Let's talk electoral college

[someguy]

DISCLAIMER: This thread isn't about your opinions on the candidates, their parties, etc. We'll discuss ways that Romney and Obama can win the 270+ electoral votes required to become president. This thread is for strategy talk only.

Here's a nice interactive map where you can play out different election scenarios: www.270towin.com

According to 270 to win (and Real Clear Politics too I think) the current electoral votes that are locks for Obama and Romney are:

Obama 201
Romney 191

And the swing states are:

New Hampshire (4)
Nevada (6)
Iowa (6)
Colorado (9)
Wisconsin (10)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
Michigan (16)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Florida (29)

Here are some sites that have their own polls or collect polling data:

Real Clear Politics (collects polls from various organizations and shows an overall average) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/

Gallup www.gallup.com

Rasmussen www.rasmussenreports.com

PPP Polls http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

Five Thirty Eight (Nate Silver, who correctly predicted the outcome of 49 out of 50 states in 2008, uses all relevant polling data he can find to accurately predict the outcome of the election including senate races) http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

My personal guess as of right now: Obama still has the math in his favour. MI, PA, IA, WI and OH have had Obama ahead consistently since the start of the election and Obama had a lot of excellent news coming out of Ohio today with almost every poll giving him a lead over Romney. Winning those 5 states will put him over 270.

Romney's path is a lot tougher but it's plausible. Virginia, Florida and North Carolina are looking more and more like they'll go red which would bump Romney up to 248. All he would need at that point is Ohio and one other swing state, or Wisconsin/Colorado/New Hampshire (or Iowa even but Obama already has a huge advantage there so it's not likely). Romney's gonna have a harder time than Obama when it comes to reaching 270, but it's not impossible.

Here's my current prediction (which is subject to change at any time, I'm not saying this WILL happen it's just how I currently feel things will turn out)



Does anyone know if there's a likelihood that Obama could win the EV but lose the popular vote? I haven't really paid attention to the popular vote so I don't want to make any predictions on that.

[Jim Colyer]

I think Romney will get 270-plus.

[Erroneous]

I believe the recent storm is going to hurt voting in several northeastern states. I can't who it might favor, but I think voter turnout is going to be hurt.

[someguy]

Originally Posted by Jim Colyer

I think Romney will get 270-plus.

Care to explain how?

Originally Posted by Erroneous

I believe the recent storm is going to hurt voting in several northeastern states. I can't who it might favor, but I think voter turnout is going to be hurt.

Yeah Sandy is gonna take a hit on the eastern states but it doesn't look like the impact will be big enough to swing one state over to another side. NY and NJ are heavily favoured for Obama anyways, and PA wasn't impacted too much by the storm to make a huge difference on turnout.

How bad was the damage in Virginia?

[AceD]

Originally Posted by someguy

Does anyone know if there's a likelihood that Obama could win the EV but lose the popular vote? I haven't really paid attention to the popular vote so I don't want to make any predictions on that.

I have read a few places that think it's very possible. As your disclaimer stated this is not an opinion simply what some are saying... Romney needs to destroy Obama with the white vote (something McCain just about did and still won the white majority). There's some talk that some "traditional" black voters who were 100% in Obama's camp are retreating do to his stance on using the Bible to support his gay marriage stance, and that some of those voters are now 50/50 or not going to vote at all. It can't be overstated how well Obama's team did in '08 at getting historic non-voters to vote, and there's a feeling in some circles that there are a lot of people disillusioned enough by Obama but not ready to vote for anyone else. Ultimately non-voters and third-party voters still probably help Obama, but the margin is legitimately closer.

Someguy, have you read the speculation that the EC could end in an exact tie? It's not likely but certainly possible... in which case the House elects the president (in a straight-up vote, no extra points for bigger states) and the Senate elects the VP. Which would likely mean 4 years of Romney-Biden. Can you imagine? Oy.

I love this sort of strategy talk and would love to here Mr Coyler's plan to get Romney to 270.

All of your storm thoughts I agree with, with the same question about Virginia. Ultimately, it probably really does come down to Ohio. If Obama wins that his lead becomes fairly insurmountable.

[Brando @$$ Fat]

I see the electoral college as too much of an uphill battle for Romney. It'd be one thing if the toss-up states were traditionally Republican, but they're not really. I think Obama will take Virginia and NH, which will be enough to win. I see him falling just below 300, which will be a lot less impressive than his win in 2008. A win's a win, though.

