#1  
Old 07-17-2012, 06:01 PM
2012 Academy Awards

Very early, shot-in-the-dark predictions

Best Picture
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Lincoln
The Master
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Silver Linings Playbook
The Great Gatsby
The Sessions

Other Strong Possibilities: Trouble with the Curve, The Dark Knight Rises, Moonrise Kingdom, Anna Karenina, Flight, Zero Dark Thirty, Mud, Argo

Best Director
Tom Hooper – Les Miserables
Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Other Strong Possibilities: Peter Jackson – The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild, David O. Russell – The Silver Linings Playbook, Baz Luhrmann – The Great Gatsby, Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight Rises, Wes Anderson – Moonrise Kingdom, Joe Wright – Anna Karenina, Robert Zemeckis – Flight, Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty, Ben Affleck - Argo

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Bill Murray – Hyde Park on Hudson

Other Strong Possibilites: Denzel Washington – Flight, Leonardo DiCaprio – The Great Gatsby, Clint Eastwood – Trouble with the Curve, Jamie Foxx – Django Unchained, Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook

Best Actress
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Laura Linney – Hide Park on Hudson
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Carey Mulligan – The Great Gatsby

Other Strong Possibilities: Mary Elizabeth-Winstead – Smashed, Amy Adams – Trouble with the Curve, Keira Knightly – Anna Karenina

Best Supporting Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Dwight Henry – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Russell Crowe – Les Miserables
Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

Other Strong Possibilities: Joel Edgerton – The Great Gatsby, Samuel L. Jackson – Django Unchained, Walton Goggins – Django Unchained, Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Amy Adams – The Master
Sally Field – Lincoln
Judi Dench – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Annette Bening - Imogene

Other Strong Possibilities: Olivia Williams – Hyde Park on Hudson, Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook, Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Best Adapted Screenplay
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
Argo

Other Strong Possibilities: Hyde Park on Hudson, Silver Linings Playbook, The Great Gatsby, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Original Screenplay
The Master
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
The Sessions
Seven Psychopaths

Other Strong Possibilities: Amour, Mud, Flight, Looper, Trouble with the Curve

Best Cinematography
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Django Unchained
The Master
Les Miserables
Life of Pi

Other Strong Possibilities: The Dark Knight Rises, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Lincoln, The Great Gatsby, Anna Karenina

Best Art Direction
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Great Gatsby
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Les Miserables

Other Strong Possibilities: Lincoln, Life of Pi

Best Editing
Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master
Tom Hooper – Les Miserables
Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Other Strong Possibilities: Zero Dark Thirty, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Argo, The Dark Knight Rises, The Great Gatsby, The Bourne Legacy, Flight, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Sound Editing
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Zero Dark Thirty

Other Strong Possibilities: Life of Pi, Flight, The Bourne Legacy, Prometheus, Looper, Skyfall

Best Sound Mixing
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Zero Dark Thirty

Other Strong Possibilities: Les Miserables, Life of Pi, The Bourne Legacy, Prometheus, Looper, Skyfall

Best Visual Effects
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Dark Knight Rises
Life of Pi
The Avengers
Prometheus

Other Strong Possibilities: John Carter, The Amazing Spider-Man, Looper, Flight

Best Animated Film
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-It-Ralph
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman

Other Strong Possibilities: Hotel Transylvania

Best Costume Design
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Great Gatsby
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Les Miserables

Other Strong Possibilities: Mirror Mirror, Snow White and the Huntsman, Lincoln

Best Makeup
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln
Les Miserables

Other Strong Possibilities: Men in Black III, Django Unchained, Anna Karenina, The Great Gatsby

Best Original Score
The Master
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Anna Karenina
Beasts of the Southern Wild

Other Strong Possibilities: Moonrise Kingdom, Rise of the Guardians, The Great Gatsby

Last edited by Bourne101; 07-17-2012 at 07:03 PM..
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  #2  
Old 07-17-2012, 07:11 PM
its very early to say.best of the movies r yet to come.but having read the wonderful screenplay of Django Unchained,my horse in the race is Django Unchained.if Academy dont want the world to know more abt american slave period,they'll snub the film.thats what i can say now.
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  #3  
Old 07-17-2012, 07:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post

Best Supporting Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Dwight Henry – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Russell Crowe – Les Miserables
Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained
Nice.

