#41  
Old 11-20-2005, 02:03 PM
Great. I'm glad we understand each other. I hate it when things start to turn nasty. I can see your point perfectly as well.
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  #42  
Old 11-20-2005, 02:14 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
I am not the one with the problem here.
You never are. The rest of Joblo.com just magically decided to be aggressive against Madsen for no particular reason, am I right?
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  #43  
Old 11-20-2005, 02:27 PM
Thanks for the contribution Heart Collector. It's really appreciated. Good stuff. I look forward to future insights from you. I hope they are as incisive and provocative as this one. You really know how to enter a discussion at the perfect time and make the perfect comment. Quite a talent. Keep up the good work.
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  #44  
Old 11-20-2005, 04:30 PM
So about that 100 million + opening for potter....
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  #45  
Old 11-20-2005, 04:34 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by EDsoulsurvive*
So about that 100 million + opening for potter....
It is very impressive.
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  #46  
Old 11-20-2005, 05:06 PM
LMAO

Not trying to put words in your mouth Madsen or make shit up or all or any of the stuff you normally accuse people of doing who don't agree with you but almost EVERY arguement in this section of the bbs has you as one of the participants and I commend you for it. You make a sarcastic remark or comment about a movie or someones posting and when someone calls you on it you act like your the party who has been wronged loooool..Your the Barry Bonds of Joblo.com
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  #47  
Old 11-20-2005, 05:33 PM
Every time I think it's resolved and we're moving forward... I never accused you of doing any of those things optimus. I have no problem whatsoever with someone disagreeing with me. That is not the issue and it never was. People around here disagree all the time and have civil discussions. What I don't like is when words are put in my mouth. And it does happen. It happened here, so I cleared it up. I explained exactly what I meant (and what I didn't mean). What I never do is accuse someone of putting words in my mouth just because they disagree with me. To say otherwise is complete bullshit. Now, I hope this is the end of that.
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  #48  
Old 11-21-2005, 12:10 AM
So much for that PG-13 rating possibly hurting HP. Mainstream media movie reporters are idiots.
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  #49  
Old 11-21-2005, 12:38 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by Badbird
So much for that PG-13 rating possibly hurting HP. Mainstream media movie reporters are idiots.
The question is whether HP will have sticking power. That will truly tell.

Azkaban had an equally impressive opening, but it had a 61% drop in its second week. Because next weekend is thanksgiving weekend, I doubt that it will have the same fate.

I hope that it will be successful. But time will tell.
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  #50  
Old 11-21-2005, 02:09 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by Badbird
So much for that PG-13 rating possibly hurting HP. Mainstream media movie reporters are idiots.
Excerpt of an article from Box Office Mojo:

Quote:
Harry Potter's 'Goblet' Runneth Over with Cash
by Brandon Gray
November 20, 2005

From Hogwarts School came a lesson to the industry: conjure appealing pictures and the audience will appear.

After weeks of movies that were weak on paper let alone in theaters, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire dispelled the year-to-year slump temporarily, posting the biggest opening weekend gross ever outside of May. Including Walk the Line's solid start, overall weekend business was the fourth highest on record with the top 12 pictures generating an estimated $171 million—a 19 percent improvement over the comparable period last year.

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire drew an estimated $101.4 million from 3,858 locations, setting a new opening high for the franchise in terms of gross and selling about as many tickets as the first movie, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, did out of the gate. The debut also ranks as the fourth biggest of all time in terms of gross, behind Spider-Man's $114.8 million, Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith's $108.4 million and Shrek 2's $108 million.

Warner Bros.' fourth J.K. Rowling adaptation reportedly cost about $150 million to make, and the studio's exit polling indicated that 60 percent of the audience was female. Their research also suggested that moviegoers are aging with Harry—42 percent were 17 years old and younger, compared to the 60 percent for Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban's opening.

"It's skewing a little older as the books get older," said Warner Bros.' head of distribution, Dan Fellman. "It's just a natural progression. We've been very true to the books with the movies, and the audience is expanding." Adding to Goblet of Fire's buzz was the release of Rowling's latest book, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, in July. "To have the new book and the movie in the same year is a winning combination," noted Jeff Goldstein, the studio's executive vice president and general sales manager of distribution.
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  #51  
Old 11-21-2005, 07:46 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by Badbird
So much for that PG-13 rating possibly hurting HP. Mainstream media movie reporters are idiots.
Is this entry a lot darker than previous ones? Everyone talked about how much darker the last one was compared to the first two. How does this one compare? I think it's interesting that the audience for the series is getting older.

