Box Office Predictions Thread

[stuDent12]

Originally Posted by ericdraven

A Christmas Carol - 35 million
Men Who Stare at Goats - 15 million
The Box - 11 million



The Fourth Kind - 6 million

Maybe if they released it before halloween it would have a chance?

yeah, remember P2 a couple of years back? yeah, neither do we.

[ericdraven]

Originally Posted by stuDent12

yeah, remember P2 a couple of years back? yeah, neither do we.

or Seed of Chucky two years ago.

[stuDent12]

Originally Posted by ericdraven

or Seed of Chucky two years ago.

correction, seed of chucky was 5 years ago. also people have said that twilight would have been bigger if released before halloween, don't you agree?

[Samfilms]

I have a feeling The Fourth Kind will do just fine. The trailers are creepy and it will be riding off the success of Paranormal Activity another Documentary style movie. The fourth Kind has alot going for it Aliens, Actual Footage, and that it is based on actual Case Files.

The Box will be a dud , i mean it is Richard Kelly who has been riding on Donnie Darko Success and hasn't been able to open a film. The Trailer and Commericals for this film is all over the place and i am sure Audience feel the same way. Trailers that leave Audience with a "WHAT KIND OF MOVIE IS THIS ?" question tend to do horrible. Just look at Southland Tales for similiarties.

Christmas Carol will open just fine, but will it hold is that actual question.

[stuDent12]

Originally Posted by Samfilms

I have a feeling The Fourth Kind will do just fine. The trailers are creepy and it will be riding off the success of Paranormal Activity another Documentary style movie. The fourth Kind has alot going for it Aliens, Actual Footage, and that it is based on actual Case Files.

The Box will be a dud , i mean it is Richard Kelly who has been riding on Donnie Darko Success and hasn't been able to open a film. The Trailer and Commericals for this film is all over the place and i am sure Audience feel the same way. Trailers that leave Audience with a "WHAT KIND OF MOVIE IS THIS ?" question tend to do horrible. Just look at Southland Tales for similiarties.

Christmas Carol will open just fine, but will it hold is that actual question.

i'm sure it won't repeat the polar express's runaway surprise smash run from 5 years earlier, but it'll have some nice holds thanksgiving to mid december, i'm sure of that.

you are so right about box and fourth kind. who the hell are they targeting anyway?

[ericdraven]

Originally Posted by stuDent12

correction, seed of chucky was 5 years ago. also people have said that twilight would have been bigger if released before halloween, don't you agree?

Actually, I think it would be too gimmicky, and it is being called the Harry Potter for girls, so November suits it fine.

[Bourne101]

Predictions for the Weekend of November 13th-15th

1. 2012- $65 million
2. A Christmas Carol- $20 million
3. Michael Jackson's This Is It- $8.5 million
4. The Men Who Stare at Goats- $8 million
5. The Fourth Kind- $6.25 million
6. Precious- $5.5 million
7. Couples Retreat- $5.25 million
8. Law Abiding Citizen- $5 million
9. Paranormal Activity- $4.75 million
10. The Box- $4 million

2012 should be pretty huge. It could do more than that, or if the past few weeks' disappointments are any indication, it could do less than that. A Christmas Carol should hold up pretty well as we get closer to Christmas.

[stuDent12]

Originally Posted by Bourne101

Predictions for the Weekend of November 13th-15th

1. 2012- $65 million
2. A Christmas Carol- $20 million
3. Michael Jackson's This Is It- $8.5 million
4. The Men Who Stare at Goats- $8 million
5. The Fourth Kind- $6.25 million
6. Couples Retreat- $5.25 million
7. Law Abiding Citizen- $5 million
8. Paranormal Activity- $4.75 million
9. The Box- $4 million
10. Precious- $

2012 should be pretty huge. It could do more than that, or if the past few weeks' disappointments are any indication, it could do less than that. A Christmas Carol should hold up pretty well as we get closer to Christmas. I'm leaving Precious blank for now because I don't know its theatre count for next weekend. As soon as I have it, I'll post my prediction.

What about pirate radio? i think it'll do quite decently. forget that overrated oprah movie.

[Bourne101]

Originally Posted by stuDent12

What about pirate radio? i think it'll do quite decently. forget that overrated oprah movie.