I don't think Daniel Day Lewis will win another Oscar; he has two and no actor has three Best Actor Oscars. I wouldn't be surprised if he was the first, but I don't the Academy will award an actor a third.

I'm also curious to see if TDKR gets a Best Picture nod since TDK was the supposed reason for the Academy expanding the field to ten nominees.
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  #4  
Old 07-17-2012, 07:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred760 View Post
I'm also curious to see if TDKR gets a Best Picture nod since TDK was the supposed reason for the Academy expanding the field to ten nominees.
I think it has a shot, based on the reactions/reviews so far, but it looks like it'll be a really competitive field this year.
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  #5  
Old 07-18-2012, 12:39 AM
I think Dicaprio will have a better shot with Gatsby than with Django Unchained. I just don't see that movie getting that much love. Even if it's actually great.



BEST PICTURE:

Argo
Cloud Atlas
The Great Gatsby
Flight
The Hobbit
Hyde Park on Hudson
Les Miserables
Lincoln
The Master
Trouble with the Curve


BEST DIRECTOR:

Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Peter Jackson, The Hobbit
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Tom Tykwer/Andy Wachowski/Lana Wachowski, Cloud Atlas


BEST ACTOR:

Clint Eastwood, Trouble with the Curve
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Argo
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit
Hyde Park on Hudson
Lincoln


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Django Unchained
Flight
The Master
Trouble with the Curve
The Words


That's all I got for now. I'll edit to finish it later.
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  #6  
Old 07-18-2012, 08:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
I think Dicaprio will have a better shot with Gatsby than with Django Unchained. I just don't see that movie getting that much love. Even if it's actually great.
I think it will be fine. It will be controversial, sure, but the Academy loves Tarantino and DiCaprio's role in Django is the kind they have been going for lately.
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  #7  
Old 07-18-2012, 11:10 AM
No offense to your list, because you are probably going to be 95% right, but I think it is pretty sad a list like this can be made so early in the year. It is sad that it is so easy to predict the same ole people will get a nod.
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  #8  
Old 07-19-2012, 03:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred760 View Post
Nice.

I don't think Daniel Day Lewis will win another Oscar; he has two and no actor has three Best Actor Oscars. I wouldn't be surprised if he was the first, but I don't the Academy will award an actor a third.

I'm also curious to see if TDKR gets a Best Picture nod since TDK was the supposed reason for the Academy expanding the field to ten nominees.
I can't even describe how much I hate this nonsense. I wish the Academy would just award the people who deserve to win regardless of how many wins they've already had. Day - Lewis is one of the greatest actors we've seen and if he blows us all away in Lincoln, he deserves another Oscar.

Too early to make any real predictions since Gatsby, Django, Hobbit, and Les Miserables could all be awful so we'll see but I would LOVE to see Nolan get a nomination (he'll never win for TDKR) for Best Director
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  #9  
Old 07-23-2012, 11:50 PM
Why the hell not.

Edit: Disclaimer, does anyone know for sure who's actually the lead in "The Master"? For the sake of this wildly offbase set of predictions, I'm gonna assume it's Phoenix. Which means it'll probably be Hoffman. But whatever.

