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Old 11-21-2005, 12:03 PM
Originally posted by Tuukka
I think the problem with HP series is that they are increasingly operating among their fanbase. When you have a 4th film in the series, which looks very similar to previous entries, it's hard anymore to appeal to the audience which didn't fall in love with the previous films.

The thing is, SS had the biggest amount of audiences who checked it out of curiosity. And with each installment this crossover audience has grown smaller and smaller. Lot's of people were converted to the HP phenomenom, but those who weren't are unlikely to be converted at this point - They just don't care.

Since HP films are increasingly operating on their fanbase, I expect them to be increasingly front-loaded and less leggy with each installment.

While the fanbase is not showing any fatigue towards the series, I think the crossover audience is.

I agree. That is my concern for this movie.

Here is the thing. From the article I quoted above, it said that they sold about as many tickets as HP1. Additionally, exit polls showed that only 40% of the audience was under 17. Azkaban had an audience that was 60% under 17 according to that article. It could certainly mean that 20% of the people who camped HP3 are older now. But it could also mean that there are a few more adults watching the series as well. If we had more detailed statistics, though, it would be able to determine what the statistics more accurately mean.

I'm one of those people. I saw 3 previous flicks in theatres, but I'm waiting for DVD with this one. I moderately liked the previous films. They were well made. HP3 was superbly made. But I just feel indifferent to the stories and the characters.
HP4 was very well made as well. Its somewhat like HP3 -- they heavily streamlined the original book to make this a thriller. More importantly, the characters get more interesting because Newell does a great job of making them more human. If you moderately liked the other films, I think that you could get enjoyment out of a matinee ticket.

HP4 is going to do great next weekend, but after that it will get killed in respective weekends by Narnia and Kong, both of whom appeal largely to the same audience. But considering that HP4 will have already over 200 million in the bag when Narnia comes out, the studio will be rolling in money.
I think you are right. If Harry Potter makes 230-250 million domestically (which is possible if they get 60 million this weekend), I think that WB will be more than content. Afterall, it is the international market and the DVD market where they rake in the huge bucks. Interestingly enough, along these lines, I read an unconfirmed article that the DVD will be released in early April with 15 minutes of extra footage and directors commentaries.

As for Kong/ you think that they are going to be the type of movies that open with 65-100 million dollar openings? Or do you think they will open with moderately big openings (40-65m) and stay strong because of strong WOM?
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