Box Office Predictions Thread

[Bourne101]

You're looking at percentage return, I'm looking at absolute profit. If we're talking about percentage return, then sure it has a very good chance, but in terms of actual profit... not a chance.

[dellamorte dellamore]

Originally Posted by CyclicNightmare

Based on return on investment, that statement isn't far-fetched.

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/records/budgets.php

Right now the #1 is Blair Witch. And this has what, 1/3 the budget. So it would only have to make 1/3 the profit. Blair Witch made $248 mil worldwide. One third of that should be no problem.

That's what i'm referring too, Roi, PA should take the top spot as the most profitable with regards to how much it cost and how much it will make at the box office.

Blair's budget is a bit misleading. The original budget was about 35,000, but Artisan gave them 200,000 plus( i don't know the actual number) to improve some aspects for theatrical distribution. Of course this would be a small expense in the digital age, but they were dealing with high 8 and 16mm, editing in 1999 was a bit more arcane and expensive back then.


ps- can someone tell me what in the Tarnation is Tarnation, it's currently number two on the list of most profitable with regards to Roi( it only had a budget of 218 dollars and it made over a mil). I may have to seek it out now

[MisterChristian]

Tarnation

Synopsis:

Jonathan Caouette's spellbinding debut film Tarnation re-imagines the whole idea of what a documentary can be. Having filmed his life since he was eleven years old, Caouette has woven together a psychedelic whirlwind of snapshots, super-8 home movies, answering machine messages, video diaries, early short films, snippets of '80s pop culture and dramatic re-enactments to create an epic portrait of an American family torn apart by dysfunction and reunited through the power of love.

Tarnation begins in 2003 as Caouette learns of his mother's lithium overdose back in his native Texas. Faced with the haunting remnants of his past, including a family history of mental illness, abuse and neglect, Caouette returns home to aid in his mother's recovery. During this time, he rekindles a touching relationship with his mother, another victim of a tumultuous childhood and discovers that family ties are never truly unbound.

Will seek this out too!

[Bourne101]

Predictions for the Weekend of October 16th-18th

1. Where the Wild Things Are- $40 million
2. Paranormal Activity- $20 million
3. Couples Retreat- $17 million
4. The Stepfather- $12 million
5. Law Abiding Citizen- $10 million
6. Zombieland- $9.75 million
7. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs- $9 million
8. Surrogates- $2.5 million
9. The Invention of Lying- $2 million
10. Whip It- $1.75 million

Where the Wild Things Are should take the top spot. Paranormal Activity should take the #2 spot, though I'm leaving my prediction blank until the theatre count is released. Couples Retreat should continue to do pretty well. I don't see The Stepfather or Law Abiding Citizen lighting up the box-office. Zombieland and Meatballs should continue to do well.

[ericdraven]

I think Stepfather has like no hype whatsoever, but it does have the dude from Nip/Tuck. WHOOO

[Bourne101]

Originally Posted by ericdraven

I think Stepfather has like no hype whatsoever, but it does have the dude from Nip/Tuck. WHOOO

Yeah. If it were released like in January or something on a weekend by itself and was marketed like crazy, I could see it doing high teens to low twenties, but on such a packed weekend with another horror film that is receiving far more buzz, it doesn't have much of a chance for big success.

[MarcoG]

I'm really bummed out that Paranormal Activity will be released on the same weekend as Where The Wild Things Are.
I'm sure even if WTWTA is N0. 1# at the Box Office, it will no doubt be hurt by the last minute thrill seekers who want to see Paranormal Activity.

And I feel really bad for The Stepfather. Amber Heard just can't catch a break.
It seems any money it would have made is now going to go directly to Paranormal.

If WTWTA doesn't take the top spot, or does but doesn't make as much as it could've because of PA, I'm gonna be pissed!

[LordSimen]

I'll be more pissed if WTWTA damages PA's potential gross.

[Bourne101]

I don't think either of those films is going to hurt each other when it comes to box-office gross. I realize that WTWTA appeals to a wide range of audiences, but the majority of its audience is going to be kids and families. I'm sure both films will be fine.

