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thompsoncory 01-24-2004 12:59 PM

Box Office Predictions Thread
 
I thought instead of just posting more and more prediction threads, I would start one that everyone could post in weekly to state their predictions. I hope this works well...

Anyways, here are the new releases for the weekend of January 30th, 2004:

OPENING

The Big Bounce (Owen Wilson, Morgan Freeman)
The Perfect Score (Erika Christensen, Scarlett Johansson)
You Got Served (Marques Houston, Jarell Houston)

EXPANDING

Master & Commander (Russell Crowe, Paul Bettany)
Monster (Charlize Theron, Christina Ricci)
Girl With A Pearl Earring (Colin Firth, Scarlett Johansson)

SNEAK PREVIEWS

Miracle (Kurt Russell, Patricia Clarkson)

--------------------------------

The estimated theater counts are as follows:

The Big Bounce - 2,200+ theaters
The Perfect Score - 2,200 theaters
You Got Served - 1,800+ theaters
Master & Commander - 850 theaters
Monster - 370 theaters
Girl With A Pearl Earring - 350+ theaters
Miracle (Sneak Preview) - 1,000 theaters on 1/31/04

-------------------

Feel free to post your predictions and/or comments about the box office next weekend.

thompsoncory 01-24-2004 01:01 PM

EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEW RELEASES

The Big Bounce - $12 million
The Perfect Score - $11 million
You Got Served - $6 million

EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR THE FILMS EXPANDING

Master & Commander - $3 million
Monster - $2 million
Girl With A Pearl Earring - $1.2 million

Damned Martian 01-24-2004 04:26 PM

EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEW RELEASES

The Big Bounce - $13 million
The Perfect Score - $14 million
You Got Served - $4 million

EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR THE FILMS EXPANDING

Master & Commander - $2.7 million
Monster - $1.7 million
Girl With A Pearl Earring - $1 million

Judge_Smails 01-25-2004 03:17 AM

Remember that this Sunday is the Super Bowl, which usually impacts overall cinema attendance. Although a New England / Carolina game might not keep as many people at home as, for example, a Dallas / Pittsburgh type game would.

Just a thought.

paul 01-25-2004 08:32 AM

The Big Bounce - $11 million
The Perfect Score - $16 million
You Got Served - $7 million

EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR THE FILMS EXPANDING

Master & Commander - $2 million
Monster - $3 million
Girl With A Pearl Earring - $1 million

Jon Lyrik 01-25-2004 10:24 AM

The Perfect Score-$13.5 million
The Big Bounce-$14 million
You Got Served-$5 million
Master and Commander-$1.2 million
Monster-$2 million
Girl With A Pearl Earring-$1.3 million

Kastman 01-25-2004 10:34 AM

Why the shitting crap hole is master and commander exapnding?

Jon Lyrik 01-25-2004 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Kastman
Why the shitting crap hole is master and commander exapnding?
I was wondering that too. It ran its course and it isn't gonna win anything.

Mike 01-25-2004 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Judge_Smails
Remember that this Sunday is the Super Bowl, which usually impacts overall cinema attendance. Although a New England / Carolina game might not keep as many people at home as, for example, a Dallas / Pittsburgh type game would.

Just a thought.

Yep, you're absolutely right. It does have an impact on the Box Office. Plus, for movie fans, the Golden Globes are on tonight, which could keep a lot of them home.


Anyway, here's the new estimated theater counts:

THE BIG BOUNCE - 2,400
THE PERFECT SCORE - 2,200
YOU GOT SERVED - 1,800+
MASTER & COMMANDER - 850
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING - 400+



I wonder how the Golden Globe wins will affect the Box Office next weekend. Hopefully it gives a good boost to a lot of movies.

Damned Martian 01-25-2004 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Kastman
Why the shitting crap hole is master and commander exapnding?
Because it will get between 5 and 10* Oscar nominations?


*(depending on if it's finally nominated for Best Picture or not)

Mike 01-25-2004 10:16 PM

YAY! MONSTER is going into 530+ theaters next weekend. Pleeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaasssse come to me! If it does, you bet your ass I'll be seeing MONSTER ;).