Best Picture
-Anna Karenina
-Beasts of the Southern Wild
-Django Unchained
-Hyde Park on Hudson
-Les Miserables
-Life of Pi
-Lincoln
-The Master
-Moonrise Kingdom
-The Sessions

Best Actor in a Leading Role
-Bill Murray - Hyde Park on Hudson
-Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
-Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
-Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
-John Hawkes - The Sessions

Best Actress in a Leading Role
-Helen Hunt - The Sessions
-Keira Knightley - Anna Karenina
-Laura Linney - Hyde Park on Hudson
-Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
-Quvenzhané Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
-Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild
-Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
-Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
-Russell Crowe - Les Miserables
-Woody Harrelson - Seven Psychopaths

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
-Amy Adams - The Master
-Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
-Olivia Williams - Hyde Park on Hudson
-Sally Field - Lincoln
-Samantha Barks - Les Miserables

Best Director
-Ang Lee - Life of Pi
-Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild
-Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master
-Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
-Tom Hooper - Les Miserables

Best Original Screenplay
-Ben Lewin - The Sessions
-Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master
-Richard Nelson - Hyde Park on Hudson
-Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained
-Wes Anderson/Roman Coppola - Moonrise Kingdom

Best Adapted Screenplay
-Benh Zeitlin/Lucy Alibar - Beasts of the Southern Wild
-David Magee - Life of Pi
-Tony Kushner/Paul Webb - Lincoln
-William Nicholson - Les Miserables
-Tom Stoppard - Anna Karenina

Best Cinematography
-Andrew Lesnie - The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
-Claudio Miranda - Life of Pi
-Danny Cohen - Les Miserables
-Mihai Malaimare Jr. - The Master
-Seamus McGarvey - Anna Karenina

Best Original Score
-John Williams - Lincoln
-Jonny Greenwood - The Master
-Hans Zimmer - The Dark Knight Rises
-Howard Shore - The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
-Mychael Danna - Life of Pi

Best Visual Effects
-The Avengers
-The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
-Life of Pi
(if more than 3, then add The Dark Knight Rises and John Carter

Best Animated Film
-Brave
-Frankenweenie
-ParaNorman
-Rise of the Guardians
-Wreck-It Ralph

So yeah. I'm going big with The Master. It just looks so good between the performances and the look and feel of the film. Plus the Oscars can't just continuously pass over PTA can they? I guess lifetime omissions of Hitchcock, Kubrick, etc. say yes but still. I think Les Miserables would be the closest to spoiling The Master's big day, but Hooper's Oscar-baitery JUST worked, and I think the fact that he and The King's Speech won so handily and so recently will urge Academy voters to go a different direction. Life of Pi seems to have some surefire Oscar buzz behind it, and who knows how long the festival buzz will last on Beasts of the Southern Wild and/or The Sessions. I think Django gets in, but I think Tarantino misses out as Zeitlin sneaks by him.

Those I left out for Best Picture:

-The Great Gatsby - The 11th man out. I think the Academy's gonna end up giving DiCaprio the Oscar for his performance in BOTH Django and Gatsby (sorta like Winslet with The Reader and Revolutionary Road), but I think it's gonna be Django that gets the love while Gatsby sits out. Should get some nominations in all the Baz Luhrmann Awards (set design, make-up, costume, etc.)

-The Dark Knight Rises - Unless it gets in as some sort of 'amalgamation lifetime achievement award' for the trilogy. On it's own, there's no way it deserves a BP nomination IMO, though I liked it and think it's a good (albeit not perfect) end. Still, it could get the LOTR3 treatment and get all the Awards the Academy realizes it should've gave out the first two movies.

-Zero Dark Thirty - Eh, I can't really see ANOTHER Kathryn Bigelow/Mark Boal Iraq war movie getting any real traction. Sure it'll be a good film though.

-Flight - Looks good from the trailers, but Denzel's last few + Zemeckis's last few = No. Could end up surprising though.

-The Hobbit - They gave 45 fucking Oscars to Return of the King. You've had your share.

-To the Wonder - No way this comes out this year.


THERE.

Last edited by izzy2024; 07-24-2012 at 12:07 AM..
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  #10  
Old 07-24-2012, 06:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by izzy2024 View Post
-Zero Dark Thirty - Eh, I can't really see ANOTHER Kathryn Bigelow/Mark Boal Iraq war movie getting any real traction. Sure it'll be a good film though.
There's definitely a "been there, done that" feeling that I'm getting from this. It probably won't match the reviews that The Hurt Locker got, so that will hurt it too.

