Friday's Estimates (9/30)

[MadsenOMC]

1) FLIGHTPLAN - $4.5 million
2) SERENITY - $3.9 million
3) CORPSE BRIDE - $2.8 million
4) HISTORY OF VIOLENCE - $2.5 million
5) INTO THE BLUE - $2.5 million
6) JUST LIKE HEAVEN - $1.9 million
7) EXORCISM OF EMILY ROSE - $1.3 million
8) GREATEST GAME EVERY PLAYED - $1.1 million
9) ROLL BOUNCE - $1 million
10) 40 YEAR OLD VIRGIN - $900,000

[MadsenOMC]

Well, I see a Friday to Saturday drop for Serenity due to the fact that all of the Whedon fanatics rushed out to see it on opening day. I imagine a $9 million weekend at best. Should be solid numbers for A History of Violence. Predictable drop for Flightplan.

[NightStalkerGtx]

serenity is this years sky captin... A piece of shit bomb

[optimus1]

Nightstalker , you make me laugh with all the hate lol. Must be fun being around you. The damn movie only cost them 40 milion to make , what was Sky Captains production costs? 70 million I believe , so step back a bit ok?

[Moviefan02000]

The biggest shock to me is the drop for CORPSE BRIDE. I was pretty sure it would hold on nicely.

Boo to FLIGHTPLAN holding on so well. I don't understand it, it had really bad word of mouth.

I knew SERENITY wouldn't do great but it did even worse than I thought it would do. That sucks.

HAHAHA at INTO THE BLUE :)

Great for A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE. It will definetely expand more next weekend.

[MadsenOMC]

Flightplan didn't really hold well though. It'll drop 50% from last weekend by the time final numbers come out Monday, or pretty close to that. And sorry optimus but I think his hate is needed to counterbalance all of the adoring Whedon and Serenity fans.

[optimus1]

What ever you say m8 , I usually reserve my hate for important things like terrorists or the dentist. A movie? LOL , nah. In the end it will make money no matter what a few people on this website say when its all said and done. Not bad for a tv show that was cancelled after 8 episodes.

[ANTBond007]

Originally posted by MadsenOMC
Well, I see a Friday to Saturday drop for Serenity due to the fact that all of the Whedon fanatics rushed out to see it on opening day. I imagine a $9 million weekend at best. Should be solid numbers for A History of Violence. Predictable drop for Flightplan.

You're giving it an extremely low multiplier for the weekend. This is pretty much a dead-on number with the $11-$13 million tracking expectations.

[NightStalkerGtx]

Well, i just got back from loews and i saw Serenity, just to see if i should step back my hate for the movie. I dont believe any of this bullshit that theaters were packed. There was about 6 people in that theater with me. As for the movie although not as bad as sky captin it still wasnt good either, its still a piece of crap in my eyes.
Serenity- Piece of crap
Sky captin- Bigger piece of crap

[optimus1]

It could have been frackin casablanca and you would have said it sucks..pardon us if we stick your review into the troll bin. Thx though for adding some cash to the final totals :)

[NightStalkerGtx]

if it was casa blanca it would suck to not as much but still suck.
I didnt put my cash in for that movie i put my cash in The 40 year old virgin just sneaked in and saw serenity instead.

[optimus1]

Its ok Night , there will be more firefly theres nothing you can do to stop it..nothing..and there will be a spike movie , more Angel , a Buffy movie etc..you can't stop the whedonites , so live with it :D

[NightStalkerGtx]

im not tryin to stop em and what are you saying that were are going to have atleast 3 more shitfests movies headed our way:rolleyes:

[MadsenOMC]

Originally posted by ANTBond007
You're giving it an extremely low multiplier for the weekend. This is pretty much a dead-on number with the $11-$13 million tracking expectations.

That's because it will have an extremely low multiplier.

