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Old 10-25-2009, 07:23 PM
Predictions for the Weekend of October 30th-November 1st

1. Michael Jackson's This Is It- $42 million
2. Paranormal Activity- $14.5 million
3. Where the Wild Things Are- $7.5 million
4. Law Abiding Citizen- $7.25 million
5. Saw VI- $6.75 million
6. Couples Retreat- $6.5 million
7. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs- $4 million
8. Astro Boy- $3.5 million
9. The Stepfather- $3.25 million
10. Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant- $3 million

Halloween weekend at the box-office is never all it is hyped up to be. New horror movies usually open to disappointing numbers, and horror films that opened on previous weekends tend to drop harder than expected. Just look at last year's Halloween numbers (Halloween fell on a Friday) and you'll see what I mean. For this reason, I expect Paranormal Activity (unless it expands to 3000 theatres) will have its first declining weekend. That's not to say it will have a huge drop or anything, but a 35% drop wouldn't surprise me. Saw VI will definitely have a big drop though... that's a given.

The big one though is not Paranormal Activity or Saw VI or Where the Wild Things are, it is Michael Jackson's This Is It. The film that is apparently outselling films like Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince in pre-sales. I expect it will be quite front-loaded and the whole "Get your tickets a month early, it's only showing for two weeks" thing has probably helped it in the pre-sales category, but it should have a pretty solid first five days. With a shot in the dark prediction, I'm gonna say $42 million for the weekend, and $75 million for the 5-day.
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