Even though it looks good, I hope Bigelow does something else after this.
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  #11  
Old 07-24-2012, 11:46 PM
Well since To the Wonder made it into TIFF that means it'll probably come out this year. So that could change some things. Because I could see it being a major contender.
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  #12  
Old 01-09-2013, 09:46 AM
I think Affleck will only get a Best Director nod and nothing for Best Actor. I think Argo's best shot at winning anything will be Alan Arkin, and I do think he'll get nominated. I hope Leonardo Dicaprio gets at least a nomination for Django Unchained - playing somewhat against type as a racist slave owner and he steals every scene he's in.

I know Daniel Day Lewis is the frontrunner, but I'm hesitant in predicting that he'll win it since no actor has ever won three Best Actor Oscars. I don't know if the Academy will want to give him the title of the best actor out of all the actors that have won the award.

And correct me if I'm wrong, but if DDL does win - it would be the first time Spielberg's directing an Oscar-winning performance.
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  #13  
Old 01-09-2013, 10:17 AM
BAFTA NOMINATIONS

BEST FILM

ARGO Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck, George Clooney
LES MISÉRABLES Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh
LIFE OF PI Gil Netter, Ang Lee, David Womark
LINCOLN Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy
ZERO DARK THIRTY Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow, Megan Ellison

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM

ANNA KARENINA Joe Wright, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Paul Webster, Tom Stoppard
THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL John Madden, Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Ol Parker
LES MISÉRABLES Tom Hooper, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh, William Nicholson, Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer
SEVEN PSYCHOPATHS Martin McDonagh, Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin
SKYFALL Sam Mendes, Michael G. Wilson, Barbara Broccoli, Neal Purvis, Robert Wade, John Logan

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER

BART LAYTON (Director), DIMITRI DOGANIS (Producer) The Imposter
DAVID MORRIS (Director), JACQUI MORRIS (Director/Producer) McCullin
DEXTER FLETCHER (Director/Writer), DANNY KING (Writer) Wild Bill
JAMES BOBIN (Director) The Muppets
TINA GHARAVI (Director/Writer) I Am Nasrine

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

AMOUR Michael Haneke, Margaret Ménégoz
HEADHUNTERS Morten Tyldum, Marianne Gray, Asle Vatn
THE HUNT Thomas Vinterberg, Sisse Graum Jørgensen, Morten Kaufmann
RUST AND BONE Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux
UNTOUCHABLE Eric Toledano, Olivier Nakache, Nicolas Duval Adassovsky, Yann Zenou, Laurent Zeitoun

DOCUMENTARY

THE IMPOSTER Bart Layton, Dimitri Doganis
MARLEY Kevin Macdonald, Steve Bing, Charles Steel
McCULLIN David Morris, Jacqui Morris
SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn
WEST OF MEMPHIS Amy Berg

ANIMATED FILM

BRAVE Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman
FRANKENWEENIE Tim Burton
PARANORMAN Sam Fell, Chris Butler

DIRECTOR

AMOUR Michael Haneke
ARGO Ben Affleck
DJANGO UNCHAINED Quentin Tarantino
LIFE OF PI Ang Lee
ZERO DARK THIRTY Kathryn Bigelow

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

AMOUR Michael Haneke
DJANGO UNCHAINED Quentin Tarantino
THE MASTER Paul Thomas Anderson
MOONRISE KINGDOM Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
ZERO DARK THIRTY Mark Boal

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

ARGO Chris Terrio
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin
LIFE OF PI David Magee
LINCOLN Tony Kushner
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK David O. Russell

LEADING ACTOR

BEN AFFLECK Argo ---> LOL
BRADLEY COOPER Silver Linings Playbook
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS Lincoln
HUGH JACKMAN Les Misérables
JOAQUIN PHOENIX The Master