[optimus1]

LOL shitfests. Can any of us really take your movie opinions seriously when your favorite quote is "stay cool hunny bunny" :rolleyes:

[NightStalkerGtx]

i dont really see why my fav movie quote has anything to do with this. i could care less if u take my opinion seriously or not.

[Lazy Boy]

Originally posted by optimus1
LOL shitfests. Can any of us really take your movie opinions seriously when your favorite quote is "stay cool hunny bunny" :rolleyes:

Do you even know from what movie that quote is? And what does that have to do with opinions?

[optimus1]

I was joking

[NightStalkerGtx]

im sure you were, anyways im checking out History of Violence tonight at a 9:55 show. I hope those numbers mean something.

[optimus1]

Did you read madsens review on it , my friend went to see it and he sorta liked it so to each his own I guess.

[Jon Lyrik]

WTF? :confused:

[Moviefan02000]

Can you guys get back to talking about the Friday estimates. If you need to talk about SERENITY or fight about the box office or the movie, go into the SERENITY thread.

[NightStalkerGtx]

Got Back from A History of violence and i must say it was amazing and hope it holds up well at the boxoffice

[Lazy Boy]

While not amazing, A History of Violence is still worthy of more discussion than the semantics of whether or not Serenity will be a hit. I'm already sick of that movie, and I haven't even seen it yet.

[Buck Turgidson]

Originally posted by ANTBond007
You're giving it an extremely low multiplier for the weekend. This is pretty much a dead-on number with the $11-$13 million tracking expectations.

BoxOfficeMojo had it predicted for @ $16 Mil. It's going to have to kick it up a lot to get there.

[NightStalkerGtx]

when i saw history of violence it was more packed then serenity, I think history of violence will hold up better then serenity and pass serenitys domestic gross.

[optimus1]

I agree it probably will especially when they give it more theaters. You would think it would not even be close what with Viggo being in it and a few other big stars like Ed Harris and a naked Maria Bello :cool:

[XCoRyX]

Wow...Into The Blue didn't do so well at all.

[MadsenOMC]

Weekend Estimates:

1) FLIGHTPLAN - $15 million (-38.9%)
2) SERENITY - $10.1 million
3) CORPSE BRIDE - $9.7 million (-49%)
4) HISTORY OF VIOLENCE - $8.2 million
5) INTO THE BLUE - $7 million
6) JUST LIKE HEAVEN - $6.1 million (-36.6%)
7) EXORCISM OF EMILY ROSE - $4.4 million (-40.9%)
8) ROLL BOUNCE - $4 million (-46.8%)
9) GREATEST GAME EVER PLAYED - $3.7 million
10) 40 YEAR OLD VIRGIN - $3.1 million (-27.8%)


Wow. Think Serenity has bad word of mouth? A $4 million first day leads to only $10 million for the entire weekend. Looks like some people around here were wrong.

[Moviefan02000]

It's not bad word of mouth, it's just frontloaded.

[optimus1]

Yes most likely it was front ended..but I predicted 12 million and its going to be around 10 so I wasn't too far off..I will be interested to see what happens in the next 2 weeks but certainly its not looking good.

[MadsenOMC]

Originally posted by Moviefan02000
It's not bad word of mouth, it's just frontloaded.

That is bullshit. A complete contradiction. Bad word of mouth is the result of a frontloaded movie. If it had good word of mouth, it would not be frontloaded. If it had good word of mouth, it wouldn't drop from Friday to Saturday. And you can bet that it will drop by at least 50% next weekend, if not more. That, my friend, is bad word of mouth. Spin it any way you want, but that's what it is.

[NightStalkerGtx]

^^^^^^^^^^ Damn right!

[slasherfan]

I don't know, pretty much everything I've read on Serenity has been very positive, on other message boards people are telling others to see it.

[NightStalkerGtx]

If they are told to see it, but they dont. That really doesnt matter and besides people on the boards (at joblo comingsoon.net, counting down and etc j dont even make up about 10% of the amount of people that went to see it.

