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  #2464  
Old 12-16-2011, 02:58 PM
Predictions for the Weekend of December 16-18

1. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows- $50 million
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks- $36 million
3. Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol- $12 million
4. Young Adult- $7 million
5. New Year's Eve- $6.5 million
6. The Sitter- $5 million
6. The Muppets- $4.75 million
7. Arthur Christmas- $4.5 million
8. Hugo- $4.25 million
9. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1- $4 million
10. The Descendants- $3.75 million

On top of there being a box-office slump recently, this weekend usually serves up pretty mediocre numbers, since most people are waiting until Christmas to catch a flick. The predictions I've seen seem to be way high-balling Sherlock at like $70-80 million. No way that happens. $50 million seems about right, and then it'll make another $50 million (or close to it) next weekend. I'm also expecting that Alvin may under perform as well. It'll still make a killing, but I don't think it'll do as well as the other two. Ghost Protocol is opening in 425 IMAX theatres, so it should have a pretty high PTA that should lead to a double digit weekend. People are also completely ignoring Young Adult in their predictions. 1000 theatres with a PTA of around $7000 seems about right.
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