

[XvoorheesX]

Elektra
XXX: State of the Union
Deuce Bigelow: European Gigolo
Ice Princess
Racing Stripes

[zeppelin]

Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World
The Producers
Elizabethtown
Proof

[ChemicalRomance]

Sin City for one...

...please?

[jaymckee74]

Originally posted by XvoorheesX
Elektra
XXX: State of the Union
Deuce Bigelow: European Gigolo
Ice Princess
Racing Stripes

damn...i didnt think anyone would have the same list as me...probably the 6th in consideration is Are We There Yet?

[Tayzlor]

All The King's Men
Brokeback Mountain
Broken Flowers
New World, The
Untitled Steven Spielberg Project

[XvoorheesX]

One things is for damn sure. Actually, two things.

1: Christian Bale (The Machinist, Batman Begins) strongly deserves TWO best lead nominations.

2. He won't get either of them.

[ilovemovies]

Originally posted by XvoorheesX
One things is for damn sure. Actually, two things.

1: Christian Bale (The Machinist, Batman Begins) strongly deserves TWO best lead nominations.

2. He won't get either of them.

The Machinist is a 2004 movie.

[XvoorheesX]

Originally posted by ilovemovies
The Machinist is a 2004 movie.
I know it played at film festivalst, but doesn't it have to do with when (if) it gets a wide-release?

[LoomisFan]

Guess Who?
Son of the Mask
Rebound
The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lava Girl in 3-D
House of Wax

[ilovemovies]

Originally posted by XvoorheesX
I know it played at film festivalst, but doesn't it have to do with when (if) it gets a wide-release?


It had a limited release on Oct. 22, 2004.


And you guys have it all wrong. The nominees will be:

Alone in the Dark
Son of the Mask
Duece Bigalow: European Gigolo
The 40 Year Old Virgin
Big Momma's House 2

[XvoorheesX]

Originally posted by ilovemovies
And you guys have it all wrong. The nominees will be:

Alone in the Dark
Son of the Mask
Duece Bigalow: European Gigolo
The 40 Year Old Virgin
Big Momma's House 2 [/B]
I can't wait to see The 40 Year-old Virgin. But it'll probably lose out to Cinderella Man... It's all politics.

[Shockwave]

Sin City had best be on there.

It wont have a chance of winning but itd be nice to see it up there.

Its funny, but to me, Batman Begins and Sin City(both comic book movies) have had the best all around cast AND dialouge out of anything released this year so far.

[jaymckee74]

Originally posted by XvoorheesX
I know it played at film festivalst, but doesn't it have to do with when (if) it gets a wide-release?
all that matters is if it plays in L.A. and NYC before the end of the calender year to be considered for that years oscars...i remember reading a new york times last winter and I saw a Machinist ad with FYC on it so it was considered for 2004

[LegionX]

Crash
Cinderella Man
King Kong
The New World
Broken Flowers

[Donnie_Darko]

Like just about everything the get nominated...

A bunch of overhyped shit that gets released from November to December (and in some cases wide release in 2006), that the studios spend millions bribing, er... promoting to the Academy.

Crash... out of the picture, it was released "too early"... and was just too good.
Cinderella Man... possibly, cause Crowe's "people" have pull, and so does Howard.
King Kong... duh... even if it sucks... which it probably will, it'll get nommed cause the Academy LOVES Jackson right now.
Sin City... not a fucking chance. It's WAY to violent, good, cool, different and stylish to be nomminated... and, it wasn't released in December.
Batman... Noman

Now, I would LOVE the Academy to prove me wrong, and nominate Sin City... but I'm not holding my breath... and really, I hope it doesn't get nommed. I doubt Robert will stay awake the night the nominees are announced, on bated breath in hopes he gets nomintaed. He'll probably be too busy shooting/editing/recording Sin City 2, and from what I can tell about Robert, he'd be honored, but likely wouldn't really care either way.

[Briare Rabbit]

Considering Sin City is all style, and no substance, then I'd say no. It won't get nominated.

[adamjohnson]

Originally posted by Briare Rabbit
Considering Sin City is all style, and no substance, then I'd say no. It won't get nominated.

Agreed.

But Bamtan SHOULD get nominated for SOMETHING. If anything best adapted screenplay,eh?

And you know, just the thought of seeing Christain Bale at an awards show in his monkey suit just makes me smile.

"Its hot, its sweaty, and it gives me a headache... Id like to thank the Academy...."

[Shockwave]

I thought Bruce Willis was good enough for a supporting actor nod at the very least.

[XvoorheesX]

I don't think that Batman will get any serious noms just because Spiderman 2 didn't. If they were going to realize that comic movies can actually be great, they would've realized it for Spidey 2, easily one of the top five of last year.

