If it's going to be over 5 this year, Beasts will most likely get in. If it's not (because there's a chance for that too...if there's not enough love for movies other than the five locks - ZD30, Lincoln, Les Miz, SLP and Life of Pi - then it will only be the five) then Beasts is out.
A lot of people like it, but the story and the way it's told isn't exactly the stuff that Oscars are made of. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets shafted, but I'd predict it gets in.
Ilovemovies...you're going to love The Impossible, it's right up your alley. It is a great film and I hope it gets nominated but it stands little-to-no chance of winning anything. McGregor's is still the best supporting performance I've seen all year.