Mike 01-26-2004 09:19 PM

THE PERFECT SCORE - 9.7 MILLION
YOU GOT SERVED - 7.7 MILLION
THE BIG BOUNCE - 7.2 MILLION

MONSTER - 3 MILLION

Moviefan1234 01-27-2004 12:14 AM

The Big Bounce - $13 million
The Perfect Score - $9 million
You Got Served - $5 million

Frank the Tank 01-27-2004 10:20 AM

The Big Bounce - 9 million
The Perfect Score - 13 million
You Got Served - 4 million

MadsenOMC 01-27-2004 02:29 PM

Perfect Score- $10 million
Big Bounce- $6 million

MadsenOMC 01-27-2004 02:30 PM

I see a lot of $10-14 million predictions for The Perfect Score and The Big Bounce. Is there really that much interest in either of these? I don't get that feeling. Don't they scream rental, as opposed to, I gotta go see this in the theater? I don't know of anyone that wants to see either one. With the Super Bowl and possibly continued bad weather (which there is where I live), I sense a very lackluster weekend at the box office. I can't see both Bounce and Score opening with $10 million or more. One, maybe, but not both.

Mike 01-27-2004 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by MadsenOMC
I see a lot of $10-14 million predictions for The Perfect Score and The Big Bounce. Is there really that much interest in either of these? I don't get that feeling. Don't they scream rental, as opposed to, I gotta go see this in the theater? I don't know of anyone that wants to see either one. With the Super Bowl and possibly continued bad weather (which there is where I live), I sense a very lackluster weekend at the box office. I can't see both Bounce and Score opening with $10 million or more. One, maybe, but not both.
I agree! The one I definitely don't see doing that great of business, and even 5-6 Million is possible, is BOUNCE. I just have a feeling it won't do well, but will do better on video. I don't think either will open with more than 10 Million, and if one does, it will be The Perfect Score.

Frank the Tank 01-28-2004 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by MadsenOMC
I don't know of anyone that wants to see either one. With the Super Bowl and possibly continued bad weather (which there is where I live),
Holy Shit!! I forgot that the Super Bowl even existed for a second there, Here are my revised predictions.

The Perfect Score - 9 million
The Big Bounce - 6 million
You Got Served - 2 million

thompsoncory 01-28-2004 10:27 PM

Official Theater Counts for 1/30/04

NEW

The Big Bounce (Warner Bros.) / 2,304

The Perfect Score (Paramount) / 2,208

You Got Served (Sony / Screen Gems) / 1,933

EXPANDING

Mystic River (Warner Bros.) / 1,370 (+43)

Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World (Fox) / 1,117 (+882)

Lost in Translation (Focus) / est. 600+ (+243) / 21

Monster (Newmarket) / est. 600+ (+270)

Girl with a Pearl Earring (Lions Gate) / est. 400+ (+328)

City of God (Miramax) / est. 200 (+196)

SNEAK PREVIEWS

Miracle (Disney) / est. 1,000 sneaks on 1/31 (opens 2/6)

Christoph 01-28-2004 10:48 PM

Remember this: SUPERBOWL WEEKEND. You practicall have 50% less of what you usally have anyother sunday.

Mike 01-29-2004 10:32 AM

This is from Box Office Guru:

THIS WEEKEND Three new releases hit the box office and a handful of key Oscar nominees expand into more theaters during a frame that will see depressed sales on Sunday due to the Super Bowl.

Six high school students plan a heist to steal the answers to the S.A.T. in Paramount's new teen pic The Perfect Score. Directed by Brian Robbins (Varsity Blues, Hardball), the PG-13 film is produced by MTV Films and has the promotional support of the music network behind it. Because of the subject matter, few patrons past college age will be showing up. After critically-acclaimed turns in Lost in Translation and Girl with a Pearl Earring, Scarlett Johansson takes a new route playing a rebellious teen in Score. Erika Christensen (Traffic) also stars in the comedic drama alongside male actors who are mostly unknown. The concept is certainly intriguing for the target audience. Competition from The Butterfly Effect, You Got Served, and of course the Patriots-Panthers game will keep teens and young adults choosing between multiple options. Breaking into 2,208 theaters, The Perfect Score might open to about $10M this weekend.

Owen Wilson, Morgan Freeman, Gary Sinise, Charlie Sheen, and newcomer Sara Foster star in the Hawaii-set caper comedy The Big Bounce. Directed by George Armitage (Grosse Pointe Blank, Miami Blues), the PG-13 film will draw in adults with its cast and con man storyline. Though the cast includes some notable names, there is no cohesive feeling that makes it appealing to audiences. Wilson is the anchor but is not enough of a leading man to pull in large crowds. Commercials and trailers make the Warner Bros. film look like the standard underworld comedy with no real plot hitting home. The Big Bounce will debut in 2,304 theaters this weekend and should collect around $7M over three days.