Pirate Radio is only in 900 theatres and certainly doesn't look like it will appeal to a very wide audience. It will probably just be on the outskirts of the top 10.

As for Precious, it had a $100,000 PTA this past weekend which is stellar. And also, the film was independent until Oprah came along and attached her name to it. The film had already been screened at some big film festivals before she attached her name to it. She had nothing to do with the actual film.

[Bourne101]

.

[stuDent12]

1.The twilight saga:new moon 85 mil
2. 2012 41 mil
3. the blind side 25 mil
4. planet 51 14 mil
5. a christmas carol 12 mil
6. men who stare at goats 4 mil
7. precious 3.3 mil
8. this is it 2.8 mil
9. the fourth kind 1.5 mil
10. couples retreat 1.2 mil

something in my head is saying that new moon will deliver super uber pwnage. i couldn't care less about this overrated fad of a franchise, but it will do gangbusters then fall hard afterwards like the first one, that much is certain. 2012 will have a solid hold from this weekend's big success. blind side will do decently and should be one of the rare "true story" movies to do well. planet 51 looks decent enough, but will have to settle for 4th place. xmas carol will continue it's decent holiday run. everything else...you can imagine.

[Bourne101]

Predictions for the Weekend of November 20th-22nd

1. The Twilight Saga: New Moon- $115 million
2. 2012- $28 million
3. The Blind Side- $17 million
4. A Christmas Carol- $16 million
5. Precious- $11 million
6. Planet 51- $10 million
7. The Men Who Stare at Goats- $3.5 million
8. Couples Retreat- $3 million
9. Michael Jackson's This Is It- $2.75 million
10. The Fourth Kind- $2.5 million

There's no question as to which film will take the top spot. New Moon is going to be huge whether we like it or not. 2012 should take the #2 spot, and should lose around 55-60% of its audience. A Christmas Carol should continue to hold up well. I don't know how much Precious is expanding, but I've heard it is getting a solid expansion next weekend. Look for it make double digits next weekend (I'll post my prediction for it once I know the theatre count). The Blind Side will probably do alright. There's been quite a bit of advertising and these types of films usually end up doing decently. I don't even know what the fuck Planet 51 is, but it's playing in 2600 theatres so it should make the top 10.

[Bourne101]

Predictions for the Weekend of November 27th-29th

1. The Twilight Saga: New Moon- $53 million ($73 million 5-Day)
2. Old Dogs- $30 million ($45 million 5-Day)
3. The Blind Side- $22 million ($34 million 5-Day)
4. 2012- $15 million ($21.5 million 5-Day)
5. A Christmas Carol- $14.5 million ($21 million 5-Day)
6. Ninja Assassin- $12 million ($18 million 5-Day)
7. Precious- $10.5 million ($16 million 5-Day)
8. The Fantastic Mr. Fox- $10 million ($15.5 million 5-Day)
9. Planet 51- $9 million ($13.5 million 5-Day)
10. The Road- $2.25 million ($3.5 million 5-Day)

New Moon should take the top spot with around a 60% drop from last weekend (similar to the first entry in the series). Old Dogs should take the #2 spot with around $30 million (give or take $5 million). The Blind Side should have a solid hold. 2012 should have a stronger hold this weekend than it did last weekend. A Christmas Carol should actually increase this weekend from last weekend (similar pattern occurred with The Polar Express). Ninja Assassin should have an OK opening, but it doesn't seem like a film that people are going to be rushing out to see on Thanksgiving weekend. Precious should make about the same this weekend as it did last weekend. Its theatre count is increasing a bit, but not a ton. The Fantastic Mr. Fox is expanding to 2000+ theatres, and with an expected solid PTA, it should make around $10 million, maybe more. Planet 51 should hold up pretty well. I was going to put The Men Who Stare at Goats at #10, but that would only have been around $1.5 million. The Road, although in a limited release, is still in 111 theatres. Even with a $15,000 PTA it would still beat $1.5 million, and I expect its PTA might even be higher than $15,000.