[MadsenOMC]

Yes, most reviews have been positive, and yes, most people seem to like it. But that is not translating into good word of mouth. People outside of the fan base are not being convinced to see it. It is not appealing to anyone outside of Firefly's and Whedon's fan base. The numbers tell the story. It's not the first time that a movie received good reviews and good audience response, but didn't carry those over into good word of mouth.

[Psychocandy]

Originally posted by slasherfan
I don't know, pretty much everything I've read on Serenity has been very positive, on other message boards people are telling others to see it.

Yeah...as I mentioned in my post over on the Serenity discussion thread the critical response in the UK has been overwhelmingly positive. I've yet to see a single bad review. What i'd like to know is this. Why are certain schmoes getting obvious pleasure out of the movie bombing? I could understand this if the movie was really bad (I haven't seen it but if it was as bad as some schmoes are suggesting it surely would have been met with the aforementioned level of critical praise in the UK). Weird.

[EDsoulsurvive*]

I don't know if it's bad word of mouth as much as it was all diehard fans seeing it opening day. The movie just doesnt look appealing to most people (hence the 10 million openning) and the ones who wanted to see it rushed out on friday. that doesnt necessarily mean bad word of mouth. alot of genre movies have bigger friday takes than on saturday, word of mouth has little to do with it. For example, just look at Amityville Horror and Saw. Both had FRi-Sat drops and great legs. Sure these are horror movies, but i think the same concepts could apply to Serenity. Now don't get me wrong, Serenity could have a big drop next weekend, but i think its a little premature to say it has bad word of mouth.

[MadsenOMC]

Originally posted by EDsoulsurvive*
For example, just look at Amityville Horror and Saw. Both had FRi-Sat drops and great legs.

But you are 100% incorrect here. Saw and Amityville Horror did not have great legs. Saw made almost exactly three times its opening weekend gross. Amityville Horror ended up making less than three times its opening weekend gross. Those are very poor multipliers and and examples of weak legs, not strong. If Serenty makes three times its opening weekend gross and ends up making $30 million domestic, that will signify weak legs. And it may be like Amityville Horror and make even less than three times its opening weekend, something closer to $25 million. Not good at all.

[NightStalkerGtx]

Theres a lot of critics out there, but just cuz they say its good doesnt mean the movie has good word of mouth serenity is having badword of mouth, there is no excuse for not beating flight plan when that has its share of bad word of mouth and on top of that getting a less PTA then a history of violence which less people aware that a history of violence is even out there. I dont no one single person in my school who has seen the movie or has any plans to see it.

[optimus1]

Its unfortunate but the reason people will be happy to see it not do well is certain fans of niche shows are a little off the wall with their praise for their beloved show..it tends to irk people and then they want to see those fans become unhappy and then they can say that I told you so. I can understand it I guess..its of no matter to me , because I am not a crazy fan its only a movie to me , im not fucking Kaylee and all the stars of the movie and Joss are rich as hell no matter how well the movie does. I think it was a bad move to make a movie out of a failed tv show..when they seen dvd sales were great they should have done something on tv again that would warrant more dvds and not taken such a huge risk. I believe that this movie does add to the fan base and will sell a ton of dvds..I am sure a lot of people will say I don't know the back story and I will wait to rent the dvd or buy it after I see the season series dvd sometime down the road. Whatever , im done talking about it till I see final world wide totals and even then it won't be here as no one gives a flying crap lol.

[NightStalkerGtx]

Also AmityVille and Saw appealed to more pople and the trailers look promising. They didnt look like a two hour long spaceship battle.