Two decades after the classics Breakin' and Beat Street, street dancing returns to the big screen with a modern twist in You Got Served from Sony's Screen Gems unit. The members of the R&B group B2K star as youths who must compete in a dance competition in order to open their own hip hop dance and recording studio. Comedian Steve Harvey also stars. With its music, dancing, attitude, and title, the PG-13 film aims directly for today's urban youth. Starpower is a gamble since there are no proven draws in the cast. Openings for recent urban-skewing films include $12.9M for last month's Honey, $6.3M for the Harvey starrer Love Dont Cost A Thing, $7.5M for the comedy My Baby's Daddy, and $10M for the actioner Torque. Served may fall into the lower end of that range and find a bigger audience on home video when schools get out this summer. Opening in 1,933 theaters, You Got Served might find itself with about $7M this weekend.

On the day before the Super Bowl, Buena Vista will offer Saturday sneak previews for the sports drama Miracle which finds Kurt Russell as the United States Olympic hockey coach who leads his team to the gold medal in the 1980 games against arch rival the U.S.S.R. The studio is banking on sports lovers to see the film and then quickly spread positive buzz the next day when they gather with other sports fans for the big telecast from Houston. Miracle launches nationwide next Friday, February 6, in about 2,500 theaters.

Ashton Kutcher enjoyed a solid top spot debut last weekend with The Butterfly Effect. New releases this weekend also target teens and young adults so a 40% drop would leave the New Line thriller with $10M for the frame and $32M after ten days. Universal's romantic comedy Along Came Polly should hold up a bit better and dip 35% to $10.5M boosting the cume to $67M.

With a towering eleven Academy Award nominations (more than any other film) and four Golden Globe awards including Best Picture - Drama, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King will try to capitalize on its front-runner status this weekend hoping to lure the few who still have not joined the journey to Mount Doom. A 25% decline would give the Peter Jackson epic $5M for the weekend and lift its stellar total to an eye-popping $345M from North America. Worldwide, the gross for King is expected to shatter the $900M mark over the weekend with the coveted billion-dollar mark in reach during the month ahead.

Elsewhere at the domestic box office, the teen girl comedy Win a Date with Tad Hamilton! looks to fall sharply after a weak bow. A 45% plunge to $4M could result giving the DreamWorks dud $13M in ten days. Sony's Big Fish has been holding up well being an awards contender, but now with no Globes and no major Oscar nods, interest will deflate quickly. A 40% drop to $4.5M would give the Tim Burton creation $55M to date.

Russell Crowe's seafaring adventure Master and Commander earned a stunning ten Oscar nominations on Tuesday, even if its star was left out of the pack. Fox will reissue the mega-budgeted pic into 1,117 theaters on Friday hoping to reach moviegoers who weren't sold on the nineteenth century tale the first time around. Last weekend, Master averaged just $1,513 from 235 locations in its eleventh voyage. With renewed interest, this weekend could see a $4M gross which would boost the cume to $90M. Thanks to Oscar's glow, Master and Commander may now sail past the $100M domestic mark, although profitability will still depend on more coin from international waters and strong worldwide video sales later this year.

It was a terrific week for Charlize Theron who won a best actress Golden Globe award and an Oscar nomination for her haunting turn as a serial killer in Monster. With so much more mainstream exposure, Newmarket Films will double the theater count to 661 on Friday aiming to lure in the curious. Other indie pics with actresses in riveting non-glamourous roles like Monster's Ball starring Halle Berry and Boys Don't Cry with Hillary Swank went down the same route and successfully used their kudos to allow the film to reach a larger audience. Monster should be no different and could collect around $3M this weekend boosting the cume to $10M with a leggy run ahead.

Focus Features will widen its Bill Murray pic Lost in Translation from 357 to 632 playdates on Friday. The Sofia Coppola-directed film picked up three major Globes on Sunday including Picture, Actor, and Screenplay and was honored with four Oscar nods on Tuesday including Best Picture. This weekend will see a healthy boost at the box office, but the real winner could be the DVD release which is set for next Tuesday.

idealdiscountdude 01-29-2004 02:31 PM

Me thinks its gonna be a SLOW weekend at the Box Office!

