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someguy 10-26-2012 09:16 PM

Let's talk electoral college
 
DISCLAIMER: This thread isn't about your opinions on the candidates, their parties, etc. We'll discuss ways that Romney and Obama can win the 270+ electoral votes required to become president. This thread is for strategy talk only.

Here's a nice interactive map where you can play out different election scenarios: www.270towin.com

According to 270 to win (and Real Clear Politics too I think) the current electoral votes that are locks for Obama and Romney are:

Obama 201
Romney 191

And the swing states are:

New Hampshire (4)
Nevada (6)
Iowa (6)
Colorado (9)
Wisconsin (10)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
Michigan (16)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Florida (29)

Here are some sites that have their own polls or collect polling data:

Real Clear Politics (collects polls from various organizations and shows an overall average) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/

Gallup www.gallup.com

Rasmussen www.rasmussenreports.com

PPP Polls http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

Five Thirty Eight (Nate Silver, who correctly predicted the outcome of 49 out of 50 states in 2008, uses all relevant polling data he can find to accurately predict the outcome of the election including senate races) http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

My personal guess as of right now: Obama still has the math in his favour. MI, PA, IA, WI and OH have had Obama ahead consistently since the start of the election and Obama had a lot of excellent news coming out of Ohio today with almost every poll giving him a lead over Romney. Winning those 5 states will put him over 270.

Romney's path is a lot tougher but it's plausible. Virginia, Florida and North Carolina are looking more and more like they'll go red which would bump Romney up to 248. All he would need at that point is Ohio and one other swing state, or Wisconsin/Colorado/New Hampshire (or Iowa even but Obama already has a huge advantage there so it's not likely). Romney's gonna have a harder time than Obama when it comes to reaching 270, but it's not impossible.

Here's my current prediction (which is subject to change at any time, I'm not saying this WILL happen it's just how I currently feel things will turn out)

http://i.imgur.com/PGhCY.jpg

Does anyone know if there's a likelihood that Obama could win the EV but lose the popular vote? I haven't really paid attention to the popular vote so I don't want to make any predictions on that.

Jim Colyer 10-30-2012 06:29 PM

I think Romney will get 270-plus.

Erroneous 10-30-2012 09:01 PM

I believe the recent storm is going to hurt voting in several northeastern states. I can't who it might favor, but I think voter turnout is going to be hurt.

someguy 10-31-2012 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jim Colyer (Post 3618639)
I think Romney will get 270-plus.

Care to explain how?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Erroneous (Post 3618681)
I believe the recent storm is going to hurt voting in several northeastern states. I can't who it might favor, but I think voter turnout is going to be hurt.

Yeah Sandy is gonna take a hit on the eastern states but it doesn't look like the impact will be big enough to swing one state over to another side. NY and NJ are heavily favoured for Obama anyways, and PA wasn't impacted too much by the storm to make a huge difference on turnout.

How bad was the damage in Virginia?

AceD 10-31-2012 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by someguy (Post 3616919)
Does anyone know if there's a likelihood that Obama could win the EV but lose the popular vote? I haven't really paid attention to the popular vote so I don't want to make any predictions on that.

I have read a few places that think it's very possible. As your disclaimer stated this is not an opinion simply what some are saying... Romney needs to destroy Obama with the white vote (something McCain just about did and still won the white majority). There's some talk that some "traditional" black voters who were 100% in Obama's camp are retreating do to his stance on using the Bible to support his gay marriage stance, and that some of those voters are now 50/50 or not going to vote at all. It can't be overstated how well Obama's team did in '08 at getting historic non-voters to vote, and there's a feeling in some circles that there are a lot of people disillusioned enough by Obama but not ready to vote for anyone else. Ultimately non-voters and third-party voters still probably help Obama, but the margin is legitimately closer.

Someguy, have you read the speculation that the EC could end in an exact tie? It's not likely but certainly possible... in which case the House elects the president (in a straight-up vote, no extra points for bigger states) and the Senate elects the VP. Which would likely mean 4 years of Romney-Biden. Can you imagine? Oy.

I love this sort of strategy talk and would love to here Mr Coyler's plan to get Romney to 270.

All of your storm thoughts I agree with, with the same question about Virginia. Ultimately, it probably really does come down to Ohio. If Obama wins that his lead becomes fairly insurmountable.

Brando @$$ Fat 10-31-2012 11:25 AM

I see the electoral college as too much of an uphill battle for Romney. It'd be one thing if the toss-up states were traditionally Republican, but they're not really. I think Obama will take Virginia and NH, which will be enough to win. I see him falling just below 300, which will be a lot less impressive than his win in 2008. A win's a win, though.

someguy 11-01-2012 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceD (Post 3618900)
Someguy, have you read the speculation that the EC could end in an exact tie? It's not likely but certainly possible... in which case the House elects the president (in a straight-up vote, no extra points for bigger states) and the Senate elects the VP. Which would likely mean 4 years of Romney-Biden. Can you imagine? Oy.

There was a very (VERY) brief moment where this was considered but the chances are really small. PA and MI appear to be safe for Obama, so at that point all he needs is IA, NV and OH (all of which have Obama ahead in the polls). I take the 'never say never' route myself on things but the chances of a tie happening are incredibly low.

