#1  
Old 02-20-2012, 12:13 PM
Summer 2012 Box-Office Predictions

I realize it's a bit early for this, but what the hell...

The Avengers- $400 million
Dark Shadows- $100 million
The Dictator- $80 million
Battleship- $200 million
Men in Black III- $170 million
Snow White and the Huntsman- $110 million
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted- $160 million
Prometheus- $150 million
Rock of Ages- $75 million
That's My Boy- $100 million
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter- $40 million
Brave- $190 million
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World- $70 million
The Amazing Spider-Man- $260 million
Savages- $40 million
Ice Age: Continental Drift- $180 million
Ted- $70 million
The Dark Knight Rises- $600 million
Neighborhood Watch- $120 million
The Bourne Legacy- $120 million
Total Recall- $80 million
The Campaign- $90 million
The Expendables 2- $130 million
ParaNorman- $50 million
Premium Rush- $45 million
The Wettest County- $50 million

Last edited by Bourne101; 05-30-2012 at 04:03 PM..
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  #2  
Old 02-20-2012, 05:07 PM
I'm very interested in what the Avengers turns up. I want to see how well I'm feeling the pulse of this. I know it will do well, but I would be surprised if it does that well (unless it's a terrific movie that turns out better response than the individual super heroes of its ensemble). Individually, Captain America, Thor, Hulk and Iron Man were all successes, but only iron man turned out to be the blockbuster. And nothing like this had happened in the movies before. I wish the movie could have come out after Thor and Captain America had sequels, so their names became more prominent and the event became more of an Event outside the comic book crowd, but I understand the difficulty in getting too elaborate with movies- they have to juggle contracts, actors, age, everything.

But I'm really, really interested to see how it pans out. Even though I'm not much more marvel super hero movies these days.
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  #3  
Old 02-20-2012, 07:00 PM
Anybody have a link to the 2011 version? I never checked how I did, and when I have time I'll put my estimates up for 2012.
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  #4  
Old 02-20-2012, 08:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AspectRatio1986 View Post
Anybody have a link to the 2011 version? I never checked how I did, and when I have time I'll put my estimates up for 2012.
here you go man http://www.joblo.com/forums/showthre...er+predictions
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  #5  
Old 02-20-2012, 09:41 PM
I think Battleship is gonna tank.
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  #6  
Old 02-20-2012, 11:10 PM
The Avengers- $400-450 million
Dark Shadows- $120 million
The Dictator- $130 million
Battleship- $180 million
Men in Black III- $220 million
Snow White and the Huntsman- $140 million
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted- $170 million
Prometheus- $110 million
Rock of Ages- $60 million
That's My Boy- $100 million
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter- $30 million
Brave- $280 million
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World- $40 million
G.I. Joe: Retaliation- $170 million
The Amazing Spider-Man- $250 million
Ice Age: Continental Drift- $185 million
Ted- $80 million
The Dark Knight Rises- $600 million
Neighborhood Watch- $110 million
The Bourne Legacy- $150 million
Total Recall- $100 million
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  #7  
Old 02-21-2012, 11:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
I think Battleship is gonna tank.
Agreed. I don't see it making back its 200 million dollar budget (at least not domestically)

As for The Dark Knight Rises, I completely agree with you guys that it will hit 600 million (especially when you add in all the IMAX ticket sales)

I'm curious how you guys think John Carter will do. Its coming out soon and I haven't really heard any hype about it. Plus it looks pretty goofy which doesn't help it much.
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  #8  
Old 02-21-2012, 11:51 AM
I thought about the possibility of Battleship absolutely tanking, but then I watched the trailer again and I don't think America can resist the onslaught of Bay-esque random explosions. It wouldn't surprise me if it tanked, but at this point I think it makes $200+ million. The release date could be an issue though. It's squeezed in between The Avengers and Men in Black III.
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  #9  
Old 02-21-2012, 11:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by echo_bravo View Post
As for The Dark Knight Rises, I completely agree with you guys that it will hit 600 million (especially when you add in all the IMAX ticket sales)
Definitely. Some have argued that the Ledger death is what boosted The Dark Knight's grosses so much, and while that may have been a factor, the fact of the matter is that people loved that movie and went to see it multiple times. I'm banking on Rises setting the opening weekend record, topping Potter's $169 million.
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  #10  
Old 02-21-2012, 12:46 PM
Dark Knight won't hit $500 mill let alone $600 mill. It might even come in under $400 mill. Ledger was THE reason the last one did so well. He was THE only thing that made it an above average movie. Without Ledger's Joker, its another Batman Begins.