Ideal's Predix:

1.Along Came Polly $10.4 million
2.The Butterfly Effect $ 9.8 million
3.The Perfect Score $ 6.7 million
4.You Got Served $6.5 million
5.LOTR:ROTK $5.5 million
6.Big Fish $5.2 million
7.The Big Bounce $ 4.9 million
8.Cheaper By The Dozen $ 4.8 million
9.Mystic River $ 4.7 million
10.Monster $ 4.0 million

EDsoulsurvive* 01-29-2004 03:47 PM

I'm thinking The Perfect Score will top the box office with just about 11 million.

Damned Martian 01-29-2004 03:59 PM

DEFINITIVE PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEW RELEASES

The Big Bounce - $9.5 million
The Perfect Score - $11 million
You Got Served - $3 million

DEFINITIVE PREDICTIONS FOR THE FILMS EXPANDING

Master & Commander - $3.5 million
Monster - $1.5 million
Girl With A Pearl Earring - $0.8 million

Jon Lyrik 01-29-2004 06:12 PM

1) The Perfect Score-$12.3, Week 1
2) The Big Bounce-$11.8, Week 1
3) Along Came Polly-$10.5, -36%, Week 3
4) The Butterfly Effect-$8.5 million; -50%; Week 2
5) Big Fish-$5.1; -28%; Week 8
6) The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King-$5.1; -24.9%; Week 7
7) Cheaper By The Dozen-$4.5 million; -29.9%; Week 6
8) Win A Date With Tad Hamilton!-$4.4, -40%; Week 2
9) You Got Served-$3.9; Week 1
10) Monster-$3.5; +68.6%; Week 6
11) Cold Mountain-$3.2; -34.7%; Week 6
12) Mystic River-$3; -10.3%; Week 17

My predictions on the Top 12. I'd do the rest of the expanders, but it would take too long.

Mike 01-29-2004 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Damned Martian
Monster - $1.5 million
MONSTER is adding almost double the theaters it was in last weekend, and Charlize won a Golden Globe for her performance, and is nominated for an Oscar. The movie made over 2 Million last weekend. Do you really think it will make less this weekend? That would give it a crappy per-screen average of $2,269.


*****HERE'S MY PREDICTIONS*****

1. ALONG CAME POLLY - 10.6 MILLION
2. THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT - 10.2 MILLION
3. THE PERFECT SCORE - 9.7 MILLION
4. YOU GOT SERVED - 7.7 MILLION
5. THE BIG BOUNCE - 6.9 MILLION (Yet I just have this feeling it will make even less)
6. LORD OF THE RINGS: RETURN OF THE KING - 5.1 MILLION
7. WIN A DATE WITH TAD HAMILTON - 4.8 MILLION
8. CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN - 4.5 MILLION
9. BIG FISH - 4.3 MILLION
10. COLD MOUNTAIN - 3.5 MILLION
11. MYSTIC RIVER - 3.4 MILLION
12. MONSTER - 3 MILLION
13. MASTER & COMMANDER - 3 MILLION
14. SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE - 2.8 MILLION
15. TORQUE - 2.2 MILLION
16. CALENDAR GIRLS - 1.8 MILLION
17. GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING - 1.5 MILLION
18. THE LAST SAMURAI - 1.5 MILLION
19. LOST IN TRANSLATION - 1.4 MILLION

MadsenOMC 01-30-2004 09:36 AM

Mr. Lyrik, you really think that with the Super Bowl and some extremely cold weather in certain parts of the country, the two lackluster January releases will both make over $10 million? I could be wrong, but I do not see that happening. I sense zero interest in The Big Bounce and only minimal interest for The Perfect Score.

Mike 01-30-2004 10:28 AM

Even my 6.9 Million prediction for THE BIG BOUNCE seems like too much. I just don't picture this movie doing well. I don't sense any interest for it and just have this feeling it will bomb. I think I will probably end up lowering it today.

Mike 01-30-2004 08:06 PM

This is from Box Office Prophets:

Weekend Forecast for January 30 - February 1, 2004
By Reagen Sulewski


The first consequences of the Oscar nominations will be felt this weekend, as a few films grabbed unexpected kudos from the Academy. However, in an unfortunately bad case of timing, the accelerated Oscar year lands the post-nomination weekend up against the Super Bowl, one of the dark days on the box office calendar.