[Bourne101]

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[Bourne101]

Predictions for the Weekend of December 4th-6th

1. The Blind Side- $23 million
2. The Twilight Saga: New Moon- $18 million
3. Everybody's Fine- $12 million
4. Brothers- $10 million
5. 2012- $9.5 million
6. A Christmas Carol- $9 million
7. Old Dogs- $8.5 million
8. Armored- $7 million
9. Ninja Assassin- $6.5 million
10. Planet 51- $5.5 million

Should be a slow weekend next weekend. The Blind Side will probably take the top spot. New Moon should have another big drop. Everybody's Fine should do alright. Brothers should also do OK, but its theatre count is only 2000. Armored will probably not do very well, and it's only in 1900 theatres. I don't know how much Precious or The Road are expanding next weekend, but if they have significant theatre count changes I'll be back to change my predictions.

[Bourne101]

Predictions for the Weekend of December 11th-13th

1. The Princess and the Frog- $30 million
2. Invictus- $22 million
3. The Blind Side- $13 million
4. The Twilight Saga: New Moon- $7.5 million
5. Brothers- $6.25 million
6. A Christmas Carol- $5 million
7. Old Dogs- $3.5 million
8. 2012- $3.25 million
9. Armored- $3.25 million
10. Ninja Assassin- $2.5 million

The Princess and the Frog should take the weekend since it is expanding to 3300+ theatres. Invictus should take the #2 spot. It's opening in 2150+ theatres, and I expect it will have around a $10,000 PTA. The Blind Side should have another strong weekend. Twilight should continue to fall. I expect Brothers may hold up decently since the WOM seems to be pretty solid.

[Bourne101]

Predictions for the Weekend of December 18th-20th

1. Avatar- $70 million
2. The Princess and the Frog- $14.5 million
3. The Blind Side- $11.25 million
4. Did You Hear About the Morgans?- $9 million
5. Invictus- $6 million
6. A Christmas Carol- $5.75 million
7. The Twilight Saga: New Moon- $4 million
8. Up in the Air- $3.5 million
9. Brothers- $3.25 million
10. Old Dogs- $3 million

Up in the Air's prediction may change depending on what the theatre count ends up being.

[ericdraven]

Avatar - 85 million

[samwee9]

all you can watch online here http://www.movlot.com/

[Bourne101]

Predictions for the Weekend of December 25th-27th

1. Avatar- $55 million
2. Sherlock Holmes- $50 million
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel- $45 million
4. It's Complicated- $25 million
5. Up in the Air- $15 million
6. The Princess and the Frog- $11 million
7. The Blind Side- $10 million
8. Nine- $9 million
9. Did You Hear About the Morgans?- $5 million
10. The Twilight Saga: New Moon- $3 million

This is going to be an insanely massive weekend at the box-office. Avatar should take the top spot again and may even make more than I am predicting. Sherlock Holmes should come in at #2, and The Squeakquel at #3. It's Complicated should also put up some good numbers. Up in the Air doesn't have as wide of a release as some of the other wide releases, but the word of mouth, Oscar buzz and star power should help it put up some solid numbers. Nine should do alright, but it's only in 1500 theatres I believe, so it won't be huge or anything.

[Bourne101]

Predictions for the Weekend of January 1st-3rd

1. Avatar- $60 million
2. Sherlock Holmes- $45 million
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel- $38 million
4. It's Complicated- $16.5 million
5. Up in the Air- $10 million
6. The Blind Side- $8.5 million
7. The Princess and the Frog- $6.5 million
8. Nine- $4.75 million
9. Did You Hear About the Morgans?- $3.75 million
10. Invictus- $4 million

The order should be the same as this past weekend, with everything having a very small drop.

[BakeTheMooCow]

That's weird that there are no wide releases for the Jan 1 - 3 weekend.

[Erroneous]

I don't see why Mr Borne won't be 100% correct. What Avatar is doing is pretty amazing considering the massive snow storms that have been killing the many northern states for the last couple weekends. My 60 year old mom saw Avatar and loves it. The last movie she saw and liked like this was The Dark Knight. I am predicting Avatar will beat out The Dark Knight in total gross.