Last edited by MadsenOMC; 11-21-2005 at 07:55 AM..
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  #52  
Old 11-21-2005, 11:13 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by The Heart Collector
You never are. The rest of Joblo.com just magically decided to be aggressive against Madsen for no particular reason, am I right?
To be honest, I think Madsen IS unfairly criticized quite often. And usually this is done based on the assumption that he gives all movies bad reviews. And that is not even remotely true.
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  #53  
Old 11-21-2005, 11:20 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by psudoazn
The question is whether HP will have sticking power. That will truly tell.

Azkaban had an equally impressive opening, but it had a 61% drop in its second week. Because next weekend is thanksgiving weekend, I doubt that it will have the same fate.

I hope that it will be successful. But time will tell.
I think the problem with HP series is that they are increasingly operating among their fanbase. When you have a 4th film in the series, which looks very similar to previous entries, it's hard anymore to appeal to the audience which didn't fall in love with the previous films.

The thing is, SS had the biggest amount of audiences who checked it out of curiosity. And with each installment this crossover audience has grown smaller and smaller. Lot's of people were converted to the HP phenomenom, but those who weren't are unlikely to be converted at this point - They just don't care.

I'm one of those people. I saw 3 previous flicks in theatres, but I'm waiting for DVD with this one. I moderately liked the previous films. They were well made. HP3 was superbly made. But I just feel indifferent to the stories and the characters.

Since HP films are increasingly operating on their fanbase, I expect them to be increasingly front-loaded and less leggy with each installment.

While the fanbase is not showing any fatigue towards the series, I think the crossover audience is.

HP4 is going to do great next weekend, but after that it will get killed in respective weekends by Narnia and Kong, both of whom appeal largely to the same audience. But considering that HP4 will have already over 200 million in the bag when Narnia comes out, the studio will be rolling in money.

Last edited by Tuukka; 11-21-2005 at 11:24 AM..
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  #54  
Old 11-21-2005, 12:03 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Tuukka
I think the problem with HP series is that they are increasingly operating among their fanbase. When you have a 4th film in the series, which looks very similar to previous entries, it's hard anymore to appeal to the audience which didn't fall in love with the previous films.

The thing is, SS had the biggest amount of audiences who checked it out of curiosity. And with each installment this crossover audience has grown smaller and smaller. Lot's of people were converted to the HP phenomenom, but those who weren't are unlikely to be converted at this point - They just don't care.

Since HP films are increasingly operating on their fanbase, I expect them to be increasingly front-loaded and less leggy with each installment.

While the fanbase is not showing any fatigue towards the series, I think the crossover audience is.


I agree. That is my concern for this movie.

Here is the thing. From the article I quoted above, it said that they sold about as many tickets as HP1. Additionally, exit polls showed that only 40% of the audience was under 17. Azkaban had an audience that was 60% under 17 according to that article. It could certainly mean that 20% of the people who camped HP3 are older now. But it could also mean that there are a few more adults watching the series as well. If we had more detailed statistics, though, it would be able to determine what the statistics more accurately mean.

Quote:
I'm one of those people. I saw 3 previous flicks in theatres, but I'm waiting for DVD with this one. I moderately liked the previous films. They were well made. HP3 was superbly made. But I just feel indifferent to the stories and the characters.
HP4 was very well made as well. Its somewhat like HP3 -- they heavily streamlined the original book to make this a thriller. More importantly, the characters get more interesting because Newell does a great job of making them more human. If you moderately liked the other films, I think that you could get enjoyment out of a matinee ticket.



Quote:
HP4 is going to do great next weekend, but after that it will get killed in respective weekends by Narnia and Kong, both of whom appeal largely to the same audience. But considering that HP4 will have already over 200 million in the bag when Narnia comes out, the studio will be rolling in money.
I think you are right. If Harry Potter makes 230-250 million domestically (which is possible if they get 60 million this weekend), I think that WB will be more than content. Afterall, it is the international market and the DVD market where they rake in the huge bucks. Interestingly enough, along these lines, I read an unconfirmed article that the DVD will be released in early April with 15 minutes of extra footage and directors commentaries.