[EDsoulsurvive*]

I wasn't talking about the appeal, I was talking about their grosses. Madsen you honestly think those movies had weak legs?? I know we're not talking about The Ring or March of the Penguins or anything but considering the movies, those were solid legs. Most films of their kind crash and burn after opening weekend........ And to bring it all back on topic, who know's how Serenity will fare in the coming weeks

[MadsenOMC]

I don't think those movies had weak legs. They did have weak legs. I already explained this in black and white. The numbers tell the story. A multiplier of three or less is not good. Simple as that. What is so hard to understand about that? And it is easy to predict how Serenity will do in the coming weeks. $30 million is as good as it will get. optimus, I am not sitting here doing jumping jacks because of Serenity's opening weekend. I didn't pray that it would fail. I always tried to keep the argument centered on how I felt it would perform at the box office, and nothing else.

[ANTBond007]

I'll concede that Madsen was right about Serenity's sub-$10m opening. Universal's giving it an incredibly generous Sunday drop to push it over $10,000,000.

[NightStalkerGtx]

appeal has to do with grosses, if i movie has no appeal it wont get a lot of people in and wont make money, but saw and amityville appealed to more people outside of the horror genre causing it to make more money.

[Lazy Boy]

Whoops, didn't read that you posted them, Madsen, sorry.

[NightStalkerGtx]

The 40 year old virgin passed the 100 million mark!!!!!!!!!

[MadsenOMC]

Not a big deal, but I had already posted the weekend estimates.

[optimus1]

Madsen I wasn't speaking of you , if you go on other sites there are real haters out there lol who are just in heaven right now..like I said I can't blame them in a way as I do see what some fanatics do when they defend their favorite show. Not that I think your sad or anything as I know there is a part of you thats happy it wasn't a blockbuster as some of your replies in this or the other thread did mention whedons fans or I guess some of you guys were wrong etc.. so I know theres a part of you that feels ok that fans of firefly are proven wrong about how well the movie would do. This hurts a lot less to me then what happened to Nemesis ( which did suck ) and the Star Trek franchise..trust me Im a huge Star Trek fan and I only hope that next rumored movie people are talking about doesn't get made because that moron Rick Berman is still attached to it and he is like an anchor around that franchise's neck.

[MadsenOMC]

Well sure I'm happy that I was fairly accurate in predicting how it would do at the box office, but as I said before, I certainly don't hate Whedon's fans or Whedon, and I'm not leaping for joy because of how it did this weekend.

[CyclicNightmare]

Originally posted by MadsenOMC
I don't think those movies had weak legs. They did have weak legs. I already explained this in black and white. The numbers tell the story. A multiplier of three or less is not good. Simple as that. What is so hard to understand about that?
Box Office trends have changed over the past few years. Movies have become increasingly front loaded to the point that a movie which has a multiplier of 3 or higher is a success. It's not spectacular, but its not bad either. By the same token, Serenity is going to need a multipler MUCH bigger than 3 to be considered successful and I just don't see that happening.

[Moviefan02000]

I'm so fucking tired of all this SERENITY talk! I thought it looked like a fun movie, nothing more. I knew it wouldn't do much, I don't know why it's so shocking to some of you. The fanbase is small and it looked way too weird and quirky for it's own good. I'm supposed to see it tomorrow but I don't know if I want to, I'm just sick of the fucking movie :p

[EDsoulsurvive*]

I agree let's move on to Waiting's possibilites... and I stand by my assessment that both amityville and saw had strong legs.

[MadsenOMC]

Originally posted by EDsoulsurvive*
I agree let's move on to Waiting's possibilites... and I stand by my assessment that both amityville and saw had strong legs.

Waiting is going to fare poorly. Please supply evidence to support your claim that Saw and Amityville had strong legs. I already supplied mine. Multipliers of 3 (Saw) or less than 3 (Amityville). Not good. OK at the very best. But certainly not anywhere near good/strong. I think you may be confusing second weekend drop with good legs. Saw and Amityville dropped less than 50% their second weekend, which is better than usual for the genre. But you have to look at the opening weekend number and the final box office total, not the second weekend drop. That is what determines a movie's legs. Therefore, those two movies did not have strong legs. If you don't want to do it here, then PM me.