[someguy]

Originally Posted by AceD

Someguy, have you read the speculation that the EC could end in an exact tie? It's not likely but certainly possible... in which case the House elects the president (in a straight-up vote, no extra points for bigger states) and the Senate elects the VP. Which would likely mean 4 years of Romney-Biden. Can you imagine? Oy.

There was a very (VERY) brief moment where this was considered but the chances are really small. PA and MI appear to be safe for Obama, so at that point all he needs is IA, NV and OH (all of which have Obama ahead in the polls). I take the 'never say never' route myself on things but the chances of a tie happening are incredibly low.

What I think will be interesting about this election is how much of an impact Obama's ground game makes on the results. States like NC and FL appear to have a decent Romney lead (up until today at least) but some people are arguing that Obama's strength on the ground is being underestimated. If NC ends up flipping for Obama (which I think is unlikely but we'll see) it'll be a testament to how well the Democrats have mastered their campaigning.

As for the popular vote it looks unlikely that Obama will lose to Romney there. My biggest concern was that the turnout in the south would be high enough to get Romney over the top in PV but after looking into it that doesn't look like it'll happen.

It was a pretty terrible day for Romney polling-wise. Obama was up or tied in pretty much every swing state poll, and it looks like Romney's bounce from the 1st debate has mostly eroded. The storm could have had an impact on this but it's hard to tell. Either way Obama supporters are starting to feel pretty comfortable about Tuesday night.

[Jim Colyer]

MITT ROMNEY 270
All of you who love this country, let's roll! Mitt Romney needs 270 electoral votes. Let's give them to him. We need a president who reflects what America is, and Mitt Romney is the man. There are 538 votes in the Electoral College. Romney needs a majority. 270 will put him in the White House. Let's go!

[someguy]

Take that to a different thread.

If you think Romney will get 270 show/tell us how.

[Jim Colyer]

Romney is pushing into Democratic territories like Pennsylvania. They keep talking about "battleground states" like Ohio, Virginia and Florida. It may be close. Romney should get the popular vote with no trouble. I believe he will win the electoral college by a small margin. November 6 is coming fast.

[someguy]

The national polls are starting to reflect the state polls now, Obama's starting to take the lead.

As Nate Silver puts it on his site, the argument for Obama is simple: he's leading in Ohio with a margin that all but guarantees a victory (his lead in polls is about 2 points, and usually anyone with a lead that big in OH ends up winning the state). Going by the polls the question now might be by how much will Romney lose.

[Jim Colyer]

I think people have known whom they are voting for ever since the night Romney got the Republican nomination. Hard to believe that in an election as polarized as this that anyone could still be undecided. Obama has no plan for a second term except to continue what he has done up to now, and that is to try to reduce America to Third World status. I'll admit it is hard even for Romney to say what his policies are before taking office because the world is constantly changing. Policies evolve as time goes on. It is natural for Democrats to lead in the early voting. They are an impetuous lot. Republicans, however, being more conservative, tend to wait until election day. It shows their discipline and restraint. Mitt Romney has been coming from behind since 2007. This year, he rose to the occasion by overtaking Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum. Hmm... Santorum. That's a name I nearly forgot. So Romney still has the momentum (Mittmentum, they call it) as things come to a point. In 4 nights, we will know. My bet is that Romney will overtake his final opponent in the end as he overtook his rivals in the primaries. Years from now, the Obama Interlude will be a question in the latest version of trivial pursuit.

[someguy]

It's almost certain that Obama will win. The NYT did a nice little interactive feature that shows the paths Romney and Obama need to win the 9 remaining swing states. Obama has 431 ways to win, while Romney only has 76.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...ite-house.html

[jeo4]

I've seen Missouri swing back and forth in past races, so I'm not sure it's a given that they will vote Republican. Until 2008, Missouri had voted for the winning candidate over the past several elections. Chances are there will be enough white conservative Americans to swing the state toward Romney, but I wouldn't consider it a solid pick. Still, the vote tends to be conservative.

I think your map above is a close prediction of the outcome, except that I believe Colorado and Virginia could both wind up being democratic as well. Even if both states sway to the Republican side, I don't see Pennsylvania doing so.

Based on those predictions, I could see President Obama winning by just about five to six percent of the popular vote, or somewhere between 291 electoral votes and 302 electoral votes.