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Old 11-01-2012, 01:08 AM
Originally Posted by AceD View Post
Someguy, have you read the speculation that the EC could end in an exact tie? It's not likely but certainly possible... in which case the House elects the president (in a straight-up vote, no extra points for bigger states) and the Senate elects the VP. Which would likely mean 4 years of Romney-Biden. Can you imagine? Oy.
There was a very (VERY) brief moment where this was considered but the chances are really small. PA and MI appear to be safe for Obama, so at that point all he needs is IA, NV and OH (all of which have Obama ahead in the polls). I take the 'never say never' route myself on things but the chances of a tie happening are incredibly low.

What I think will be interesting about this election is how much of an impact Obama's ground game makes on the results. States like NC and FL appear to have a decent Romney lead (up until today at least) but some people are arguing that Obama's strength on the ground is being underestimated. If NC ends up flipping for Obama (which I think is unlikely but we'll see) it'll be a testament to how well the Democrats have mastered their campaigning.

As for the popular vote it looks unlikely that Obama will lose to Romney there. My biggest concern was that the turnout in the south would be high enough to get Romney over the top in PV but after looking into it that doesn't look like it'll happen.

It was a pretty terrible day for Romney polling-wise. Obama was up or tied in pretty much every swing state poll, and it looks like Romney's bounce from the 1st debate has mostly eroded. The storm could have had an impact on this but it's hard to tell. Either way Obama supporters are starting to feel pretty comfortable about Tuesday night.