With Sunday falloffs of 60% and up, Hollywood's attitude towards this weekend has traditionally been one of pulling the sheets over its head and hiding. In the past few years, though, there has been a little bit of breakthrough with a counter-programming strategy. The best example of this working is 1999's She's All That, which opened to $16 million and made Freddie Prinze, Jr. a household name, something for which those filmmakers have never apologized. This year, we have two films primarily aimed at teenagers and an ensemble heist flick. Nothing looks primed for a huge breakout this time around but the weekend won't be a total waste.

The Perfect Score looks as if someone looked at last year's Better Luck Tomorrow and decided it'd work better less grim and ethnic. A group of "motley" yet attractive teenagers, cracking under pressure, decide to band together despite their differences and steal the answers to the SAT test. Valuable lessons are learned and friendships and understanding ensue. Isn't felony fun? If there's a film out of the three this weekend that is likely to break out, it's this one, as it fits the most into the young female demographic that is least affected by the festivities on Sunday. That's mostly due to the strong female leads, Erika Christensen and Scarlett Johanssen (who should call the FBI considering how robbed she was of at least one Oscar nomination). It's arguable whether Christensen is better known for her roles in Traffic and Swimfan or for being Julia Stiles genetic twin (I didn't realize it wasn't Stiles in this movie until very recently), but that's not necessarily a bad thing for the movie's sake. Swimfan, her first real lead, scored a respectable $11 million opening in September of 2002, which points to her as a decent torch bearer in the Skechers set. Johanssen had her breakout year in 2003, with both Lost in Translation and Girl With a Pearl Earring scoring with critics, and the former even earning a terrific-for-its-budget $30 million plus (so far -- more on that later).

The male cast is a group of relative unknowns, though that's not always a penalty, nor are knowns always a bonus (look at Tad Hamilton, for example). What matters here is a slick concept sold well. The Perfect Score is an MTV production, which doesn't always mean great things but is usually good at keeping them from being a complete disaster. Nothing is getting pushed much this weekend in terms of screen counts, and Perfect Score is receiving only 2,208. Director Brian Robbins has shown he can do a lot with a little before, taking Varsity Blues to $16 million in a January on just 2,121 screens (on a four-day weekend, but why split hairs), though perhaps the less said about his Ready to Rumble and Summer Catch, the better. No miracles here, but a decent $11 million shouldn't be out of the question for the weekend.

In a different world, I'd think you got Served was an SNL parody of something (say, 8 Mile), but as it turns out, it's a real movie. Street dancing's real, of course, but it doesn't take much to see this as a Breakin' for a new generation (would that we get a subtitle as good as Electric Boogaloo out of the deal). Starring the boy bands IMX and B2K (who promptly broke up before the release of the movie... good timing, guys) and directed by their manager (Ooh, synergy), it doesn't take too much of a cynical personality to read this one as product, pure and simple. Well packaged and energetic product, to be sure, but are you really expecting anything from the director of a House Party movie that didn't star Kid 'n Play? Superficially, this has a lot in common with a fair number of recent films, including Honey, Drumline and Bring it On. All of these were able to tap into an underserved market and/or present a clever look into a sub-culture.

You Got Served has a chance to do the latter, but is far more likely to be a mess of clichťs. Opening in 1,933 venues, which is apparently the new standard level opening for films that target a primarily black audience, this shouldn't outright bomb but will not reach the heights of the previously mentioned films. The superior-looking Honey managed only $12 million, and on a weekend where it didn't face the biggest TV event of the year. I predict a heavily front-loaded $7 million over three-days.

The Big Bounce is the second go at making a movie out of the Elmore Leonard novel of the same name. It seems as though Hollywood has finally figured out how to deal with Leonard's books (bring back Karen Sisco!), so the chances are good that the target audience should be happy with this one. How big that audience is remains to be seen. A very similar looking film, Big Trouble flopped and flopped badly despite being a bestselling novel and a lot of fun. Mind you, it also starred Tim Allen, so maybe that's your problem right there. The two above the line stars being sold are Owen Wilson and Morgan Freeman, both of whom are enjoyable in almost anything but don't always pick enjoyable movies (it's been three years for Wilson, back to The Royal Tenenbaums).