However, my logic could go the other way. Maybe they'll realize they messed up not rewarding good comic movies last year and repay Batman with it.

[Luv_my_Movies]

Originally posted by ChemicalRomance
Sin City for one...

...please?
havent even seen it yet (gets released in australia july 14th...grrrrr) but should be nomimated to the trailer alone! and if the books are anything to go buy it would be the best movie of the year

[KyleG]

sin city won't get any major noms because it was co-directed, Rodriguez dropped out of the directors guild to make this movie and the academy doesn't like that sort of thing, at the least it might get a visual effects nom, but with Star Wars, War of the Worlds, Harry Potter, and King Kong that might not even happen

[wheresdonnie?]

Sin City also won't get nominated because it's a stylish, groundbreaking film. But don't worry, here comes Cinderella Man! Right? Right? Although I would like to see Broken Flowers and The New World do well, they look great. I suppose it's conceivable Mickey Rourke might get a nomination for Best Actor, given that it's an extraordinary performance from an actor who had an undignified fall from grace and has been working his way back up with solid supporting turns in films like Buffalo 66 and Once Upon A Time in Mexico.

[ChemicalRomance]

If KING KONG gets nominated, I'm going to be so fucking pissed. The movie looks awful from the trailer, and even if it gets rave reviews, I'm just praying it doesn't get nominated. Jackson has gotten enough praise for the extremely overrated borefests that were Lord of The Rings a.k.a. cure for insomnia.

SIN CITY being nominated is wishful thinking, especially because of how violent it is. It's defintily not a movie made to get awards, it's a movie made to give audiences a good time and show the trueness to the source material on the big screen. It'd be great to see it nominated for Best Picture, though unlikely cause it was released early and it's very brutal. I hope it at least gets a nomination for best adapted screenplay, because that script is just fucking awesome.

CRASH and CINDAERELLA MAN, both movies I haven't seen but I just have big feelings that they'll get nominated. They both look good, and they've obviously both gotten big praise. Cindarella Man is a bomb right now, but they are in talks to re-release, and they'd probably do that sometime in September, and remind the Academy it's still "there". I think that is the 1 definite Best Picture nominee right now. It's pure Oscar bait.

BATMAN BEGINS, you never know. The critical praise is outstanding, on par with Spider-Man 2 but people say Batman won't be nominated because it is a comic book movie that doesn't get taken seriously like Spider-Man 2. But Batman is a dark, more psychologically themed movie, and it isn't even geared towards kids. While Spider-Man 2 took an emotional spin on the franchise the movie was still family friendly, and more action oriented. Spider-Man 2 definitly got shunned last year, a very sad sight considering how much critics praise it and then BOOM, nothing for it when the Academy picks their nominees besides things like sound and editing. Who knows, Batman could suprise.

[PuggyD]

I really think that "The New World" is going to turn out like "Troy" or "Alexander". An overhyped history epic that no one really wants to see. And I doubt that "king Kong" is going to get a best picture nom; the trailer makes it look like a reheated period-piece take on "Jurassic Park".
And "Sin City" is indeed all style and no substance.

I'd love it if "Elizabethtown" turned out to be Oscar worthy. "Proof" is promising. "Prime" and "In Her Shoes" are kinda left-field possibilities that could be excellent. "Narnia" is a safe bet.

I personally would love to see "Shopgirl" or "Rent" be Oscar worthy, but there's still a good chance that they might suck.

[Mr. HokeyPokey]

Originally posted by ChemicalRomance
If KING KONG

SIN CITY

CRASH and CINDAERELLA MAN

BATMAN BEGINS,

You have good comments for all of those, i just have a few to add on.

King Kong - Sorry to burst your bubble but I'm betting it will get nominated. Not only that, probably win. Ever since LOTR anytime you hear the name peter jackson its like hollywood automatically thinks of greatness. I'm puzzled myself.

Sin City - I hated it, as you know. But curious as to why you think it would be "great" if it got nominated for the best picture. I mean really, do you think it is 'best picture' quality?

Crash - It better get nominated and win. It is one of the best movies i've seen in years. 10/10.

Cinderella Man - Not sure if it will get nominated just because of all the media surrounding it. The story was great, I'm pretty sure any actor could have pulled it off though. I really don't want this nominated.

Batman Begins - Even though i hated it because of Bale, I still don't see this getting nominated, not really and 'real' reason why. I just can't see it up for best picture.


ChemicalRomance, is it me or are the only movies you see are the fanboy ones? Not a personal hit, just an observation. Really I mean no dis-respect.

