The Fins have Reggie Bush, who thinks he can be the league's leading rusher this season...
I can see the Pats winning it all, but their defense still worries me. Every elite team has at least one glaring weakness in the AFC:
Patriots - secondary
Ravens - no elite wide receiver (sorry, Anquan, but you're too old, and Smith is too young)
Steelers - health and running game
Texans - Schaub under pressure (still unproven)
Those are the 4 most balanced teams in the AFC, and there is something significantly wrong with each of them. For a division winner, the Pats have a very easy schedule, so I expect them to have the 1 seed again. But I wouldn't be surprised if this is another year where a team with 9 wins gets hot at the right time and gets to the Super Bowl.
My personal sleeper pick: Oakland. McFadden was dominant last year before he got hurt. Palmer got a whole training camp and should be a solid qb once again. They have the most explosive offensive in football (assuming Palmer can still throw a deep ball) and a very underrated defense. Plus, the AFC West sucks. San Diego lost Jackson and Tolbert, and now Vincent Brown is out for a while. Kansas City is on the right track, but isn't there yet. Denver has Peyton, who is always a wild card, but Oakland actually went 6-0 in the division last year. I smell something similar this time around (5-1?) and better play outside of the division. I think Oakland makes the playoffs and maybe makes some noise.