Who is the Villain this time, Bane???? Sure, all the fan boy's are creaming the jeans but 90% of America has no idea who the fuck Bane even is. I certainly never fucking heard of him. Bottom line, Joker sells tickets because he is an icon. Bane is NOBODY to most Americans.

Also, I think you are all underestimating Prometheus and MIB III. Ridley Scott's Alien is the stuff of legend and selling Prometheus as a prequel will get butts in the seats. That thing does $250 mill easy and will cross $300 mill if its really good. Same goes for Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones and their characters, true pop culture icons. That one probably goes over $300 mill so long as its good and has a little word of mouth. If it is shit, like MIB II, then I agree it will be under $200 mill.
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  #11  
Old 02-21-2012, 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rustysyringe View Post
Dark Knight won't hit $500 mill let alone $600 mill. It might even come in under $400 mill. Ledger was THE reason the last one did so well. He was THE only thing that made it an above average movie. Without Ledger's Joker, its another Batman Begins.
It will hit $500 million, easily.

Batman Begins made $205 million after a $48 million opening. People didn't initially come out to see it because the last thing they got from the Batman universe was Batman & Robin. WOM on Begins and subsequent massive DVD sales for it are a big reason why TDK did so well. Ledger was a factor, but the guy wasn't a massive star or box-office draw throughout his career. I'm pretty sure Brokeback was his biggest hit with only $83 million, and it mostly made that because of controversy, Oscar buzz and because people dug the film.

I will agree with you about the Joker being more popular than Bane, but I don't think that is going to be a huge indicator of the film's success. People that loved The Dark Knight (and that's a lot of people) aren't going to ditch this entry simply because the Joker isn't in it.
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  #12  
Old 02-21-2012, 01:58 PM
Bourne, do you really think The Dictator will hit 100 million? I'm not saying it doesn't have a chance, but Bruno topped out at 60 million and didn't really have the best legs. Borat may have been an anomaly for SBC, box office wise.
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  #13  
Old 02-21-2012, 02:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Ledger was a factor, but the guy wasn't a massive star or box-office draw throughout his career
TDK took off because two things happened, a) Ledger died of the overdose and b) everyone heaped praise on him (deserved but a little overdone) for such a great character. I think much of it was sympathy (especially the Oscar). I think he did a great job but not to the extent of the praise he got. But that's neither here nor there, the two above mentioned reasons are why the movie did so well. Remove Ledger from the equation it is another Batman Begins. Or have someone else play the Joker who doesn't nail it like he did and the movie only hits $300 mill.

The new ones got no shot at $500 mill with Bane as the villain unless he gets huge WOM like Ledger did. Don't see that happening. The trailer I saw he was nowhere near as interesting a character as Ledger's Joker was. Who is playing Bane anyway?
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  #14  
Old 02-21-2012, 03:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Definitely. Some have argued that the Ledger death is what boosted The Dark Knight's grosses so much, and while that may have been a factor, the fact of the matter is that people loved that movie and went to see it multiple times. I'm banking on Rises setting the opening weekend record, topping Potter's $169 million.
Definitely agree that this has the potential to beat Potter's record. As the others said I definitely agree TDKR, will make easily over 500 million, I have friends and people I know excited for this movie who don't follow movie news and aren't cinephiles. I have heard a ton of people saying they will be there opening day and it is only February. I think that it will easily go over 500 million maybe over 600 depending on WOM.

I doubt Battleship will tank, the similarity to Transformers will definitely boost it in my opinion. I hope John Carter doesn't fail, but its not looking to hot right now from what I have seen.

I think The Avengers might do better than 400 million, just a hunch but who knows.
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  #15  
Old 02-21-2012, 04:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lazy Boy View Post
Bourne, do you really think The Dictator will hit 100 million? I'm not saying it doesn't have a chance, but Bruno topped out at 60 million and didn't really have the best legs. Borat may have been an anomaly for SBC, box office wise.
I think what it comes down to with Bruno is that the audience who went to see it wasn't so different from the homophobic cage match audience at the end of the movie.

I don't know, it could go under, but it seems to be more along the lines of Borat and the trailer seems to get huge laughs at the theatre. As long as there aren't too many dick shots, I think America might go for it.
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  #16  
Old 03-19-2012, 02:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemovies View Post
I think Battleship is gonna tank.
If this movie came out before Transformers, it would have been a big summer movie. It just looks way too much like the last one, Dark Of The Moon. Now I loved the Transformers movies......all of them, but it's been done before. Its been already going around the net that Battleship looks too much likes Transformers, and will hurt the film. I say it tanks as well. It's sad because i'm a fan of Peter Berg.
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  #17  
Old 03-19-2012, 04:29 AM
I'm actually not sure about Battleship anymore. I thought before it might tank, now who knows. It does look generic as hell, but I would be lying if I didn't say a part of me thinks it looks kind of cool.