As for Kong/Narnia...do you think that they are going to be the type of movies that open with 65-100 million dollar openings? Or do you think they will open with moderately big openings (40-65m) and stay strong because of strong WOM?
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  #55  
Old 11-21-2005, 12:13 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by psudoazn
As for Kong/Narnia...do you think that they are going to be the type of movies that open with 65-100 million dollar openings? Or do you think they will open with moderately big openings (40-65m) and stay strong because of strong WOM?
Hard to say... Both films are heavily marketed big event films. Directors of both films have a extremely strong recent track record. And both benefit from a pre-existing brand name and awareness. Narnia also will likely benefit from the church-effect. It's gonna attract a lot of christian moviegoers.

But so far almost nobody has seen either film, and that's the big question mark.

I think both will open north 60 million, but it's hard to say before the reviews start coming in. Narnia has the upper hand because it's only 2 hours, but I think KK is gonna have the bigger hype.
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  #56  
Old 11-21-2005, 12:26 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by MadsenOMC
Is this entry a lot darker than previous ones? Everyone talked about how much darker the last one was compared to the first two. How does this one compare? I think it's interesting that the audience for the series is getting older.
The movie is incredibly darker than the previous ones. I think that part 4 has a different type of darkness. In part 3, it was just a dark atmosphere because of the introduction of one death eater. In this one it has dark atmosphere and an increasingly dark storyline. Unlike previous films, viewers can believe that the characters are vulnerable to getting hurt or worse. In fact, in the opening scene a caretaker gets killed (obviously in a non-bloody way). (That was not really a significant spoiler by any means).

Violence in these films wont really phaze us -- who have been subjected to much more graphic scenes of death. But it is an indicator of the fact that things are changing and getting increasingly darker in the HP world.

Last edited by inglourious basterd; 11-21-2005 at 12:32 PM..
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  #57  
Old 11-22-2005, 05:39 PM
harry potter made 8 mil monday

walk the line 2 mil

and chickin little managed to squeeze in 1 mil
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  #58  
Old 11-23-2005, 11:23 AM
Good drop for Potter on Monday. That is a little better than the first installment's drop. Not as good as the thrid's, since that was during the Summer, but this one has the advantage of a four-day holiday weekend coming up.

It was funny as hell to see Potter raise it's actuals from 39 to 40 million for Friday. Can it pass $200 million by the end of the weekend? Doubtful (I see this happening on Tuesday), but that would make it the only movie to do that on its 10th day. Only SM 1 & 2, and SWIII made it there faster.

If GoF keeps this up, it'll become the biggest 5-day, and biggest 3-day for Thanksgiving, a record the first HP still holds.

Walk the Line is doing fantastic, and Chicken Little passed $100 million on Monday.
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  #59  
Old 11-23-2005, 03:47 PM
Harry potter

Weekday update by the way can anyone take cover for the rest of the week for this thread im on vacation in florida till sunday so thanks if anyone does.


Monday- 8 mil

Tuesday- 9 mil

Looks Like Harry potter went up!!!!
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  #60  
Old 11-24-2005, 05:15 PM
Wednesday Numbers

Wednesday Numbers (showbizdata.com)

1. HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE 14,120,000
2. RENT 4,970,000
3. YOURS, MINE & OURS 3,359,000
4. WALK THE LINE 3,345,000
5. CHICKEN LITTLE 2,370,000
6. JUST FRIENDS 2,031,000
7. PRIDE AND PREJUDICE 1,120,000
8. IN THE MIX 848,000
9. DERAILED 690,000
10. ZATHURA 612,000

Harry potter CAN NOT BE STOPPED!!!

...And ouch for The Ice Harvest....not even in the top 10.
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  #61  
Old 11-24-2005, 06:14 PM
I see Get Rich or Die Tryin' has dropped out of the top ten.

It looks like they failed to obtain the first half of the title.
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  #62  
Old 11-25-2005, 06:35 PM
hey guys i loged onto my friends laptop b4 going to dinner (im still on vacation till sunday in florida) well here is thursday top 10 someone please post tomorrows estimates, thanks in advance


Thursday, November, 24, 2005 Title Daily Total
HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE 12.4----- 145.7
WALK THE LINE 4.6---- 34.8
YOURS, MINE & OURS 3.8---- 7.2
RENT 2.4---- 7.4
JUST FRIENDS 2.3----- 4.3
CHICKEN LITTLE 1.9----- 105.4
PRIDE AND PREJUDICE 1.2---- 8.8
DERAILED .9 -----24.6
IN THE MIX .9----- 1.7
ICE HARVEST .8---- 1.3

Harry potter went down a bit. walk the line went up a lot, youres mine and ours is doing decent, rent fell almost 50% just friends went up ( im porb seeing it when i get back), chickin little went down and p and p went up i think same for derailed, in the mix and the ice harvest.



