Originally Posted by Gordon
Anyway, yeah, your scenario isn't crazy. As a matter of fact if someone came from the future and told me "You have to bet your life on correctly predicting Best Actress and I can tell you as a hint it isn't Lawrence" I would guess Riva over Chastain.
This. Jessica Chastain winning would actually surprise me at this point. Riva is the main threat to Lawrence, and I think she's a formidable threat at that.
Like I said in an earlier post, I still think Lawrence will win, but I'm predicting Riva anyway. To explain, my head says Lawrence, but my gut says Riva, and besides, if Emmanuelle Riva does win, I want to be one of the people who called it. I try to do at least one big upset prediction every year. They usually don't pay off, but on the few times that I've been right--as I was for both Tilda Swinton and Alan Arkin (go me!)--it was well worth the risk, because I was the only person in my annual Oscar pool who got those right. I'm pretty sure I'm the only one predicting Riva this year, so we'll see how that pans out.