There's also a large ensemble involved, including Charlie Sheen, Gary Sinise and the debut of Sara Foster, who the ads have gone overboard in trying to sell as sex appeal (not that I blame them). There's been a lack of focus in the ads, though, which is never a good thing. When the ads come down to looking like "someone's doing something to someone" as we have here, it looks like they're either trying to hide something, or they don't know how to deal with what they've got. A title that doesn't really evoke anything doesn't help either. It's also the opener most likely to be affected by Super Bowl Sunday, being the most adult-oriented of them. It's got the widest bow at a little over 2,300 locations, but isn't likely to bowl anyone over. Look for around $5 million.

And now we get to the boosting effect of Oscar nominations, which will be slightly subdued this year. However, about half a dozen films are making significant pushes based on their results on Tuesday. Return of the King is of course still in its first run (and in fact is losing screens this weekend) and shouldn't see much of a bump; neither of the two previous films in this series did. As of Thursday, it will have moved past Finding Nemo for top spot of the year and eighth place all time, and over the weekend will easily pass The Two Towers final total of $341 million for seventh. Itís still on pace for around $375 million, though who knows what a Best Picture win could do.

The major expansions are Master and Commander, Monster, Mystic River, Lost in Translation and Girl With a Pearl Earring. Lost in Translation is likely to benefit most, with four high-profile nominations and a baseline of positive buzz to help it along. This is exactly the kind of film that seems to benefit year after year and in this case could get as much as $20 million more when itís all said and done. Letís start slow, though, giving it about $3 million this weekend. Monster is already in the top ten (through the weekday) and is still on its first release. It only has the one nomination for Charlize Theron, but thatís a crucial one as she is a very large front-runner for Best Actress. Itís a little more than doubling its venue counts and should preserve most of its per-screen average, giving it around $4 million through Sunday.

Big losers in this respect are Big Fish and Cold Mountain, which, while not shut out, failed to make as big of impacts as they would have hoped. Both films are likely to continue on down their normal progression.

Finally, the dramatization of the 1980s Olympic Menís Hockey Gold medal winning team, Miracle, sneaks in 1,100 venues on Saturday. Itís a perfect movie to sneak, but I question its positioning. Itís still the day before the Super Bowl, but thatís not to say that audiences wonít be slightly pre-occupied. It seems to me that it may get lost in the shuffle or have the impact of the preview be muted. At least Disney isnít giving away much in terms of box office by doing this.

Mike 01-30-2004 08:16 PM

I've changed my predictions some:

YOU GOT SERVED - 10.4 MILLION
THE PERFECT SCORE - 9 MILLION
THE BIG BOUNCE - 4.9 MILLION


I think a lot of people are underestimating YOU GOT SERVED, just like people usually always underestimate movies that cater to the African American audience. You'd think people would learn by now ;).

MadsenOMC 01-31-2004 12:32 PM

Good change Mike. From moviecitynews.com:

Early Friday Estimates
1. You Got Served - $6.0m
2. Butterfly Effect - $3.4m
3. Along Came Polly - $3.4m
4. The Perfect Score - $2.1m
5. Win a Date With Tad Hamilton - $1.5m
6. Big Fish - $1.4m
7. LOTR: Return of the King - $1.4m
8. Mystic River - $1.3m
9. The Big Bounce - $1.3m
10. Cold Mountain - $1.1m

Nate6 01-31-2004 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by MadsenOMC
1. You Got Served - $6.0m
Moviegoers are retarded...

Mike 01-31-2004 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by MadsenOMC
Good change Mike. From moviecitynews.com:
Thanks. I wish I would have went even higher though, but who knew?

Mike 02-01-2004 12:52 PM

***EST. THEATER COUNTS***


Catch That Kid - 2,700
Miracle Disney - 2,500
Barbershop 2: Back in Business - 2,400
City of God - 100+
Book of Mormon Movie - 30
Touching the Void - 13 (adds five cities) +8
The Dreamers - 5
Osama - 4
The Lost Skeleton of Cadavra - 1 (LA)


******MY PREDICTIONS******


BARBERSHOP 2 - 26 MILLION


I haven't even seen one single ad for this movie, and didn't know until Thursday night that it was coming out this next weekend. I couldn't believe it was coming out already and I didn't know anything about it. That's weird. Regardless though, it will still do well. At least 20 Million is pretty much certain.