LEADING ACTRESS

EMMANUELLE RIVA Amour
HELEN MIRREN Hitchcock
JENNIFER LAWRENCE Silver Linings Playbook
JESSICA CHASTAIN Zero Dark Thirty
MARION COTILLARD Rust and Bone

SUPPORTING ACTOR

ALAN ARKIN Argo
CHRISTOPH WALTZ Django Unchained
JAVIER BARDEM Skyfall
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN The Master
TOMMY LEE JONES Lincoln

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

AMY ADAMS The Master
ANNE HATHAWAY Les Misérables
HELEN HUNT The Sessions
JUDI DENCH Skyfall
SALLY FIELD Lincoln

ORIGINAL MUSIC

ANNA KARENINA Dario Marianelli
ARGO Alexandre Desplat
LIFE OF PI Mychael Danna
LINCOLN John Williams
SKYFALL Thomas Newman

CINEMATOGRAPHY

ANNA KARENINA Seamus McGarvey
LES MISÉRABLES Danny Cohen
LIFE OF PI Claudio Miranda
LINCOLN Janusz Kaminski
SKYFALL Roger Deakins

EDITING

ARGO William Goldenberg
DJANGO UNCHAINED Fred Raskin
LIFE OF PI Tim Squyres
SKYFALL Stuart Baird
ZERO DARK THIRTY Dylan Tichenor, William Goldenberg

PRODUCTION DESIGN

ANNA KARENINA Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
LES MISÉRABLES Eve Stewart, Anna Lynch-Robinson
LIFE OF PI David Gropman, Anna Pinnock
LINCOLN Rick Carter, Jim Erickson
SKYFALL Dennis Gassner, Anna Pinnock

COSTUME DESIGN

ANNA KARENINA Jacqueline Durran
GREAT EXPECTATIONS Beatrix Aruna Pasztor
LES MISÉRABLES Paco Delgado
LINCOLN Joanna Johnston
SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN Colleen Atwood

MAKE UP & HAIR

ANNA KARENINA Ivana Primorac
HITCHCOCK Julie Hewett, Martin Samuel, Howard Berger
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY Peter Swords King, Richard Taylor, Rick Findlater
LES MISÉRABLES Lisa Westcott
LINCOLN Lois Burwell, Kay Georgiou

SOUND

DJANGO UNCHAINED Mark Ulano, Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti, Wylie Stateman
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY Tony Johnson, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick, Brent Burge, Chris Ward
LES MISÉRABLES Simon Hayes, Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Jonathan Allen, Lee Walpole, John Warhurst
LIFE OF PI Drew Kunin, Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton, Ron Bartlett, D. M. Hemphill
SKYFALL Stuart Wilson, Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Per Hallberg, Karen Baker Landers

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

THE DARK KNIGHT RISES Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Peter Bebb, Andrew Lockley
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White
LIFE OF PI Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer
MARVEL AVENGERS ASSEMBLE Nominees TBC
PROMETHEUS Richard Stammers, Charley Henley, Trevor Wood, Paul Butterworth

SHORT ANIMATION

HERE TO FALL Kris Kelly, Evelyn McGrath
I’M FINE THANKS Eamonn O’Neill
THE MAKING OF LONGBIRD Will Anderson, Ainslie Henderson

SHORT FILM

THE CURSE Fyzal Boulifa, Gavin Humphries
GOOD NIGHT Muriel d’Ansembourg, Eva Sigurdardottir
SWIMMER Lynne Ramsay, Peter Carlton, Diarmid Scrimshaw
TUMULT Johnny Barrington, Rhianna Andrews
THE VOORMAN PROBLEM Mark Gill, Baldwin Li

THE EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)

ELIZABETH OLSEN
ANDREA RISEBOROUGH
SURAJ SHARMA
JUNO TEMPLE
ALICIA VIKANDER

Last edited by DaMovieMan; 01-09-2013 at 10:24 AM..
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  #14  
Old 01-09-2013, 10:54 AM
Tarantino and Haneke getting in over Spielberg? I'll take it.
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  #15  
Old 01-09-2013, 11:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Tarantino and Haneke getting in over Spielberg? I'll take it.
Love it.