[Bourne101]

Predictions for the Weekend of January 8th-10th

1. Avatar- $45 million
2. Sherlock Holmes- $20 million
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel- $19 million
4. Daybreakers- $15 million
5. It's Complicated- $11.5 million
6. Leap Year- $10 million
7. Up in the Air- $9 million
8. The Blind Side- $8 million
9. Youth in Revolt- $6.25 million
10. The Princess and the Frog- $6 million

This is the weekend where everything usually takes a bit of a tumble after the strong holds over the Christmas break. Who the fuck knows what Avatar will do though. I wouldn't be surprised if it made another $70 million, lol. Daybreakers should probably attract the most audience out of the newcomers. Leap Year should do OK. Youth in Revolt is actually getting some pretty good reviews, but the R rating and the fact that it is only in 2000 theatres does not bode well for it. I think Up in the Air will probably have the strongest hold of any film in the top 10. Will The Blind Side finally fuck off?

[dellamorte dellamore]

I think Avatar keeps on chugging, the fact that kids are back in school won't affect the weekend numbers, they are off on the weekend, unless they are in Japan, i think they go all year round.

It should snatch another 60 mil.

Not sure what Daybreakers will do, it seems to be garnering some excellent buzz, could be a surprise, Zombieland numbers maybe? 26 mil

[dellamorte dellamore]

double post

[Erroneous]

This is the make or break weekend for Avatar. We should learn a lot if it will have the legs to challenge for $600 million or not. Anything over $41 and it has a shot.

I like to be bold, so I predict 17 fri 20 sat 13 sun $50 bitches!!!!

[Macphist0]

It won't get near Titanic in the slightest, it'll struggle to get to TDK in domestic box office, but that doesn't matter really. I expect it'll stop at about 1.35b worldwide.

[kru3ger]

It's only 200 mill away from reaching that. It's funny cause from when this came out everyone said "it won't get to this point" and then it did then they said "well it will stop here" and it didn't. I don't expect it to beat Titanic but I wouldn't be surprised. It will pass the 1.35b mark though.

[Erroneous]

Originally Posted by Erroneous

This is the make or break weekend for Avatar. We should learn a lot if it will have the legs to challenge for $600 million or not. Anything over $41 and it has a shot.

I like to be bold, so I predict 17 fri 20 sat 13 sun $50 bitches!!!!

SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO close Ests Fri $13.27 Sat $21.25 Sun $14 Total $48.50 Hope for a better sunday final numbers.

[ericdraven]

Book Of Eli - 35 million
The Spy Next Door - 10 million

[Erroneous]

Originally Posted by Erroneous

This is the make or break weekend for Avatar. We should learn a lot if it will have the legs to challenge for $600 million or not. Anything over $41 and it has a shot.

I like to be bold, so I predict 17 fri 20 sat 13 sun $50 bitches!!!!

Actuals $50.3 for the 4th weekend for Avatar. I take a bow, look around and no one cares. At least, I make myself happy.

$645 or bust, baby!!!!


OH yeah, Transformers 3 will be in 3 D. You can bet the house on it.

[dellamorte dellamore]

I think 700 mil is a possibility now, no joke, should come close or break the 500 mil mark after next weekend, and that's only after a month. It could make 15 mil a weekend for the whole of next month and it would cross 600 mil, but we know it will do better, i'm just laying out a worst case scenario which won't happen. If it averages 20 mil a weekend in Feb, it would cross it with ease, and we know that's not happening either. 700 mil is a genuine possibility right now, because 600 is a given. I'll just go on record now and say, it will reach 700 mil domestic

Let's say it's at 500 mil after next weekend. Now for Feb, 35, 28, 20, 17, then the numbers during the week.

The writing is on the wall and it's as plain as day, Titanic is going to get sunk by Avatar, does that mean Cam beat himself.

I said it before, i would rather have this movie at number one than a cheesy , overblown love story, even though i would still want Rotk ahead of any of them

[Bourne101]

Predictions for the 3-Day Weekend of January 15th-17th

1. Avatar- $40 million
2. The Book of Eli- $25 million
3. The Lovely Bones- $15 million
4. The Spy Next Door- $14 million
5. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel- $11 million
6. Sherlock Holmes- $10.5 million
7. Daybreakers- $7.75 million
8. It's Complicated- $7.25 million
9. Leap Year- $5.5 million
10. Up in the Air- $5.25 million

Predictions for the 4-Day Weekend of January 15th-18th

1. Avatar- $50 million
2. The Book of Eli- $30 million
3. The Lovely Bones- $20 million
4. The Spy Next Door- $18 million
5. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel- $14.25 million
6. Sherlock Holmes- $13.5 million
7. Daybreakers- $9 million
8. It's Complicated- $8.5 million
9. Leap Year- $6.5 million
10. Up in the Air- $6.25 million

[Erroneous]

Avatar I see a 30% drop over last weekend, even with the holiday (Why am I not off?) $35 and $41 for the whole 4 days.