[ericdraven]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

I'll be more pissed if WTWTA damages PA's potential gross.

yeah, a cliche horror film will be destroyed by probably a somewhat a original movie. I agree.

[LordSimen]

Originally Posted by ericdraven

yeah, a cliche horror film will be destroyed by probably a somewhat a original movie. I agree.

Actually the situation would be more accurately described as a perfect masterpiece of the horror genre being destroyed by an overhyped, but good looking movie which people seem to only like because of a dumb ass song used in the trailer that made them cry.

But hey, to each their own.

[ericdraven]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

Actually the situation would be more accurately described as a perfect masterpiece of the horror genre being destroyed by an overhyped, but good looking movie which people seem to only like because of a dumb ass song used in the trailer that made them cry.

But hey, to each their own.

LOL. yeah, I see you don't get the appeal of Wild Things, so I won't even debate you on it because you obviously won't be seeing it, and wasting your time with it.

[LordSimen]

I'm going to see Wild Things, Draven. I even said it was good-looking. I've just yet to see anything that has convinced me it's going to be the greatest masterpiece to end all masterpieces and it's going to take far more than Arcade Shit's music to convince me of that. I also fail to understand how it's the original movie, yet it's an adaptation of a god damn book. That's pure bullshit.

[Bourne101]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

an overhyped, but good looking movie which people seem to only like because of a dumb ass song used in the trailer that made them cry.

How do you know it is over-hyped? You haven't seen it. For all you know it could be a masterpiece.

[LordSimen]

Originally Posted by Bourne101

How do you know it is over-hyped? You haven't seen it. For all you know it could be a masterpiece.

People are saying the trailers alone made them cry. That's overhyped.

[Bourne101]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

People are saying the trailers alone made them cry. That's overhyped.

Something can't be called over-hyped until it has been seen and deemed over-hyped. You may get the feeling it is over-hyped, but if you see it and think it is a masterpiece then you will have agreed with the hype.

[MarcoG]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

Actually the situation would be more accurately described as a perfect masterpiece of the horror genre being destroyed by an overhyped, but good looking movie which people seem to only like because of a dumb ass song used in the trailer that made them cry.

But hey, to each their own.

On the contrary, people are attached to WTWTA because it evokes strong nostalgic and child-like emotions to when many of us were kids. It's pretty minor to come across anyone who didn't love and/or fear the book when they were small.

This has nothing to do with making anyone "cry" because they love the music. The book is over 30 years old and has been read by millions of parents and children alike.

Paranormal Activity, while I really enjoyed it and had lots of fun at the theater, is nothing more than an hour and a half long Youtube video made to scare people, and the majority of people being scared are unknowingly just scaring themselves. I don't know if that's the effect of the movie or the fact that audiences have been raised as pussies, but I'm inclined to lean more towards the second option.

If a door opening and closing and lights turning on and off is your prime example of what a perfect masterpiece of horror should be, then horror died a long time ago. And so did it's ever fickle audience. And trust me, horror is by far my favorite genre.

People can either choose candy with Paranormal Activity, or meat with WTWTA. I think we had enough candy this year

[LordSimen]

Originally Posted by Bourne101

Something can't be called over-hyped until it has been seen and deemed over-hyped.

When a good trailer for movie is released but blown out of proportion as being the best trailer on the planet that made people cry because of it's shitty ass choice of music, I'm sorry but that movie is officially overhyped. Something can clearly be overhyped before it has been scene. You know what that happens when literally hearing about the movie anymore starts to annoy you.

[MarcoG]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

I'm going to see Wild Things, Draven. I even said it was good-looking. I've just yet to see anything that has convinced me it's going to be the greatest masterpiece to end all masterpieces and it's going to take far more than Arcade Shit's music to convince me of that. I also fail to understand how it's the original movie, yet it's an adaptation of a god damn book. That's pure bullshit.