Plus, Peter Berg is a better filmmaker than Michael Bay, so hopefully we won't have to deal with all the shaky cam and quickcuts that Bay loved to do so much in the Transformers movies.

It looks pretty spectacular. A real fireworks display. The only thing that always bothers me about the trailer is that creepy Asian kid!
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  #18  
Old 03-19-2012, 09:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rustysyringe View Post
TDK took off because two things happened, a) Ledger died of the overdose and b) everyone heaped praise on him (deserved but a little overdone) for such a great character. I think much of it was sympathy (especially the Oscar). I think he did a great job but not to the extent of the praise he got. But that's neither here nor there, the two above mentioned reasons are why the movie did so well. Remove Ledger from the equation it is another Batman Begins. Or have someone else play the Joker who doesn't nail it like he did and the movie only hits $300 mill.

The new ones got no shot at $500 mill with Bane as the villain unless he gets huge WOM like Ledger did. Don't see that happening. The trailer I saw he was nowhere near as interesting a character as Ledger's Joker was. Who is playing Bane anyway?
I strongly disagree with this. The Dark Knight did well and had strong legs because people loved the film. You can attribute the opening weekend to Ledger curiosity if you want, but if people didn't like the film it would not have kept doing well.

People love Nolan and his Bat universe. Period. TDKR will be a huge hit and will very likely reach 500 million, if not more. It's not about the villain. It's about Batman and seeing how the story concludes. It will be huge.


Otherwise:
The Avengers- $420 million
Dark Shadows- $150 million
The Dictator- $60 million
Battleship- $180 million
Men in Black III- $150 million
Snow White and the Huntsman- $150 million
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted- $175 million
Prometheus- $190 million
Rock of Ages- $100 million
That's My Boy- $80 million
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter- $60 million
Brave- $180 million
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World- $75 million
G.I. Joe: Retaliation- $150 million
The Amazing Spider-Man- $250 million
Savages- $30 million
Ice Age: Continental Drift- $190 million
Ted- $50million
The Dark Knight Rises- $550 million
Neighborhood Watch- $140 million
The Bourne Legacy- $110 million
Total Recall- $60 million
Rivals- $50 million
The Expendables 2- $90 million
ParaNorman- $45 million
Premium Rush- $50 million
The Wettest County- $60 million

Some of these have to end up tanking, but I'm not sure which yet beyond Abraham Lincoln.

Last edited by SpikeDurden; 03-19-2012 at 09:53 AM..
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  #19  
Old 03-19-2012, 06:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpikeDurden View Post
I strongly disagree with this. The Dark Knight did well and had strong legs because people loved the film. You can attribute the opening weekend to Ledger curiosity if you want, but if people didn't like the film it would not have kept doing well.
Very true and the reason people loved the film is Heath Ledger. His character was the best since Jack did the Joker. And there is no doubt that the Joker is an American icon and draws people. Bane, no one even knows who he is.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpikeDurden View Post
People love Nolan and his Bat universe. Period.
Also very true, Batman sells. There is no doubt about that. It is almost impossible to flop with Batman, Spider man, or Superman as all 3 are huge icons. I am not saying it will flop I am just saying it won't hit $500 mill. Remember, Batman Begins only did $350 mill.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpikeDurden View Post
TDKR will be a huge hit and will very likely reach 500 million, if not more. It's not about the villain. It's about Batman and seeing how the story concludes. It will be huge.
It will be a huge hit, undoubtedly the top money maker of the year. That is a given going in and I never said it wouldn't. Again, I merely said it wouldn't hit $500 mill. For it to do that it has to have magic, like Ledgers Joker. It has to have a character that people identify with (Bane, seriously?) and that gets a lot of buzz. Ledger's Joker didn't just create a weekend of buzz. It built up over time. Then the Oscar talk started. People talked about that performance as the best of the year all the way from just before the release through the end of the year. To say the buzz was only opening weekend is clearly revisionist history.

If the film gets a ton of buzz, and not the normal buzz I am talking "best action film ever" type buzz, that could do it too. But TDK is not even the best action film ever so I doubt Nolan's got it in him for that.
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  #20  
Old 03-19-2012, 06:19 PM
i think Snow White and The huntsman is gonna be a huge hit

every trailer so far has been freaking awesome and it can appeal to young girls and boys as well as adults

what little kid especially young girls dont love fairy tales

but also the story looks much more adult and mature and gritty that it appeals to that LOTR fantasy/action/adventure crowd

visually it looks amazing and the action looks good

and charlize as the villain looks great

a great cast all around

we got THOR
2 time Oscar nominee and Winner Charlize Theron
And the ever popular Kristen Stewart
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  #21  
Old 04-24-2012, 10:55 PM
Well, ten days until kick off so it's time to pick...

