Originally Posted by someguy
Does anyone know if there's a likelihood that Obama could win the EV but lose the popular vote? I haven't really paid attention to the popular vote so I don't want to make any predictions on that.
I have read a few places that think it's very possible. As your disclaimer stated this is not an opinion simply what some are saying... Romney needs to destroy Obama with the white vote (something McCain just about did and still won the white majority). There's some talk that some "traditional" black voters who were 100% in Obama's camp are retreating do to his stance on using the Bible to support his gay marriage stance, and that some of those voters are now 50/50 or not going to vote at all. It can't be overstated how well Obama's team did in '08 at getting historic non-voters to vote, and there's a feeling in some circles that there are a lot of people disillusioned enough by Obama but not ready to vote for anyone else. Ultimately non-voters and third-party voters still probably help Obama, but the margin is legitimately closer.
Someguy, have you read the speculation that the EC could end in an exact tie? It's not likely but certainly possible... in which case the House elects the president (in a straight-up vote, no extra points for bigger states) and the Senate elects the VP. Which would likely mean 4 years of Romney-Biden. Can you imagine? Oy.
I love this sort of strategy talk and would love to here Mr Coyler's plan to get Romney to 270.
All of your storm thoughts I agree with, with the same question about Virginia. Ultimately, it probably really does come down to Ohio. If Obama wins that his lead becomes fairly insurmountable.