[KyleG]

Originally posted by PuggyD
I really think that "The New World" is going to turn out like "Troy" or "Alexander". An overhyped history epic that no one really wants to see.

yeah well theres one huge difference between those movies and The New World ... Terrence Malick

[ChemicalRomance]

Originally posted by Mr. HokeyPokey
You have good comments for all of those, i just have a few to add on.

Thank you sir.

Originally posted by Mr. HokeyPokey
ChemicalRomance, is it me or are the only movies you see are the fanboy ones? Not a personal hit, just an observation. Really I mean no dis-respect.

Heh, I dunno, I haven't really been finding a lot of time to check out old stuff. I'm checking out all the recent stuff I've been missing. Just wondering what you saw or have been seeing that made you think this.

[Fisting Ackbar]

I don't see why KING KONG would automatically get nominated for best picture. Even though Peter Jackson hit a homerun with ROTK doesn't mean the Academy "loves" him (considering it took them some time to accept the LOTR movies). Even the 1933 version wasn't nominated.

I'm betting on THE NEW WORLD, MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA, UNTITLED STEVEN SPIELBERG PROJECT and two other films we won't even hear about till December.

I was thinking ELIZABETHTOWN might stand a chance, but now I'm feeling that they won't take it as serious. CINDERELLA MAN... probably not, but maybe if Ron Howard and Brian Grazer put on a sad face. SIN CITY, BATMAN BEGINS, no chance in hell. I have no idea about CHRONICLES OF NARNIA but I have the feeling it will be too "out there" in the fantasy genre (though I haven't read the books, so feel free to correct me). BROKEN FLOWERS seems too much of an early choice, and early word on BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN (from the Cannes jury) doesn't seem to be good.

[Tayzlor]

Does anyone think Polanski's version of Oliver Twist has a chance?

Or Altman's A Prairie Home Companion, if it's released this year?

[Brando @$$ Fat]

'Walk the Line' is sure to be one

[Scarfather]

Dear Lord, there's too many to choose from

The Constant Gardener
Syriana
Everything Is Illuminated
Oliver Twist
Art School Confidential
A History of Violence
Jarhead
Walk the Line
The Fountain
A Bittersweet Romance
Memoirs of a Geisha
King Kong
All the King's Men
Vengeance
Crash
Cinderella Man

The Wild Parrots of Telegraph Hill
(It won't get Best Picture but I do hope it at least gets nominated for Best Documentry)

Howl's Moving Castle
Best Animated Feature. Trust Me.

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
No matter how shitty the movie itself is, this needs to win best art direction.

Broken Flowers

The Brothers Grimm
Call me a fanboy if you will, but Gilliam has been snubbed too many times.

Jarhead
Walk the Line
The Fountain
Memoirs of a Geisha
All the King's Men

This is how I see it being played out. If The Fountain is anywhere, even half as good as Requiem for a Dream, Mr. Aronofsky deserves the gold.

[ilovemovies]

Originally posted by KyleG
yeah well theres one huge difference between those movies and The New World ... Terrence Malick

Yeah, but Oliver Stone and Wolfgang Peterson are great filmmakers too. Though I personally loved Troy.


While King Kong will likely recieve numerous technical nominations, I don't think it will get anything more than that because it's more of a popcorn flick. Atleast, that is what it seems to me. Sure, The Lord of the Rings were fantasy, but they were big epic movies that were very emotional as well.


My real predictions:

Elizabethtown
The New World
Memoirs of a Geisha
Jarhead
Walk the Line

[Jake_Vig]

Crash
The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada (won 2 awards at Cannes)
Untitled 1972 Munich Olympics Project (Spielberg)
Jarhead (war, Jaime Foxx, Sam Mendes... no brainer)
Memoirs of a Geisha (there has to be a shitty chick filck)

[Tayzlor]

Originally posted by Jake_Vig

The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada (won 2 awards at Cannes)


Totally forgot about that one. You know how the academy loves to hand out their awards to their actors turned directors (although this one looks pretty good).

My list was paired down from about 12, and looking at Scarfather's I clearly forgot a lot.

It looks like Walk the Line could fill out the obligatory biopic slot.

[Pulp_Joker]

If these 4 are as good as they can be, then they should be shoo-ins for nominations.

Walk the Line-The academy loves bio-pics
Broken Flowers-The token indie flick
The Producers-The musical with great pedigree (ala Chicago)
All the King's Men-A political film, come on

These will be in contention at the end for the 5th spot.

Jarhead-war film
1972 Munich film-Spielberg
Memoirs of a Geisha-Foreign film
Elizabethtown (the one that looks the best)-romance film
King Kong-Peter Jackson
The New World-epic film