CATCH THAT KID - 14.1 MILLION

MIRACLE - 12.6 MILLION

Frank the Tank 02-01-2004 12:56 PM

Barbershop 2 - 24 million
Miracle - 13 million
Catch That Kid - 6 million (With 3 Spy Kids movie, Cody Banks, another Cody Banks movie coming out kids should be getting sick of these spy kid movie. Their no big stars at least for kids in it either.

MadsenOMC 02-01-2004 01:07 PM

I agree with the Barbershop 2 predictions. I have been seeing a ton of TV spots, and it should open at least in the low 20s. But don't underestimate Miracle and the Disney machine. The Rookie opened to over $16 million, with a similar type of star. Quaid and Russell don't guarantee a strong opening weekend, but they are highly recognizable stars. It's a feel-good story that most people are familiar with. Plus, there's some patriotism involved. Should appeal to most age groups, and I'd guess it makes at least $15 million. As for Catch That Kid, I think I've seen one, maybe two TV spots in the past couple months. What's the awareness level on this one? I'd guess pretty low. Plus, as mentioned previously, no stars in it. So it's being sold on concept alone. And does it look that exciting? Are kids begging their parents to take them to see it? I don't get that feeling.

Mike 02-01-2004 01:33 PM

I've seen too many TV spots for Catch That Kid. I watched my niece and nephew for my sister the other day and when they were watching TV they showed quite a bit, at least one every commercial break. But I had seen a ton before that, and I keep seeing them. I've seen a few for Miracle. And none for Barbershop 2.

The only stars I recognize from Catch That Kid are the Panic Room girl, Kristen Stewart, and Jennifer Beals.

MadsenOMC 02-01-2004 01:44 PM

So are you sensing a lot of in Catch That Kid? Some buzz? I am sensing zero buzz, a Big Bounce level of it. I don't recall reading anything about it anywhere and I actually thought it was opening in March or April. I don't see a big opening for it at all, but I could be wrong. Miracle will do well. The reviews have been very good to excellent thus far, it's Disney, a popular sports legend, and it's got the American pride, feel-good, underdog thing going for it. I'm sure the sneaks over the weekend did fairly well. Mid-teens at the least I'd say.

Jon Lyrik 02-01-2004 01:46 PM

You Got Served - (3.9 / 16.00) -- Accuracy: 24.38%
Along Came Polly - (10.5 / 10.10) -- Accuracy: 96.04%
The Butterfly Effect - (8.5 / 10.00) -- Accuracy: 85.00%
Return of the King - (5.1 / 5.30) -- Accuracy: 96.23%
The Perfect Score - (12.3 / 5.00) -- Accuracy: 0.00%
Big Fish - (5.1 / 4.60) -- Accuracy: 89.13%
Win a Date with Tad Hamilton - (4.4 / 4.50) -- Accuracy: 97.78%
Cold Mountain - (3.2 / 4.50) -- Accuracy: 71.11%
Cheaper by the Dozen - (4.5 / 4.10) -- Accuracy: 90.24%
The Big Bounce - (11.8 / 3.30) -- Accuracy: 0.00%
Monster - (3.5 / 3.56) -- Accuracy: 98.31%
Mystic River - (3 / 4.4) -- Accuracy: 68.18%

OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 68.03%

New Release: 8.13%
Still in Theater: 88%

Awful. Just awful.

Barbershop 2-$22.5 million

-The first was the sleeper hit of September 2002, well, after Sweet Home Alabama, anyway. Should open a bit better but fall around $5 million short in the long run of the original.

Miracle-$14 million

-Should do Rookie-style numbers.

Catch that Kid-$7 million

-I think the moviegoing public has had enough Spy Kids rip-offs. Besides, the promotion on this is sparse at best. It will make about half of Agent Cody Banks.

Mike 02-01-2004 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by MadsenOMC
So are you sensing a lot of in Catch That Kid? Some buzz? I am sensing zero buzz, a Big Bounce level of it. I don't recall reading anything about it anywhere and I actually thought it was opening in March or April. I don't see a big opening for it at all, but I could be wrong.
Well, I've seen a lot of ads for it, but I don't think the anticipation is that high. However, I don't feel the buzz being nearly as bad as it was for The Big Bounce. I don't think it will open with less than 9 Million. But I guess we'll see.


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