Also, no DeNiro in Supporting...almost makes me want to make him my alternate and put Bardem in for tomorrow, but then I remember that Skyfall is a Brit darling.
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  #16  
Old 01-09-2013, 11:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaMovieMan View Post
Love it.
He'll obviously still get an Oscar nomination, but it may say something about its chances of winning BP. Since 2000, the only film to not get a BAFTA director nomination and win a BP Oscar is Million Dollar Baby, which I'm fairly certain was not eligible for BAFTA that year because of its late release. Lincoln could still win, but Argo and Zero Dark Thirty are right there. Argo, in particular, seems to be gaining some steam.
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  #17  
Old 01-28-2013, 04:14 PM
I'm having a hard time predicting that Argo will win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. I know it's happened before (Driving Miss Daisy), but still hard to imagine.

Predicting Daniel Day Lewis for Best Actor is getting easier. I was finding it difficult since no actor has won the Best Actor Oscar more than twice. I'm thinking that since Katharine Hepburn has four Best Actress Oscars, that it was inevitable for a man to surpass the two Oscar mark.
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  #18  
Old 01-28-2013, 10:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred760 View Post
I'm having a hard time predicting that Argo will win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. I know it's happened before (Driving Miss Daisy), but still hard to imagine.

Predicting Daniel Day Lewis for Best Actor is getting easier. I was finding it difficult since no actor has won the Best Actor Oscar more than twice. I'm thinking that since Katharine Hepburn has four Best Actress Oscars, that it was inevitable for a man to surpass the two Oscar mark.
I don't think Day-Lewis's win has been in question for a while. That whole "will they really give him a third Oscar?" uncertainty evaporated a long time ago. Particularly because there's not even a clear alternative, there's no way he won't win.

Affleck's Best Director snub is literally the ONLY thing keeping people from calling Argo a sure bet for Best Picture right now. The DGA, WGA, and BAFTA will be telling. I think this is a pretty reasonable set of assumptions:

For DGA:
-If Argo wins, it's basically over.
-If Lincoln wins, it's a two-film race for Best Picture.
-If Life of Pi wins, then I'd still say Argo is a clear frontrunner since Lincoln would be pretty much out of the running at that point, with Life of Pi becoming the de facto spoiler in the race. But for whatever reason, I think a Life of Pi win at the DGA would just hurt Lincoln more than it would actually boost its own chances. Ang Lee, however, would definitely become the frontrunner for Best Director.

For WGA:
-If Lincoln wins, nothing really changes, because it's expected to win here.
-If Argo wins, then it's REALLY over. It already picked up one unexpected guild win (the SAG), so if it wins this one too, Argo would be almost as big a lock as we've had in the past few years.

For BAFTA:
-If Argo wins Film and Director, its lead increases even further.
-If Argo wins Film but not Director, it cements its lead but doesn't necessarily increase it.
-If Argo wins neither Film nor Director, then something might change, particularly if both prizes go to Life of Pi (Spielberg isn't nominated here) and Ang Lee wins the DGA, in which case Life of Pi would actually become a legitimate Best Picture contender.

But basically, I think that Argo is going to remain the frontrunner for the rest of the season, and I'm just looking forward to seeing if Affleck wins the DGA and the Best Director BAFTA, because if he wins both, then the Best Director Oscar is completely up for grabs.