What I think will be interesting about this election is how much of an impact Obama's ground game makes on the results. States like NC and FL appear to have a decent Romney lead (up until today at least) but some people are arguing that Obama's strength on the ground is being underestimated. If NC ends up flipping for Obama (which I think is unlikely but we'll see) it'll be a testament to how well the Democrats have mastered their campaigning.

As for the popular vote it looks unlikely that Obama will lose to Romney there. My biggest concern was that the turnout in the south would be high enough to get Romney over the top in PV but after looking into it that doesn't look like it'll happen.

It was a pretty terrible day for Romney polling-wise. Obama was up or tied in pretty much every swing state poll, and it looks like Romney's bounce from the 1st debate has mostly eroded. The storm could have had an impact on this but it's hard to tell. Either way Obama supporters are starting to feel pretty comfortable about Tuesday night.

Jim Colyer 11-01-2012 04:17 PM

MITT ROMNEY 270
All of you who love this country, let's roll! Mitt Romney needs 270 electoral votes. Let's give them to him. We need a president who reflects what America is, and Mitt Romney is the man. There are 538 votes in the Electoral College. Romney needs a majority. 270 will put him in the White House. Let's go!

someguy 11-01-2012 05:15 PM

Take that to a different thread.

If you think Romney will get 270 show/tell us how.

Jim Colyer 11-01-2012 11:12 PM

Romney is pushing into Democratic territories like Pennsylvania. They keep talking about "battleground states" like Ohio, Virginia and Florida. It may be close. Romney should get the popular vote with no trouble. I believe he will win the electoral college by a small margin. November 6 is coming fast.

someguy 11-02-2012 06:58 PM

The national polls are starting to reflect the state polls now, Obama's starting to take the lead.

As Nate Silver puts it on his site, the argument for Obama is simple: he's leading in Ohio with a margin that all but guarantees a victory (his lead in polls is about 2 points, and usually anyone with a lead that big in OH ends up winning the state). Going by the polls the question now might be by how much will Romney lose.

Jim Colyer 11-02-2012 07:16 PM

I think people have known whom they are voting for ever since the night Romney got the Republican nomination. Hard to believe that in an election as polarized as this that anyone could still be undecided. Obama has no plan for a second term except to continue what he has done up to now, and that is to try to reduce America to Third World status. I'll admit it is hard even for Romney to say what his policies are before taking office because the world is constantly changing. Policies evolve as time goes on. It is natural for Democrats to lead in the early voting. They are an impetuous lot. Republicans, however, being more conservative, tend to wait until election day. It shows their discipline and restraint. Mitt Romney has been coming from behind since 2007. This year, he rose to the occasion by overtaking Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum. Hmm... Santorum. That's a name I nearly forgot. So Romney still has the momentum (Mittmentum, they call it) as things come to a point. In 4 nights, we will know. My bet is that Romney will overtake his final opponent in the end as he overtook his rivals in the primaries. Years from now, the Obama Interlude will be a question in the latest version of trivial pursuit.

someguy 11-03-2012 04:30 PM

It's almost certain that Obama will win. The NYT did a nice little interactive feature that shows the paths Romney and Obama need to win the 9 remaining swing states. Obama has 431 ways to win, while Romney only has 76.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...ite-house.html

jeo4 11-04-2012 12:14 PM

I've seen Missouri swing back and forth in past races, so I'm not sure it's a given that they will vote Republican. Until 2008, Missouri had voted for the winning candidate over the past several elections. Chances are there will be enough white conservative Americans to swing the state toward Romney, but I wouldn't consider it a solid pick. Still, the vote tends to be conservative.

I think your map above is a close prediction of the outcome, except that I believe Colorado and Virginia could both wind up being democratic as well. Even if both states sway to the Republican side, I don't see Pennsylvania doing so.

Based on those predictions, I could see President Obama winning by just about five to six percent of the popular vote, or somewhere between 291 electoral votes and 302 electoral votes.

Bondgirl 11-04-2012 06:22 PM

Well on the news yesterday morning they were talking about Electral college

the system you have in America
Grins do you know l thought it was aplace where you went to school to get a edcation lol

But it was explained yesterday on waht it is

I never knew that it is the electral college that picks the president of has a say by votes

also they say that this type of voting you have in America is primative way and very diffrent to the way Australia would elect a primeminister

So is that thw way they do this and being a aussie l find this way of electing someone very confusing

Jim Colyer 11-04-2012 06:29 PM

The Dems are corrupt. They are Godless thieves who believe in nothing. They think that men should have sex with other men and that unborn babies should be ripped from their mothers' wombs. Dems have no respect for anything or anybody. Clinton and obama are the sleaziest men on the planet. If Hillary had the slightest bit of self-respect, she would have divorced him years ago.

someguy 11-04-2012 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jim Colyer (Post 3620492)
The Dems are corrupt. They are Godless thieves who believe in nothing. They think that men should have sex with other men and that unborn babies should be ripped from their mothers' wombs. Dems have no respect for anything or anybody. Clinton and obama are the sleaziest men on the planet. If Hillary had the slightest bit of self-respect, she would have divorced him years ago.