............and yet I've seen Paranormal Activity and it STILL hasn't convinced me it's the scariest movie to end all scary movies.

Arcade Fire won't appear in the film. The movie has it's own original soundtrack. And when it comes to an hour and a half movie based off a book of only 10 or so sentences, you do the math. We haven't had a live-action family film taken this seriously in a long time. It's about that time!

[ericdraven]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

People are saying the trailers alone made them cry. That's overhyped.

and the trailers for PA are making people shit themselves.

[Bourne101]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

When a good trailer for movie is released but blown out of proportion as being the best trailer on the planet that made people cry because of it's shitty ass choice of music, I'm sorry but that movie is officially overhyped.

Oh Simen, you and your logical ways. How ever could I have doubted you?

[LordSimen]

Originally Posted by MarcoG

............and yet it's ok for people to say paranormal Activity is quite frankly the scariest movie of all-time? Or that, in your words, is a "perfect masterpiece of the horror genre"?

How are those two even remotely similiar?

Saying a movie is original when it's based on something else is simply false. An adaptation of this book may not have been done before, but that doesn't make it original- Because it's still an adaptation.

Whether or not a movie is scary to you? Or the scariest of all time? That's completely subjective, not based 'round any sort of fact. Whether or not WTWTA is an adaptation of a Children's book? That's a fact.

Originally Posted by MarcoG

Arcade Fire won't appear in the film.

Thank. God.

Originally Posted by ericdraven

and the trailers for PA are making people shit themselves.

The entire movie's making people shit themselves. That's truth in advertising.

[MarcoG]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

How are those two even remotely similiar?

Saying a movie is original when it's based on something else is simply false. An adaptation of this book may not have been done before, but that doesn't make it original- Because it's still an adaptation.

Whether or not a movie is scary to you? Or the scariest of all time? That's completely subjective, not based 'round any sort of fact. Whether or not WTWTA is an adaptation of a Children's book? That's a fact.

WTWTA is as original being based off a book as Paranormal Activity is original being spawned by such films as The Blair Witch Project, Home Movie, Cloverfield, [REC], etc.

We haven't seen a children's story taken with great adult care like this in a long time. And especially since it's an hour and a half film taken from only 10 sentences of a book, that's pretty original to me, and quite a daunting task if I may add.

Have you not seen any of the clips from the film? You should check them out. Some pretty heavy themes in there.

[LordSimen]

Originally Posted by MarcoG

WTWTA is as original being based off a book as Paranormal Activity is original being spawned by such films as The Blair Witch Project, Home Movie, Cloverfield, [REC], etc.

Yeah, sorry, but the way a movie is filmed does not decide whether it's plotline is original or not. The Blair Witch Project is an original movie despite oweing it's shooting style entirely to movies like Cannibal Holocaust and the Mockumentaries of the comedy genre. It's plot is it's own plot, it's not based on anything but itself. It's an original movie. It's not adaptation, it's not a spin off, a sequel, it's not a remake. It's an original movie. WTWTA? An adaptation. Unoriginal. Bottom line.

Originally Posted by MarcoG

Have you not seen any of the clips from the film? You should check them out. Some pretty heavy themes in there.

I have. The clips were decent.

[MarcoG]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

Yeah, sorry, but the way a movie is filmed does not decide whether it's plotline is original or not. The Blair Witch Project is an original movie despite oweing it's shooting style entirely to movies like Cannibal Holocaust and the Mockumentaries of the comedy genre. It's plot is it's own plot, it's not based on anything but itself. It's an original movie. It's not adaptation, it's not a spin off, a sequel, it's not a remake. It's an original movie. WTWTA? An adaptation. Unoriginal. Bottom line.

Bottom line is Paranormal Activity has been done, redone, and done to death again and again. There are far greater things in the WTWTA movie that are not in the book. As we all know, the movie isn't 15 minutes. There was nothing new in PA that hasn't been done to death before. Nothing.

It's pretty clear you already don't like WTWTA, and really now, if it's not your cup of tea, don't go see it.