I'll go out on a limb: If Argo wins the DGA and the BAFTA for Best Film, but Haneke wins the Best Director BAFTA, then I'll actually go ahead and predict Haneke to win the Oscar.
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  #19  
Old 01-28-2013, 10:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
I'll go out on a limb: If Argo wins the DGA and the BAFTA for Best Film, but Haneke wins the Best Director BAFTA, then I'll actually go ahead and predict Haneke to win the Oscar.
I thought you and I agreed to this general outline of events a couple weeks ago.
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  #20  
Old 01-28-2013, 10:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordon View Post
I thought you and I agreed to this general outline of events a couple weeks ago.
Yes, but I'm still unsure about Haneke. A BAFTA win would confirm that there is momentum for him, and only then would I actually be confident enough to predict him (unless Spielberg or Lee wins the DGA, in which case I think they'll win the Oscar too regardless of who wins the BAFTA). My current prediction, though, is that Affleck wins the DGA, and then the BAFTA's do a split between Argo and Ang Lee, which the Oscars will duplicate.
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  #21  
Old 01-28-2013, 10:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
Yes, but I'm still unsure about Haneke. A BAFTA win would confirm that there is momentum for him, and only then would I actually be confident enough to predict him (unless Spielberg or Lee wins the DGA, in which case I think they'll win the Oscar too regardless of who wins the BAFTA). My current prediction, though, is that Affleck wins the DGA, and then the BAFTA's do a split between Argo and Ang Lee, which the Oscars will duplicate.
What about Hanake winning Original Screenplay at BAFTA's instead of director?

Will they really go for Boal again?

Tarantino maybe? He did win the globe.

Last edited by Matchbox225; 01-28-2013 at 10:53 PM..
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  #22  
Old 01-29-2013, 03:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
I don't think Day-Lewis's win has been in question for a while. That whole "will they really give him a third Oscar?" uncertainty evaporated a long time ago. Particularly because there's not even a clear alternative, there's no way he won't win.
Very true. Some movie fan friends of mine have mentioned Hugh Jackman in an upset, but I'm having trouble seeing that more and more.
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  #23  
Old 01-29-2013, 03:37 PM
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Originally Posted by bigred760 View Post
Very true. Some movie fan friends of mine have mentioned Hugh Jackman in an upset, but I'm having trouble seeing that more and more.
I think Phoenix would be more likely than Jackman, but yeah looks like Lewis has this in the bag.
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  #24  
Old 02-25-2013, 12:54 AM
i am not sure of the facts here, but can someone enlighten me:

Has any other actor been one of the main stars in the best picture winning movie in back to back years the way John Goodman now is (for The Artist & Argo)??

i like the little trivia bits like that! like when John C Reilly became the only actor to ever be in 3 of the 5 best picture nominees in 1 year (Chicago, Gangs of New York & The Hours)


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  #25  
Old 02-25-2013, 01:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyNet View Post
i am not sure of the facts here, but can someone enlighten me:

Has any other actor been one of the main stars in the best picture winning movie in back to back years the way John Goodman now is (for The Artist & Argo)??

i like the little trivia bits like that! like when John C Reilly became the only actor to ever be in 3 of the 5 best picture nominees in 1 year (Chicago, Gangs of New York & The Hours)
Meryl Streep was in The Deer Hunter and Kramer Vs. Kramer. They were supporting roles, but she got nominated for both and won for the latter. I can't think of anybody else right now.

I like the trivia stuff too. One I love is how William Hurt was in four back to back Best Picture nominees in the 80's. They were Kiss Of The Spider Woman, Children Of A Lesser God, Broadcast News, and The Accidental Tourist. If you include The Big Chill, he was in 5 Best Picture nominees in one decade. That's impressive.
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  #26  
Old 02-25-2013, 01:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyNet View Post
i am not sure of the facts here, but can someone enlighten me:

Has any other actor been one of the main stars in the best picture winning movie in back to back years the way John Goodman now is (for The Artist & Argo)??
There have been several instances of this. The most recent one I can think of is Russell Crowe starring in Gladiator (2000) and A Beautiful Mind (2001).
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  #27  
Old 02-25-2013, 11:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
There have been several instances of this. The most recent one I can think of is Russell Crowe starring in Gladiator (2000) and A Beautiful Mind (2001).
Forgot about Crowe. I always forget Gladiator won Best Picture that year.