The Avengers- $411 million
Dark Shadows- $69 million
The Dictator- $41 million
Battleship- $121 million
What to Expect When You're Expecting- $56 million
Men in Black III- $189 million
Snow White and the Huntsman- $179 million
Prometheus- $185 million
Rock of Ages- $112 million
That's My Boy- $133 million
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter- $49 million
Brave- $285 million
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World- $79 million
G.I. Joe: Retaliation- $150 million
Magic Mike- $27 million
The Amazing Spider-Man- $255 million
Savages- $49 million
Ted- $75 million
The Dark Knight Rises- $494 million
Neighborhood Watch- $101 million
The Bourne Legacy- $120 million
Total Recall- $75 million
The Expendables 2- $133 million
Premium Rush- $44 million
The Wettest County/Lawless- $79 million

Summer Bombs: Savages, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter & The Dictator.

Besides Brave, I refuse to pick cartoons. I can never get a read on kiddie money.

I made my honest picks but then I looked over the list and noticed I had only superheroes breaking the 200 million mark. I'm sticking to it but if Prometheus gets good reviews it'll pick up steam and break $200 million.

I was looking for this year's Rise of The Apes on that list but just don't see it. Hunger Games may be the sole good surprise of the year. TDKR does benefit from having NO competition after it hits all through summer. Still, $500 million is a buttload to cross in these economic conditions.

Last edited by JoeChar4321; 04-24-2012 at 11:05 PM..
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  #22  
Old 04-25-2012, 03:54 AM
^spiderman imo is not gonna do well at all

it has the bad buzz of coming after spiderman 3 for 1

it has completely ZERO Hype and has been marketed pretty badly

and fandango did a top list of most anticipating summer blockbusters for men and woman

and spiderman was'nt on either
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  #23  
Old 04-25-2012, 12:23 PM
^^^
I think Spiderman is gonna make a shit ton of money cause well...its Spiderman.

I think you're right in regards to Snow White & the Huntsman being a huge hit. Kristen Stewart has a big following. I could see it making 200 million domestically.

Also, The Bourne Legacy will easily make over 100 million imo for the title alone. There will even probably be some people expecting it to have Matt Damon in it.
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  #24  
Old 04-25-2012, 03:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by echo_bravo View Post
Kristen Stewart has a big following.
Does she really, though? The Twilight films would've made bank no matter who was in the cast, and I can't recall any of her non-Twilight films making a ton of money. Her Joan Jett biopic made like $30 I think.
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  #25  
Old 04-25-2012, 03:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeChar4321 View Post
TDKR does benefit from having NO competition after it hits all through summer. Still, $500 million is a buttload to cross in these economic conditions.
Box-office has been very good so far this year (significantly higher than this point last year, I believe) and I see TDKR easily crossing $500 million. I don't see any indication that it won't. The Avengers has the buzz right now because it comes out in a week. Just wait until we get the next trailer and The Avengers has played for a couple of weekends. The buzz is going to skyrocket. Already at CinemaCon people are raving about the footage that Nolan showed them.
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  #26  
Old 04-25-2012, 04:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveyJoeG View Post
Does she really, though? The Twilight films would've made bank no matter who was in the cast, and I can't recall any of her non-Twilight films making a ton of money. Her Joan Jett biopic made like $30 I think.
well that film was an indie and only was released is 244 theaters and was rated r
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  #27  
Old 04-25-2012, 04:29 PM
Stewart is in no way a box-office draw, but Snow White should do well and her presence certainly won't hurt the movie financially.
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  #28  
Old 04-25-2012, 04:41 PM
Yeah I'm basically just going by her Twilight success/popularity.

Also according to Fandango, Snow White & The Huntsman is the most anticipated film among female movie goers.
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  #29  
Old 04-27-2012, 02:28 PM
I think Sony is going to have a disapointing summer.

People's interest in MIB 3 and Spiderman seems tepid. Colin Farrell has never been a big star and I'm not convinced people will see it for the cgi.

MIB 3 $160 Million ($130 if it turns out to be just as bad or worse than 2)

Amazing Spiderman $250m

Total Recall $50m

Premium Rush $30-50m Depends on what legs the bigger summer movies have.
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  #30  
Old 05-30-2012, 03:49 PM
Update time....