DISCLAIMER: This thread isn't about your opinions on the candidates, their parties, etc. We'll discuss ways that Romney and Obama can win the 270+ electoral votes required to become president. This thread is for strategy talk only.

Bondgirl 11-04-2012 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jim Colyer (Post 3620492)
The Dems are corrupt. They are Godless thieves who believe in nothing. They think that men should have sex with other men and that unborn babies should be ripped from their mothers' wombs. Dems have no respect for anything or anybody. Clinton and obama are the sleaziest men on the planet. If Hillary had the slightest bit of self-respect, she would have divorced him years ago.

Well l know different partys have diffrent ideas in how they want to run a country but l think whatt you are saying wouldnt be put through and you would have to go hrough congress to have things voted in

Jim Colyer 11-04-2012 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bondgirl (Post 3620506)
Well l know differnet partys have diffrent ideas in how they want to run a country but l think waht you are saying wouldnt be put through and you would ahve to go hrough congress to have things voted in

I am independent and have voted both ways. This is an important election, and I am campaigning for Mitt Romney.

You saw him at my site.

Bondgirl 11-04-2012 07:50 PM

yes l have seen Mitt On your site and there is alot of imformation on waht you think of him

I have some veiws but l think l will wait to see who gets voted in and it will be interesting to see who will do abetter job

Also alot of poitions will bullshit about how they will do better but sometimes when the time comes nothing is really done

But all l can say l will be watching on the side lines in Australia to see waht happens and see who will do a better job at helping the ecomony and helping the American poeple

jeo4 11-04-2012 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by someguy (Post 3620501)
DISCLAIMER: This thread isn't about your opinions on the candidates, their parties, etc. We'll discuss ways that Romney and Obama can win the 270+ electoral votes required to become president. This thread is for strategy talk only.

I was just checking to see if this disclaimer was still here, since it seems to be getting ignored completely.

Bondgirl 11-04-2012 07:59 PM

Sorry if l might have gone off track

I will refrain from posting in here until l have something to say about the subject

Jim Colyer 11-04-2012 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bondgirl (Post 3620520)
Sorry if l might have gone off track

I think it is about time we go back to waht this thread was about that is electral college

Mitt Romney needs 270 electoral votes to become the next preident. Red states are Republican.

The Electoral College has 538 votes.

•Alabama - 9
•Alaska - 3
•Arizona - 11
•Arkansas - 6
•California - 55
•Colorado - 9
•Connecticut - 7
•Delaware - 3
•District of Columbia - 3
•Florida - 29
•Georgia - 16
•Hawaii - 4
•Idaho - 4
•Illinois - 20
•Indiana - 11
•Iowa - 6
•Kansas - 6
•Kentucky - 8
•Louisiana - 8
•Maine - 4
•Maryland - 10
•Massachusetts - 11
•Michigan - 16
•Minnesota - 10
•Mississippi - 6
•Missouri - 10
•Montana - 3
•Nebraska - 5
•Nevada - 6
•New Hampshire - 4
•New Jersey - 14
•New Mexico - 5
•New York - 29
•North Carolina - 15
•North Dakota - 3
•Ohio - 18
•Oklahoma - 7
•Oregon - 7
•Pennsylvania - 20
•Rhode Island - 4
•South Carolina - 9
•South Dakota - 3
•Tennessee - 11
•Texas - 38
•Utah - 6
•Vermont - 3
•Virginia - 13
•Washington - 12
•West Virginia - 5
•Wisconsin - 10
•Wyoming - 3

Bondgirl 11-04-2012 08:13 PM

I have heard that Mitt and Obama are around the same level in votes if we go through the electral college system

i think l heard that MItt was in the low 2oo's and Omama was just in the lead

it would be interesting to get the right numbers on who has what because l am sure l a not correct in the numbers l have given

Jim Colyer 11-04-2012 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bondgirl (Post 3620524)
I have heard that Mitt and Obama are around the same level in votes if we go through the electral college system

i think l heard that MItt was in the low 2oo's and Omama was just in the lead

it would be interesting to get the right numbers on who has what because l am sure l a not correct in the numbers l have given

It is close. We will know Tuesday night.

someguy 11-05-2012 01:33 AM

It's not close anymore. All the state polls show Obama with a steady lead in more than enough states to give him 270 votes, and there isn't enough time for Romney to turn the numbers around.

Jim Colyer 11-05-2012 05:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by someguy (Post 3620642)
It's not close anymore. All the state polls show Obama with a steady lead in more than enough states to give him 270 votes, and there isn't enough time for Romney to turn the numbers around.

NOT TRUE. It is virtually neck and neck at this moment. Most Republicans will wait until election day to vote. On November 6, we will see Mitt Romney surge ahead and win the White House.

someguy 11-05-2012 10:42 AM

Point me in the direction where Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio are neck and neck in the polls.

Gordon 11-05-2012 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by someguy (Post 3620673)
Point me in the direction where Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio are neck and neck in the polls.

www.foxnews.com


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