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Old 10-26-2012, 09:16 PM
Let's talk electoral college

DISCLAIMER: This thread isn't about your opinions on the candidates, their parties, etc. We'll discuss ways that Romney and Obama can win the 270+ electoral votes required to become president. This thread is for strategy talk only.

Here's a nice interactive map where you can play out different election scenarios: www.270towin.com

According to 270 to win (and Real Clear Politics too I think) the current electoral votes that are locks for Obama and Romney are:

Obama 201
Romney 191

And the swing states are:

New Hampshire (4)
Nevada (6)
Iowa (6)
Colorado (9)
Wisconsin (10)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
Michigan (16)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Florida (29)

Here are some sites that have their own polls or collect polling data:

Real Clear Politics (collects polls from various organizations and shows an overall average) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/

Gallup www.gallup.com

Rasmussen www.rasmussenreports.com

PPP Polls http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

Five Thirty Eight (Nate Silver, who correctly predicted the outcome of 49 out of 50 states in 2008, uses all relevant polling data he can find to accurately predict the outcome of the election including senate races) http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

My personal guess as of right now: Obama still has the math in his favour. MI, PA, IA, WI and OH have had Obama ahead consistently since the start of the election and Obama had a lot of excellent news coming out of Ohio today with almost every poll giving him a lead over Romney. Winning those 5 states will put him over 270.

Romney's path is a lot tougher but it's plausible. Virginia, Florida and North Carolina are looking more and more like they'll go red which would bump Romney up to 248. All he would need at that point is Ohio and one other swing state, or Wisconsin/Colorado/New Hampshire (or Iowa even but Obama already has a huge advantage there so it's not likely). Romney's gonna have a harder time than Obama when it comes to reaching 270, but it's not impossible.

Here's my current prediction (which is subject to change at any time, I'm not saying this WILL happen it's just how I currently feel things will turn out)



Does anyone know if there's a likelihood that Obama could win the EV but lose the popular vote? I haven't really paid attention to the popular vote so I don't want to make any predictions on that.
 

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