[LordSimen]

Originally Posted by MarcoG

Bottom line is Paranormal Activity has been done, redone, and done to death again and again. There are far greater things in the WTWTA movie that are not in the book. As we all know, the movie isn't 15 minutes. There was nothing new to PA. Nothing.

Uhh.... WTWTA is an adaptation of a book. THERE'S LESS NEW THERE THAN IN PARANORMAL ACTIVITY.

Paranormal Activity, on the other hand, IS AN ORIGINAL MOVIE. No one's done Paranormal Activity before, no one's written about it's characters, no one's told that story before. It's it's own movie, it's an original movie.

ALL OF PARANORMAL ACTIVITY IS NEW, AS IT'S NOT AN ADAPTATION OF ANYTHING, NOR A SEQUEL TO SOMETHING, NOR A REMAKE, NOR IS IT LOOSELY BASED ON ANY SHORT STORY OR REAL LIFE EVENT. IT'S AN ORIGINAL PIECE OF MATERIAL.

That's the bottom line. What's truly clear is that you have no grasp on what original means if you think being an adaptation qualifies as being more original than an actual piece of originality, like Paranormal Activity.

[MarcoG]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

Uhh.... WTWTA is an adaptation of a book. THERE'S LESS NEW THERE THAN IN PARANORMAL ACTIVITY.

Paranormal Activity, on the other hand, IS AN ORIGINAL MOVIE. No one's done Paranormal Activity before, no one's written about it's characters, no one's told that story before. It's it's own movie, it's an original movie.

ALL OF PARANORMAL ACTIVITY IS NEW, AS IT'S NOT AN ADAPTATION OF ANYTHING, NOR A SEQUEL TO SOMETHING, NOR A REMAKE, NOR IS IT LOOSELY BASED ON ANY SHORT STORY OR REAL LIFE EVENT. IT'S AN ORIGINAL PIECE OF MATERIAL.

That's the bottom line. What's truly clear is that you have no grasp on what original means if you think being an adaptation qualifies as being more original than an actual piece of originality, like Paranormal Activity.

1) Paranormal Activity isn't original if there are 4968942 other ghost movies out there, and far better at that.

2) What's truely clear is you need a mommy, lol.

[LordSimen]

Originally Posted by MarcoG

1) Paranormal Activity isn't original if there are 4968942 other ghost movies out there, and far better at that.

Uhh, there's thousands of adaptations of children's books out there too. In fact there's an animated movie version of Where The Wild Things Are itself. There's also thousands of children's fantasy movies and books about kids going off to a far off land where they become kindred spirits with strange creatures. In fact that's one of the most common themes in most children's literature. So your logic is truly flawed, because that makes Where the Wild Things Are less original than Paranormal Activity by leaps and bounds.

[CyclicNightmare]

Hahaha.... arguing about Paranormal Activity vs. Where the Wild Things Are.

[MarcoG]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

Uhh, there's thousands of adaptations of children's books out there too. In fact there's an animated movie version of Where The Wild Things Are itself. There's also thousands of children's fantasy movies and books about kids going off to a far off land where they become kindred spirits with strange creatures. In fact that's one of the most common themes in most children's literature. So your logic is truly flawed, because that makes Where the Wild Things Are less original than Paranormal Activity by leaps and bounds.

If WTWTA is unoriginal, then so is a ghost story, as is Paranormal Activity. That's the plain simple fact. But like you said, it's how the movie's made and played out that makes it unique, no? In that case WTWTA looks to be very unique and promising. Regardless if my logic is "flawed" or if you don't like the music (maybe next time they can play music that you do like and all your agression towards this film can rest easy), WTWTA will without a doubt be a much better film in both acting, writing, and quality than Paranormal Activity.

Here's AICN review - http://www.aintitcool.com/node/42677

[MarcoG]

Originally Posted by CyclicNightmare

Hahaha.... arguing about Paranormal Activity vs. Where the Wild Things Are.