Looks like Avengers shat on everyone's prediction. MIB 3 started with almost $60 mill and has good WOM, looks like $200 mill is pretty much in the bag. The Dictator will come up short but at least it should get its budget back. Battleship looks like the biggest flop of the year.

Up next is Snow White, Prometheus, and Brave. I expect Snow White to be the loser here as Prometheus and Brave will chew up the competition.
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  #31  
Old 05-30-2012, 04:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rustysyringe View Post

Up next is Snow White, Prometheus, and Brave. I expect Snow White to be the loser here as Prometheus and Brave will chew up the competition.
Yeah, you're probably right about that.
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  #32  
Old 06-27-2012, 01:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
The Avengers- $400 million (--)
Dark Shadows- $100 million (+)
The Dictator- $80 million (+)
Battleship- $200 million (++)
Men in Black III- $170 million
Snow White and the Huntsman- $110 million (-)
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted- $160 million (-)
Prometheus- $150 million (+)
Rock of Ages- $75 million (++)
That's My Boy- $100 million (++)
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter- $40 million
Brave- $190 million
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World- $70 million (++)
I usually forget to come back to this thread, so I'll do an update now.

Bold = close (or on pace to be close)
+ = kind of over-predicted
++ = severely over-predicted
- = kind of under-predicted
-- = severely under-predicted
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  #33  
Old 10-29-2012, 02:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeChar4321 View Post
Well, ten days until kick off so it's time to pick...

The Avengers- $411 million (WAY LOW!)
Dark Shadows- $69 million
The Dictator- $41 million
Battleship- $121 million (glad to be wrong!)
What to Expect When You're Expecting- $56 million
Men in Black III- $189 million
Snow White and the Huntsman- $179 million
Prometheus- $185 million
Rock of Ages- $112 million
That's My Boy- $133 million (Cruise and Sandler sink)
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter- $49 million
Brave- $285 million
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World- $79 million
G.I. Joe: Retaliation- $150 million (N/A)
Magic Mike- $27 million (Yeow)
The Amazing Spider-Man- $255 million
Savages- $49 million
Ted- $75 million (BIG MISS)
The Dark Knight Rises- $494 million
Neighborhood Watch- $101 million
The Bourne Legacy- $120 million
Total Recall- $75 million
The Expendables 2- $133 million
Premium Rush- $44 million
The Wettest County/Lawless- $79 million

Summer Bombs: Savages, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter & The Dictator.

Besides Brave, I refuse to pick cartoons. I can never get a read on kiddie money.

I made my honest picks but then I looked over the list and noticed I had only superheroes breaking the 200 million mark. I'm sticking to it but if Prometheus gets good reviews it'll pick up steam and break $200 million.

I was looking for this year's Rise of The Apes on that list but just don't see it. Hunger Games may be the sole good surprise of the year. TDKR does benefit from having NO competition after it hits all through summer. Still, $500 million is a buttload to cross in these economic conditions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourne101 View Post
Bold = close (or on pace to be close)
No one saw Avengers taking down everything, not even a fan like me.

Pretty good picks except for dumb comedies like Ted and Magic Mike. I just can't gage that stuff.

Here are the final answers:

The Avengers- $623 million
Dark Shadows- $79 million
The Dictator- $59 million
Battleship- $65 million (ouch)
What to Expect When You're Expecting- $41 million
Men in Black III- $179 million
Snow White and the Huntsman- $155 million
Prometheus- $126 million
Rock of Ages- $38 million (ouch)
That's My Boy- $36 million (ouch)
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter- $37 million
Brave- $235 million
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World- $79 million
Magic Mike- $113 million
The Amazing Spider-Man- $262 million
Savages- $47 million
Ted- $218 million (WTF?)
The Dark Knight Rises- $446 million
Neighborhood Watch- $35 million (ouch)
The Bourne Legacy- $113 million
Total Recall- $59 million
The Expendables 2- $84 million
Premium Rush- $20 million
The Wettest County/Lawless- $37 million
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  #34  
Old 10-29-2012, 11:34 AM
Magic Mike isn't exactly a comedy. It's more of a drama...
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  #35  
Old 11-13-2012, 06:44 PM
I know this isn't going to come out until next summer but Anchorman 2 is going to be a massive comedy event just because it is going to bring out the original audience from 10 years ago and also an entire new flock of young adults who will find it just as hilarious. I am looking forward to seeing the new hilarity, this article gives details that it might be a musical ( ?! ) We will see how that goes.. hah

http://thecelebritycafe.com/feature/...-being-written
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  #36  
Old 11-14-2012, 01:21 AM
I wish next summer was here now.
I hate winter.
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