By the way thanks backstabba for posting weds est.

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  #63  
Old 11-25-2005, 08:18 PM
Wow...145.7 million by Thursday. It can very possibly hit 200 million this weekend. Only time will tell though.
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  #64  
Old 11-26-2005, 09:42 AM
People would rather see In the Mix than The Ice Harvest?????!


I mean, they are both tanking badly, but The Ice Harvest should DEFINATLEY be a head of In the Mix!
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  #65  
Old 11-26-2005, 11:00 AM
Hey guys im on vacation, just woke up and well i stoped by to post the....


FRIDAY EST!!!

Title Daily Total
HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE 22.8---- 168.5
WALK THE LINE 7.8----- 42.6
YOURS, MINE & OURS 7.0---- 14.2
CHICKEN LITTLE 5.4---- 110.9
RENT 4.3----- 11.7
JUST FRIENDS 3.8----- 8.1
PRIDE AND PREJUDICE 2.8----- 11.6
DERAILED 1.8---- 26.4
IN THE MIX 1.7----- 3.5
ICE HARVEST 1.5----- 2.8

Well it looks like harry potter is headed for a 55-60 mil this weekend passing the 200 million mark, Walk the line held up outstandingly, yours mine and ours went up majorly, same with chickin little and rent, just friends has a nice increase same with p and p and derailed continues to hold up better then expected, in the mix went up still isnt going to make much money but the budget on it was prob low, well for ice harvest all i can say is, pray for a quick death.
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  #66  
Old 11-26-2005, 11:41 AM
Harry Potter is a monster that even unruly villagers can't stop.
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  #67  
Old 11-26-2005, 01:56 PM
It's assured that the best release for the Potter film is around Thanksgiving, and not so much the summer.

Great hold for Walk the Line. Word of mouth must be excellent.
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  #68  
Old 11-26-2005, 02:56 PM
Rent will have an opening that is very similar to Alexander's last year, and that movie ended up with only $34 million total. Considering that it has already showed signs of slowing down, its prospects aren't too promising. It doesn't appear to be crossing over well. An OK opening, but far from great. Same with Just Friends. Looks to make about $15 million over the five-day weekend. Nothing special really, but not terrible. Good numbers for HP, Walk the Line and Yours, Mine and Ours. Clear winners for this weekend.
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  #69  
Old 11-26-2005, 09:56 PM
BOM raised it a million to $23.7million. Looks like Goblet of Fire now holds the record for biggest Friday and now second Friday as well. Whoa.

It is likely a lock to hit $200 million on Sunday (!!), and might even pull off a $60 million weekend. Not likely, but close.

Last edited by Arc; 11-26-2005 at 09:59 PM..
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  #70  
Old 11-27-2005, 11:18 AM
Estimates for
Saturday, November, 26, 2005 Title Daily Total

HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE 20.1--- 188.6

WALK THE LINE 7.7----- 50.3

YOURS, MINE & OURS 6.7----- 20.9

CHICKEN LITTLE 4.9--- 115.8

RENT 3.8---- 15.6

JUST FRIENDS 3.7---- 11.8

PRIDE AND PREJUDICE 2.8---- 14.3

IN THE MIX 1.9--- 5.4

DERAILED 1.8--- 28.3

ICE HARVEST 1.5----- 4.2


Looks like harry potter will hit the 200 mil mark good ass hold for walk the line, rent went down, chikcin little went down i think, just friends stayed put (6/10), Yours mine and ours went a bit down and the rest of the bottom half pretty much wen t up.
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  #71  
Old 11-27-2005, 12:12 PM
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend...wknd=47&p=.htm
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  #72  
Old 11-27-2005, 12:16 PM
3 day est-

1- Harry potter- 54.9--- 201.1 mil

2- walk the line- 19.7 mil-- 54 mil

3 youres mines and ours 17.4 mil---- 24 mil

4- Chickin Little 12.4 mil---- 118.2 mil

5- Rent- 10.7 mil ---- 18.2 mil

6- Just Friends 9.2 mil ---- 13.6 mil

7- Pride and P- 7 mil- 15 mil

8- Zathura 4.9 mil--- 26 mil

9- derailed 4.7--- 29.4

10- In the Mix 4.4 mil- 6.1 mil

11- Ice Harvest- 3.7mil --- 5 mil

12- Jarhead 2.8 mil---- 59.4 mil

Last edited by NightStalkerGtx; 11-27-2005 at 12:25 PM..
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  #73  
Old 11-27-2005, 12:18 PM
In limited release, Syriana had a screen average of $74,400, earning 372,000 total this weekend.