This is what happens when I have the day off =(

[LordSimen]

Originally Posted by MarcoG

But like you said, it's how the movie's made and played out that makes it unique, no?

I never said that. What I did say seems to be lost in translation, so let me break it down in the simplest way possible:

Where The Wild Things Are = An Adaptation = Unoriginal
Paranormal Activity =/= An adaptation or a sequel or prequel or a remake nor is it based on a true story so therefore = original

Bottom line.

Originally Posted by MarcoG

WTWTA will without a doubt be a much better film in both acting, writing, and quality than Paranormal Activity.

http://www.aintitcool.com/node/42677

I doubt that.

http://www.aintitcool.com/node/42499

http://www.aintitcool.com/node/42516

http://www.aintitcool.com/node/35402

Gasp. I can post glowing AICN reviews too! Imagine that?

[CyclicNightmare]

Christ.

[MarcoG]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

I doubt that.

..........And that's because you're all gimmick and no heart The trailer and clips already put PA to absolute shame. But like I said, you need a heart to really see that, which you don't


2nd AICN review - http://www.aintitcool.com/node/42679


At The Movies video review -
http://link.brightcove.com/services/...id=44289010001


M/C review - http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/2008-12-...rs-and-rumbles

[LordSimen]

Originally Posted by MarcoG

Then your lack of faith is disturbing

More reviews? Seriously? Fine, I'll do two things for you, one:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/paranormal_activity/ - Complete with a few negative reviews for you to gander at as well.

And two:
Gasp! A negative review! Guess it's already proven not to be the crying masterpiece all those people weeping at the trailer claim it to be.

[dellamorte dellamore]

I'm not so sure just how original PA is, it has almost the same premise and was filmed the same way as this film:


http://www.inmemoriumthemovie.com/synopsis.html

[LordSimen]

Originally Posted by dellamorte dellamore

I'm not so sure just how original PA is, it has almost the same premise and was filmed the same way as this film:


http://www.inmemoriumthemovie.com/synopsis.html

That plot doesn't sound anything like Paranormal Activity. The only similarity is that both characters in both movies document things, but so does Jeff Goldblum in The Fly- That doesn't make The Fly anything like PA or In Memorium.

[ericdraven]

Great, this is a LordSiemen argument thread now. I am out.

[MarcoG]

Originally Posted by LordSimen

More reviews? Seriously? Fine, I'll do two things for you, one:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/paranormal_activity/ - Complete with a few negative reviews for you to gander at as well.

And two:
Gasp! A negative review! Guess it's already proven not to be the crying masterpiece all those people weeping at the trailer claim it to be.

Someone like you has no business watching this film. AT ALL.
It's not about what how many reviews I post that make a difference, it's what's IN those reviews. And the negative reviews you posted STILL arn't calling the movie awful, which you seem to want.

The difference here is I already saw PA and it isn't all that. Like I've said before, there are countless Youtube videos (some of which I watched last night) that are far more scarier.
You cannot deny the power of WTWTA because if it's making ppl CRY by the trailers and clips alone, that says everything it needs to.

You can say the same for PA, if it isn't scary, then why are ppl raving about how scary it is? because it proves people getting scared over cheap gimmicks are pansies compared to the ppl crying over a complex emotional impact they seem to relate to. See how that works?

What seems more real to you? PA is shot in a "realistic" amatuer style and WTWTA is shot on a huge $80 million Hollywood budget, and yet WTWTA feels more REAL than anything PA can muster. It doesn't take much to make ppl JUMP and feel STARTLED, but it does take much more weight and depth to make someone cry................especially if ppl haven't even seen the film yet.

My advice? Don't go watch Wild Things. It's obviously not for you. You don't have the tender strength and nostalgic history to support such emtions and memories of the past (or present if you have kids).

[LordSimen]

Originally Posted by ericdraven

Great, this is a LordSiemen argument thread now. I am out.

It's funny because you were the one who technically started it. Typical.

Well whatever, I'm done arguing about this movie now. You guys are making me hate it more and more and I walked into this thread wanting to see it.