The Book of Eli and The Lovely Bones are really hard to predict. I don't think either one has any real mass appeal to them. Denzel really does not have as much draw as he gets credit for. He is sim to J Lo. $25 and $30 are really good estimates. I would not be surprised if it was more like $20 and $24.

Bones $15 and $20 are also really good ests. I will go lower at $13 and $16

[Bourne101]

Predictions for the Weekend of January 22nd-24th

1. Avatar- $32 million
2. The Tooth Fairy- $22 million
3. The Book of Eli- $15 million
4. The Lovely Bones- $11 million
5. Extraordinary Measures- $10 million
6. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel- $8.25 million
7. Legion- $8 million
8. Sherlock Holmes- $6.5 million
9. It's Complicated- $5.5 million
10. The Spy Next Door- $5 million

Avatar should take the #1 spot, pending The Tooth Fairy doesn't pull some crazy shit. The Tooth Fairy should take the #2 spot, thought it could make more or less than I've predicted. The Book of Eli should drop around 50%. The Lovely Bones may have a decent hold. Extraordinary Measures should put up OK numbers. The Squeakquel, Holmes and It's Complicated should continue to roll. Legion will bomb.

[Erroneous]

Originally Posted by Bourne101

Predictions for the Weekend of January 22nd-24th

1. Avatar- $32 million
2. The Tooth Fairy- $22 million
3. The Book of Eli- $15 million
4. The Lovely Bones- $11 million
5. Extraordinary Measures- $10 million
6. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel- $8.25 million
7. Legion- $8 million
8. Sherlock Holmes- $6.5 million
9. It's Complicated- $5.5 million
10. The Spy Next Door- $5 million

Avatar should take the #1 spot, pending The Tooth Fairy doesn't pull some crazy shit. The Tooth Fairy should take the #2 spot, thought it could make more or less than I've predicted. The Book of Eli should drop around 50%. The Lovely Bones may have a decent hold. Extraordinary Measures should put up OK numbers. The Squeakquel, Holmes and It's Complicated should continue to roll. Legion will bomb.

Borne, you are the best. How can you predict $22 mil for The Tooth Fairy? Who in their right minds would pay to see this movie? The Rock in a tutu?

I think Avatar will actually increase next weekend over last weekend. It is not supposed to happen, but since we are living in the end of days......... why can't just make more every where instead of less? I think their should be a person in front of every theater where Tooth Fairy and Avatar are playing together and make every human wanting to pay money for tooth go see Avatar. I don't care if you have seen Avatar 10 times already, how can anyone pay to see The Tooth Fairy? Mad times my friends

[Bourne101]

Originally Posted by Erroneous

Who in their right minds would pay to see this movie?

Sadly, the poor parents who get dragged to it by their kids. It was right around this time last year that Paul Blart: Mall Cop became a phenomenon.

[Erroneous]

Originally Posted by Bourne101

Sadly, the poor parents who get dragged to it by their kids. It was right around this time last year that Paul Blart: Mall Cop became a phenomenon.

Parents need to be parents and not waste their money like that.

[Bourne101]

Predictions for the Weekend of January 29th-31st

1. Avatar- $30 million
2. Edge of Darkness- $25 million
3. The Book of Eli- $10.25 million
4. When in Rome- $10 million
5. The Tooth Fairy- $8 million
6. The Lovely Bones- $5.5 million
7. Legion- $5.25 million
8. Sherlock Holmes- $5 million
9. It's Complicated- $4.5 million
10. Alvin and the Chipmunk: The Squeakquel- $4.25 million

It's going to be between Avatar and Edge of Darkness next weekend. At the rate Avatar is going, it should make another $30 million next weekend, whereas I think Edge will pull in around $25 million. The Book of Eli should have another solid weekend. When in Rome probably won't do all that well since it looks terrible and is only in 2200 theatres, but it might surprise me and pull in low-mid teen numbers. Legion is going to drop like a rock.