Still can't think of anybody else though other than Meryl Streep who have done this.
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  #28  
Old 02-25-2013, 12:16 PM
I'm still trying to process the Ed Harris stool joke. Clint Eastwood reference? It's like the duck in Ted being called James Franco.
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  #29  
Old 02-25-2013, 11:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matchbox225 View Post
Forgot about Crowe. I always forget Gladiator won Best Picture that year.

Still can't think of anybody else though other than Meryl Streep who have done this.
Actually, there's an event more recent example: Guy Pearce in The Hurt Locker (2009) and The King's Speech (2010).

Also, if this counts, Julie Andrews in My Fair Lady (1964) [she provided the singing voice for Audrey Hepburn] and The Sound of Music (1965).

Christopher Walken in Annie Hall (1977) and The Deer Hunter (1978).

Clark Gable in It Happened One Night (1934) and Mutiny on the Bounty (1935).

Michael Peña in Million Dollar Baby (2004) and Crash (2005).

Last edited by Tkeyjw; 02-26-2013 at 12:01 AM..
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  #30  
Old 02-25-2013, 11:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
Actually, there's an event more recent example: Guy Pearce in The Hurt Locker (2009) and The King's Speech (2010).

Also, if this counts, Julie Andrews in My Fair Lady (1964) [she provided the singing voice for Audrey Hepburn] and The Sound of Music (1965).

Christopher Walken in Annie Hall (1977) and The Deer Hunter (1978).
haha right on... so I was just way off in my assumption Goodman was the first!!
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  #31  
Old 02-26-2013, 12:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tkeyjw View Post
Actually, there's an event more recent example: Guy Pearce in The Hurt Locker (2009) and The King's Speech (2010).

Also, if this counts, Julie Andrews in My Fair Lady (1964) [she provided the singing voice for Audrey Hepburn] and The Sound of Music (1965).

Christopher Walken in Annie Hall (1977) and The Deer Hunter (1978).

Clark Gable in It Happened One Night (1934) and Mutiny on the Bounty (1935).

Michael Peña in Million Dollar Baby (2004) and Crash (2005).
Wow, you did your homework. Good job.

John C. Reilly was mentioned earlier about being in the most Best Picture nominees in one year and I've been trying to think of actors who were in two Best Pictures in one year.

There's Viola Davis last year with The Help and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

John Goodman with The Artist and Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close.

Emma Thompson with In The Name Of The Father and The Remains Of The Day.

Robert De Niro with Goodfellas and Awakenings.

John Malkovich with The Killing Fields and Places In The Heart.

That's all I could think of off the top of my head, but I know there's more.

With the expanded Best Picture Field, I'm sure John C. Reilly's record will be tied or even broken one year.


Also something else I noticed, we had two acting winners this year who were also previous winners on their last nominations. Add Ang Lee in for director and I think this could be a record.

Also, three of the acting winners were also on their second nominations.

Last edited by Matchbox225; 02-26-2013 at 12:20 AM..
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  #32  
Old 02-26-2013, 12:53 AM
i dont get the love for Jennifer Hudson... i think she is one of the most over rated oscar winners ever... her performance at the oscars last night was ok, but she just screams her way through the song and she gets a fucking standing ovation?!

also... for them touting a huge homage to James Bond, a couple minutes of clips with a live performance of one of the songs does not an homage make... im not even a Bond fan, but shit i expected more!


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  #33  
Old 02-26-2013, 12:55 AM
I hated Dreamgirls and thought Jennifer Hudson's performance was overrated and actually quite irritating, but that said, I thought her performance last night was absolutely stellar.

And yeah, the Bond tribute was a bit of a bust. They could have and should have done a lot better. The Goldfinger performance was okay but Adele's performance was amazing as usual.
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  #34  
Old 02-26-2013, 01:38 AM
The Goldfinger part was impressive given the fact it was done so long ago.
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