Harry Potter has officially crossed the 200 million mark.

Last edited by Lazy Boy; 11-27-2005 at 02:41 PM..
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  #74  
Old 11-27-2005, 02:11 PM
Question is where it will top off...my guess is that it will be around 280-310 million.

Especially with Narnia and Kong around the corner.
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  #75  
Old 11-28-2005, 06:17 PM
im saying 270-290 mil
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  #76  
Old 11-28-2005, 10:19 PM
Next weekend looks pretty weak. I dont know whether Aeon Flux has the legs to take the top spot from HP. I don't believe that the market is salivating for films based on anime. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if HP continues its dominance of the box office hitting 30 million in the next weekend. I think that it'll finally drop when Narnia comes out. (If HP gets 30 million this weekend, then I think that itll be around 240 million domestically on sunday. It would set things up perfectly for the film to peak at around 280-300 million).

Walk the Line will continue to kick ass as well. It surprisingly had a less than 20% drop last week. Incredible.

Heres a question for you guys....Do you think that Narnia will have the success that Potter and LOTR had?

The reason that Potter has been a billion dollar industry at the box office is because of the fact that it was released during the time that its buzz was hottest.

As for LOTR...that has been something that fans have wanted for years.

Is there as huge a Narnia fanbase? Will the series be inspired enough to survive the comparisons to LOTR and to win over new fans? I'm interested in seeing how it pans out. These epics can't be cheap and I'd hate to see the day that an epic project flopped. I'm not suggesting that Narnia will flop (I don't really know about its fanbase). But I think it may be possible for a big budget epic trilogy to flop.

Last edited by inglourious basterd; 11-28-2005 at 10:24 PM..
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  #77  
Old 11-30-2005, 05:25 AM
Quote:
Originally posted by psudoazn
Is there as huge a Narnia fanbase? Will the series be inspired enough to survive the comparisons to LOTR and to win over new fans? I'm interested in seeing how it pans out. These epics can't be cheap and I'd hate to see the day that an epic project flopped. I'm not suggesting that Narnia will flop (I don't really know about its fanbase). But I think it may be possible for a big budget epic trilogy to flop.
Narnia is very well known in some countries. UK and USA probably have the biggest fanbase. It's important to note the christian aspect - The story is a parallel for new testament and the church is very supportive of both the book and the movie. The same guys who handled the marketing for Passion of the christ are handling the christian demographic for Narnia. Churches are going to see it - There are already reports for church bookings in theatres.

And according to screenings so far the film is very good. Entertaining, fun and well made. It's also "only" 2 hours long, which helps.

Then there is the kiddie/family factor. Narnia is playing straight to that audience and traditionally big kiddie event picks do well - And christmas time is going to help.

It's a lock for 200 million, IMHO. Should end up in the 250-300 million range if the WOM is good enough. Shrek movies were megahits and this is from the same director - His track record hints at good WOM.

KK will steal some of it's thunder, but the films can co-exist.

Last edited by Tuukka; 11-30-2005 at 05:30 AM..
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  #78  
Old 11-30-2005, 10:36 AM
hary potter made 2 mil on monday and walk the line 1 mil harry potters wound is losing its magic
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  #79  
Old 11-30-2005, 01:46 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by Tuukka
Narnia is very well known in some countries. UK and USA probably have the biggest fanbase. It's important to note the christian aspect - The story is a parallel for new testament and the church is very supportive of both the book and the movie. The same guys who handled the marketing for Passion of the christ are handling the christian demographic for Narnia. Churches are going to see it - There are already reports for church bookings in theatres.

.
I must have been an inept child. =p

When I was forced to read this as a chilld, I didn't catch any of that. But that is interesting. It will be interesting to see how ths works out. The Christian demographic in America is huge and largely untapped. I'm interesting in seeing how this works out.
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  #80  
Old 11-30-2005, 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally posted by NightStalkerGtx
hary potter made 2 mil on monday and walk the line 1 mil harry potters wound is losing its magic
For HP, I find this link fascinating. Even though it only made $2m on monday, it seems to line up perfectly with HP1. It looks like history may be repeating itself.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdow...arrypotter.htm

Mondays are typically slow, right? I think that the Monday grosses were as expected (for HP and WTL)-- especially on the Monday after the 4 day weekend.
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